New economic imperatives are forcing nations to make a choice.

Viewpoint by Marshall Auerback

The writer is a market analyst and commentator. This article was produced by Economy for All, a project of the Independent Media Institute.

NEW YORK (IDN) COVID-19 has not only presented the global economy with its greatest public health challenge in over a century, but also likely killed off the notion of Americas unipolar moment for good. That doesnt mean full-on autarky or isolationism but, rather, enlightened selfishness, which allows for some limited cooperation. Donald Trumps ongoing threats to impose additional tariffs on a range of EU exports are exacerbating this trend as the old post-World War II ties between the two regions continue to fray.

Even the possibility of a Biden administration is unlikely to presage a reversion to the status quo ante. Regionalization and multipolarity will be the order of the day going forward.

Many will regard these developments as chiefly driven by geopolitical prerogatives. But over time, the driving engine of the process will be a combination of maturing technologies that are rewriting the laws of profitability in manufacturing and production for advanced economies. The various capacities that enabled a far-flung global supply chain and sent the economies of Asia into hyperdrive over the past 40 years have continued to mature.

The rise of China, South Korea and Japan in this period is just a phase of a larger series of advances that are now likely to become more distributed and at the same time reshuffle the geopolitical trend lines we currently experience.

The reshuffling is coming in large part because Americas historic military dominance has less relevance in a world where the new forms of competition place greater weight on access to advanced research and technologies, rather than the projection of brute military force (especially given the increasing proliferation of nuclear technologies and the rise of asymmetric warfare).

Furthermore, the lack of American manufacturing capacity has left it open to a significant loss of influence to the benefit of other regions, notably China (in Asia), and Germany (in the European Union). China in particular will likely remain both a geopolitical and economic rival to the United States for the foreseeable future, especially as it already supersedes the United States in some areas of technology (such as 5G), and is increasingly becoming the locus of economic activity in Asia. As yet, Asia is by no means a cohesive economic or strategic bloc (such as the European Union), especially given the ongoing American influence in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

But longer term, it is hard to believe that an independent democratic Japan would embrace a foreign policy stance that risks antagonizing a country of almost 1.4 billion people with nukes. According to some projections, by 2050 Japan will likely constitute about one-eighth of Chinas GDP, South Korea much less.

On the basis of that size disparity, strategic triangulation is a non-starter. Japan will no more be able to balance China than Canada today can contain the United States. It is likewise difficult to envisage Seoul continuing to have its own relations with the North being continuously subject to the vagaries of Pentagon politics in D.C. Heightening instability on the Korean peninsula is hardly in the long-term interests of either Seoul or Pyongyang.

By the same token, the idea of a broad but shallow trilateral United States-EU-Japan bloc against China is also a fantasy because the European Union, like Japan, increasingly finds its own interests clashing with those of the U.S. These tensions have manifested themselves fully in the current dispute over Huawei, Chinas largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer. The Europeans, especially Germany, may well be too invested in China to side with the United States in this particular dispute given its strong pre-existing commercial ties with the former, as Wolfgang Munchaus Eurointelligence highlights:

China is Germanys biggest trading partner. Merkel continues to seek dialoguewith China and insisted that ties with the country are of strategic importance to the EU. If this can be called a strategy it is clearly motivated by economic interests. These days, German car makers are dependent on the Chinese market,where record sales in Q2 compensated for the fallout from the pandemic in other markets, the FAZ reports.

This also applies in the specific case of Huawei, where the U.S. is spearheading an attempt to limit the Chinese companys global reach on national security grounds. Berlin in particular is seeking to balance the tensions of preserving an increasingly fraying relationship with the U.S. versus safeguarding emerging German commercial interests in China. The Merkel government is expected to make a definitive decision on Huawei by the autumn when the German parliament reconvenes; this will have significant implications for Europe as a whole, as an increasing number of EU member states are moving away from the firms 5G wares.

German political opinion remains sharply divided on the issue of Huawei. The decision is also complicated by the fact that Deutsche Telekom, a 32%-state-owned company, is the countrys largest mobile provider and already relies heavily on Huawei equipment. It has lobbied strongly against any action that would make it harder for it to roll out 5G, according to the Economist. If the Berlin government fails to follow the lead of the United Kingdom (which recently reversed an earlier decision to incorporate Huawei equipment in its growing 5G infrastructure), it will send a very powerful political signal in terms of how Germany prioritizes its long-term interests, which are no longer axiomatically tied to the U.S.

However Germany decides on Huawei, Atlanticism as a concept is largely dead in Europe. Even before the onset of the pandemic, for example, Italy had already become the first European country to join Chinas Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in response to ongoing economic stagnation. COVID-19 has, if anything, accelerated this Sinification of the Italian economy, given the ham-handed response of Brussels to the countrys plight (and which is still governed by old prevailing austerity biases). Although the tangible economic benefits of the BRI have likely been overstated, Rome-based journalist Eric Reguly has written:

The Italian government rolled out the welcome mat to Chinese President Xi Jinping in part because it is desperate for foreign investment. Italy suffers from crushing youth unemployment and never fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis. It felt it was more or less abandoned by the U.S. and the rest of the EU on the investment front. The anti-EU sentiment among Italians rose during the migrant crisis, when other countries of the bloc refused to relieve Italys migrant burden, and rose again earlier this year, when Brussels ignored Italys initial pleas for help to fight COVID-19.

It is important to note that Huawei is but a symptom of a broader EU disengagement from the U.S. Even if Huaweis role in Europes future 5G networks is minimized, the big winners will be European companies, Nokia and Ericsson, not American ones. The 5G deficiency is but one illustration of how Americas failure to prioritize a robust manufacturing sector has contributed to a loss of influence and leverage in Europe.

That in turn explains the relatively tepid response to American pressure in many European capitals. Many EU member states have made the calculation that their interests are no longer inextricably tied to those of the U.S. One also sees this in response to American threats over new Russian natural gas pipelines, which the EU is largely ignoring. Europe has outgrown the suffocating embrace of Cold War exigencies.

The one outlier might well be the United Kingdom in its post-Brexit incarnation. Via the Five Eyes intelligence coordination among the U.S., the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, it is possible that there will be a further tightening of the Anglosphere countries. Their current convergence on Huawei is one illustration of this, although Huaweis Chief Digital Officer, Michael MacDonald, concedes that the battle over 5G dominance is small fry compared to the total Digital Economy, which is generally accepted to contribute as much as 25% of the worlds gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025-26, [and] will be worth approximately $20 trillion, with 5G contributing just 0.2%. And here the U.S. has everything to play for, given its ongoing dominance through American Big Tech behemoths such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google.

As far as the U.S. itself goes, that also means a narrow but deep North America strategy (United States/Mexico/Canada), especially given the American governments increasing proclivity to view economic warfare through the prism of national security considerations (as it did during the original Cold War). Those national security calculations have changed somewhat: In a reversal of old Cold War norms, whereby the strategic importance of Japan via Americas offshore naval presence was paramount, Mexico is now being prioritized, at least in regard to manufacturing and investment flows via the new North American trade agreement.

As U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer writes in Foreign Affairs, the newly reconfigured United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement reinforces this trend by overhaul[ing] the rules of origin that govern trade in the [automobile] sector, increasing the threshold from 62.5 percent under the old NAFTA to 75 percent under the new USMCA.

These concerns are becoming bipartisan, as both parties are now tacking increasingly toward an overt form of economic nationalism.

Multipolarity need not usher in a Hobbesian-style world of eternal conflict. But as it becomes more of a reality, it signals the increasing eclipse of America as a preeminent superpower of one. Asias rise in particular simply returns the distribution of economic activity to what it was before the first industrial revolution. Thats not a bad thing, except for those rooted toward an embrace of American hegemony that must be retained at all costs, peacefully or by war.

If anything, one could argue that Americas status as the worlds sole global superpower ushered in considerably greater global instability, given the absence of any restraining counterweight, as Washington went from one unilateral war of choice to another. A Joe Biden victory in November may temporarily arrest these trends, but the die has been cast. [IDN-InDepthNews 31 July 2020].

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Even If Joe Biden Wins in a Blowout, the 'Global Economy' Is Not Coming Back - IDN InDepthNews | Analysis That Matters

I suspect that, during the dramatic news of coronavirus, few people lingered long over two recent stories. One was the report from the Red Cross that a fresh refugee and migrant crisis is building up, with long-term demographic pressures augmented by the economic distress and destitution caused by Covid-19 as it reaches the poorest people in the poorest countries. The second was an analysis of population trends, published in Lancet, predicting an implosion of numbers later this century and a marked ageing in Europe and Asia offset by many more, and younger, Africans.

In my formative years, in the 50s and 60s, the conventional wisdom was that we faced the grim prospect of a population explosion or time bomb detonated by irresistible exponential growth. The planet was fast running out of resources and food supplies would be outstripped by unsustainable demand. The dismal theories of economist Thomas Malthus were rehabilitated and given modern flavouring by the emerging environmental movement. Mass starvation could only be avoided by restrictive population policy, centring on birth control.

Some countries took these warnings seriously including Maos China with its extreme "one child" policy and, briefly, India where, under Indira Gandhis emergency, there was a campaign of mass sterilisation, not all voluntary (as also in China).

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

But the history of countries which developed economically shows that the idea of populations exploding indefinitely is absurd: rather, there was a demographic transition as countries progressed from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates via a period of continued high birth rates and low death rates.

The key factors in shortening the transition was the empowerment of women through education, and reducing child mortality. Once people thought their children had a good chance of survival, the perceived necessity to have several was reduced. This has happened even in parts of the world like Bangladesh and much of India. There has been enormous progress in development, especially in the two decades around the turn of the century, reflected in the success, until recently, in meeting the UNs Millennium Development Goals.

So, how have we got from paranoia about explosions to potential implosions? The recently publicised study suggests the planets population will peak at 9.7bn in 2064 (from 7.6bn today), so we are unlikely to experience loneliness any time soon. But by the end of the century it is predicted that some countries already experiencing population decline like Japan, Spain and Italy will have more than halved their population. China will join them as members of the less than 50 per cent club, and the population they have left will be very old.

More mainstream forecasts have the global population peaking later. But the key insight of the Lancet study is that something new is happening many societies in Europe and Asia are no longer replacing their population from one generation to the next. Female empowerment, leading to the enjoyment of worthwhile careers, is clearly a factor. So is the sheer practical difficulty of raising children in environments where the cost and availability of childcare and housing are prohibitive and jobs are precarious. Added to those is a minority but growing belief that having one child or no children contributes to saving the planet.

Even if there is some rebalancing back to larger families it is unlikely to change the fundamental conundrum of the rich world (including China), which is growing numbers of economically inactive and medically dependent older people, supported by a shrinking working population.

By contrast, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is set to treble by the end of the century. The Lancet study suggests that Nigeria will have grown to 791m people by 2100, surpassing China whose population will have shrunk to 732 million.

The army of people identified by the Red Cross as hovering on the north coast of Africa in desperate circumstances, and hoping to make a new life in Europe, is surely set to grow. They are only too anxious to give developed countries the benefit of their labour, while Western governments have been equally anxious to keep them out. A question at the heart of the identity politics which drives tough immigration policy is whether richer countries want in the long run to be ethnically diverse, youthful, and productive, or homogeneous and geriatric.

The part of the world which will find this dilemma most difficult is Asia. Japanese and Chinese societies, in particular, have a strong sense of racial identity and exclusiveness. Immigration is still a lesser issue and where it is permitted, mostly kept well out of sight (as in the Singaporean dormitories which have incubated Covid-19 with such ease). Japan appears to have consciously opted for planned senescence, and all Chinas muscle-flexing as the worlds new superpower wont conceal its fate. Both are set to be old before their time.

The US is better placed. An open, if ugly, debate about its long-term future is underway. The last two American presidents one the son of an African immigrant, the other a white nativist represent two scenarios facing the country. Trumps imaginary wall is probably the nearest he and his followers will really get to stemming the tide of diversity. Whatever the outcome of Novembers election, the US economy cannot withstand a real and prolonged closure of its borders.

In Western Europe, too, the border is permeable, like the leaky boats which try to breach it. A key turning point was German chancellor Angela Merkels decision to admit one million Syrian refugees. At the time it was damned with faint praise as courageous but foolish; now that the arrivals are being methodically, and apparently successfully, integrated the initiative seems to be a hallmark of modern Germanys strength, self-confidence and optimism.

In its weird and eccentric way, even Britain may yet follow the same script. I took Brexit to be a conscious decision to turn our backs not just on Europe but on the world. It was all about immigration, and we didnt want any more. Now, I am not so sure. Since the convulsion of the EU referendum, immigration has been mentioned by far fewer people in Ipsos MORI polls about the most important issues facing the nation. This peaked at 56 per cent in September 2015 but had fallen to 13 per cent by November 2019.

Perhaps the governments welcome for Hong Kong Chinese will prove sincere. Maybe they will open the door to South Asians and Africans who are rich in points under the new immigration system. This approach to immigration has everything to do with economic pragmatism, and nothing to do with humanitarianism. It wont help many of the people in leaky boats on the Mediterranean. But at least it leaves the door half-open to a rejuvenated population.

Read more:

The refugee and migrant crisis is getting worse. Our approach has to change if we want everyone to thrive - The Independent

It is the single largest cluster of positive cases detected on the Mediterranean island since the first case was reported on March 7. The Maltese Health Ministry said 85 of 94 rescued migrants had been tested so far. It gave no further information about their condition.

The discovery that so many of the group had COVID-19 has bolsterered concerns that a recent increase in new arrivals could undermine local efforts to eliminate the disease.

It has also sparked fresh worries over the safety of the migrants who are already putting their lives at risk on dangerous journeys across the Mediterranean.

The nationalities of the migrants has not been revealed but their dinghy is believed to have set sail from Libya.

A health ministry spokesman said: So far, the swab results of 85 of these migrants are available and 65 of these 85 migrants have tested positive.

"Migrants arriving by boat are immediately quarantined for 14 days and tested.

"The migrants who are positive will continue to be isolated and the rest will remain in quarantine and followed up."

The spokesman tried to play down fears the migrants' arrival could cause a fresh spike in cases on the island.

He said: "This group arrived in Malta together and were in contact with very few other people before they were tested."

READ MORE:Greece accused of horror coronavirus treatment as thousands detained

Malta's armed forces rescued the migrants north of Libya on Sunday and took them ashore at a military base near the capital Valletta.

A volunteer organisation, Alarm Phone, on Sunday morning said the dinghy was overcrowded and taking in water.

It said the boat was located within Malta's search-and-rescue region.

The migrants had issued a distress signal from their packed dinghy on Sunday but it took more than 30 hours for rescuers to reach them.

Non-governmental agencies have accused both Malta and Italy of deliberately slowing down rescue missions in an effort to dissuade people from putting to sea and seeking a better life in Europe.

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Shock as 65 out of 85 migrants rescued from sea test POSITIVE for COVID - Daily Express

Golden Globe and BAFTA-winning actress Sigourney Weaver (Alien, Avatar, Gorillas in the Mist) has been tapped to narrate Secrets of the Whales, a four-part event series for Nat Geo, with Oscar-winning filmmaker and National Geographic Explorer-At-Large James Cameron to serve as executive producer. The series, which chronicles the whale way way of life, is set to premiere globally on Nat Geo on Earth Day, April 22, 2021 in 172 countries and 43 languages. The project was announced Monday as part of Nat Geos virtual summer TCA press tour presentation.

From National Geographic Explorer and Photographer Brian Skerry, Secrets of the Whales chronicles the whale way of life and their challenges and triumphs in an ever-changing ocean. Filmed across three years in 24 locations, the series is a personal saga, venturing deep into the world of whales to reveal life and love from their perspective.

Per Nat Geo, Weaver guides viewers on a journey to the heart of whale culture to experience the extraordinary communication skills and intricate social structures of five different whale species. With the help of new science and technology, viewers witness whales making lifelong friendships, teaching clan heritage and traditions to their young and grieving deeply for the loss of loved ones.

Skerrys latest work will also be featured in National Geographic magazine and the National Geographic book Secrets of the Whales timed to the special.

National Geographic has long been deepening our connection to the world around us, and Im honored to team up with them to narrate this stunning series, says Weaver. Viewers get up close and personal and experience the extraordinary emotion, grace and power of these magnificent creatures. They get to know them intimately in order to ultimately realize just how like them we truly are.

Secrets of the Whales has all the elements I love new tech used for scientific inquiry, wrapped in great storytelling that visually excites and emotionally resonates, says Cameron. Im proud to work with my longtime partner, National Geographic, in showing incredible new insights into the inner world of whales, their emotion and culture. These majestic, mysterious animals continue to surprise us.

Capturing these whales on film has been one of the most rewarding experiences of my entire life, and Im thrilled to bring the complexity and beauty of these creatures right to viewers living rooms, says Skerry. It is my hope that in venturing into their world, viewers recognize themselves in these animals joy, pain, love and relationships and are as inspired by them as I am.

One of the worlds top ocean photographers, Skerry has spent more than 10,000 hours underwater, documenting uncharted territory and elucidating environmental issues, often leading to policy change.

Secrets of the Whales is produced for National Geographic by Red Rock Films. For Red Rock Films, Brian Armstrong and Shannon Malone-DeBenedictis are executive producers. For Earthship, James Cameron and Maria Wilhelm are executive producers and Kim Butts is associate producer. For National Geographic, Pamela Caragol is executive producer and Geoff Daniels is executive vice president of global unscripted entertainment for National Geographic Global Networks.

Original post:

Sigourney Weaver & James Cameron Board Secrets Of The Whales Event Series For Nat Geo TCA - Deadline

The UK is on the brink of losing the highly skilled and experienced migrant workers currently propping up the care sector. If the government does not make changes to its new points-based immigration system a major crisis could emerge. These key workers cannot be replaced by digital innovations, while UK workers are increasingly reluctant to enter into what is a low-paid and extremely stressful profession.

It is estimated that the care sector requires 520,000 additional workers before 2035 to support the UKs ageing population. The sector currently relies on migrant workers. Most migrant care workers are set to be excluded from the governments points-based immigration system, unveiled in July, because the pay is so low.

From 2021, new rules will require a minimum pay threshold of 20,480. This will effectively prevent migrant care workers and home carers from entering the UK because average pay for care workers is 16,500 per year. Low pay means that, regardless of their ability to accrue transferable points, care workers will not be eligible for visas.

Additionally, the work done by care workers and home carers does not meet the skills threshold for the new Health and Care Visa. This visa will fast track migrants in the healthcare sector, offering reduced application fees and exempting them from the Immigration Health Surcharge (624 per year from October 2020). But the new visa is only for doctors, nurses and other health professionals not care workers. Excluding care workers could potentially be disastrous.

For the past decade, approximately one in six or 83,000 of the 1.5m home care and care workers in England have been non-UK nationals. While the proportion of migrants has been stable, their countries of origin have changed. Most migrant care workers came from outside the EU until 2012, when the current minimum pay threshold of 30,000 was introduced. After 2012, EU migrants took up care work jobs because this minimum pay threshold did not apply to free movement.

Brexit will end free movement for EU care workers at the same time as the new salary threshold is applied to migrants. Currently, the sector has an 8% vacancy rate. Where will desperately needed new workers come from? Leading health bodies, care workers and home carers themselves are deeply worried about this change.

Migrant care workers are typically overqualified. Many have professional healthcare qualifications in nursing, or prior experience in the sector. Care work does not offer adequate remuneration to reflect their skills. It involves depressed wages, long hours and difficult work conditions that discourage British workers. Migrants can endure these conditions when they are able to invest their earnings in property, business and family betterment back home (where many will hope to retire).

For British workers, on the other hand, care works low wages rarely lead to better prospects. Many find themselves pushed towards the care sector when they cannot find other work. Often this push comes at a point where they have little security in their housing and personal lives. Adding to their insecurity, around one-quarter of care work is now delivered through zero-hours contracts.

With under-staffing, longer hours or truncated visits, even care workers working steady hours find themselves overwhelmed and exhausted. Research shows that staff shortages and longer hours lead to increased fatigue, irritability, and demotivation for workers and these conditions can lead to potentially dangerous mistakes.

But if migrants are blocked from taking these roles then UK residents will be expected to plug the gaps. In April, the health minister, Matt Hancock, began a recruitment drive for the sector, targeting 20-39 year-olds. Previous recruitment drives have done little to alleviate the sectors chronic labour shortages. Despite a 20% increase in advertised care roles in the first quarter of 2020, applications decreased by 17.8%. Previous drives havent affected the sectors 30% turnover rate which has risen from 23% in 2012. Data on recruitment and retention tell us these are not desirable jobs.

Current care workers report highly exploitative conditions including a lack of adequate sleeping and sanitary facilities. Precarious conditions and low pay have meant some care workers have had to use foodbanks and claim benefits. Meanwhile, in the COVID-19 pandemic, female careworkers and home carers have had the highest death rates of all occupations for women.

Jobs in the rest of the healthcare sector are being transformed. The NHS has furthered its digital first approach during the pandemic, spurred on by social distancing requirements, through NHSX its new digital branch, which was formed in April 2019. With annual investment of more than 1bn, NHSX claims to be the largest digital health and social care transformation programme in the world. But the video/telephone/email consultations that are proving effective for other patient and staff groups will be slow to come to care work. Though these technologies can lower costs in other health settings, the feeding, cleaning and personal care which comprises care work cannot be digitised.

Devaluing care and labelling care workers unskilled has created a sense of alienation and hopeless frustration for British care workers. Long hours, low pay, intensely physical and emotionally demanding work can undermine the ability of carers to care either for themselves or others. Improvements to pay and working conditions are long overdue. But it is a change in the new immigration scheme that is needed most, if the emerging crisis is to be averted.

Huge sections of the UK community rely entirely on these un-cared for workers. A coerced and reluctant workforce will most definitely affect the quality of care the sector delivers.

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New points-based immigration system will lead to care crisis - The Conversation UK

Written by Pranav Mukul, Aashish Aryan, Prabha Raghavan, Aanchal Magazine | New Delhi | Updated: August 4, 2020 10:44:23 am Many of them are now realising that the rural economy has hit a saturation point and cannot absorb more workers.

A key bellwether of activity in the manufacturing sector slipped in July after two months of steady growth reflecting the adverse impact of localised lockdowns by states to fight the surging Covid curve. For those who lost their jobs, this fresh metric three months into the lockdown PMI falling to 46 in July from 47.2 in June is a disquieting reminder that a return to normalcy, or even a sustainable uptick, is far away.

More so for the thousands, who because of job losses or lacking a safety net if infected, moved from metros and urban industrial hubs to their hometowns and villages. Many of them are now realising that the rural economy has hit a saturation point and cannot absorb more workers.

Take Chittranjan Kushwaha.

The first in his family to hold a diploma in engineering, 30-year old Kushwaha went to Pune in 2014 and found an assembly line job with a major auto-component maker. Earning a monthly average of Rs 21,000, he was laid off in the lockdown and so returned to his family in Kushinagar, eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Opinion| Despite govt claims, migrants continue to be vulnerable and abandoned

Unlike many, Kushwaha got lucky: his diploma helped him get a job at a Common Service Centre (CSC) but at less than one third of his Pune salary.

His expenses are down as he doesnt have to pay rent but the drastic cut in income means he has to cut several corners. One big casualty: his childrens education.

After schools closed, I paid fees for a month. After that I got them de-registered. How will I pay Rs 1500 for three kids? he said.

Kushwahas case is emblematic of the crisis that has hit a majority of those who returned. Their scale is sweeping.

Official records show that of the 64 lakh migrant workers across 116 districts in six states Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha (covered under the Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan), a quarter returned to just 17 districts across these states.

The highest number of returned migrants under the scheme has been registered for Bihar, with 32 districts accounting for 23.6 lakh or 37.2 per cent of the total migrant workers covered, followed by Uttar Pradesh, with 17.47 lakh returned workers (27.5 per cent of the total) and Madhya Pradesh with 10.71 lakh workers or 16.9 per cent of the total.

Read| Rs 50,000-crore scheme to provide jobs for migrants returning home

The progress of the monsoon and a good summer sowing notwithstanding, the surge in Covid-19 case numbers in Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh is beginning to hurt the rural economy and so most of these workers are struggling to make ends meet.

The reduction in disposable income for many families comes on the top of an already increased household savings a metric that indicates people start saving more than they spend to cover themselves in situations like job losses or pay cuts, which, in turn, is an indicator of a slump in the economy.

RBI records show net financial savings went up to 7.7% of GDP in 2019-20, compared with 7.2% in 2018-19.

This improvement has occurred due to moderation in household bank borrowings being sharper than that in bank deposits, except in the fourth quarter of 2019-20 due to COVID-19 related economic disruptionsSeveral studies show that households tend to save more during a slowdown and income uncertainty, the RBI noted.

Explained| Half of 30 lakh workers who returned to UP are unskilled, MNREGA the main avenue for jobs so far

Job opportunities, few and far between, for those who have returned home are largely coming from public setups. A number of states, including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, have rolled out migrant labour employment schemes, in addition to the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA).

In all of the 116 districts covered under the Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan, the number of households availing MGNREGA work in these districts jumped to 89.83 lakh during May 86.27 per cent up from 48.22 lakh in the same month last year.

However, despite these efforts, several are still struggling to find a job.Companies such as Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, Indias biggest carmakers, have been ramping up output but are largely relying on local workers since those from UP and Bihar are yet to return.

Deepak Kumar from Dhagar in Bhiwani district is among those who has queued up at Marutis Manesar factory over the past few days. With the facility restoring output to near normal levels, Kumar and other ITI diploma-holders from nearby towns in Haryana many have prior work experience here have responded to calls to return.

My hope is that even if they keep me as a temporary employee, they should not ask me to leave soon, Kumar said. Until he got the call, he said, he was unemployed and working on a farm.

Similar is the plight of Santosh Kumar, 32, from Dinapatti village in Supaul, Bihar. He ran errands at a small aviation logistics company in Mumbai but went back to his village in May in a three-wheeler auto-rickshaw along with three other persons.

Right now there is a lockdown, how can I go back. I am relying on farming for survival in my village, he said.

When will his company resume operations is anybodys guess. While in the Centres financial package, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) were among the main intended beneficiaries, these are yet to recover from the impact.

According to a survey by CARE Ratings conducted over two weeks from June 23 to July 7, one-third of the MSMEs faced revenue losses of over 50% in the last 3 months and over 60% have been unable to pay full salaries to their staff.

Santosh said he received the cash transfer of Rs 1,000 from the government and also got Rs 300 a day during the quarantine. The ration supplies are procured by the family through his fathers ration card as he is yet to get a ration card in his name. Santosh said he would like to return whenever his employer calls him back. That call could take longer now.

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July harder than June, migrants out of work hit economic wall at home - The Indian Express

The world is being tested by the Covid-19 pandemic, described by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War. It is a health and human rights crisis on a global scale that has swept across borders, leaving no country untouched, and impacting the lives of millions, many of whom are among the most vulnerable. The human rights consequences, including those that flow from inadequate or unequal access to health care, entrenched inequalities, and the impact of devastated economies, will be felt for years to come.

In April 2020, Human Rights Watch prepared a human rights policy checklist to assist governments in developing effective, rights-respecting responses to the Covid-19 crisis.

The checklist sets out more than 40 questions to guide rights responses across a broad range of areas, including access to affordable health care; to water and sanitation; adequate housing, food and education; while ensuring the safety of those in detention; ensuring access to information; maintaining freedom of expression; closing the digital divide; ensuring emergency powers meet international standards, and addressing the needs of groups most at risk, including people living in poverty, ethnic and religious minorities, women, people with disabilities, older people, LGBT people, migrants, refugees, and children.

Because these issues cannot be addressed in the abstract, in April 2020, our published checklist illustrated the policy questions by reference to both good practices and areas of concern, recognizing that these can be neither prescriptive nor exhaustive.[1]

While some jurisdictions have ensured that states of emergency are time-limited and subject to oversight, Hungary and Cambodia, among others, have adopted state of emergency laws that give the government unlimited powers for an indefinite duration.

While some states have prioritized access to information, government officials in countries including Brazil, Burundi, China, Mexico, Myanmar, the US, and Zimbabwe have exhibited disturbing denialism about Covid-19, depriving their populations accurate information on the pandemic.

In countries including Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Egypt, and Venezuela, people have been arrested and detained for expressing their opinion about Covid-19 on social media.

Israels 13-year-long closure of Gaza means that restrictions on the import of medical supplies, and denial of transit permits for many requiring vital medical treatment outside of Gaza, is impeding the crisis response.

International law is clear that even amid a public health crisis, emergency measures taken by governments that restrict basic rights must be lawful, necessary, and proportionate. Governments should not exploit the pandemic to silence critics. By curbing information and shutting down criticism of their health policies, governments that do not respect rights put both their citizens and neighboring countries at further risk during the pandemic.

We urge the Committee to recommend to the Australian government to use this checklist to assess the human rights implications of country responses to Covid-19. Where foreign governments are violating rights as part of their Covid-19 response, we urge the Australian government to engage in consistent and principled diplomacy calling out these abuses publicly as well as privately. Consistency is key to avoid allegations of double standards or bias. Indeed, the Australian government itself should strive to meet the human rights standards in this checklist.

Covid-19: A Human Rights Checklist

Prevention and Care

Keeping the Public Informed

Providing Testing and Treatment

Protecting Doctors and Frontline Workers

Reducing Risks in Detention Facilities and Jails

Boosting Access to Water and Sanitation

Helping Across Borders

Rights-Respecting Crisis Management

Using Emergency Powers and Addressing Security Force Abuse

Avoiding Sacrificing Other Rights

Addressing the Economic Fallout

Responding to the Harms of Social Distancing

Psychosocial Support

Keeping Kids Learning

Tackling Violence in the Home and Against Minorities

---------

[1] For policy examples, refer to Covid-19: A Human Rights Checklist, Human Rights Watch, April 14, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/14/covid-19-human-rights-checklist.

[2] Afghanistan: Surge in Women Jailed for Moral Crimes, Human Rights Watch news release, May 21, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/05/21/afghanistan-surge-women-jailed-moral-crimes.

[3] Erika Nguyen and Namratha Somayajula (Human Rights Watch), Access to Water Vital in Covid-19 Response, commentary, March 22, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/22/access-water-vital-covid-19-response.

[4] Joint Civil Society Statement: States Use of Digital Surveillance Technologies to Fight Pandemic Must Respect Human Rights, April 2, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/02/joint-civil-society-statement-states-use-digital-surveillance-technologies-fight.

[5] Joint Civil Society Statement: European Governments Must Ensure Safe and Timely Access to Abortion Care During the Covid-19 Pandemic, April 8, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/08/joint-civil-society-statement-european-governments-must-ensure-safe-and-timely.

[6] Covid-19 and Ending Violence Against Women and Girls, United Nations Women briefing paper, April 2020, https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/issue-brief-covid-19-and-ending-violence-against-women-and-girls-en.pdf?la=en&vs=5006.

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Submission to the Inquiry into the Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade - Human Rights Watch

Last year, PepsiCo was scouting for a suitable location for its fourth plant in India. The $67 billion beverages and snack food giant would invest Rs 500 crore to set up a unit to make its popular Lays and Doritos chips. The plant would employ 1,500 people, and bring with it associated benefits contract farming that would assure demand and improve quality and yield for farmers; business for vendors in cold chain, transportation, and so on.

After much deliberation, it zeroed in on a state that is also its largest market in India. The states network of expressways, proximity to the national capital region, an upcoming international airport and the red-carpet welcome rolled out by the state government all helped in the decision-making. Everything applications to clearances happened via a single-window digital platform called Nivesh Mitra. Within months, land was acquired, approvals sought and clearances secured. Despite the pandemic, construction is on in full swing. The MNC is pleasantly surprised that whatever was promised has been delivered.

The plant will be operational next summer. Besides the chief ministers office monitoring the progress, a direct line with the local district magistrate helps in resolving routine glitches.

This is the kind of thing one hears about businessfriendly states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh or Tamil Nadu. But PepsiCos new plant is coming up at Kosi Kalan in Mathura district in Uttar Pradesh. Our plant in UP will not only help us double our snack business over the next few years but also deepen Pepsi-Cos relationship with the states potato farmers, says Ahmed ElSheikh, president, PepsiCo India.

UP occupies a lot of mind space, but mostly for the wrong reasons. It was recently in the news because gang members of a local don with political connections gunned down eight policemen. Once the state police apprehended him, he was killed in an encounter a euphemism for custodial killing.

Right now the state is busy with the groundbreaking ceremony of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, due on Wednesday. Its the culmination of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement that started in the 1980s and propelled the rise of the BJP, now in power both at the Centre and in the state. These are what UP is often associated with the quintessential heartland cocktail of crime, unemployment, political fault lines of caste and religion, bad governance and poor socioeconomic indicators.

Ever since he came to power in 2017, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and his team of ministers and bureaucrats have been putting up a determined effort to attract invest ments into the state. Without improving the states economic prospects, they reckon, the BJP reckons, it wont be easy to retain the voters confidence. It has taken time, but the results are beginning to show.

However, in all the din around UP, Adityanaths take-no-prisoners style, unabashed Hindutva politics and the inevitable controversies, these are easy to miss.

Encouraged by the vision of the chief minister and the efforts of this investment-friendly government, ITC is progressively expanding its footprint in UP, says Chitranjan Dar, member, corporate management committee, and group head (projects), ITC Ltd. Haldirams is setting up two new plants worthRs 500 crore, employing 2,000-plus people, in the next three-four years. Fast-track process, government handholding industry and the upcoming Jewar airport and expressways have helped us decide on UP, says Sanjay Singhania, vice-president (commercial), Haldirams.

The state is fast becoming a mobile manufacturing hub. In 2018, Samsung inaugurated its worlds largest mobile factory in UP as part of its $715 million India investment plan. Many more like Vivo and Lava are following. In May-June, even as the state dealt with the pandemic and the migrant labour crisis, the important work of wooing investors didnt stop.

The states Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority (YEIDA) auctioned via video conferencing 63 acres of land for 27 industrial units, entailing investments ofRs 1,600 crore, which would create over 32,000 jobs. Its CEO Arunvir Singh is pitching UPs network of expressways and the Jewar international airport to woo investors for its upcoming industrial parks. These include a 300 acre park for small businesses, a 700 acre electronic city and a 200 acre textile park. When completed, they would create 7 lakh new jobs, he says.

In Lucknow, Minister for MSME, Investment & Export Promotion Sidharth Nath Singh is focusing on global investors. In July, he reckons, in one fortnight he would have made virtual presentations to executives in the US, UK, Russia, Thailand, Germany, South Korea and Japan, to invest in UP. Targeting those looking to derisk from China, UP has set up dedicated foreign desks for outreach helped by the Centre and embassies. Thats how the Microsoft deal happened. I got to know at a webinar that Microsoft was planning a campus in North India. I immediately reached out, says Sidharth Nath Singh.

Land parcels in Greater Noida have been sold out. The Yamuna Expressway has got a good response and 53 hectares of its Aligarh node, part of the defence corridor, have been allotted. At the UP Investors Summit 2018, 1,045 MoUs were signed, entailing investments of Rs 4.28 lakh crore. With two ground-breaking ceremonies, 34% MoUs have matured, says the minister. Numbers confirm this.

Project UptickOf late, UP has seen a robust growth of both public and private sector project investment (See chart). According to Projects Today, a tracker of projects, UPs cumulative investments funnel has doubled from Rs 4.22 lakh crore in March 2015 to Rs 8.07 lakh crore in March 2020. Its project implementation ratio a proxy for projects getting off the ground has improved from 36.86% to 43.88% during the period. Fresh annual investments grew fromRs 39,193 crore in March 2018 to Rs 52,211 crore in March 2020, even as the share of private sector grew from 29.45% to 42.18%.

UP is doing well. If this continues we may see a new UP in the next five years, says Shashikant Hegde, director, Projects Today. Since 2017, it has got some of its biggest infrastructure projects off the ground completing old ones and kicking off new. Take theRs 30,000 crore Jewar airport. First proposed in 2001, it is now on track to be ready by 2022-23. Proposals to build 12 new airports, including in Ayodhya and Varanasi, have been cleared. The Agra-Lucknow Expressway (302 km) got completed and the Rs 39,000 crore Ganga Expressway (602 km) has been kicked off.

Both Purvanchal and Bundelkhand expressways will be built on time. We are working seriously on the defence corridor project with the Aligarh node, says Awanish Awasthi, additional chief secretary (home), UP government.

Turnaround Scepticism Is this for real? Can UP actually turn a corner? Over the last month, ET Magazine spoke to at least two dozen people who are stakeholders in UPs economy, including corporate executives, businesspeople, real estate developers, representatives of industry bodies, including MSME chapters in towns like Bulandshahr, Deoria, Varanasi, Muzaffarnagar and Agra, and a number of sectoral experts, to piece together the real picture. The view is unanimous the gap between UPs image and reality as a destination for business is growing rapidly.

UP is relentlessly wooing businesses, projects and investors. There are several underlying reasons. The NDA government at the Centre deems UPs economic performance to be key to retaining its voters. Hence, it is deploying all resources political, economic, religious and financial to build a robust foundation. UP today has Indias best expressway network and it is set to only get better. Mega projects like airports and its audacious greenfield defence corridor project have been flagged off. For the first time, I am seeing this aggressiveness and dynamism in UP to woo investors. UPs defence corridor is greenfield while Tamil Nadus is brownfield. The Centre will play a critical role in directing these investments, says a defence sector expert.

Growth in Projects & Investments

Growth in Projects & Investments

All the top ministers, bureaucrats and the CM were to come to the campus in buses without their VIP bandobast. The CM led from the front, getting into the bus first. Everyone just followed, she says. For her, two things stood out the CMs clarity of thinking and determination to deliver results. Two people a minister and a senior bureaucrat recall instances of projects being stuck in Raibareli and Gorakhpur because concerned officers were delaying clearances. In his weekly review of delayed projects, Adityanath pulled up the officers, found their explanations wanting and suspended them right away. His message is clear. Such behaviour will not be tolerated, says minister Sidharth Nath Singh.

This even as the state is tweaking norms and redrafting incentive packages to woo industries like shoe manufacturing and agri-processing away from China. Suspending labour laws for three years was among them. In May, German footwear maker Von Wellx decided to move its entire production from China to UP with its partner Latric Industries.

Its CEO, Ashish Jain, says, Government support and CMs ability to make the bureaucracy move were remarkable. He has been promised that footwear will be included as part of the garment policy incentive package. His `110 crore project will set up two plants, create 10,000 jobs and will produce 3 million pairs annually.

Eliminating CrimeAccording to the National Crime Records Bureau 2018, UP has the second highest incidences of crime under IPC in the country, after Maharashtra. The state has been rightly criticised for a spate of extrajudicial killings since Adityanath came to power. The CM has made his tough line on crime quite clear.

Shortly after taking office, in 2017, Adityanath had openly said that criminals would either go to jail or be killed in police encounters. Under Adityanaths watch, 119 such killings have occurred, according to media reports. The cops have been acquitted in 74 cases where a magisterial enquiry has been completed. Many entrepreneurs and executives say the crime situation has improved, going by their experience. Pankaj Agarwal, promoter of Bindlas Duplux Ltd and head of the Muzaffarnagar chapter of the Indian Industries Association, says in the past his manager was once shot at.

THE SHIFT : The Yogi Adityanath government has rolled out a slew of initiatives-

THE SHIFT : The Yogi Adityanath government has rolled out a slew of initiatives-

Avinash Kumar, an IITian and IAS officer with stints in private sector and startups, is special secretary to the CM and oversees the platform. He was brought to Lucknow in 2017 to build a robust, user-friendly, single-window clearance digital platform to monitor all applications and approvals. Through Nivesh Mitra, CM directly monitors key projects with his Team 11 to remove hurdles, says Awasthi. (Team 11 is a group of top bureaucrats.) Today, Nivesh Mitra offers 149 services across 20 departments. In 20182020, it got 2.05 lakh applications and gave 1.63 lakh clearances.

Despite lockdown, between April 1 and July 20, 34,361 applications were filed and 28,248 clearances were issued. With timebound deadlines for bureaucrats and a transparent view of where files are stuck, the application-to-approval cycle has been smoothened. Weekly project reviews by the CM is creating a hustle culture in a sclerotic bureaucracy. Time to get the factory licence has halved from three-four weeks earlier to onetwo weeks now, says Sanjeev Agarwal, CMO of phone maker Lava International. Sunil Chaturvedi, chairman of Gainwell Commosales, recalls how pleasantly surprised he was when the electricity duty discount due to him was credited to his account without any follow-up or palm-greasing.

Perception vs Reality

But livelihood and rehabilitation of so many will not be easy for any government." MSMEs in UP are in deep crisis. From Bulandshahr to Varanasi, they are hurting and many won't survive. Says Sanjeev Arora, head, Deoria chapter (Gorakhpur), Indian Industries Association: "The government announced many pandemic schemes. We have got nothing. It is all in the air, more promises than action." Add to this the skewed development within the state.

Says Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings: "The dichotomy between east and west UP is stark. UP has to grow faster to fill the deficit." From Bundelkhand Expressway to the defence corridor, the Centre is helping UP attract investment and develop some of its most backward regions. But this is easier said than done. The top-down approach of driving change from Lucknow also has its limitations. DS Verma, executive director, Indian Industries Association, says: "Intention at the top is good. But lower and mid-level (government) machinery is rusted."

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How Yogi Adityanath is beginning to recast UP as a business friendly destination - Economic Times

The latest edition of The World This Week covers:Forthcoming elections in Sri Lanka, a migrant problem turning political in Italy, and the Second wave in Vietnam| Contributors to this edition are: Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare, Sourina Bej, Aparupa Bhattacherjee, Harini Madhusudan

Sri Lanka: Getting ready for the general elections this week, amidst the COVID-19

What happened?The General Election in Sri Lanka to form a new Parliament, which was initially scheduled for April and then postponed to June, will be finally held on 5 August 2020. Despite experiencing a second wave of the coronavirus in mid-July, the voting will take place as planned under strict health guidelines and safety measures on the scheduled date.

What is the background?First, the uncertainties surrounding the elections. After the Presidential elections in 2019 bought Gotabaya Rajapaksa to power, the opposition-controlled Parliament was dissolved in March 2020. Initially, the 16th Parliamentary election of Sri Lanka was scheduled in April. However, with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and an island-wide curfew in effect, the Election Commission postponed the elections indefinitely, despite the Presidents insistence to hold the election as scheduled. Since the constitution calls for a dissolved Parliament to be replaced within the three months, the Election Commission decided to open the polls on 20 June in order to avert a constitutional crisis. However, the election again had to be rescheduled to 5 August.

Second, a look at the contending political parties. The political party with the highest stake in this election is Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) led by the Rajapaksas. The party looks for the opportunity to consolidate power with a two-thirds majority in order to enable the newly formed government to repeal the 19th Amendment. The Opposition, on the other hand, is fractured; it is divided between the United National Party (UNP) under former Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and the newly formed Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) under the leadership of Sajith Premadasa, which is a breakaway group of UNP. This significantly weakens both parties as neither will be able to secure the required number of Parliamentary seats to challenge SLPP. Besides these parties, the Leftist party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), now reformed as an alliance named Jathika Jana Balavegaya (NPP) and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) are smaller parties, expected to secure a few seats in the upcoming poll.

Third, the election campaign during the pandemic.The campaigning for the general elections took place in a subdued manner as the Covid-19 Pandemic prevented the candidates from conducting mass rallies. Most activities were conducted through social media, advertisements and through a door to door campaigning in strict compliance with health guidelines, as the candidates tried to connect with the voters from their electorates.

What does it mean?The outcome of the election will significantly reshape the Sri Lankan political stage. While it is not certain that the SLPP will be able to secure the two-thirds majority, it is evident that the party would dominate this election. The pandemic situation favours the Rajapaksa rule where the citizens look for stability which might result in the repeal of the 19th Amendment. If the SJB manages to secure a significant number of seats over the UNP, then the newly formed party will emerge as the leading Opposition Party while the UNP will look for a change in leadership.

As indicated by the number of postal votes already cast, it is expected for the voter turnout to drop as low as 70 per cent this election, because voters seem discouraged by health restrictions, political apathy and wariness of the political system stimulated by the pandemic.

Italy: Former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini to go on trial for blocking ship carrying migrants

What happened?The Senate in on 30 July voted to lift the immunity of former interior minister and the leader of the opposition Matteo Salvini, thereby initiating a possible trial against the minister for refusing to let a ship carrying 150 migrants dock in Italy in 2019. The prosecutors initiated the charge against the minister, in Sicily. They have sought to bring accountability to Salvinis policy to illegally detain the migrants on a ship operated by a Spanish charity. The trial could start later this year in Sicily, the place where the boat eventually docked after almost three weeks at sea in 2019.

What is the background?First, Italy is in the front line of two overlapping crises- migration and pandemic.The initiation of the trial against Salvini comes at a time when the country is facing a dual crisis of incoming migrants and the pandemic. Italy has been one of the southern European countries in the front line of Europes migration crisis from 2014 to 2017, with thousands of migrants and refugees arriving by boat from Libya.In the first quarter of 2020, ever since the pandemic started, about 12,500 migrants have arrived in Italy by sea. As the migrants keep arriving, the country has an added burden of screening a larger number of people. Also, with a dozen of Bangladeshis migrants (who have arrived in Italy legally) testing positive for the virus, Italy is grappling with imposing the quarantine rules. The migrant centres are filled beyond their capacity with a risk of contagion. In order to stop the spread of the virus, the government has continued to impose strictest initial quarantine rules in the migrant centres leading many to break out. The Italian government had to deploy soldiers in one of the migrant centres in Sicily to stop the breakouts.

Second, the trial is politically motivated but first to bring to justice an anti-immigration policy.As an interior minister from 2018 to 2019, Salvini pursued an anti-immigration policy that drew both criticism and applause. While he was globally criticized for his pushback and denying entry to migrants, domestically, he had the public support who continues to view the migrant influx as a reason for an economic burden. In his tenure, Salvini refused docking rights to several ships captained by Spanish charity non-governmental organizations.

The present trial charge follows another trial he was slated to face for one of the other ships he declined entry to. The Senate, however, upheld his immunity, in that case, thereby making this case the first when Salvini will have to justify his policy in court. The Senates decision to lift Salvinis immunity this time is also because his anti-immigration policy had led to a split in the ruling coalition. As he left the government in 2019 to join the Opposition, the ruling coalition has since grappled with falling approval ratings but still remains one of the strongest political alliance in the country.

What does it mean?First, once Matini faces the trial in court, it is likely to open the debate on the sharing of the refugees and the migrants in the region between the north and the south European countries. Italy is not the only country that has followed a strong anti-immigration policy. Greece also follows a similar policy where the Coast Guard is seen restricting the rafts full of migrants coming to its shores. For the migrants, Italy and Greece are the first stops in their journey. Several looks to move to the Scandinavian or the Northern European countries and frequent breakouts have been reported where the migrants have taken to travel to Stockholm or Berlin but have been sent back to the landing countries of Italy and Greece. Italy has long wanted a dialogue over the migrant sharing, and the reason for Salvini in 2019 to continue stopping the migrants at sea is to pressurize for a deal with the EU countries to take them in.

Second, this will be the first time a populist far-right leader riding on the anti-immigrant sentiment is going to face a trial. But putting the leader on trial will definitely humanize the issue but not solve it. Around 39 per cent of the people have miffed sentiments towards the immigrants. During the pandemic, when the economy is in a recession, the immigration issue will open the social fault lines where the people will fault the migrants for being a burden on their falling economy.

Vietnam: The second wave

What happened?After a gap of three months, Vietnam has declared a high-alert due to the rising number of coronavirus cases in the country. Till date, more than 30 cases reported including in its capital Hanoi and business capital Ho Chi Minh City. On 29 July, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the Prime Minister, warned the country and stated that every city and province are at risk and warned that this new wave is stronger than the previous one.

What is the background?First, Vietnam has been revered globally as a success story. A centralized quarantine programme and an aggressive contact tracking system have been the reasons for success. During the first wave in February, Vietnam managed to keep its tally to total 450 cases, with zero fatality and none reported to be locally transmitted infections. This was commendable due to two reasons; one, Vietnam is a highly populated country with 95 million people. Second, although it shares a border with China, which has been the source country of the virus, it decided to take a risk and did not close the border unlike the rest of Chinas neighbours.

Second, the eagerness to revive the economy could have backfired. Vietnams enthusiasm and desperation to open were aided by its initial success and the need to sustain its economy. Vietnam, in June, started domestic travel, schools, and offices. Along with the opening of the job sector, the government to boost the slugging tourism industry encouraged discounts on travel and stay and also provided an incentive for people to travel. This explains the large crowd in Da Nang, a popular tourist destination of Vietnam.

Third, Vietnam is not the only country, to start the process to return to normalcy. Several other countries, even with a growing number of cases, are compelled to do so due to the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy. This could be one of the reasons for the second wave in most of the countries around the globe.

What does it mean?As the source of the new transmission is yet to be discovered, there could be several more cases in the coming days. The current total tally does not include the 18,000 are to return to Ho Chi Minh from Da Nang. Additionally, the Vietnamese scientists have said this strain of the virus is more infectious than the previous one. The government is taking necessary measures such as banning large gatherings; nevertheless, as stated by the Chairman of the city administration, the country needs to to act now and act fast.

Although the governments quick economic recovery plan is one of the primary reason for the second wave, it seems they are in denial. The wrath of the second wave is being faced by the immigrant labours working in the country. Instead of managing the tourist, the police in Da Nang and the rest of the country have been arresting illegal migrants and people suspected to be part of the human trafficking racket. This has a larger good as these rackets are to be curbed; however, this timing is not suitable. The illegal migrants in the country are desperate; additionally, the thriving construction works and packaging industry in Vietnam are also heavily dependent on them. Also, the government seems not to realize that unlike the previous time, when the virus was transmitted in the country through a traveller, this time it is a community transmission. Focusing only on the illegal migrants will not be helpful.

ALSO IN THE NEWS

South Africa: Confirmed cases reach almost half a million

South Africa has become the worlds fifth-highest infection burden. With its death toll at 8,000, South Africa recorded 193 deaths over the weekend. The number of positive cases in South Africa stands at 493,000 with a 66 per cent recovery rate- 326,171 patients recovered so far. However, South Africa reported the production of 10,000 batches of its first self-designed ventilators to cope with the increasing cases.

Hong Kong: Police arrest four and seek warrants for six, pro-democracy activists

In the context of the National Security Law, the Hong Kong police on 29 July, arrested four student protesters for creating a platform to promote the Independence of Hong Kong. On 1 August, the police issued arrest warrants, the first of its kind, against six individuals outside Hong Kong, seeking extraterritorial provision on the grounds of inciting secession and collusion with external and foreign forces.

Hong Kong: Elections postponed by a year

Citing the risks to the health of the citizens and the third-wave of the pandemic as a reason, Carrie Lam invoked emergency powers to postpone Hong Kong Legislative Council polls by a year. This announcement was made one day after the election officials in Hong Kong banned 12 pro-democracy activists from contesting in the elections. Though there was a denial of any pollical motive in the delaying of elections, many believe that the postponement has to do with the recent security law and the arrests.

Afghanistan: More than 1200 civilians killed in Afghanistan during Jan-June 2020

A UN report published on 27 July, states that there were 1,282 civilian deaths in the first half of 2020, and 2,176 wounded. The report says Taliban and Islamic State are behind 58 per cent of these attacks and the pro-government forces were responsible for 23 per cent of them. Though the numbers this year show a thirteen per cent decrease in the deaths compared to 2019, these numbers are despite heightened efforts to achieve peace in Afghanistan.

Pakistan: Government presents an ordinance on the Kulbhushan Jadhav Case

The government passed the ICJ Ordinance 2020 before the National Assembly, to allow consular access in-line with the ICJ verdict. Pakistan court announced the formation of two-member bench to hear the case and review the petition filed by the Pakistan government. The bench comprising Islamabad High Court (IHC) Chief Justice Athar Minallah and his fellow judge Justice Miangul Hassan Aurangzeb would take up the government plea on 3 August.

The United States: Set to withdraw 12,000 troops from Germany

President Trump announced the removal of 12,000 troops from Germany as a response to Germanys failure to meet NATO defence spending targets. While describing it as strategic repositioning of its forces in Europe, 6,400 troops would be sent home, and the rest would be moved to other countries such as Italy and Belgium. This move has raised concern among senior officials in Germany as well as received Opposition in the US Congress.

The United States: Americans views on China sores, according to a survey

According to a new Pew Research Centre survey, unfavourable views of China reach a new high, with the majority supporting a tougher stand on human rights. The survey conducted between 16 June and 14 July among 1,003 adults in the United States, finds that while Republicans and Democrats both have negative views of China and are critical of Beijings handling of the coronavirus, and the criticism is more prevalent among Republicans. More Americans also think the US should hold China responsible for the role it played in the outbreak of the coronavirus than think this should be overlooked in order to maintain strong bilateral economic ties.

The United States: NASA launches its Mars rover

On 30 July, NASA launched its 2020 Mars rover named Perseverance. After its successful launch from Cape Canaveral, the cold atmospheric temperatures forced the spacecraft into a safe-mode. The rover is known to carry seven instruments to explore the geology and climate. The rover also carries NASAs Ingenuity helicopter, a tiny rotorcraft that would attempt to fly in the atmosphere of the red planet.

Europe: The EU restricts exporting surveillance technology to Hong Kong

The member states agreed to a package of measures as a response to the National Security Law in Hong Kong that the bloc believes would extensively erode peoples rights and freedoms. The European Union announced export restrictions to Hong Kong of any equipment that can be used for internal repression, interception of internal communications or cyber surveillance, as measures, Germany announced that it would now treat Hong Kong like it treats mainland China.

Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare is a postgraduate scholar at the UMISARC, Pondicherry University.Sourina Bej is a Project Associate at NIAS. Aparupa Bhattacherjee and Harini Madhusudan are PhD scholars with the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS.

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The World This Week: Forthcoming elections in Sri Lanka + two other issues - TheDispatch

In the wake of Brexit, more exit signs are lighting up among European Union countries, with Italy's populists announcing the formal birth of the Italexit party.

Two days after meeting with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, Populist Italian Senator Gianluigi Paragone launched the Italexit party last Thursday, aiming at taking Italy out of the EU. The move came as the country is dealing with a migrant crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and growing economic hardship.

Professor Kemal Inat, a prominent academic from Sakarya University, pointed out the impact of the migrant crisis and growing discomfort from dominant countries like Germany on the rising Eurosceptic sentiments in Italy. "Eurosceptics in Italy think that the EU has not given sufficient support to Italy over the migrant crisis ... Leaving the EU would ease the pressure on (Italians)," Inat said.

In Europe, Italy was hit hardest by the pandemic. The country's massive production has collapsed during the pandemic as its gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to drop by about 11% this year. The countrys interior minister warned of possible social unrest this fall if businesses fail and lay off workers. While Italy was suffering from the pandemic, the EU was asked for an apology for not sufficiently helping the country at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. All of these factors have resulted in flagging faith in the EU project among Italians.

According to a survey by pollster SWG at the end of May, just 39% of Italians said they trusted the EU. Another survey conducted by Tecne in April showed that 42% of respondents said they would leave the EU; the number jumped from 26% in November 2018.

Italy has clashed with the EU over migrants stranded on boats in the Mediterranean. European countries have long been struggling to agree on how to deal with migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean. Italys government has threatened to cut funds for the EU unless other states take in boat migrants stranded in an Italian port. The country has also impeded nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and aid groups from operating rescue boats, either by refusing them entry to their ports or by impounding their vessels and placing their crews under investigation.

Inat also underscored the perception among Italians over losing their independence due to Germany's dominance in the bloc. Recalling the 2008-2009 economic crisis, Inat stated that countries like Italy need economic support from Germany as their economies have been negatively affected by the health crisis this year. Last week, Italy and the EU reached a deal to launch an economic recovery fund worth 750 billion euros ($881 billion). "Policies of countries like Germany and France would determine the future of Italy's role in the EU," Inat added.

EU's fragility

The first threat to the EU's long-time unity came with the possible withdrawal of Greece from the European single currency program following Greece's profound debt crisis. However, after three emergency bailouts and a debt-restructuring program, the Greek economy has continued to unravel and the threat of a "Grexit" is still on the agenda.

The second one was the Netherlands, one of the original founders of the EU, as the Dutch started to talk about a possible "Nexit" after the majority of people rejected an EU referendum on an association agreement between the EU and Ukraine on April 6, 2016. The vote was a heavy blow to the EU, as it showed growing disenchantment among the Dutch with the EU project. It also led the way in anti-EU sentiment, something that has become more visible in many EU countries. The leader of the far-right Dutch Freedom Party, Geert Wilders, described the result as "the beginning of the end of the EU."

Last but not least is the historical departure of the United Kingdom from the bloc. The U.K. left the EU on Jan. 31 after a slim majority voted for Brexit in a 2016 referendum, but financial firms have unfettered access to the bloc under transition arrangements that end on Dec. 31.

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EU struggles with more exit signs, this time from Italy | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah

By PTI

NEW DELHI: Tarannum (name changed) has many cut marks on her wrist, scars that constantly remind her of the several years she spent in a brothel where she was sexually exploited countless times.

"Three years of hell," she recalls.

Daughter of a fisherman from a cyclone prone area of the Sundarbans, 13-year-old Tarannum was trafficked by a local shopkeeper in 2012.

He tricked her into believing that he would get her a job asa domestic worker with a good salary.

Once in Delhi, he sold her to a woman at a brothel.

After three years, she was rescued by a local NGO with the help of police.

But even after she returned home, the trauma of the past haunted her and she turned suicidal, trying to slit her wrist multiple times.

Slowly recuperating now, Tarannum hopes no one ever goes through what she did.

Another trafficking survivor Reema (name changed) does not remember her parents.

She only faintly recalls her father.

At a very young age, a brothel owner had trafficked her and forced her into prostitution.

She was finally rescued from a brothel in Sonagachi, West Bengal, in 2013 at the age of 21 after enduring many years of sexual abuse in different cities across the country.

Both Tarannum and Reema are among thousands of children and women who get trafficked in different parts of the country every year.

This year with the outbreak of the coronavirus, activists and researchers are worried that an exponential increase in human trafficking cases will take place in the coming times.

Roop Sen, anti-trafficking researcher and gender rights activist, said it's "undeniable" that those on the margins of society are vulnerable to trafficking.

"The reasons are manifold like debt trap, closing down of factories, restaurants and retail shops, probable rise in demand of young girls and women in red light areas," he said.

According to Sen, among the steps the government can take to combat human trafficking are cash transfer support to more vulnerable families and communities, cash transfer to children and adolescents attending schools and creating safe migration services.

He further suggested that anti-human trafficking units can gather intelligence on trafficking in hotspots.

Sambhu Nanda, an activist from West Bengal who coordinates an NGO-network called Partners for Anti-Trafficking claimed that multiple reports of missing and trafficking of girls have been received in the past two months.

"Even when parents reported the cases to local police stations, the officers pleaded helpless since all their energies were focussed on COVID prevention," he said.

Pompi Banerjee, a member of NGO Sanjog, said the vulnerabilities due to the lockdown and the pandemic are essentially the susceptibilities that have existed for a long time, but at a scale where they were not highly visible issues.

"The pandemic, the lockdown, and in parts of our country devastating natural calamities (floods and cyclones) are now accentuating these vulnerabilities and have brought them out in the open, visible enoughthat they can no longer be ignored by the law enforcement and politicians," Banerjee said.

N Rammohan, anti-trafficking activist from Andhra Pradesh who runs NGO HELP, claimed that many sex workers, who are the earning members for their families especially for their children, have been driven to take loans under exorbitant interests during the lockdown period.

"The local loan sharks who are not registered under the Money Lenders' Act, especially operating in red light areas, are poaching women with adolescent girls and encouraging them to take loans under high interest. When they would be unable to repay their loans, the sex workers would be forced to prostitute their daughters," he said.

Priti Mahara, Director, Policy Research and Advocacy at CRY - Child Rights and You said separated and orphaned children are also particularly vulnerable to trafficking and other exploitation like forced begging and child labour.

"The state needs to be prepared to provide enough child care homes/facilities, improve the quality and safety standard of childcare homes, child sponsorship and foster care. There are increased chances of many children getting separated from families, becoming orphans or falling out of the safety net," she said.

She further said the government and civil society need to activate local self-governance units like panchayats to keep the records of families and children entering and exiting villages and slums to help keep track of children and expedite follow ups.

Prabhat Kumar, deputy director of child protection for NGO Save the Children said whenever there is a disaster, there is rise in trafficking cases due to the crisis that follows as it becomes easier to recruit people and send them for trafficking, forced labour or sexual exploitation.

The economic crisis, lack of enforcement mechanisms and migrant crisis might lead to rise in trafficking in the coming times, he warned.

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COVID-19: Activists warn of sharp rise in human trafficking in near future - The New Indian Express

MAIN MESSAGES

African migrants stimulate economic growth and development in areas of destination, transit and origin through their labour, skills transfer, consumption and investments. Their remittances also make significant contributions to food security, human capital, rural development and overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in areas of origin.

The impact of COVID-19 affects migrant workers disproportionally. Often precarious working conditions and overcrowded living and transport arrangements increase their vulnerability to contagion and loss of employment, threatening their health and livelihoods. Those working under informal arrangements, commonly in the agriculture sector, are largely excluded from accessing real-time reliable information, social protection, healthcare and government response measures.

Urban-to-rural return migration increases due to lockdowns and job losses in cities. This context poses challenges and opportunities in rural sectors, while many return migrants face stigmatization as potential carriers of the virus.

A 23 percent decline in remittances flow into sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as a result of economic downturns, restrictions in movement and challenges sending transfers to SSA, is expected to heavily impact the livelihoods of households and countries that rely on them for food and other basic expenditures, such as health and education.

The safe movement of workers in the agrifood system within and between countries should be facilitated, recognizing their vital contribution to food security. To this end, occupational safety and health measures should be put in place in the workplace, housing and transportation means, working visas extended, and temporary work permits conceded.

The inclusion of migrants, regardless of their work or migratory status, in COVID-19 socioeconomic impact assessments, response and recovery plans (including social protection programmes) will reduce the risk of transmission for the entire population while safeguarding the livelihoods of many households falling into poverty as a result of the pandemic. The leave no one behind approach takes a public-health dimension in addition to a human-rights one.

Coordinated, multisectoral and multilevel responses that are migrant-sensitive in their design and include the perspective of migrant associations and diaspora, in addition to responses from governments, the private sector and producer organizations, should be developed in the region to ensure sustainable policies that go beyond the crisis and build back better. Such interventions should be gender-sensitive and tailored to specific country contexts (For aglobal analysis see: FAO. 2020. Migrant workers and the COVID-19 pandemic.)

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Migrant workers and remittances in the context of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa - July 2020 - World - ReliefWeb

On March 24, when the government announced a nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus, India was served a fierce reminder that its cities are, by design, exclusionary. Millions of workers around the country were left cashless, hungry and in many instances, homeless. Many of them set out for their villages hundreds of kilometres away on foot.

Several state governments introduced measures to force desperate, unemployed migrants into shelter homes. But these measures were inadequate even as stop-gap alternatives, let alone as effective policy strategies. They not only underestimated the scale of the crisis, but strongly suggested the states unpreparedness or unwillingness in finding a more viable solution to the sudden problem of large-scale homelessness.

The approach had three main limitations. First, there just are not enough shelters anywhere, in any major city to comfortably accommodate the vast numbers of workers who had been stranded. The Ministry of Housing Affairs Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihood Mission, in its revised guidelines, states that shelters should be able to accommodate 100 of every 100,000 people in each city. That number was derived from an estimate of Indias homeless population as per a Supreme Court order in 2012.

While the estimates over the number of homeless in India are contested, this number was derived based on the 2011 Census. It found that India has 1.7 million homeless residents, of whom one million are in the metropolitan cities or cities with populations above four million.

Despite using a figure that is quite old, the National Urban Livelihood Mission guidelines have not been adhered to when constructing shelters in most cities. Take the national capital, for example. The city has about 230 shelters, according to the information on the website of the Delhi Urban Shelter Improvement Board. These shelters can only accommodate about 17,128 people.

As per current estimates, there are anywhere between 150,000 to 200,000 homeless people in Delhi at regular times. It is clear by the Delhi Urban Shelter Improvement Boards own record that its shelters could accommodate less than 10% of Delhis current homeless residents.

Some of Delhis shelters are, in fact, porta cabins: rectangular, non-sturdy, cargo-container-like structures. Most of them are designed to accommodate around 50 people to sleep in comfortably. They are on average 800 sq ft, which means each person gets about 15 sq ft, about the area of a train berth.

This makes the governments decision to force migrants into shelters to curb the spread of the virus quite inexplicable. To this extent, the fire that broke out in a shelter in Delhis Kashmere Gate on April 12, allegedly set by a disgruntled inmate, could not have been unexpected.

Secondly, after lockdown, the authorities seem to have amalgamated two quite different groups: the homeless and migrant workers, as if the needs, aspirations, and vulnerabilities of the two groups were the same. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Many of the stranded migrants had never lived in homeless shelters, simply because they are not homeless.

By merely extending the services for the homeless to migrant workers, state governments cramped them all into inadequately equipped shelters. This jeopardised the lives not just of migrants but the homeless too. This is bound to irreversibly affect the way the homeless avail of shelters in the future.

Finally, by reducing the problems of migrant workers to just lack of food and shelter, governments made no attempt to address the underlying causes behind the largest exodus in Indias urban history. Migrant workers were not just stranded and hungry, they were also people who needed to be paid back their wages. They were people who wanted to go home, and people who were as afraid of Covid-19 as anyone else.

At the very least, the state and Central governments must take this opportunity to revamp their strategies to house migrant workers. They must legitimise the informal settlements across Indian cities where migrants have thus far lived, to ensure that they have continuous access to civic amenities, and have the required documentation for security over their homes. This would help safeguard them from eviction and the consequent stress that comes with the threat of being arbitrarily dishoused.

This is a far less capital-intensive way of offering migrant workers a better quality of life in our cities, than constructing more housing units that would be unaffordable for migrant workers.

More than ever, there is a need to frame housing policies specifically targeted for circular migrants, who work in cities seasonally. There is a need to imagine policy interventions outside of the National Urban Livelihood Mission guidelines, for these are not directed towards circular migrants and their housing needs.

The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, the central governments flagship policy relating to affordable housing, one that aims to build 20 million affordable houses for the urban poor by March 2022, ignores a crucial fact. Migrant workers do not make housing decisions merely on the quality or type of housing available. Instead, their decisions are based on the proximity of their residence to their place of work, the nature of the work they do and their duration of stay in a city.

Indian cities must focus not just on the shortage of shelters and housing but on what kind of housing is required, and where. The government must allot more funds to helping slum dwellers build better quality houses, on the plots where they are currently located.

India must treat its urban poor with respect and dignity, both of which they have never received. Since housing is central to dignity, the country must develop newer strategies of inclusion. India must create conditions by which its migrant workers actually enjoy living in cities.

Anhad Imaan works with Aajeevika Bureau, a non-profit that provides support to seasonal migrant labourers in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.

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Indias migrant crisis pointed to another problem its lack of shelter homes - Scroll.in

The Supreme Court on Friday gave states three weeks to file replies about compliance of earlier directions in the suo motu case on the migrant crisis, amid the coronavirus pandemic, Bar and Bench reported. The top court also asked states to file a reply on registration and data collection of migrants.

On June 9, a Supreme Court bench headed by Justice Ashok Bhushan had directed the Centre and states to identify stranded migrant workers and transport them back to their hometowns within 15 days.

The bench also ordered the Centre to provide additional Shramik Special trains within 24 hours of requests by states, so that migrant labourers could be sent back home soon. The Centre had launched over 300 of these trains from May 1. However, not all migrant labour has been able to board them. The Centre and states have clashed over the operations of these trains.

The court said that cases filed against the labourers under the Disaster Management Act for violating the countrywide lockdown should be considered as withdrawn by states.

The Supreme Court said that states need to establish help desks to help migrants avail employment opportunities. It also ordered states to establish counselling centres for migrant workers, if they wish to travel back to their places of work and find employment. The bench said schemes established for welfare and employment of migrant workers should be properly publicised

Hundreds of thousands of migrant labourers began journeys home on foot in March, after the Centre imposed a countrywide lockdown to limit the spread of the coronavirus. Some died on the way due to illness.

India registered a record 55,078 new cases on Friday. With this, the countrys tally climbed up to 16,38,870. The toll also rose to 35,747 with 779 fresh fatalities.

Follow todays live updates on Covid-19 here

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Migrant crisis: Supreme Court gives states 3 weeks to file replies on compliance of its orders - Scroll.in

Migration has been one of the defining features of the still young 21st Century. It has led to economic and social development for many people and countries. In 2019, there were 272 million international migrants, accounting for 3.5 percent of the global population.

In Qatar, where one of the authors works, migrant laborers account for almost 94 percent of the total workforce. In Japan, where the other author lives and works, the percentage of foreign workers, although still low comparatively, has been steadily increasing amid the larger population decline.

There have also been downsides to migration, for the workers themselves and the sometimes harsh conditions in which they live, as well as the social, economic and political disruption caused in the host countries.

This commentary explores a new facet of the migration issue -- the impact of COVID-19 on migrants' lives. As readers know, millions of jobs are being lost worldwide monthly as a result of the pandemic. Quite often it is the migrant workers, who were barely surviving before, that have lost the most. The floor has literally fallen out for most of them. It is vital that their basic needs -- health, food and shelter more than anything, as well as educational opportunities for their children -- are met.

The obligation to do so is rooted in numerous international conventions and instruments. The 1975 Migrant Workers (Supplementary Provision) Convention, the 1990 International Convention of the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and the Members of Their Families, and the 2008 Decent Work Agenda of the International Labour Organization are the cornerstones of protecting the fundamental rights of migrant workers.

Muhammad Mustafizur Rahaman. (Photo courtesy of Muhammad Mustafizur Rahaman)(Kyodo)

In 2016, the United Nations adopted the "Global Compact for Migration," which provided a set of principles to govern migration effectively and humanely. Protecting the rights of migrants remains the core of the vision of the International Organization for Migration regarding the Compact. The forceful termination of work for migrants suddenly in times of disaster, be it man-made or natural, is unjustified on humanitarian grounds and is against the principles in the aforementioned provisions and instruments.

To address the crisis of COVID-19, governments around the world have been adopting a mixture of measures including the reallocation of resources for revitalizing the economy and business, health care support, subsidies for food and housing, universal basic income or other social safety nets, etc.

The United Kingdom, for example, undertook a coronavirus job retention scheme and provided grant funding for some categories of business. Qatar is providing health care support to everyone irrespective of nationality and immigration status -- both documented and undocumented. The New York State Legislature passed a bill to provide rent vouchers for tenants who have lost income due to the pandemic.

In Japan, foreign residents have also been eligible to receive a one-time 100,000 yen coronavirus payment per person, alongside their Japanese neighbors. While these measures are not enough to be sure, it is also true that many countries have not been able to be even this generous toward the foreigners within them.

Places of employment also have a role, especially at this time. Modern governance is based on the view that serving people is the shared responsibility of both the public and private sector. In the past, as is today, when governments find themselves incapacitated, it is increasingly businesses that fill the void.

Corporations, thus, cannot overlook their responsibility for ensuring the social protection of migrants.

One way in which companies can address this problem is through the exercise or expansion of corporate social responsibility, a concept popularized during the past half-century. Due to COVID-19, many businesses are incurring huge losses making it difficult to retain their workers and thus to participate in CSR, whereas some businesses are booming now. In any case, CSR is not separate but should be an integral part of the thinking of these businesses.

Unemployment leads to the loss of income if no new job is found quickly. With no purchasing power, these workers in many cases lose the ability to pay for food, housing and health care. Not only does a humanitarian crisis emerge, but so does a financial crisis for businesses trying to sell these products in a stagnant economy.

Workers are the pillars of an organization and its production and efficiency. Investing for their betterment is also the core of CSR. Workers who have worked for a long time in an organization have gained expertise and thus become a precious human resource for the organization. Therefore, it is in the interest of such businesses to retain these workers. Morale across the board drops significantly if any are let go.

Robert D. Eldridge. (Photo courtesy of Robert D. Eldridge)(Kyodo)

For financing their salaries and other benefits, companies can take out a loan from the government for a minimal rate or even zero interest. In this way, they can share some of the responsibility of ensuring social protection of the workers and migrants.

Most importantly, it is time to change their profit-at-all-costs mentality. In a capitalist economy, economic profit maximization lies at the core of business whereas serving social needs lies at the periphery. If businesses stick to this philosophy, not only will it be difficult for them to serve workers and migrants, but they may end up eating themselves in the process. Neither Strategic CSR nor the highest level of CSR called creating shared value, not to mention traditional CSR, seem to be suitable to address this problem. Companies must put the maximization of society at the core of business.

The role and responsibilities of International Donors should also not be overlooked. Some of them declared their willingness to provide funds to needy developing countries, and Bangladesh is one of those hoping to work with them.

The ILO and IOM should also come forward to help migrants. While ILO works to protect the rights of workers, IOM focuses on providing practical solutions to migration problems. In the current situation, creating a fund at the national and international levels under the purview of ILO and IOM would be one way to solve migrants' problems.

Migrants, especially low-salaried ones, without rights in a particular country would have to go home after losing their jobs but would struggle to survive and educate their children. Due to interruption of regular flights and the concern over infections, repatriation has emerged as a big problem for destination countries. The scarce capacity of medical facilities and medicine in the home countries prevented them from welcoming home the migrant workers eminently. This has led to protests by these unfortunate migrants in their host countries, posing a threat to public safety as well as to future migration to the host country.

The retention of migrants' jobs, as the reader can see, is thus a necessary condition for peace and development. One way through which migrants' jobs can be retained is by providing necessary funds to the migrants' host organizations who are willing to receive such funds. Similarly, a Local Consultative Group could be created in the country of origin with the participation of competent ministries -- in the case of Bangladesh, for example, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Expatriates and Overseas Employment, ILO and IOM. The LCG can disburse funds to companies and workers through the respective country's embassies.

"No-one left behind" is the ethical imperative of the new development agenda named the "2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development." Therefore, migrants, especially low-skilled and poorly paid workers, should be given priority. In the absence of proper initiatives to ensure social protection of migrants, the economic consequences of COVID-19 have pushed them into extreme poverty. It is the shared responsibility of governments, corporations and international development partners to help rescue migrants from the dangerous situation they find themselves in.

(Muhammad Mustafizur Rahaman serves as a counsellor at the Bangladesh Embassy, Doha. He earned his doctorate at Osaka University and was a fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science at Kyoto University. Robert D. Eldridge serves as the director for North Asia at the Global Risk Mitigation Foundation.)

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OPINION: Humanizing migration and COVID-19 crisis - Kyodo News Plus

Just when it seems the lot of Venezuelans could get no worse, trust President Nicols Maduro to show that the bottom is lower still. Earlier this month, Maduro dispatched troops to the Colombian border. The emergency? Tens of thousands of Venezuelans who had fled the dystopic Bolivarian republic and then been slammed by coronavirus and the economic shutdown abroad were now desperate to make their way back home. Biological weapons, Maduro called them, absurdly blaming unwilling prodigal Venezuelans for the countrys spiking contagion.

Venezuelas returnees are the most flagrant face of one of the regions least noted emergencies: the plight of hundreds of thousands of Latin Americans who escaped dead-end lives in their native lands and now, amid disease and lockdowns, find they are unwanted by their neighbours as well.

Forget for a moment the US border wall and crowded detention centres along the Rio Grande; the flow of people between Latin American nations has soared in recent years. The United Nations estimates that some 10 million Latin Americans currently live in another country in the region. Economist Manuel Orozco, an expert on migration and remittances for the Inter-American Dialogue, argues in a forthcoming study that the total could be as high as 13 million, double the number from 2000.

Intraregional migration surged after the global recession in 2008, when rich nations tightened their borders. It rose again after 2010 as worsening violence, drug-related crime and political upheaval drove waves of families from at least eight Latin American and Caribbean nations to seek foreign refuge, often in the country next door. Peru and Brazil were among the five countries with the highest number of asylum applications in 2019.

Consider Nicaragua, where authoritarian Daniel Ortega has met popular unrest with brutal repression, chasing thousands over the border. In the first eight months of 2018, Costa Rica saw its foreign-born population rise to 27,000, with another 25,000 seeking formal refugee status.

The upside of this regional exodus was a spike in homebound dollars, as enterprising migrants rebuilt their lives abroad and shared the wealth with the loved ones they left behind. In a June study, Orozco concluded that 10 percentof the US$17 billion that Latin Americans remitted last year was earned in other Latin American countries.

Another report shows that Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Paraguay netted 21 percentof their expatriate transfers in 2017 from within the region. Indeed, Bolivia and Paraguay captured more migrant dollars from neighbouring nations than from the United States that year, while intraregional remittances in Bolivia, Colombia and Nicaragua outpaced those from Spain.

Venezuelans, again, have set the pace, with migrants sending back on average anywhere from US$40 (from Colombia) to US$214 (from Panama) at a time, up to a dozen times a year.

The coronavirus outbreak now threatens this vital stream of regional largesse, just as it exposes how ill-prepared host countries are to manage the gathering migratory disruption. Consider that more than two-thirds of Venezuelans in Colombia lack legal immigrant status and just a quarter of them have only temporary permits.

Doubling back

Its unclear how many of Latin Americas internal migrants are doubling back, but relief workers and border authorities are overwhelmed. An estimated 70,000 Venezuelans had returned as of early July, with tens of thousands more on the way, according to the United Nations. The multiple-agency relief effort known as Response for Venezuelans launched to contain the crisis was budgeted at US$1.41 billion; as of July 24, it had raised only US$248 million.

Venezuelans are not alone. Paraguayans are returning from Argentina. Peruvians are trying to leave Chile, whose government has also flown struggling Haitians back home. Nicaraguans are packing up in Costa Rica and Panama. The United Nations also reports that the pandemic has spurred a new pattern of internal migration, with tens of thousands of families in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru quitting the cities, where infection rates are rising, for the countryside.

These newcomers performed basic, sometimes crucial, services in their host countries, from construction to care for the elderly. Armies of motorcycle deliverymen have kept Argentines fed and supplied during lockdowns. Cuban and Peruvian nurses and physicians are among the first responders of the Covid-19 crisis. Yet these guest workers have seen their welcomes vanish with their livelihoods. Many are irregular migrants, without access to health services or unemployment benefits. University graduates are unable to validate their diplomas, said Vanina Modolo, regional migration analyst for the United Nations-affiliated International Organisation for Migration, in Buenos Aires.

Even some of the most generous official relief efforts fall short: Argentinas cash benefit to help the most vulnerable through the economic shutdown includes only those foreigners with two years of proven residency.

Discrimination and xenophobia are on the rise, as migrants become easy targets for local populations facing hardships. At a time when fear of catching Covid-19 is high, migrants are also easily and unfairly stigmatised as public health threats in their adopted countries. Nor, as Venezuelans and Nicaraguans have found, are they always welcome back with open arms.

The way home is also fraught with obstacles and danger. As Latin America joined the global movement to restrict mobility and seal borders, returnees often had to find their way along unsafe routes and clandestine crossings, prey to criminal networks and traffickers.

Perhaps its a lot to ask of nations already overwhelmed by unprecedented national crises to also care for strangers in peril. Yet to protect migrants who have provided so many societies with vital service and labor is also to safeguard the native population. Latin America already confronts a public health calamity, an unprecedented economic collapse and incipient social unrest. The last thing it needs is a refugee crisis, as well.

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A refugee crisis is the last thing Latin America needs - Buenos Aires Times

Aug 1st 2020

DUBAI, JOHANNESBURG, SINGAPORE, SYDNEY, TOKYO AND WASHINGTON, DC

EVERY WEEKEND the removal vans come to a leafy suburb of Dubai. Expatriates are packing up. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), of which Dubai is part, will lose 10% of its population this year, reckons Nasser al-Shaikh, an ex-finance minister. Covid-19 has devastated the Gulfs trade-and-transport hub. Emirates, Dubais airline, says it may cut 30% of its roughly 100,000 staff.

Nearly all of those losing their jobs in the UAE are migrants, who are almost 90% of the population. Without a job, they have to leave the country. This is irksome enough if they are bankers or architects. For those who used to wash dishes in hotels or lay bricks on building sites that are now shuttered, it can be a nightmare. Some 500,000 Indians in the UAE have registered to be evacuated; less than half have been.

Many blue-collar migrants have waited so long for flights that they have blown their savings. Asad (not his real name) got a $1,100 pay-off when he lost his construction job in April, but has had to spend nearly all of it on food and other necessities, which are far costlier in Dubai than back home in Pakistan. This week he was huddling outside the airport for a cigarette before a flight to Lahore. Two years [and] I go home with almost nothing, he says. Some of his friends are even worse off: they still owe money to the labour brokers who brought them to the Gulf in the first place.

Covid-19 has immobilised the world. Planes are grounded, borders are closed, people are hunkered down at home. Every country has restricted travel because of the coronavirusissuing more than 65,000 rules in total. Some countries are starting to open up but it will be a long time before people can globetrot as freely as before.

For tourists who have to take a domestic holiday instead of a glamorous foreign one, global immobility is annoying. For would-be migrants, it can be life-shattering. Millions who would have set off to start a new life this year cannot. Workers who might have quadrupled their wages will remain poor. Students who might have stretched their minds on foreign campuses will stay at home.

Tens of millions of migrants who have already moved now face deportation, having lost their job, according to the International Labour Organisation. Millions have gone home to places like the Philippines, India and Ukraine. Millions more are stranded, sometimes in crowded conditions that foster the spread of the virus.

Locals are not always sympathetic. Malaysia, which used to welcome Muslim Rohingya refugees, has started pushing their vessels back into the sea. Italy has stepped up efforts to turn back boatloads of Africans. A Kuwaiti actress suggested that migrant workers, who are 70% of the labour force in Kuwait, be thrown into the desert to free up space in hospitals.

Global remittance flows, which are over three times bigger than foreign aid to poor countries, will fall by 20% this year, predicts the World Bank. Families that used to rely on cash from a migrant son or aunt to see them through hard times are finding that times are suddenly much harder and the flow of cash from abroad has dried up.

Businesses that depend on mobile labour have been hobbled. Pokka Singapore, a drinks-maker, employs about 120 Malaysians who used to commute across the border to Singapore. When the borders closed, more than half decided to remain in Malaysia, says Rieko Shofu, the firms boss. She has gone without half her Malaysian workforce for months, with no end in sight.

Travel curbs have made cross-border investment harder. Before committing money to a venture, you need to be able to walk the factory floor and physically validate what you read in the PowerPoint presentation, says Stephen Forshaw of Temasek, Singapores sovereign-wealth fund. Now, if you are not already there, you cant.

Even if tourism and business travel return to something resembling normal as the pandemic fades, some restrictions on migration may remain. Where people had a settled right to move which was temporarily suspended for health reasons, within the European Union for example, that right will surely be restored. But where permission to move is granted by the host government, it may become permanently harder.

Much will depend on how covid-19 affects peoples view of immigrants. Fear could make them more hostile. Many will conclude that letting in foreigners is a health risk (though the vast majority of travellers are not migrants). Because the virus originated in China, bigots in many countries have mistreated people who look Chinese. Bigots in China, meanwhile, have evicted black immigrants from their homes and barred them from hotels, after hearing a rumour that Africans were likely to be infected. Future migrants will not quickly forget footage of a no-blacks sign on a McDonalds in Guangzhou.

With economies reeling, many will also conclude that it is time to stop immigrants from competing with natives for scarce jobs. In countries where lots of migrants have been laid off and are allowed to live on the dole, locals may resent the expense.

The pandemic might also hurt illicit migrants. Some of the snooping tools that governments have introduced to trace the spread of covid-19 could outlast it, making it harder to work in the shadows. In China, to take the most extreme example, malls and subways often deny entry to those who lack an app on their phone to show they are healthy, which no one can get without a formal address. It may become virtually impossible to live without papers, writes Roberto Castillo of AfricansInChina.net.

In other ways, however, the pandemic could make people friendlier towards immigrants, many of whom have risked their lives to do essential work during the crisis (see chart 1). Health services in rich countries could not function without them (see chart 2). Roughly half the doctors in Australia and Israel are foreign-born. In America migrants were 14% of the population in 2018 but 29% of doctors. Medical research, of the sort that will one day yield a vaccine, depends on teams of the most talented minds from around the world getting together and collaborating. Some 40% of medical and life scientists in America are foreign-born. The Oxford Vaccine Group, which unveiled promising vaccine trial results in July, includes scientists from practically everywhere.

Immigrants also do a big share of the jobs that make it possible for the rest of us to work safely from home, observes Doris Meissner of the Migration Policy Institute, a think-tank. They grow food (42% of farm workers in America are foreign-born), deliver things (18% of industrial truckers) and disinfect floors (47% of hotel maids and 25% of janitors). More than half of American tech giants were founded by immigrants or their children. That includes Zoom, Amazon and Google, without whose products remote working would be tricky.

With covid-19 rife, immigration policy is not at the top of the agenda anywhere. But it is bubbling up. Europe seems more hostile to migrants crossing the Mediterranean. In Australia the opposition Labor Partys immigration spokeswoman said the country should move away from its lazy reliance on cheap foreign workers who take jobs Australians could do.

Among rich countries the debate is playing out most dramatically in America. Long before covid-19 was discovered, Mr Trump associated immigrants with germs. He spoke of tremendous infectious diseasepouring across the border with Mexico. Stephen Miller, a hardline adviser, had long argued that public health could provide a legal justification for shutting them out. After the coronavirus struck, Mr Trump enacted a wishlist of restrictions.

He banned foreign travellers from China. This did not protect America since Americans were free to return home from covid-19 hotspots. Nonetheless, Mr Trump praised his own decisiveness. I banned China, he repeated, often.

Immigration to the United States was falling even before the pandemic, thanks to aggressive enforcement, reduced quotas and the eloquence with which Mr Trump tells migrants they are not wanted. The net increase in the foreign-born population was a mere 200,000 in 2017-18, down from over 1m in 2013-14. Mr Trump seems eager to lower that number to zero.

In June he issued a Proclamation Suspending Entry of Aliens Who Present a Risk to the US Labour Market Following the Coronavirus Outbreak. It froze four types of visa for the rest of the year: H-1Bs (for highly skilled workers); H-2Bs (for less-skilled workers); J visas, for au pairs, temporary summer workers and some academics; and L visas, for professionals who are moved within the same company.

These new rules, combined with a neartotal shutdown of visa offices, will destroy American jobs, not create them. Holders of H-1B visas mostly work in information technology, where there is a skills shortage. Adam Ozimek of Upwork, a freelancing platform, estimates that the use of IT to enable remote working has reduced the risk of job losses by between a third and a half. And a new paper by Britta Glennon of the Wharton School finds that when America restricts H-1B visas, multinationals do not hire more Americans. They shift operations to Canada, India and China.

Curbing the flow of talent will constrict economic growth. Consider the baffling decision to stop intra-company transfers. Multinationals routinely bring in key managers or technicians from abroad to solve bottlenecks. If they cannot do this, their businesses are less likely to succeedso they will be less likely to invest in America at all. About 80% of my portfolio consists of at least one founder who has immigrant roots, says Joydeep Bhattacharyya, a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley. Many have started outside the United States, and then the entrepreneur has moved over, employing a lot of American workers. This year its completely stopped. No matter how well theyre doing, they cant come.

Banning au pairs wont create jobs for Americans, either. On the contrary: by providing cheap child care, au pairs make it easier for American parents to go out to work. Families that couldnt afford a nanny can often afford an au pair because part of the au pairs compensation is a place to stay and a chance to learn English.

Jason Patwell, a defence contractor, is a single father of three boys, one of whom has special needs. He was aghast when he realised that an au pair would not be coming. I would love to say I have a back-up plan, but I dont. I can throw money at the problem, and go into debt. Ill survive until the end of the summer, he says.

In worse-off countries, where the state lacks the cash to cushion the economic shock of covid-19, the debate about migration is even more fraught. Consider South Africa, where xenophobia was common, sometimes lethally so, even before the pandemic. Like America, South Africa shares a long, porous land border with a large continent where wages are much lower. Workers and traders flock there from all over Africa. The World Bank estimates that each one creates on average two jobs for natives, because migrants import skills, start businesses and spend money. But most South Africans think otherwise. They are nearly twice as likely to say that immigrants are a burden than to say they make the country stronger, says a Pew poll. (In America, those figures are reversed.)

One of the first things South Africas government did to fight covid-19 was to build a 40km fence on the border with Zimbabwe. It has more holes than a bagel warehouse. A local farmer calls it a complete farce. It would not be much of a public-health measure in any case. Covid-19 has largely entered South Africa by air, from Europe, and is circulating widely.

In March a minister announced that foreign-owned shops, which are the only outlets in many areas and are disproportionally owned by Ethiopians and Somalis, would have to close. Locals were forced to travel miles to buy groceries, which helped spread the virus. Enforcement was relaxed in April, but the hassles did not end.

When the offices that issue permits were closed, the government promised that all expiring permits would automatically be extended, first until July 31st, then until October 31st. However, police and soldiers have allegedly detained and demanded bribes from foreigners with out-of-date papers. A few Zimbabweans got on privately organised repatriation buses. Upon leaving South Africa, some were banned from returning for five years, despite promises to the contrary. An overhaul of immigration laws is due later this yearto be drafted by securocrats, not economists.

Some countries may emerge from the pandemic more open to migration. In Japan covid-19 may have spurred the government to make its pro-immigration policies more explicit. The country is ageing and needs young foreigners to clean hotels and staff shops. The polite fiction was that many of these foreign workers were trainees, learning skills to bring back home.

But from April the government ditched the requirement that these trainees stick with the firm that sponsored their visa. It did not want to deport migrants who had lost jobs in one sector (eg hotels) when others (eg hospitals) were crying out for them. So it announced that they could switch employers. By doing so, it has dropped the pretence that the trainee programme is about anything more than coping with Japans own labour shortage, argues Menju Toshihiro of the Japan Centre for International Exchange, a non-profit. Indeed, migrant workers are so valuable that calls to exclude them from the governments covid-19 stimulus package fell on deaf ears.

In Britain anti-immigration sentiment peaked around the time of the Brexit referendum of 2016, but has since subsided. Many who voted to leave the EU because they thought there was too much migration now feel Britain has taken back control of its borders. In the wake of covid-19, views of immigration will continue to mollify, predicts Jonathan Portes of Kings College London. A recent decision to extend residence rights to up to 3m Hong Kongers passed without fuss. Under a proposed points-based system, EU nationals will find it harder to work in the UK, and few workers from anywhere will be admitted if they make less than 25,600 ($33,231) a year. But the rules will be looser for health workers. And voters have noticed that many migrants who make less than 25,600 have been indispensable of late. Care workers, bus drivers and supermarket staff all fulfil essential functions, and it is far from obvious that there will be public support for an immigration system that excludes them all in favour of relatively junior bankers, writes Mr Portes.

In America, for all Mr Trumps fist-waving, the share of people who think that illegal immigration is a very big problem has fallen markedly since the pandemic began, from 43% last year to 28% in June. This could be because the influx has dried up, or because, compared with covid-19 itself, nothing seems like a very big problem. The country is divided. A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Americans roughly evenly split between wanting immigration to resume after the pandemic at the same pace as before or faster (40%) versus slower or remaining frozen (42%).

Still, the inability of populist leaders such as Mr Trump and Brazils Jair Bolsonaro to cope with covid-19 could cost them their jobsand thereby usher in a less drawbridge-up type of government. The Economists prediction model gives Joe Biden about a nine-in-ten chance of winning the American presidency in November. He would clearly be different. He says Trump has waged an unrelenting assault on our values and our history as a nation of immigrants. He could immediately revoke Mr Trumps executive orders and stop separating migrant children from their parents. He vows to promote laws to increase the number of skilled migrants, create an easier path to citizenship and let cities with labour shortages petition for more migrants.

Covid-19 has shown that the freedom to migrate, which was always constrained, can be cancelled at will when people are scared. Consider Subha Nawer Pushpitas experiences. She is a Bangladeshi studying computer science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. America was built by people like her: immigrants at MIT have won more Nobel prizes than China. So she was gobsmacked to learn, on July 6th, that she might be deported. The government said that foreigners at American universities who take only remote classes would have to leave the country.

Eighteen states sued to have the rule scrapped. The week after, it was. I felt incredibly relieved and excited. I called my mom and I was shouting, recalls Ms Pushpita. She will be able to study. But many others wont. On July 24th the Trump administration said that new foreign students who have not yet reached America will be barred if their classes are taught remotely. As long as hes in office, something else will pop up, sighs Ms Pushpita.

Editors note: Some of our covid-19 coverage is free for readers of The Economist Today, our daily newsletter. For more stories and our pandemic tracker, see our hub

This article appeared in the International section of the print edition under the headline "Tearing up the welcome mat"

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When covid-19 recedes, will global migration start again? - The Economist

Published: July 30, 2020 11:52:32 pm

By Syed Tahseen Raza

Embedded mostly in the world imagination as a site in the custody of Byzantine Christianity for more than a thousand years and Ottoman Islamic protection for around five hundred years, the Hagia Sophia issue needs to be understood independent of the secular-religious binary or, more specifically of the Byzantine Christian and Ottoman Muslim and nationalist-cosmopolitan dichotomies. These frameworks have been amply highlighted.

This magnificent monument becomes a fiercely competitive site each time a claimant asserts their legacy. In this perennial tussle for control, the hegemon at present is the Turkish nation-state, which hosts the structure.

The recent move of the Recep Erdogan government to change the nature of the site from being a museum to a mosque has not happened in isolation. It has as much to do with the collapse of the post-enlightenment rationality as with the unfinished project of decoloniality. Also at play is the collapse of the liberal-secular promise to be the dominant idea of the time.

Of the many international and strategic factors that led Turkey to follow a more assertive path on the status of the site, two sets of issues demand close scrutiny. These may be categorised as long-festering ones and immediate triggers. While the former includes issues such as Turkeys frustration over its attempts to be a part of the European Union and having had to always deliver more than what it thinks it has been responsible for its neighbourhood. The collective response of Europe on issues like Srebrenica massacre to the more recent migrant crisis has further added to the growing disillusionment in Turkey. From acting as more European than Europe itself in the Kemalist era to calibrating its response to the Middle East in tandem with the Euro-Atlantic alliance even entering into a military alliance with Israel Turkey seems to have had enough of its western quest. It realised the painful reality that it can never be European enough.

This East-West tussle goes much deeper in history. When we are discussing Hagia Sophia and Sultan Mehmets annexation of Constantinople, it will be fitting to recall an incident which highlights the East-West dimension of this historical conflict. The East has always been a symbol of barbarism for the West. This goes back to the myth of civilised Greeks conquering Troy. Mehmets biographer recounts an incident that took place in the year 1463, almost 10 years after Constantinoples conquest. Mehmet, while on an expedition to Mitylene, went to Ilium, the site of the legendary battle of Troy and remarked: God has reserved for me through so long a period of years the right to avenge this city and its inhabitants now through my efforts paid the just penalty after a long period of years, for their injustices to us Asiatics at that time and so often in subsequent times.

Erdogans current decision regarding Hagia Sophia, in the final analysis, could have been more statesmanlike. He could have either maintained the status quo or in the tradition of Islam, shown respect as Caliph Hazrat Umar did when he invited Sophroniys to the Church of the Sepulchre to offer prayers to respect Christian sentiments. But Erdogan chose Ottomanism over Islamism.

Raza is Assistant Professor in the Department of Strategic and Security Studies, faculty of International Studies, Aligarh Muslim University, India and is a part of the AMU Teachers and Seniors Collective

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The layers of Hagia Sophia - The Indian Express

A homeless man and members of the public in London. (Photo by Dinendra Haria/SOPA Images/LightRocket ... [+] via Getty Images)

A controversial part of the U.K. immigration system which bars migrants without permanent residency from access public funds is under increased scrutiny, as the amount of people applying to have their ban lifted increases more than 500%.

The clause is known as "No Recourse To Public Funds" or NRPF for short. It means any migrant without permanent residency (known in the U.K. as Indefinite Leave to Remain, or ILR) is barred from accessing the state support afforded citizens and permanent residents, such as welfare, school meal subsidies, disability allowance and child support. The U.K. Home Office, responsible for immigration in the country, says ILR is an established threshold for permitting migrants to access public funds, and that this is in the public interest.

Campaign groups have been lobbying for an easing of NRPF for years, but if this is the first time youve heard about it, youre not the only one. At the end of May, Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared confused when asked by MP Stephen Timms about NRPF: "Hang on Stephen, why aren't they eligible for Universal Credit or Employment Support Allowance?"

After Timms explained it all to him, the PM promised to look into it: "Clearly (...) people who've worked hard for this country, who live and work here, should have support of one kind or another." That was at the end of May, but by early June it was clear the U.K. government was not going to change things, and at the end of June, parliament voted 337-248 against pausing NRPF during the pandemic.

By this point of course, COVID-19 had already wrought a severe economic and human toll in the U.K., not least for those migrants already in tenuous or low-paid employment who were unable to apply for help when their jobs disappeared. The latest government numbers on individual NRPF relief applications reflect this: in the first quarter of 2020, 843 people applied to have their ban lifted to save them and their families from destitution. In the second quarter, there were 5,665 applications. That's an increase of 572%.

"The COVID-19 pandemic is causing an economic crisis of unprecedented scale and has translated into a large increase in unemployment and income losses for a substantial share of the population," wrote Maria Fernndez-Reino, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University in a recent briefing note. "Recent research has shown that this crisis is expected to widen the existing economic inequalities and has put many migrants with NRPF, particularly those in precarious types of employment, in a vulnerable position."

Another serious concern is the impact of NRPF on victims of domestic abuse. As has been noted, cases of domestic and gender-based violence have spiked during the pandemic, and the government has acknowledged that NRPF can make it harder for people to seek shelter, meaning some victims might be forced to choose between staying with their abuser or living on the streets. An amendment to the recently passed Domestic Abuse Bill which would have lifted NRPF for migrant victims of domestic abuse was rejected 331-207 in the House of Commons.

The Migration Observatory estimates there are around 1.376 million people currently holding U.K. visas that would be subject to NRPF. The majority of these are likely to be in a position to support themselves and will not be experiencing financial hardship approaching destitution. For those less fortunate, however, there are significant barriers to getting help.

In May, a High Court decision led to the Home Office extending the criteria for individual NRPF relief, meaning those in the country on family or private life visas could be allowed to access public funds. This still leaves many people ineligible, in particular people on work visas who have lost their income due to the coronavirus pandemic. Even those who can apply, and are aware that they can apply, face significant obstacles.

"It is a very complicated process, even though they say that it's been made as simple as possible," says Mary Atkinson, family reunion campaigner at the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants (JCWI). "What we see is that people really do need legal advice to be able to lift the conditions."

Complexity alone is not the only barrier to applying. A successful lifting of NRPF would in many cases double the amount of time the migrant needs to be in the country before she gains permanent residency, up to ten years from the usual five. Prolonging this process would mean thousands of pounds of extra fees the already destitute family would have to pay. Various groups have described this as a punishment or penalty for applying for assistance. The Home Office says this provision reflects a fairness to those immigrants who don't seek taxpayer support during their process towards ILR.

A government spokesperson said: Those seeking to establish their family life in the U.K. must do so on a basis that prevents burdens on the taxpayer and promotes integration. However, individuals who have a right to be in the U.K. on account of their family life or other human rights reasons can apply to have the NRPF condition lifted by making a change of conditions application if their financial circumstances change.

Today's NRPF-relief application numbers show a steady increase in acceptance over the last few years. 89% of the applications made so far in Q2 2020 to lift NRPF have been approved, compared to 41% in Q3 2017. Various charities continue to call for an overall lifting of NRPF, however, in light of a significant rise in the homeless population, which will include many migrant workers who are not in the position to apply for their own relief.

"People are getting in touch on a daily basis, saying 'me and my partner both lost our jobs and we don't know where to turn,'" says the JCWI's Mary Atkinson. "Currently, there are very, very few places they can turn to."

But Atkinson also says the attention on NRPF only makes an existing problem more visible. "It shows the desperate situation that these policies have put people in for years. The fact that there's been this surge doesn't mean that people haven't been in desperate need before."

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Thousands Of Migrants In The U.K. Are Seeking Relief From No Recourse To Public Funds - Forbes

Chairman of the Raizing Group, Rajji Rai is one of the stalwarts of the Indian tourism industry. His entrepreneurial daughter, Srishti Jindal, is also carving her own path now. During the Covid-19 crisis, both of them, despite their busy schedules of remotely running offices across Asia, never forgot to extend a helping hand to those in need.

We distributed around 70,000 prepared food plates to people of JJ clusters, migrant labourers and vulnerable people affected by the Covid crisis, said Rai, who is also the vice-president of Panchsheel Society, New Delhi. The team of volunteers from the society also distributed thousands of masks, clean water, sanitisers and food packets every day during the lockdown.

Rai also motivated people with means to donate rations for the cause. His noble work received appreciation from Delhi Police and South Delhi Municipal Corporation. Jindal also donated food and other supplies and independently supervised the volunteers working in the field through video calls.

She focused on providing sanitary supplies, medicines and personal care items to vulnerable women.

I would love to be present at the distribution centres. But because of my seven-month-old baby, I couldnt be there personally, she said.

Srishti Jindal runs a successful travel media, research, events and branding company, Swift Media International. It has worked with leading airlines of the world and the Ministry of Tourism, Government of India. She has won several awards for her contribution to the tourism industry, including the prestigious APJ Abdul Kalam Award for innovation in 2017. She has always been passionate about creative and original work. Srishti Jindal has also recently launched a virtual platform, http://www.theterrene.com, to highlight and support young creative individuals from around the world.

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This father-daughter duo lent a helping hand during the Covid crisis - Economic Times