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Shown from left, a healthy, estrogen-producing female mouse with ovaries and normal weight levels, an obese female mouse without ovaries, and a female mouse without ovaries after being treated with the GPER-activating compound G-1. (Images Courtesy of Eric Prossnitz, UNM)

A new University of New Mexico-developed drug to reduce obesity and treat diabetes could potentially hit the market in coming years.

The New Mexico Startup Factory, a local incubator of sorts created by the New Mexico Angels private investment group, launched a new company to take UNMs drug to market. And the National Institutes of Health just approved a $300,000 grant to conduct animal studies on the efficacy and safety of the compound, developed by a team of UNM scientists with additional assistance from New Mexico State University.

DEXA scans high-precision X-rays that measure bone density, fat content and body mass show the effects of G-1 on the previously-obese female mouse on the right, compared with the non-treated obese female mouse on the left.

If the NIH-backed animal testing goes well, it could lead to another grant of up to $2 million, potentially paving the way for human clinical trials in a few years, said lead research scientist Eric Prossnitz, a cell biologist and physiologist who heads the Division of Molecular Medicine in the UNM Health Sciences Center Department of Internal Medicine.

................................................................

This initial grant will help finance the first phase of pre-clinical animal trials over the next year, Prossnitz said. After that, well seek NIH approval for a two-year grant of up to $1 million per year to do much more detailed studies in animals. If the stars line up and we have enough money, we could then approach the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to proceed with clinical human trials.

The forthcoming studies must first prove the efficacy, and above all, the safety of using the drug in animals before the FDA would consider human trials.

Eric Prossnitz

We need to first make sure of any and all side effects or potential toxicity, Prossnitz said.

The drug has already produced promising results in previous studies with obese mice of both genders, resulting in significantly reduced body weight, decreased circulating cholesterol, increased energy expenditure, improved glucose tolerance and restored insulin sensitivity, Prossnitz said.

The drug, called Tespria, is based on a compound called G-1, which Prossnitz and his team discovered nearly 15 years ago. G-1 acts as an agonist, or activator, for the G-Protein Coupled Estrogen Receptor (GPER), which interacts with the female reproduction hormone estrogen. G-1 mimics the effects of estrogen, which naturally docks with GPER molecules, causing reactions in the GPER that can impact a variety of bodily functions, such as reducing pressure in blood vessels or generating anti-inflammatory effects on cells.

GPER, when activated by estrogen, basically turns things on and off in the body. Prossnitzs team discovered that the G-1 compound causes the same reactions without actually involving estrogen.

John Elling

That generated a lot more research over the years to discover the myriad of things that GPER, when activated, actually does in the body, and to look at potential use of G-1 to activate GPER to fight disease, such as cancer, which is often connected with estrogen.

Those studies led a Pennsylvania company, Linnaeus Therapeutics Inc., to license the use of G-1 from UNM to develop drugs to help fight things like breast cancer and melanoma. Linnaeus is now conducting FDA-sanctioned human trials on people with advanced cases of melanoma, said Lisa Kuuttila, CEO of UNM Rainforest Innovations, UNMs technology transfer office.

G-1 seems to have pretty widespread applications for cancer, Kuuttila said. Linnaeus has made a lot of progress with promising results in clinical trials.

Given G-1s anti-cancer potential, Prossnitz team began looking at its ability to also activate GPER against metabolic diseases associated with estrogen. Lack of estrogen in menopausal women, for example, can cause loss of bone density and obesity.

Our studies showed that G-1 reverses the effects of a lack of estrogen, effectively treating both obesity and diabetes in female and male mice, Prossnitz said. In female mice, we found G-1 mimics the effects of estrogen by activating GPER without actually increasing or changing estrogen levels.

In males, estrogen can produce undesirable side effects. But since G-1 only mimics the impact of estrogen without actually involving that hormone, UNM scientists were able to treat male mice as well, Prossnitz said.

That encouraged the New Mexico Angels to form a new company, GPER G-1 Development Group, providing seed funding to move forward, said company CEO John Elling.

We licensed the use of G-1 from UNM to treat obesity and diabetes, because there are good indications that it works, Elling said.

Its still not exactly clear what GPER activation through G-1 actually does in the body. One possibility is that it activates brown fat, which burns energy rather than storing it like other fats, thereby burning up excess calories, Prossnitz said.

It increased the energy levels in mice, he said. Thats the Holy Grail to expend more energy and burn more fat without decreasing food intake or increasing activity levels.

NMSU regents professor Jeffrey Arterburn is assisting in research, and NMSUs Arrowhead Innovation Fund provided additional seed money for GPER G-1, said Arrowhead Center Director Kathryn Hansen.

Its exciting to have jointly owned technology with UNM and a high-quality research team doing basic lab work together, Hansen said. Theres potential here for real impact on obesity and diabetes.

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Federal funding will advance animal studies of obesity, diabetes using UNM-developed drug - Albuquerque Journal

Gene drives may be invaluable tools to control the spread of parasites, invasive species, and disease carriers. But the technology has faced strong opposition from activist groups and some mainstream scientists based on environmental and food safety. Are these concerns valid?

On June 30, some 80 environmental organizations, led by Greenpeace EU, Friends of the Earth Europe and Save Our Seeds, signed an open letter to the European Commission asking for support for a global moratorium on gene drive technology. The advocacy groups claimed that the release of gene drives poses serious and novel threats to biodiversity and the environment at an unprecedented scale and depth.

Citing a report by the European Network of Scientists for Social and Environmental Responsibility (ENSSER), the coalition wrote:

in light of the unpredictabilities, the lack of knowledge and the potentially severe negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, any releases (including experimental) of Gene Drive Organisms into the environment be placed on hold to allow proper investigation until there is sufficient knowledge and understanding.

The environmental claims were unsupported by any documents other than the report by ENSSER, a controversial group of anti-biotechnology activist scientists co-founded by Gilles-ricSralini, best known for his retracted and discredited 2012 paper linking GMOs to cancer in rats.

The European parliament has already supported such a moratorium, an act that echoes EUs precautionary approach to genetic engineering, transgenic organisms and gene editing. The EU stated reasons include:

Recent advances in genetics and synthetic biology, particularly the development of CRISPR gene editing tools, have given scientists a powerful way to address problems created by pests, from mosquitoes to rodents, that vector disease to humans. In classical genetics, genes that offer adaptation benefits to individuals tend to increase their occurrence in the population while genes that reduce fitness tend to disappear.

Gene drives are genetic sequences designed to spread strongly and become present in every individual of a targeted species after a few generations. The genes may offer benefits, be neutral for adaptation purposes, or hinder their carriers survival and reproduction potential.Generation after generation, it would relentlessly copy and paste the gene it carried, until the gene and the desired trait was present in every descendant.Because the spread of a trait happens over generations, a gene drive works best in species that reproduce quickly, like insects and rodents

Gene drives are the first genetic constructs that can theoretically affect a population in its entirety, and quickly. It could even lead to the extinction of entire species, as gene drive critics allege. Species extinction has been part of life and evolution for all of Earths history. Although the data are fuzzy and contested, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity concluded that 150-200 plant, insect bird, and mammal species go extinct every day.

The likelihood that a gene drive will destroy a species in part or in whole, such as the infectedAedes aegyptimosquito species that carries the Zika, dengue and chingunya viruses and offers no known environmental benefits, is nonetheless daunting to some. On the one hand, gene drives could be used to eradicate disease such as malaria and yellow fever by controlling the mosquitoes that transmit them. On the other hand, critics fear that the technology will open a Pandoras Box; removing a species that theoretically could resultin what is popularly and controversially known as the butterfly effect.

As imagined by MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz 60 years ago, a tiny environmental changesay an extinction of a pestcould dramatically and unpredictably result in unpredictable or even catastrophic consequences (Lorenz imagined abutterflyflapping its wings and causing a typhoon).

In the last few years, various groups have called for a global moratorium on gene drives. Such attempts were resisted at the 2016 and 2018 United Nations Conventions on Biological Diversity, mainly due to the strong opposition of many scientists and sub-Saharan African nations hardest hit by disease-vectored pests. Nevertheless, gene drive opponents have gained traction and gene drive research and applications face significant regulatory obstacles across the world (see Genetic Literacys Global Gene Editing Regulation tracker for a country-by-country analysis).

What does the scientific evidence say about gene drives and their environmental consequences?

There are over 3,000 mosquito species, likely a fraction of the number of species that have existed over some 100 million years. A handful of these (Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex species) are disease vectors and transmit infections such as malaria, yellow fever, the West Nile virus, Zika, and dengue fever. Mosquito-borne disease account for more than 17% of all infectious diseases and cause more than 700,000 deaths every year. These mosquitoes are mostly invasive in their ecological distributions.

Ultimately, there seem to be few things that mosquitoes do that other organisms cant do just as wellexcept perhaps for one, reported Nature magazine ina 2010 article A World Without Mosquitoes.

They are lethally efficient at sucking blood from one individual and mainlining it into another, providing an ideal route for the spread of pathogenic microbes. The Nature article concluded that wiping out mosquitoes wouldnt be a badthing. In fact, they could restore rather than harm the ecosystem. The same can be inferred for most parasitic insects, which are specialized to a particular host and normally dont have an extended ecological interactions network.

Invasive species also cause significant environmental hazards. Cane toads, having no natural predators, are slowly taking over the Australian continent from the northeast. Invasive fish from the red sea are wrecking havoc in the Mediterranean marine ecosystems. Rodents have spread in every conceivable corner of the earth, displacing vulnerable local fauna.

Gene drives might be one of the only ways to contain their spread, protecting biodiversity. They can be a powerful conservation tool that targets only the organism of interest, unlike contemporary pest management techniques such as the use of insecticides that attack all insects indiscriminately, or introduction of natural predators from other ecosystems (that by default disturb the food chains and interactions network).

It is possible for a DNA sequence to jump from one species to the other through a process called horizontal gene transfer. This theoretically could happen between insects, which appears to lend support to the argument that there is at least a small chance for a gene drive to move from species to species with unforeseen consequences.

The truth is that gene drives can be designed to target a very specific area of the genome, unique for a species. The modern gene drives use the precise CRISPR base editing technologies to spread to the population. In the off chance that the DNA encoding the gene drive will enter the reproductive cells of an individual from the other species, the editing system will have no template to act upon and the gene will be lost. One may argue that CRISPR has a chance for off-target activity, but a gene drive needs maximum efficiency to act as a gene drive. If the CRISPR doesnt work at 100%, the DNA sequence will be subject to the typical laws of inheritance and will disappear from the genetic pool

The ability to introduce genetic information to a wild population, which will spread to every individual, is unfortunately a dual use technology. The technology can theoretically be exploited to make biological weapons, though theres no indication that such a weapon is or has been developed. As gene drives can work well across many generations and require a large amount of offspring, they are unable to directly harm humans, crops, and farm animals. But a gene drive could be used to enhance the fitness of a crop-eating insect or a disease-carrying rodent.

The solution to this potential hazard is more research (and definitely not a research moratorium). Anyone with the means (which are considerable, so no lone bioterrorists or rogue scientists) and intent to cause harm can already research into such applications and will ignore aUN-imposed technology ban. The research community needs to develop the means to detect and monitor any malicious gene drive release and counter any offensive use.

The question on who and how should approve gene drive projects isnt easy to answer. A gene drive isnt contained by country borders, and the outdated GMO regulation framework existing in most countries is scientifically outdated and practically inadequate to handle such applications.

Moreover, the technology cannot be monopolized by a few countries or private companies. Each project is different. The approval should be a result of consensus among numerous stakeholders. There should also be a defined way to monitor how the gene drive spreads and how to handle liability claims if there are negative effects.

With populism growing and fewer people willing to trust the judgment of regulators and scientists, the rhetoric around complex innovations has become increasingly polarized, with both sides stuck fighting a high-stakes battle for public opinion. The issue is complex, and any decisions cannot be left to scientists, state organizations, and companies alone. But it also cannot be left solely in the hands of environmental organizations with little or no understanding of the science and with an ideological agenda that doesnt necessarily serve the public.

Environmental groups have often resorted to hyperbole as the debate over gene drives has unfolded. At the UN Convention on Biological Diversity in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, in 2018, a coalition of activists compared gene drives to the atomic bomb and accused researchers of using malaria as a Trojan horse to cover up the development of agricultural gene drives for corporate profit.A handful of small NGOs in the US, collectively known as SynBioWatch, have taken to describing gene-drive researchers as a cabal. The Canadian anti-biotechnology organization ETC Group claims aggressively spreads misinformation on social media, including claims that gene-drive honeybees could supposedly be controlled with a beam of light.

Meanwhile, Florida Keys is experiencing the largest dengue fever outbreak in a decade, with close to 40 cases already documented. The outbreak has led the Florida Keys Mosquito Control District to enter a partnership with UK-based, US-owned Oxitec that could lead to the Keys becoming the first U.S. trial site for genetically modified Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.

With a technology that can prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths per year, it is unethical to peremptorily ban it because it doesnt fit a few peoples worldview of what is natural. One may argue that governments and regulators should have no say whether one species should go extinct or not. But one can also question why activist groups in North America or Europe should be able to insert themselves in life and death decisions, preventing initiatives across the globe that could save millions of lives and protect our populations health and crops, and promote biological diversity.

Kostas Vavitsas, PhD, is a Senior Research Associate at the University of Athens, Greece. He is also a steering committee member of EUSynBioS. Follow him on Twitter@konvavitsas

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Viewpoint: Is there a scientific basis to ban gene drive technology that can rid us of virus-carrying rodents and mosquitoes? - Genetic Literacy...

Emotional intelligence helps us to recognize how our emotions affect our behavior and how to adjust our reactions in stressful work and life situations.

This matters more in the workplace than you may realize. One study found that EQ is the top predictor of performance and accounts for 58% of success across all job types. This skill has even been found to increase annual pay by around $29,000 and be present in 90% of top performers.

In other words, emotional intelligence is a skill sought by many employers. So, how do you build yours?

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Emotions are the drivers behind anxiety and stress. In another knowledge-packed course, you'll be given all the tools to build your emotional resilience. Learning how to adapt to stressful situations is a skill everyone needs in all facets of life. And yes, of course EQ plays a big role in decision-making. One 53-lesson course asks you to investigate your rationality in decision-making, your objectiveness when working with others, and your problem-solving skills.

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Sperm don't slither, they swim in a corkscrew motion - Big Think

May 26, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is having tough economic impacts on Arizonans, with fewer work hours as well as job losses and furloughs, according to a new poll by Arizona State University.

About 80% of the 813 respondents said they are very concerned or concerned about both the economy and the health of their loved ones and essential workers, according to the poll that was conducted by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy at ASU in conjunction with the Arizona Republic.

These data points are a snapshot in time, said Andrea Whitsett, director of the institute, which is a nonpartisan center that researches policy issues such as education, health and safety.

The Perceptions of the Pandemic and Its Effects poll was taken April 24 to May 7, before the states soft reopening on May 8. More surveys will be needed to fully see the impact of the pandemic, Whitsett said.

This is a rapidly evolving situation, she said in a webinar that showed the results.

But you look at this data and it invites further inquiry and qualitative research that can help us answer the why.

More than half of the respondents who were working before the pandemic have experienced negative economic consequences: 27% are working fewer hours, 14% lost their jobs and 11% have been furloughed. Those most likely to be affected by furloughs and layoffs are in the 1824 age group, those with lower incomes and those without a college degree. Five percent of respondents said they lost health insurance.

In one of the most interesting results, 16% of all respondents reported that they had missed a rent or mortgage payment, but among people in households earning more than $150,000, it was 35%. There could be several reasons for that, according to David Schlinkert, senior policy analyst for the Morrison Institute.

Something we brainstormed as a team was that potentially, people are refinancing and not paying (the mortgage) for a month, he said.

This doesnt ask if its a primary residence, so you could have individuals with multiple homes that arent paying, and you could also have people using rental properties in Airbnb and VRBO and if they have lots of them, theyre not paying rent, he said.

Overall, more than two-thirds of respondents report that they have reduced their spending, and 40% say they are struggling financially due to the pandemic.

The survey asked more than 100 questions on a wide variety of topics. Other results include:

The overwhelming majority of respondents 85% say they are taking precautions to avoid catching and/or spreading COVID-19.

But 44% said they are upset that they have been forced to discontinue normal activities.

Overall, 38% of respondents reported that their mental health has suffered under the pandemic.

The highest percentages of people agreeing that their mental health suffered were those who identify as nonbinary, 67%; those with a household income of $150,000 or more, 58%; people who identify as LGBTQ, 55%; those in the 35-44 age group, 52%; those who have earned a masters degree or higher, 51%; and people who live in urban areas, 48%.

Nearly 20% said they used telemedicine for the first time since the start of the pandemic, and 84% of those people were satisfied with it.

About 23% percent of respondents did not work from home before the pandemic but were doing so when they were polled, while 31% were still going to their place of employment as usual.

Also, 60% of all respondents believe teleworking is effective and 55% believe it should continue, although 55% also believe it reduces important personal connections.

More than half of the respondents 57% agreed that the November general election should be conducted by all-mail ballot.

The poll, taken before the state started reopening May 8, found some hesitation in immediately going back out.

About 25% of respondents said it would take weeks for them to feel ready to go to movie theaters and bars, while 40% said months or longer. Overall, 48% said it would take months or longer for them to feel comfortable going to sporting events.

When asked about the response to the pandemic, 42% say their K-12 school administration has been excellent or good. The rating of excellent or good for other institutions: state government, 35%; federal government, 32%; county, 31%, and municipal, 27%.

Of the respondents who are American Indian or Alaska Natives, 29% said their tribal governments response was excellent or good.

When asked to respond to the statement, The right balance has been struck between civil liberties and public health in the COVID-19 response, 48% agreed. But 34% agreed that No, more priority should be placed on public health, and 18% agreed that More priority should be placed on civil liberties.

Three-quarters of respondents say they have the necessary technology for their children to fully engage in learning, and two-thirds say their children are doing so. About 57% are satisfied with the educational opportunities offered by their school, but 53% worry their children will fall behind.

There were some differences by political party.

While overall, 33% of respondents agreed with the statement that people are overreacting to the pandemic, the breakdown by political party was: Democrats, 25%, Republicans, 41%, Green Party, 75%; Libertarian, 50%; unregistered, 31%.

Republicans were more likely to agree that the damage to the economy is worse than the impact on public health: 63% compared with 41% of Democrats and 50% overall.

Democrats were more likely than Republicans to agree that the November election should be done by mail: 74% compared with 45%.

And there was a wide split on agreement with the statement, The U.S. should provide health coverage for all citizens:" Democrats, 81%; Republicans, 36%; overall, 61%.

Men are more likely to agree with the statement, I think people are overreacting to COVID-19:" 41%, compared with 25% of women. Overall, 33% of respondents agreed.

Men are more likely to agree that theyre upset that theyve been forced to discontinue normal activities: 49% compared with 39% of women.

Men are also more likely to agree that the damage to the economy will be worse than the impact of COVID-19 on public health: 56% compared with 44% of women. Overall, 50% of respondents agreed with that statement.

Affluent Arizonans had differing views about the pandemic. Of people in households earning more than $150,000:

56% agreed that people are overreacting, compared with 33% overall.

62% are upset at being forced to discontinue normal activities, compared with 44% overall.

62% say the federal response has been excellent or good compared with 32% overall and 18% of people earning less than $25,000.

88% in this group say their children are actively engaged in learning compared with 53% of those with household incomes below $25,000. Yet 87% of the wealthiest group are concerned that the pandemics disruption will decrease their childrens likelihood of graduating from high school, compared with 43% overall.

More than half the respondents 53% say they are cooking more during the pandemic, while 28% are exercising more.

About 19% have increased charitable giving, 28% are helping neighbors more frequently and 29% are supporting small businesses.

Its always nice to have a little bit of good news during these tough times, said Erica Quintana, senior policy analyst.

Top image of Tempe by Deanna Dent/ASU Now.Infographic by Alex Cabrera/ASU Media Relations and Strategic Communications.

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The evolutionary reason why you should FaceTime Mom and Dad - ASU Now

In 2007, a group of researchers reported a startling discovery: They had created sperm-like cells out of stem cells taken from the bone marrow of human men. Two years later, however, the study was retracted due to charges of plagiarism. Thirteen years later, the ability to create functional human sperm out of stem cells remains elusive.

Scientists have been trying to figure out how to create functioning human gametes eggs and sperm from stem cells for 20 or 30 years, says Vittorio Sebastiano, a stem cell biologist at Stanford University whose research focuses on reproductive biology. Doing so would help people struggling with infertility have children and help scientists unlock the secrets of human development. Since 2007, scientists have made considerable progress on this front, creating healthy mouse pups from stem cell-generated gametes and even immature human egg cells. But there is still a long road ahead before scientists will be able to convert skin or bone marrow into babies.

We are trying to really find ways to efficiently, robustly generate germ cells that can be, in the short term, used to understand the biology of these concepts, but in the long term [used to be] able to restore fertility, says Sebastiano.

When the first baby conceived via in vitro fertilization (IVF) was born in 1978, it was a major step forward for reproductive science and a precursor to the stem cell research conducted by Sebastiano and others today, he says. But IVF is not an option for every individual or couple trying to have a biological child, including those who are born without gametes or who receive aggressive cancer treatments at a young age. This scientific technique would offer these individuals a new shot at reproduction.

The next major step came in the 2000s, with the creation of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs). These cells are taken from blood or skin cells and reprogrammed to behave like embryonic cells, which have the ability to develop into any type of cell in the body. Since then, researchers have been trying to figure out how to turn these embryonic-like cells into functional sperm and eggs.

A colony of induced pluripotent stem cells used to treat the rare genetic disorder Fanconi anemia. (Credit: Juan Carlos Izpisua Belmonte, Salk Institute for Biological Studies)

Part of what has made this work so challenging is that scientists havent been able to fully grasp what happens in a human embryo during normal development, says Sebastiano. Scientists understand this process in mice because the rodents are easy to study in the lab. But ethical restrictions and technical factors (like having access to the embryos at just the right point in time) make this phenomenon hard to study in people, he says.

Despite the roadblocks, scientists have made significant progress in the last 10 years. In 2012, a group of researchers in Japan created fertile mouse eggs from iPSCs and used those eggs to breed healthy mouse pups. In [the] mouse, the whole circle has already been completed, says Sebastiano. Now it has been shown by a couple of groups in the UK and in Japan that you can generate embryonic-like cells from mice and then you can actually push these cells to become eggs or sperm, fully functional.

In 2018, the same group of Japanese scientists made another major breakthrough. Using human blood cells and the pluripotent stem cell technique, they managed to produce immature human eggs.

Similar efforts to create sperm are not as far along, says Sebastiano. Several efforts over the years have purported to create sperm-like cells, including the 2007 blood marrow study. A much-heralded study published in 2014 also made major news, but Sebastiano says the development of the cells in that study didnt go far beyond the earliest stages of differentiation.

But, we are actively working on it, says Sebastiano. Probably in the next few years we will be able to generate fully functional sperm and fully functional oocytes. Then, the question will be how do scientists test the quality of these gametes, he says.

The only way to fully assess the quality and functionality of a sperm or egg is to use it to, well, try to fertilize another gamete and produce a baby. Thats why this work has to be approached with the utmost care, says Sebastiano. He hypothesizes that once scientists have developed techniques that they think produce mature human oocytes and sperm, the next step will be testing these techniques in primates. That way, researchers can follow the entire life of individual animals produced from this technique to see if any unexpected problems develop, he says.

Sebastiano has no doubt that one day, these stem cells could help individuals struggling with infertility to produce healthy children. This, along with a fascination with biological development, is what drives Sebastianos work. There are also, of course, significant ethical considerations that have to be carefully considered. This technique has the potential to affect human life on a generational level, he notes. And many people also raise concerns about other future consequences, like the ability to create designer babies or produce offspring from hairs stolen from unsuspecting celebrities. Bioethics experts have written about the need to start working through the medical and legal issues around this technique now, before it is viable.

There is a need actually to develop this, but since we are really dealing with a very unique cell type we need to be cautious, says Sebastiano.

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How Close Are We To Making Babies from Bone Marrow? - Discover Magazine

What happens next?

Four months into the severe acute respiratory syndromecoronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, we still do not know enough about postrecovery immune protection and environmental and seasonal influences on transmission to predict transmission dynamics accurately. However, we do know that humans are seasonally afflicted by other, less severe coronaviruses. Kissler et al. used existing data to build a deterministic model of multiyear interactions between existing coronaviruses, with a focus on the United States, and used this to project the potential epidemic dynamics and pressures on critical care capacity over the next 5 years. The long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 strongly depends on immune responses and immune cross-reactions between the coronaviruses, as well as the timing of introduction of the new virus into a population. One scenario is that a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 could occur as far into the future as 2025.

Science, this issue p. 860

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndromecoronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

The ongoing severe acute respiratory syndromecoronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused nearly 500,000 detected cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness and claimed >20,000 lives worldwide as of 26 March 2020 (1). Experience from China, Italy, and the United States demonstrates that COVID-19 can overwhelm even the healthcare capacities of well-resourced nations (24). With no pharmaceutical treatments available, interventions have focused on contact tracing, quarantine, and social distancing. The required intensity, duration, and urgency of these responses will depend both on how the initial pandemic wave unfolds and on the subsequent transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. During this initial pandemic wave, many countries have adopted social distancing measures and some, like China, are gradually lifting them after achieving adequate control of transmission. However, to mitigate the possibility of resurgences of infection, prolonged or intermittent periods of social distancing may be required. After the initial pandemic wave, SARS-CoV-2 might follow its closest genetic relative, SARS-CoV-1, and be eradicated by intensive public health measures after causing a brief but intense pandemic (5). Increasingly, public health authorities consider this scenario unlikely (6). Alternatively, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could resemble that of pandemic influenza by circulating seasonally after causing an initial global wave of infection (7). Such a scenario could reflect the previous emergence of known human coronaviruses (HCoVs) from zoonotic origins, e.g., HCoV-OC43 (8). Distinguishing between these scenarios is key for formulating an effective, sustained public health response to SARS-CoV-2.

The pandemic and postpandemic transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 will depend on factors including the degree of seasonal variation in transmission, the duration of immunity, and the degree of cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, as well as the intensity and timing of control measures. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the Betacoronavirus genus, which includes the SARS-CoV-1 coronavirus, the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus, and two other HCoVs, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. The SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses cause severe illness with approximate case fatality rates of 9 and 36%, respectively, but the transmission of both has remained limited (9). HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 infections may be asymptomatic or associated with mild to moderate upper respiratory tract illness; these HCoVs are considered the second most common cause of the common cold (9). HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 cause annual wintertime outbreaks of respiratory illness in temperate regions (10, 11), suggesting that wintertime climate and host behaviors may facilitate transmission, as is true for influenza (1214). Immunity to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 appears to wane appreciably within 1 year (15), whereas SARS-CoV-1 infection can induce longer-lasting immunity (16). The betacoronaviruses can induce immune responses against one another: SARS-CoV-1 infection can generate neutralizing antibodies against HCoV-OC43 (16) and HCoV-OC43 infection can generate cross-reactive antibodies against SARS-CoV-1 (17). Although investigations into the spectrum of illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 are ongoing, recent evidence indicates that most patients experience mild to moderate illness with more limited occurrence of severe lower respiratory infection (18). Current COVID-19 case fatality rates are estimated to lie between 0.6 and 3.5% (19, 20), suggesting lower severity than SARS-CoV-1 and MERS but higher severity than HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. The high infectiousness near the start of often mild symptoms makes SARS-CoV-2 considerably harder to control with case-based interventions such as intensive testing, isolation, and tracing compared with the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses (21).

Intensive testing and case-based interventions have so far formed the centerpiece of control efforts in some places, including Singapore and Hong Kong (22). Many other countries are adopting measures such as social distancing, closing schools and workplaces, and limiting the sizes of gatherings. The goal of these strategies is to reduce the peak intensity of the pandemic (i.e., flatten the curve) (22), reducing the risk of overwhelming health systems and buying time to develop treatments and vaccines. For social distancing to have reversed the pandemic in China, the effective reproduction number (Re; defined as the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infected individual in the population after there is some immunity or interventions have been put in place) must have declined by at least 50 to 60%, assuming a baseline basic reproduction number (R0; defined as the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infected individual in a completely susceptible population) between 2 and 2.5 (22). Through intensive control measures, Shenzhen was able to reduce the Re by an estimated 85% (23). However, it is unclear how well these declines in R0 might generalize to other settings: recent data from Seattle suggest that the R0 has only declined to about 1.4, or by about 30 to 45%, assuming a baseline R0 between 2 and 2.5 (24). Furthermore, social distancing measures may need to last for months to effectively control transmission and mitigate the possibility of resurgence (25).

A key metric for the success of social distancing interventions is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. Modeling studies (26) and experience from the Wuhan outbreak (2) indicate that critical care capacities even in high-income countries can be exceeded many times over if distancing measures are not implemented quickly or strongly enough. To alleviate these problems, approaches to increasing critical care capacity have included rapid construction or repurposing of hospital facilities and consideration of increased manufacturing and distribution of ventilators (2730). Treatments that reduce the proportion of infections that lead to severe illness could have a similar effect of reducing burden on healthcare systems.

Here, we identify viral, environmental, and immunologic factors that in combination will determine the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We integrate our findings in a mathematical model to project potential scenarios for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through the pandemic and postpandemic periods and identify key data still needed to determine which scenarios are likely to play out. Then, using the model, we assess the duration and intensity of social distancing measures that might be needed to maintain control of SARS-CoV-2 in the coming months under both existing and expanded critical care capacities.

We used data from the United States to model betacoronavirus transmission in temperate regions and to project the possible dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection through the year 2025. We first assessed the role of seasonal variation, duration of immunity, and cross-immunity on the transmissibility of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 in the United States. We used the weekly percentage of positive laboratory tests for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (31) multiplied by the weekly population-weighted proportion of physician visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) (32, 33) to approximate historical betacoronavirus incidence in the United States to within a scaling constant. This proxy is proportional to incidence under a set of assumptions described in the supplementary materials and methods. To quantify variation in transmission strength over time, we estimated the weekly Re (34, 35). The Res for each of the betacoronaviruses displayed a seasonal pattern, with annual peaks in the Re slightly preceding those of the incidence curves (fig. S1). We limited our analysis to in-season estimates that were based on adequate samples, defined as week 40 through week 20 of the following year, roughly October to May. For both HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, the Re typically reached its peak between October and November and its trough between February and May. Over the five seasons included in our data (2014 to 2019), the median peak Re was 1.85 (range: 1.61 to 2.21) for HCoV-HKU1 and 1.56 (range: 1.54 to 1.80) for HCoV-OC43 after removing outliers (five for HCoV-HKU1, zero for HCoV-OC43). Results were similar using various choices of incidence proxy and serial interval distributions (figs. S1 to S3).

To quantify the relative contribution of immunity versus seasonal forcing on the transmission dynamics of the betacoronaviruses, we adapted a regression model (36) that expressed the Re for each strain (HKU1 and OC43) as the product of a baseline transmissibility constant (related to the R0) and the proportion of the population susceptible (hereafter referred to as susceptibles) at the start of each season, the depletion of susceptibles because of infection with the same strain, the depletion of susceptibles because of infection with the other strain, and a spline to capture further unexplained seasonal variation in transmission strength (seasonal forcing). These covariates were able to explain most of the observed variability in the Res (adjusted R2: 74.3%). The estimated multiplicative effects of each of these covariates on the weekly Re are depicted in Fig. 1. As expected, depletion of susceptibles for each betacoronavirus strain was negatively correlated with transmissibility of that strain. Depletion of susceptibles for each strain was also negatively correlated with the Re of the other strain, providing evidence of cross-immunity. Per incidence proxy unit, the effect of the cross-immunizing strain was always less than the effect of the strain itself (table S1), but the overall impact of cross-immunity on the Re could still be substantial if the cross-immunizing strain had a large outbreak (e.g., HCoV-OC43 in 20142015 and 20162017). The ratio of cross-immunization to self-immunization effects was larger for HCoV-HKU1 than for HCoV-OC43, suggesting that HCoV-OC43 confers stronger cross-immunity. Seasonal forcing appears to drive the rise in transmissibility at the start of the season (late October through early December), whereas depletion of susceptibles plays a comparatively larger role in the decline in transmissibility toward the end of the season. The strain-season coefficients were fairly consistent across seasons for each strain and lacked a clear correlation with incidence in prior seasons, consistent with experimental results showing substantial waning of immunity within 1 year (15).

Shown are the estimated multiplicative effects of HCoV-HKU1 incidence (red), HCoV-OC43 incidence (blue), and seasonal forcing (gold) on weekly Res of HCoV-HKU1 (top) and HCoV-OC43 (bottom), with 95% confidence intervals. The black dot (with 95% confidence interval) plotted at the start of each season is the estimated coefficient for that strain and season compared with the 20142015 HCoV-HKU1 season. The seasonal forcing spline is set to 1 at the first week of the season (no intercept). On the x-axis, the first week in season corresponds to epidemiological week 40.

We integrated these findings into a two-strain ordinary differential equation susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) compartmental model to describe the transmission dynamics of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (fig. S4). The model provided a good fit to both the weekly incidence proxies for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 and to the estimated weekly Res (Fig. 2). According to the best-fit model parameters, the R0 for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 varies between 1.7 in the summer and 2.2 in the winter and peaks in the second week of January, consistent with the seasonal spline estimated from the data. Also in agreement with the findings of the regression model, the duration of immunity for both strains in the best-fit SEIRS model is ~45 weeks, and each strain induces cross-immunity against the other, although the cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 infection induces against HCoV-HKU1 is stronger than the reverse.

(A) Weekly percent positive laboratory tests multiplied by percent ILI for HCoV-OC43 (blue) and HCoV-HKU1 (red) in the United States between 5 July 2014 and 29 June 2019 (solid lines) with simulated output from the best-fit SEIRS transmission model (dashed lines). (B and C) Weekly Re values estimated using the WallingaTeunis method (points) and simulated Re from the best-fit SEIRS transmission model (line) for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. The opacity of each point is determined by the relative percent ILI multiplied by percent positive laboratory tests in that week relative to the maximum percent ILI multiplied by percent positive laboratory tests for that strain across the study period, which reflects uncertainty in the Re estimate; estimates are more certain (darker points) in weeks with higher incidence.

Next, we incorporated a third betacoronavirus into the dynamic transmission model to represent SARS-CoV-2. We assumed a latent period of 4.6 days (26, 3739) and an infectious period of 5 days, informed by the best-fit values for the other betacoronaviruses (table S8). We allowed the cross-immunities, duration of immunity, maximum R0, and degree of seasonal variation in R0 to vary. We assumed an establishment time of sustained transmission on 11 March 2020, when the World Health Organization declared the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak a pandemic (40), and we varied the establishment time in a sensitivity analysis (fig. S7). For a representative set of parameter values, we determined annual SARS-CoV-2 infections (tables S2 to S4 and fig. S7) and the peak annual SARS-CoV-2 prevalence (tables S5 to S7 and fig. S7) through 2025. We summarized the postpandemic SARS-CoV-2 dynamics into the categories of annual outbreaks, biennial outbreaks, sporadic outbreaks, or virtual elimination (tables S2 to S7). Overall, shorter durations of immunity and smaller degrees of cross-immunity from the other betacoronaviruses were associated with greater total incidence of infection by SARS-CoV-2, and autumn establishments and smaller seasonal fluctuations in transmissibility were associated with larger pandemic peak sizes. Model simulations demonstrated the following key points.

In all modeled scenarios, SARS-CoV-2 was capable of producing a substantial outbreak regardless of establishment time. Spring/summer establishments favored outbreaks with lower peaks, whereas autumn/winter establishments led to more acute outbreaks (tables S5 to S7 and fig. S7). The 5-year cumulative incidence proxies were comparable for all establishment times (tables S5 to S7).

Much like pandemic influenza, many scenarios lead to SARS-CoV-2 entering into long-term circulation alongside the other human betacoronaviruses (e.g., Fig. 3, A and B), possibly in annual, biennial, or sporadic patterns, over the next 5 years (tables S2 to S4). Short-term immunity (~40 weeks, similar to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1) favors the establishment of annual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, whereas longer-term immunity (2 years) favors biennial outbreaks.

These plots depict the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (black, cases per 1000 people), HCoV-OC43 (blue, percent positive multiplied by percent ILI), and HCoV-HKU1 (red, percent positive multiplied by percent ILI) for a representative set of possible pandemic and postpandemic scenarios. The scenarios were obtained by varying the cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and HCoVs OC43/HKU1 (3X) and vice versa (X3), the duration of SARS-CoV-2 immunity (1/3), and the seasonal variation in R0 (f), assuming an pandemic establishment time of 11 March 2020 (depicted as a vertical gray bar). Parameter values used to generate each plot are listed below; all other parameters were held at the values listed in table S8. (A) A short duration (1/3 = 40 weeks) of SARS-CoV-2 immunity could yield annual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. (B) Longer-term SARS-CoV-2 immunity (1/3 = 104 weeks) could yield biennial outbreaks, possibly with smaller outbreaks in the intervening years. (C) Higher seasonal variation in transmission (f = 0.4) would reduce the peak size of the invasion wave but could lead to more severe wintertime outbreaks thereafter [compare with (B)]. (D) Long-term immunity (1/3 = infinity) to SARS-CoV-2 could lead to elimination of the virus. (E) However, a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 could occur as late as 2024 after a period of apparent elimination if the duration of immunity is intermediate (1/3 = 104 weeks) and if HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 impart intermediate cross-immunity against SARS-CoV-2 (3X = 0.3). (A) 3X = 0.3, X3 = 0, 1/3 = 40 weeks, f = 0.2. (B) 3X = 0.7, X3 = 0, 1/3 = 104 weeks, f = 0.2. (C) 3X = 0.7, X3 = 0, 1/3 = 104 weeks, f = 0.4. (D) 3X = 0.7, X3 = 0, 1/3 = infinity, f = 0.2. (E) 3X = 0.3, X3 = 0.3, 1/3 = 104 weeks, f = 0.4.

The amount of seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission could differ between geographic locations, as is the case for influenza (12). The R0 for influenza in New York declines in the summer by ~40%, whereas in Florida the decline is closer to 20%, which aligns with the estimated decline in R0 for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (table S8). A 40% summertime decline in R0 would reduce the unmitigated peak incidence of the initial SARS-CoV-2 pandemic wave. However, stronger seasonal forcing leads to a greater accumulation of susceptible individuals during periods of low transmission in the summer, leading to recurrent outbreaks with higher peaks in the postpandemic period (Fig. 3C).

Long-term immunity consistently led to effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2 and a lower overall incidence of infection. If SARS-CoV-2 induces cross-immunity against HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, then the incidence of all betacoronaviruses could decline and even virtually disappear (Fig. 3D). The virtual elimination of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 would be possible if SARS-CoV-2 induced 70% cross-immunity against them, which is the same estimated level of cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 induces against HCoV-HKU1.

Even if SARS-CoV-2 immunity only lasts for 2 years, mild (30%) cross-immunity from HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 could effectively eliminate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 for up to 3 years before a resurgence in 2024, as long as SARS-CoV-2 does not fully die out (Fig. 3E).

To illustrate these scenarios (Fig. 3), we used a maximum wintertime R0 of 2.2, informed by the estimated R0 for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (table S8). This is a low but plausible estimate of the R0 for SARS-CoV-2 (41). Increasing the wintertime R0 to 2.6 leads to more intense outbreaks but the qualitative range of scenarios remains similar (fig. S8).

Regardless of the postpandemic transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, urgent measures are required to address the ongoing pandemic. Pharmaceutical treatments and vaccines may require months to years to develop and test, leaving nonpharmaceutical interventions as the only immediate means of curbing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Social distancing measures have been adopted in many countries with widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The necessary duration and intensity of these measures has yet to be characterized. To address this, we adapted the SEIRS transmission model (fig. S9) to capture moderate, mild, or asymptomatic infections (95.6% of infections), infections that lead to hospitalization but not critical care (3.08%), and infections that require critical care (1.32%) (26). We assumed the worst-case scenario of no cross-immunity from HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 against SARS-CoV-2, which makes the SARS-CoV-2 model unaffected by the transmission dynamics of those viruses. Informed by the transmission model fits, we assumed a latent period of 4.6 days and an infectious period of 5 days, in agreement with estimates from other studies (26). The mean duration of noncritical hospital stay was 8 days for those not requiring critical care and 6 days for those requiring critical care, and the mean duration of critical care was 10 days (26). We varied the peak (wintertime) R0 between 2.2 and 2.6 and allowed the summertime R0 to vary between 60% (i.e., relatively strong seasonality) and 100% (i.e., no seasonality) of the wintertime R0, guided by the inferred seasonal forcing for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (table S8).

We used the open critical care capacity of the United States, 0.89 free beds per 10,000 adults, as a benchmark for critical care demand (2). We simulated pandemic trajectories that were based on a pandemic establishment time of 11 March 2020. We simulated social distancing by reducing R0 by a fixed proportion, which ranged between 0 and 60%. We assessed one-time social distancing interventions, for which R0 was reduced by up to 60% for a fixed duration of time (up to 20 weeks) or indefinitely starting 2 weeks after pandemic establishment. We also assessed intermittent social distancing measures, for which social distancing was turned on when the prevalence of infection rose above a threshold and off when it fell below a second, lower threshold, with the goal of keeping the number of critical care patients below 0.89 per 10,000 adults. An on threshold of 35 cases per 10,000 people achieved this goal in both the seasonal and nonseasonal cases with wintertime R0 = 2.2. We chose five cases per 10,000 adults as the off threshold. These thresholds were chosen to qualitatively illustrate the intermittent intervention scenario; in practice, the thresholds will need to be tuned to local epidemic dynamics and hospital capacities. We performed a sensitivity analysis around these threshold values (figs. S10 and S11) to assess how they affected the duration and frequency of the interventions. We also implemented a model with extra compartments for the latent period, infectious period, and each hospitalization period so that the waiting times in these states were gamma distributed instead of being exponentially distributed (see the supplementary materials and methods and figs. S16 and S17). Finally, we assessed the impact of doubling critical care capacity (and the associated on/off thresholds) on the frequency and overall duration of the social distancing measures.

We evaluated the impact of one-time social distancing efforts of varying effectiveness and duration on the peak and timing of the pandemic with and without seasonal forcing. When transmission was not subject to seasonal forcing, one-time social distancing measures reduced the pandemic peak size (Fig. 4 and fig. S12). Under all scenarios, there was a resurgence of infection when the simulated social distancing measures were lifted. However, longer and more stringent temporary social distancing did not always correlate with greater reductions in pandemic peak size. In the case of a 20-week period of social distancing with a 60% reduction in R0, for example (Fig. 4D), the resurgence peak size was nearly the same as the peak size of the uncontrolled pandemic: the social distancing was so effective that virtually no population immunity was built. The greatest reductions in peak size come from social distancing intensity and duration that divide cases approximately equally between peaks (42).

(A to E) Simulated prevalence of COVID-19 infections (solid) and critical COVID-19 cases (dashed) after establishment on 11 March 2020 with a period of social distancing (shaded blue region) instated 2 weeks later, with the duration of social distancing lasting (A) 4 weeks, (B) 8 weeks, (C) 12 weeks, (D) 20 weeks, and (E) indefinitely. There is no seasonal forcing; R0 was held constant at 2.2 (see fig. S12 for R0 = 2.6). The effectiveness of social distancing varied from none to a 60% reduction in R0. Cumulative infection sizes are depicted beside each prevalence plot (F to J) with the herd immunity threshold (horizontal black bar). Of the temporary distancing scenarios, long-term (20-week), moderately effective (20 to 40%) social distancing yields the smallest overall peak and total outbreak size.

For simulations with seasonal forcing, the postintervention resurgent peak could exceed the size of the unconstrained pandemic (Fig. 5 and fig. S13), both in terms of peak prevalence and in terms of total number infected. Strong social distancing maintains a high proportion of susceptible individuals in the population, leading to an intense resurgence when R0 rises in the late autumn and winter. None of the one-time interventions was effective at maintaining the prevalence of critical cases below the critical care capacity.

(A to E) Simulated prevalence assuming strong seasonal forcing (wintertime R0 = 2.2, summertime R0 = 1.3, a 40% decline) of COVID-19 infections (solid) and critical COVID-19 cases (dashed) after establishment on 11 March 2020 with a period of social distancing (shaded blue region) instated 2 weeks later, with the duration of social distancing lasting (A) 4 weeks, (B) 8 weeks, (C) 12 weeks, (D) 20 weeks, and (E) indefinitely (see fig. S13 for a scenario with wintertime R0 = 2.6). The effectiveness of social distancing varied from none to a 60% reduction in R0. Cumulative infection sizes are depicted beside each prevalence plot (F to J) with the herd immunity threshold (horizontal black bar). Preventing widespread infection during the summer can flatten and prolong the pandemic but can also lead to a high density of susceptible individuals who could become infected in an intense autumn wave.

Intermittent social distancing could prevent critical care capacity from being exceeded (Fig. 6 and fig. S14). Because of the natural history of infection, there is an ~3-week lag between the start of social distancing and the peak critical care demand. When transmission is seasonally forced, summertime social distancing can be less frequent than when R0 remains constant at its maximal wintertime value throughout the year. The length of time between distancing measures increases as the pandemic continues because the accumulation of immunity in the population slows the resurgence of infection. Under current critical care capacities, however, the overall duration of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic could last into 2022, requiring social distancing measures to be in place between 25% (for wintertime R0 = 2 and seasonality; fig. S11A) and 75% (for wintertime R0 = 2.6 and no seasonality; fig. S10C) of that time. When the latent, infectious, and hospitalization periods are gamma distributed, incidence rises more quickly, requiring a lower threshold for implementing distancing measures (25 cases per 10,000 individuals for R0 = 2.2 in our model) and more frequent interventions (fig. S16).

SARS-Cov-2 prevalence (black curves) and critical cases (red curves) under intermittent social distancing (shaded blue regions) without seasonal forcing (A and C) and with seasonal forcing (B and D). Distancing yields a 60% reduction in R0. Critical care capacity is depicted by the solid horizontal black bars, and the on/off thresholds for social distancing are depicted by the dashed horizontal lines. (A) and (B) are the scenarios with current critical care capacity in the United States and (C) and (D) are the scenarios with double the current critical care capacity. The maximal wintertime R0 is 2.2 and for the seasonal scenarios the summertime R0 is 1.3 (40% decline). Prevalence is in black and critical care cases are in red. To the right of each main plot (E to H), the proportion immune over time is depicted in green with the herd immunity threshold (horizontal black bar).

Increasing critical care capacity allows population immunity to be accumulated more rapidly, reducing the overall duration of the pandemic and the total length of social distancing measures (Fig. 6, C and D). Although the frequency and duration of the social distancing measures were similar between the scenarios with current and expanded critical care capacity, the pandemic would conclude by July 2022 and social distancing measures could be fully relaxed by early to mid-2021, depending again on the degree of seasonal forcing of transmission (Fig. 6, C and D). Introducing a hypothetical treatment that halved the proportion of infections that required hospitalization had a similar effect as doubling critical care capacity (fig. S15).

Here, we examined a range of likely SARS-CoV-2 transmission scenarios through 2025 and assessed nonpharmaceutical interventions that could mitigate the intensity of the current outbreak. If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 wanes in the same manner as related coronaviruses, then recurrent wintertime outbreaks are likely to occur in coming years. The total incidence of SARS-CoV-2 through 2025 will depend crucially on this duration of immunity and, to a lesser degree, on the amount of cross-immunity that exists between HCoV-OC43/HCoV-HKU1 and SARS-CoV-2. The intensity of the initial pandemic wave will depend fundamentally on the R0 at the time of pandemic establishment: If establishment occurs in the autumn when the Re is rising, which could occur in countries that maintain pandemic control by contact tracing and quarantine through the summer, or if SARS-CoV-2 is not subject to the same summertime decline in transmissibility as HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, then a high peak prevalence of infection is likely. One-time social distancing efforts may push the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peak into the autumn, potentially exacerbating the load on critical care resources if there is increased wintertime transmissibility. Intermittent social distancing might maintain critical care demand within current thresholds, but widespread surveillance will be required to time the distancing measures correctly and avoid overshooting critical care capacity. New therapeutics, vaccines, or other interventions such as aggressive contact tracing and quarantineimpractical now in many places but more practical once case numbers have been reduced and testing scaled up (43)could alleviate the need for stringent social distancing to maintain control of the pandemic. In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing (or sustained distancing if it is highly effective) may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden. To shorten the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and to ensure adequate care for the critically ill, increasing critical care capacity and developing additional interventions are urgent priorities. Meanwhile, serological testing is required to understand the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2, which will help to determine the postpandemic dynamics of the virus. Sustained, widespread surveillance will be needed both in the short term to effectively implement intermittent social distancing measures and in the long term to assess the possibility of resurgences of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which could occur as late as 2025 even after a prolonged period of apparent elimination.

Our observations are consistent with other predictions of how SARS-CoV-2 transmission might unfold and with assessments of the mitigation efforts that might be needed to curb the current outbreak. A modeling study using data from Sweden found that seasonal establishment of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is likely in the postpandemic period (11). Observational and modeling studies (2, 26) have found that early implementation of strong social distancing is essential for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and that, in the absence of the development of new therapies or preventative measures such as aggressive case finding and quarantining (21), intermittent distancing measures may be the only way to avoid overwhelming critical care capacity while building population immunity. The observation that strong, temporary social distancing can lead to especially large resurgences agrees with data from the 1918 influenza pandemic in the United States (44), in which the size of the autumn 1918 peak of infection was inversely associated with that of a subsequent winter peak after interventions were no longer in place.

Our study was subject to a variety of limitations. Only five seasons of observational data on coronaviruses were available, although the incidence patterns resemble those from 10 years of data from a hospital in Sweden (11). We assumed that the spline coefficients were constant across all seasons but seasonal forcing likely differed from year to year because of underlying drivers. To keep the transmission model from becoming unreasonably complex, we assumed that there was no difference in the seasonal forcing, per-case force of infection, latent period, or infectious period across betacoronaviruses. However, our estimates for these values lie within the range of estimates from the literature. Although disease dynamics may differ by age, we did not have sufficient data to parameterize an age-structured model. We also did not directly model any effect from the opening of schools, which could lead to an additional boost in transmission strength in the early autumn (45). The transmission model is deterministic, so it cannot capture the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 extinction. It also does not incorporate geographic structure, so the possibility of spatially heterogeneous transmission cannot be assessed. The construction of spatially explicit models will become more feasible as more data on SARS-CoV-2 incidence become available; these will help to determine whether there are differences in seasonal forcing between geographic locations, as is the case for influenza (12), and will also help to assess the possibility of pandemic extinction while accounting for reintroductions. The timing and strength of postpandemic outbreaks may also depend on stochastic introductions from abroad, which can be assessed using more complex, global models.

We used percent test-positive multiplied by percent ILI to approximate coronavirus incidence up to a proportional constant; results were similar when using the raw number of positive tests and the raw percent test-positive as incidence proxies (fig. S1). Although the percent test-positive multiplied by percent ILI has been shown to be one of the best available proxies for influenza incidence (32), the conversion between this measure and the true incidence of coronavirus infections is unclear, so we do not make precise estimates of the overall coronavirus incidence. This conversion will undoubtedly depend on the particular population for which these estimates are being made. In a recent study, an estimated 4% of individuals with coronavirus sought medical care, and only a fraction of these were tested (46). In addition, the method that we adopted to estimate the Re depends on the serial interval distribution, which has not been well studied for commonly circulating human coronaviruses; we used the best-available evidence from SARS-CoV-1, the most closely related coronavirus to SARS-CoV-2.

Our findings generalize only to temperate regions, which contain 60% of the worlds population (47), and the size and intensity of outbreaks could be further modulated by differences in average interpersonal contact rates by location and the timing and effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions. The transmission dynamics of respiratory illnesses in tropical regions can be much more complex. However, we expect that if postpandemic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 does take hold in temperate regions, there will also be continued transmission in tropical regions seeded by the seasonal outbreaks to the north and south. With such reseeding, long-term disappearance of any strain becomes less likely (48), but according to our model, the Re of SARS-CoV-2 remains <1 during most of each period when that strain disappears, meaning that reseeding would shorten these disappearances only modestly.

Our findings indicate key data required to know how the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will unfold. Most crucially, serological studies could indicate the extent of population immunity and whether immunity wanes and at what rate. In our model, this rate is the key modulator of the total SARS-CoV-2 incidence in the coming years. Although long-lasting immunity would lead to lower overall incidence of infection, it would also complicate vaccine efficacy trials by contributing to low case numbers when those trials are conducted, as occurred with Zika virus (49). In our assessment of control measures in the initial pandemic period, we assumed that SARS-CoV-2 infection induces immunity that lasts for at least 2 years, but social distancing measures may need to be extended if SARS-CoV-2 immunity wanes more rapidly. In addition, if serological data reveal the existence of many undocumented asymptomatic infections that lead to immunity (50), less social distancing may be required. Serology could also indicate whether cross-immunity exists among SARS-CoV-2, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1, which could affect the postpandemic transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We anticipate that such cross-immunity would lessen the intensity of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, though some speculate that antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) induced by prior coronavirus infection may increase susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and exacerbate the severity of infection (51, 52). At present, there are limited data describing ADE between coronaviruses, but if it does exist, it may promote the cocirculation of betacoronavirus strains.

To implement intermittent social distancing, it will be necessary to carry out widespread viral testing for surveillance to monitor when the prevalence thresholds that trigger the beginning or end of distancing have been crossed. Without such surveillance, critical care bed availability might be used as a proxy for prevalence, but this metric is far from optimal because the lag between distancing and peak critical care demand could lead to frequent overrunning of critical care resources. Critical care resources are also at greater risk of being overrun if the infectious, latent, and hospitalized periods follow peaked distributions (e.g., gamma versus exponential). Measuring the distributions of these times, and not just their means, will help to set more effective thresholds for distancing interventions. Under some circumstances, intense social distancing may be able to reduce the prevalence of COVID-19 enough to warrant a shift in strategy to contact tracing and containment efforts, as has occurred in many parts of China (21, 23, 53). Still, countries that have achieved this level of control of the outbreak should prepare for the possibility of substantial resurgences of infection and a return to social distancing measures, especially if seasonal forcing contributes to a rise in transmissibility in the winter. Moreover, a winter peak for COVID-19 would coincide with peak influenza incidence (54), further straining health care systems.

Treatments or vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 would reduce the duration and intensity of the social distancing required to maintain control of the pandemic. Treatments could reduce the proportion of infections that require critical care and the duration of infectiousness, which would both directly and indirectly (through a reduction in R0) reduce the demand for critical care resources. A vaccine would accelerate the accumulation of immunity in the population, reducing the overall length of the pandemic and averting infections that might have resulted in a need for critical care. Furthermore, if there have been many undocumented immunizing infections, then the herd immunity threshold may be reached sooner than our models suggest. Nevertheless, SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated an ability to challenge robust healthcare systems, and the development and widespread adoption of pharmaceutical interventions will take months at best, so a period of sustained or intermittent social distancing will almost certainly be necessary.

In summary, the total incidence of COVID-19 illness over the next 5 years will depend critically upon whether it enters into regular circulation after the initial pandemic wave, which in turn depends primarily upon the duration of immunity that SARS-CoV-2 infection imparts. The intensity and timing of pandemic and postpandemic outbreaks will depend on the time of year when widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection becomes established and, to a lesser degree, upon the magnitude of seasonal variation in transmissibility and the level of cross-immunity that exists between the betacoronaviruses. Social distancing strategies could reduce the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 infections strain health care systems. Highly effective distancing could reduce SARS-CoV-2 incidence enough to make a strategy that is based on contact tracing and quarantine feasible, as in South Korea and Singapore. Less effective one-time distancing efforts may result in a prolonged single-peak pandemic, with the extent of strain on the healthcare system and the required duration of distancing depending on the effectiveness. Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available. The authors are aware that prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, is likely to have profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences. Our goal in modeling such policies is not to endorse them, but rather to identify likely trajectories of the pandemic under alternative approaches, to identify complementary interventions such as expanding ICU capacity and identifying treatments to reduce ICU demand, and to spur innovative ideas (55) to expand the list of options to bring the pandemic under long-term control. Our model presents a variety of scenarios intended to anticipate possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics under specific assumptions. We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and/or not sustained for long enough. The model will have to be tailored to local conditions and updated as more accurate data become available. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently required to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and epidemiological surveillance should be maintained in the coming years to anticipate the possibility of resurgence.

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Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period - Science Magazine

A SpaceX Dragon cargo ship was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Monday, bound for the International Space Station. The Dragon was filled with more than 5,800 pounds of research material, cargo, supplies, and equipment for astronauts aboard the ISS.

Along with general supplies like food, the Dragon ship carried an extra special cargo. Sperm and bone marrow were just two of the hundreds of items that arrived at the ISS on Wednesday.

NASA sent the sperm as part of a project called Micro-11, which came out of the Ames Research Center in California. The goal is to gain insight into how flight and space travel can affect human reproduction. The researchers are not sure that the sperm is able to function normally enough in a zero-gravity environment to fertilize an egg in space.

To test this, frozen human and bull sperm samples were sent to the station, and the plan is for the onboard crew to thaw it before adding a chemical that can activate sperm movement, which occurs before the space sperm can fuse with an egg. While in space, the sperm will be monitored via video before the samples are preserved and sent back to Earth, where it will be determined whether or not the egg and sperm successfully fused, according to NASA.

A space debris remover called RemoveDEBRIS was also shipped in the Dragon. While astronauts are aboard the station doing their research, a satellite outside the station will work to develop new methods for catching space debris.

By late May or early June, astronauts are likely to launch the RemoveDEBRIS satellite from the ISS into space, . reported. As soon as the satellite is a safe distance from the ISS in space, it is scheduled to deploy its own small satellites that act as false space junk. The satellite will then use two techniques, net capture and harpoon capture, to trap debris in space and take it out of orbit and burn it in Earths atmosphere.

Sperm samples for the Micro-11 experiment arrived at NASAs Kennedy Space Center in Florida, where researchers prepared them for launch to the International Space Station. Credits: NASA

The names of the techniques are tremendously descriptive of how they work. The net capture uses a giant net to catch the debris and then take it out of orbit. The harpoon will not actually be tested with a satellite; for legal reasons its a little more risky than net catching so rather, the harpoon will be launched at a target that will extend from the RemoveDEBRIS spacecraft.

All of this is programmed to be monitored with cameras and data transmissions. A video shows how the satellite and its capture methods are likely to work as soon as they are in space.

In addition to the satellite and sperm, many other exciting experiments and cargo arrived at the station on Wednesday. The more than 2,000 pounds of scientific research that was sent included a bone marrow experiment, the Atmosphere-Space Interaction Monitor to probe thunderstorms on Earth, and the Veggie PONDS experiment to study plant growth in space, all of them included in the load.

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SpaceX launched sperm, a space junk receiver, and other things at the International Space Station - Explica

Women in paid employment have better outcomes in pregnancy and improved lifestyle behaviours during it compared to homemakers, major new Irish research has found.

Women who were unemployed or homemakers had higher incidences of low birth weight and size, and their babies were more likely to be admitted to the neonatal unit, than women in paid employment, according to the study of over 62,000 Irish women.

In addition, women who were homemakers had an increased incidence of neonatal death, while among unemployed women the rate of stillbirth was higher, compared to women in paid work.

The unemployed and homemaker cohorts were less likely to plan their pregnancy and to take folic acid before conception, and more likely to continue smoking and use illicit drugs during pregnancy, the researchers from UCD and the Coombe Women and Infants University Hospital found.

Even after adjusting for continued adverse lifestyle behaviours during pregnancy, the association with adverse outcomes persisted.

The observational study was based on the outcomes for more than 62,000 women who gave birth at the Coombe between 2010 and 2017. One of the largest maternity hospitals in Europe, the Coombe sees a diverse mix of patients in terms of socio-economic background.

The authors say their study challenges previous results and assumptions that homemakers provide the best scenario for desired foetal development.

In some cases, such as those working in factories, mining and construction this may be true, however we found that when comparing women in paid employment as a whole to homemakers, these women had not only improved pregnancy outcomes but also improved lifestyle and pregnancy-related behaviours.

While the link between unemployment and poorer pregnancy outcomes is well-established, the Irish research sheds new light on outcomes for homemaker women.

It does suggest that, depending on the type, work can be good for you, in terms of pregnancy outcomes, says Prof Michael Turner of UCDs Centre for Human Reproduction. It brings in income to provide for you and your family; you eat better, exercise more and may be able to employ carers for other children.

Society may need to see what it can do to increase maternal employment, Prof Turner says, adding that this question is particularly relevant during the Covid-19 pandemic, as unemployment, including female unemployment, increases again.

However, he acknowledges the homemaker group is a diverse one that includes women who were on social welfare benefits before their pregnancy and women who are well-supported financially and who consciously chose to stop working before having children.

A possible weakness of the study is that information on employment status from women is self-reported, the authors acknowledge.

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Women in jobs have healthier babies than homemakers - study - The Irish Times

Anthropology Professor Doug Bailey destroyed more than 1,200 transparencies from SF State archives, and he is proud of it. He culled 35-millimeter images from decades-old research projects that are now considered unethical studies of ethnicity, sexuality, animal dissection and human reproduction and soaked them in diluted sodium oxychloride.

It is part of Baileys efforts to create a new discipline, art/archaeology. In early March, just as the COVID-19 crisis hit, he made a splash at the International Museum of Contemporary Sculpture in Lisbon, Portugal, with the exhibition Creative (un)makings: disruptions in art/archaeology. An academic conference accompanied the exhibition; a catalogue and book are coming soon.

Installations included Baileys own creative political work, Releasing the Archive, and Ineligible, composed of sculptures made from archaeological remains excavated during the construction of San Franciscos new Transbay Transit Center. Bailey curated the exhibit with University of Lisbon Professor Sara Navarro. Art Assistant Professor Ilana Crispi contributed a piece to Ineligible.

SF States George and Judy Marcus Funds for Excellence in the Liberal Arts and College of Liberal & Creative Arts faculty travel fund helped support the project.

Bailey boasts that his subversive approach is a violation of curators standards of care and the normal rules that museums, universities and cultural institutions must obey when they preserve and protect objects and images.

In Releasing the Archive, Bailey dissolved transparencies held in collections from SF States now-defunct Adan E. Treganza Anthropology Museum. The images on the transparencies consisted of animal dissections, graphic drawings and photographs of human reproduction and female anatomy, fossilized human skulls and casts of skulls, ethnic profiling, animals in captivity in zoos and game reserves, and ethnographic field photos.

Transforming ethically questionable materials into art stimulates debate on issues of museums, archives, material culture and human rights, Bailey said.

Why do we assume that prehistoric, ancient or historic objects artifacts if you wish have an intrinsic value based on their age, and what happens if we undermine that assumption? Bailey said. How do we ethically release objects and images from museums and archives, particularly when those objects and images were unethically obtained (by ethnographers, anthropologists, archaeologists and collectors) and when they have been trapped in institutional and private collections. There is no correct answer to the question of what do we do in these situations.

Responses to the exhibition and Baileys lectures on art/archaeology have been largely supportive, but have also elicited outrage, he said.

At one talk at Berkeley, a member of the audience stood up, shouted at me and stormed out, Bailey said. At another talk in Oslo, a photographer was on the verge of tears.

Bailey tested positive for novel coronavirus after returning from Portugal on March 12. He has continued to teach while in self-quarantine at his home. As he is deeply concerned about his colleagues, he hopes the University will devote more resources for their physical and mental health.

We have done such a high-energy and necessary job supporting our students, delivering curriculum, rejigging our teaching and advising, said Bailey, who joined SF State in 2008. Something is going to break. It may be us.

More positively, I have realized (again) how lucky and grateful I am to work at SF State, to collaborate with my colleagues and to work with our students, Bailey added. We are all lucky. We work our butts off, but we are lucky. So many people are in far worse positions economically. The families who have lost loved ones. Those who have lost jobs. I recognize how lucky I am.

Matt Itelson

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Professor Bailey Destroys Archival Research Images in the Name of Art, Ethics - SF State News

Illustration of a cell being infected by COVID-19 particles (shown in pink). Researchers hope to better understand how coronaviruses enter cells, spread, and cause varying immune responses in different individuals. NIAID/NIH

Viruses like novel coronavirus can be sloppy multipliers, leaving lots of junk particles around infected cells during reproduction. That junk may help humans fight illness.

Most models of diseases like COVID-19 are based on purified virus stock. But in nature, many viruses are not particularly pure. When RNA viruses, which include coronaviruses, replicate, the process produces lots of partial viruses, mutations and other junk. These are also known as defective interfering particles, and can no longer replicate and spread themselves.

On a potentially positive note, these particles can tie up resources, making it more difficult for an active virus to spread from cell to cell in its host.

John Yin, a University of WisconsinMadison chemical engineering professor along with colleagues from chemical and biological engineering and the interdisciplinary Wisconsin Institute for Discovery, where Yin is a faculty member plans to find out if these defective interfering particles, documented previously in mouse coronaviruses, exist in human coronaviruses as well. If thats the case, their next step may be to examine how viruses spread as a mixture of active and defective virus strains and how those particles interact with one another and with their host cells.

John Yin

Yin has secured support from the National Science Foundation through a Rapid Response Research (RAPID) grant and an Early-Concept Grant for Exploratory Research (EAGER). In March, Congress appropriated $75 million to NSF for RAPID and EAGER grants to fund projects that prevent, prepare for and respond to coronavirus, domestically or internationally.

For the RAPID project, the team will take an ecological view of coronaviruses to better understand how they enter cells, spread and cause varying immune responses in different individuals.

By understanding the relationships between virus, defective interfering particles and hosts, it may be possible to manipulate the environment to control or slow the spread of the virus. The idea, Yin says, is to look at the viral ecosystem in ways similar to the microbiome, or the variety of bacteria in the human digestive tract. Researchers are beginning to understand that the diversity and ratio of that bacteria can have big impacts on disease and health.

That same kind of ecological thinking is much more slowly entering virology, says Yin. One aspect of it is an appreciation for the diversity of the products that come out of an infected cell. Its not just a viable virus that wants to spread the infection, but there are also other products like defective particles that might actually limit the infection.

To understand this complex system, the team will use what is known about the viruss growth and spread to build mathematical models incorporating the ways the virus enters cells and expresses genes. The team will conduct experiments on human coronaviruses, but not the novel coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic.

The EAGER grant will support the development of a new kind of testing for antiviral drugs.

In the current gold-standard test, a plaque assay, researchers release a virus onto a dish of cells overlaid with a layer of semi-solid agar to force the virus to spread only to neighboring cells. But Yin, along with former graduate student Ying Zhu, found that by replacing the agar with a thin layer of flowing liquid medium, they could reduce testing time from three to five days to just a day or two while increasing the tests sensitivity.

Yin will collaborate with chemical and biological engineering Professor Michael Graham to determine the best conditions for testing drugs that may be effective against COVID-19, bringing more of the chemical engineers unique perspective of to virology and the fight against COVID-19.

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Research on viral junk, quicker drug testing could help outflank coronaviruses - University of Wisconsin-Madison

Saliva as a non-invasive approach to monitoring immune status has the benefits of increasing participant compliance as well as the speed of sampling anywhere, anytime.

CARLSBAD, Calif. (PRWEB) May 13, 2020

Now in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, verification of the integrity of public surveillance and testing is critical. Saliva and oral fluids are increasingly seen as minimally invasive alternatives to traditional biospecimens (e.g., nasal swabs, blood sampling). Saliva can be easily and safely self-collected while social distancing or stay-at-home restrictions are in place, and thus saliva/oral fluid sampling provides an opportunity for large-scale community surveillance. As any pandemic evolves, community-based seroprevalence studies to determine who has been and who has not been exposed is of the utmost importance. Tests that make these determinations must be scalable at a population level and have the lowest possible rates of false positives and negatives.

Recently, Salimetrics announced two new salivary assay kits to be employed when oral fluid/saliva specimens are used for this purpose - the Salivary Total Human IgG ELISA Kit (Cat. No. 1-4502) and the Salivary Total Human IgM ELISA Kit (Cat. No. 1-4002). Both assays come in a 96-well microtiter plate format, require low sample volumes, are fast, and amenable to high throughput batch processing. These assays assure the quality of oral fluid/saliva samples and therefore improve specificity and sensitivity of corresponding pathogen-specific serological assays. Specifically, these assay tools minimize false negative determinations in pathogen-specific serological assays by excluding samples that have insufficient total antibody. Researchers can safely collect samples using SalivaBios FDA listed oral fluid/saliva collection devices that have been optimized for ease of collection from participants as well as downstream processing of samples in the lab.

The utility of Salimetrics Human Total IgG and Total IgM Assay Kits is realized when investigating the immune status of an individual to a specific pathogen by assessing IgG or investigating recent pathogen exposure in an outbreak situation by assessing IgM. Since IgG/IgM levels vary between individuals and individual samples, and the primary source of these antibodies is serum, researchers must qualify an oral fluid sample for total IgG/IgM to determine if enough IgG/IgM is present to further qualify a positive or negative disease target, says Steve Granger, Ph.D., Salimetrics CSO. These assays can be utilized as companion tests with disease-specific target assays (such as COVID-19) on the same sample. By determining the disease-specific antibodies present in relation to the total IgG/IgM, researchers can form reliable thresholds to indicate positive or negative results.

In saliva, IgG/IgM passively diffuses through the gingival crevicular epithelium, where samples can be conveniently collected. Since IgG/IgM in saliva is bioidentical to its serum counterparts, researchers will find it a valuable alternative to blood sampling. Saliva as a non-invasive approach to monitoring immune status has the benefits of increasing participant compliance as well as the speed of sampling anywhere, anytime, says Granger. This can be advantageous during an epidemic, natural disaster, or for general epidemiological research.

Salimetrics continues to be a key partner in bringing best-in-class solutions to salivary bioscience research. By using Salimetrics, researchers can find and implement solutions where the full potential of salivary measures have yet to be realized. To learn more about the new Salivary Total Human IgG and IgM Assay Kits, as well as the available FDA listed oral fluid/saliva collection devices, researchers can visit the Salimetrics Website, or contact researcher support to integrate total salivary IgG/IgM into their current or future research study.

About SalimetricsSalimetrics assay kits and CLIA-certified testing services are used to measure salivary analytes related to stress, behavior and development, inflammation, sleep, reproduction, health and immune function. Founded in 1998 by Douglas A. Granger, Ph.D., Salimetrics, LLC support CROs, pharmaceuticals, academic researchers and the immunodiagnostic industry around the world with innovative immunoassay products, non-invasive saliva collection methods, and laboratory testing services.

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This is what couples should know about trying to get pregnant a second time after already going through the IVF process.

Many families are turning to fertility treatments and IVF as a solution when having trouble conceiving naturally. But some wonder what the chances are of being able to have a second child through IVF if the first baby was also conceived this way?

There are many parents who will happily receive their "miracle baby" through the efforts of science and medicine and will no doubt want to add on to their family within time and thanks to a study that was recently published in "Human Reproduction", one of the world's leading medical journals that focuses on reproduction, women have a significantly good chance to conceive a second baby via IVF when the first baby was born with the help of the same fertility treatment.

RELATED: Mom With COVID-19 Delivers Baby While In Medically-Induced Coma

After looking at data from 35,290 women who received ART (assisted reproductive technology) between 2009 and 2013 in Australia and New Zealand, Professor Georgina Chambers, director of the National Perinatal Epidemiology and Statistics Unit at the University of New South Wales said that two measures were calculated overall in the study: a woman's chance of achieving a second live birth and the overall chance of a woman achieving a live birth after a certain number of cycles. The women were followed until 2015 and live births up to October 2016 were also included in the study.

Just one cycle might not seem like much but there is so much that goes into it. Every cycle includes the stimulation of the ovaries to mature multiple eggs, the collection of the eggs for fertilization. The eggs will then be fertilized in the lab in order to create embryos and then the embryo transfer process can start. There are two different types: fresh embryo transfers and frozen embryo transfers.

15,325 of the 35,290 women in the study (about 43%) returned for treatment to conceive a second child by December of 2015. The median age of women was 36 years old. Researchers who headed up the study found that after three cycles of fertility treatment, in the women aged 40 to 44, the CLBR (cumulative live birth rate) were 38% and 55% with those who began with a frozen embryo and 20% and 25% to those who then started with fresh embryos.

"Couples can be reassured by these figures," Professor Chambers said. "Our findings also underline the fact that ART treatment should be considered as a course of treatment, rather than just one single cycle of treatment: if couples don't achieve a pregnancy in the first cycle, it could very well happen in the next. However, it would be best not to wait too long, especially if a new stimulation cycle is needed."

Source: Medical Xpress

READ NEXT: New Mom Celebrates Birth Of Baby Boy After 7-Year Battle With Infertility

Pregnant Woman Says Her Husband's Family Thinks Her Baby's Name Is 'Child Abuse'

Krissie Mick loves little else in life than writing. She has had experience as a blog editor and contributor, started and taught a creative writing group for children at her local library and has had over 60 short romances published in women's fiction magazines, all with names laboriously chosen from her treasured baby name book that sits by her computer. She thanks you for stopping by!

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The Chances Of Having A Second IVF Baby After Receiving Fertility Treatment For The First - BabyGaga

Opioids are prescription painkillers used to treat moderate-to-severe pain. Not all opioids are the same, differing in what they do to your body, and how they move throughout your body.

Opioids in New Zealand are divided into two different groups - weak and strong. Weak opioids are prescribed when other painkillers have not worked for the patient - they include tramadol, dihydrocodeine and codeine.

Strong opioids may be trialled when weak opioids have not had any beneficial effect. Strong opioids include morphine, oxycodone, methadone, fentanyl and pethidine.

How it works

Although different opioids can have different effects, they all control pain relief by binding to your body's opioid receptors. Opioids activate the receptors located in the brain, spinal cord, and other organs that are associated with feeling pain or pleasure. After taking opioids for an extended period of time, the brain adapts to the drug. This diminishes the brain's sensitivity, making it harder for a patient to feel any pain relief or pleasure from anything except the drug.

Long-term/short-term side effects

Many opioid users report unpleasant side effects, such as constipation, nausea, sleepiness and dizziness. Long-term use of opioids can have serious consequences, such as hypogonadism, adrenal insufficiency and abnormal pain sensitivity. A major concern about opioids is around dependence. A patient can suffer from substance use disorder even if using opioids as they were prescribed. Dependence can appear within just one month of use. In high enough doses, opioids can lead to respiratory failure, coma and death. Prescription fentanyl can reportedly be up to 50 times more potent than the illegal drug heroin. A teaspoon of powdered fentanyl can kill up to 1000 people.

Newshub has cross-checked the medical analysis in this article with Dr Samantha Murton, President of The Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners.

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Explained: What painkillers do to the human body - Newshub

Before they moved to Los Angeles, the Brooklyn Dodgers were baseballs version of the poetic line: hope springs eternal in the human breast. Dem Bums, as they were affectionately referred to by their loyal fans, played the rival New York Yankees five times in the World Series between 1941 and 1953. They lost each time. They finally beat the Yankees in 1955 and then played them the following year, promptly resuming their losing ways.

With each disappointing end to the season, their fans would utter the plaintive plea, wait till next year.

This spring is our Brooklyn Dodgers moment. We will have to wait until next year to experience spring fever. We have lost too many lives to generate the pent-up excitement which normally accompanies the greening grass, blooming flowers, and warming temperatures. Cabin fever has replaced it.

Social distancing and sheltering in place are playing havoc with the rituals of the season. Some of the casualties are gathering around the table with family and friends for Easter brunches and Passover seders; proms and graduations; Cinco de Mayo celebrations; Mothers Day parties; June weddings with more than the bride and groom in attendance.

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Flowers are not all that come alive in spring. Hormones ignite and the chemistry fueling human reproduction gets a rocket boost. But romance is severely impaired when two people wearing masks and standing 6 feet apart lock eyes for the first time across a crowded room. Passion is best expressed when touching is permitted. Under the current distancing guidelines, one night stands are really challenging.

The Colombian writer Gabriel Garcia Marquez believed that disease neednt stand in the way of romance when he wrote Love in a Time of Cholera. Following his lead, Im sure Netflix will soon be streaming Sex, Lies and Coronavirus Videotapes.

Married couples and partners cohabitating dont have to follow social distancing practices unless one partner shows symptoms. Being in confined quarters for weeks and months will certainly test the strength and resiliency of relationships. Growing closer together or moving further apart are at the polar end of possibilities.

It will be interesting to track once this pandemic is tamed whether there has been an increase in the number of births and divorces. Corona babies and corona splits could prove to be a lasting reminder of what happens when an entire country is on lockdown.

Im surprised at how little I miss televised sports. When the NBA suspended play on March 11, it took a few days to adjust. Id reflexively reach for the remote to watch a game before realizing there werent any games to televise. After a week, I stopped reaching. Out of sight. Out of mind.

But there are four sporting events which take place at the same time each year in April and May that I will regret not seeing. They always served as reliable harbingers of spring a first respite from wintry melancholy. The Masters golf tournament is held the first full week in April and the Boston Marathon on Patriots Day, the third Monday of the month. The running of the Kentucky Derby is the first Saturday in May; the Indianapolis 500 on Memorial Day weekend. They are four of the best-known traditions in American sport, sequentially tracing the evolution of human movement from walking to running to riding to driving.

Like you, I feel this shelter in place way of life gets old fast. But for as long as the siege lasts, I am prepared to make the best of my quarantined existence.

This is the only time in my life where what I do for my own well-being serves the public welfare. Its a big responsibility, a heavy moral burden. But one I accept gladly and proudly.

After all, there are worse things than the monotony of cabin fever. Hospitalization immediately comes to mind.

Jay Wissot is a resident of Denver and Vail. Email him at jayhwissot@mac.com.

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Wissot: Cabin fever has replaced spring fever - Vail Daily News

If youve watched any of Mrs. America, the star-studded miniseries about the battle of the Equal Rights Amendment, you may be wondering how accurately it captures this divisive chapter in American political history.

The nine-part drama pits conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly (Cate Blanchett) and her followers against a band of feminist all-stars led by Gloria Steinem (Rose Byrne), Bella Abzug (Margo Martindale) and Betty Friedan (Tracey Ullman), who are prone to spirited internal debates. Creator Dahvi Waller and her team of writers conducted extensive research into Second Wave feminism and the rise of the new right in the 1970s.

Like nearly all works of historical fiction, Mrs. America takes some liberties, particularly when it comes to private conversations behind closed doors, and it offers a necessarily subjective take on highly polarizing figures such as Schlafly. But when it comes to events in the public record, Mrs. America hews close to the facts, often quoting feminist leaders and their critics verbatim.

Overall, they have done a very good job, said historian Marjorie Spruill, author of Divided We Stand: The Battle Over Womens Rights and Family Values That Polarized America.

Episode three explores the thorny intersection of race and gender on both sides of the ERA debate. Rep. Shirley Chisholm (Uzo Aduba), the first black woman elected to Congress, makes a historic run for the presidency in 1972 but faces skepticism from both the womens movement and other black politicians. Meanwhile, Democrats fight over abortion and ERA opponents grapple with racism in their ranks.

Heres a look at fact versus fiction in episode three, Shirley:

Uzo Aduba as Shirley Chisholm in Mrs. America.

(Sabrina Lantos / FX)

Shirley Chisholm was stung by the lack of support she received from the womens movement and black politiciansAs the convention approaches, Chisholm, one of the founders of the National Womens Political Caucus, faces pressure to drop out from her supposed allies including Rep. Ron Dellums (Norm Lewis), cofounder of the Congressional Black Caucus, who tells Chisholm they question whether she is the candidate for blacks, or just for women. She also struggles with wavering support from her peers in the NWPC, Abzug and Steinem.

As a trailblazing black woman in politics, Chisholm was used to having her loyalty questioned. When she declared her candidacy at an event in Brooklyn in January 1972, she said, I am not the candidate of black America, although I am black and proud. I am not the candidate of the womens movement in this country, although I am a woman and I am equally proud of that. During a campaign stop in Los Angeles, Chisholm confronted doubts about her candidacy in the black community Not many black people can really believe that a black person, who also happens to be a woman, can become president of this country and also fielded questions about why she chose not to wear her hair in a natural look.

Indeed, as Barbara Winslow writes in her book Shirley Chisholm: Catalyst for Change, Chisholm was viewed with skepticism and in some cases anger by the leading black male politicians of the time because they believed she would be viewed as the womens candidate. And she was heartbroken when Dellums, her longtime supporter, bailed on her at the last minute to endorse McGovern as depicted in Mrs. America.

Likewise, Chisholm received only lukewarm support from leading feminists, according to Winslow. Abzug never formally endorsed her, while Steinems support was qualified by the fact that she named McGovern the best of the male candidates. Chisholm actually confronted Steinem on a Chicago TV show about her semi-endorsement. Years later, Steinem expressed regret over the issue.

Another Mrs. America detail that stands up to scrutiny? According to Winslows book, Chisholm received multiple death threats and was given Secret Service protection. The FBI also investigated a racist smear campaign against her involving forged press releases written on stolen Hubert Humphrey campaign stationery.

Rose Byrne plays Gloria Steinem in Mrs. America.

(Sabrina Lantos / FX)

There was a fight over abortion at the 1972 Democratic Convention. And, yes, Shirley MacLaine helped keep the issue out of the party platformAt the 1972 Democratic Convention in Miami, the NWPC emerged as a political force. Women made up 38% of the delegates, up from 13% in 1968, and some wanted to leverage their newfound clout to get the party to support reproductive choice at a time when abortion was still illegal in much of the country. (The Supreme Court would hand down its decision in Roe v. Wade about six months later.)

In Shirley, we see Steinem and Abzug meeting with George McGoverns campaign director Gary Hart (John Palladino) and McGovern delegate Shirley MacLaine (Vanessa Smythe). Using an arcane mechanism of the convention rules, Steinem pledges 100 female delegates from California to McGovern in exchange for a floor vote on a reproductive rights plank. But when it looks like the measure might pass, Hart panics and pulls a delegate switcheroo, resulting in a bitter loss for abortion-rights proponents particularly Steinem.

Which is basically what happened. In her colorful dispatch from the convention for Esquire Magazine, Nora Ephron wrote, The fight over the abortion plank which was referred to as the human-reproduction plank because it never once mentioned the word abortion produced the most emotional floor fight of the convention. She describes a tearful Steinem calling Hart a liar and a bastard, and Abzug screaming at Shirley MacLaine. For her part, the actress defended her role in the incident in a piece for the New York Times, explaining her pragmatic opposition to the plank despite her personal support for abortion rights. It seemed to me a strong abortion plank would hurt not only George McGovern but the issue itself, she wrote at the time.

The shows portrayal of Steinem as idealistic and Abzug more grounded is fair, Spruill said. Steinem hates political compromises. And Abzug is also concerned about economic and racial justice as well as gender. But she also is a politician who deals in the world of whats possible and understands that better. She was concerned that they get McGovern elected first.Phyllis Schlafly probably did turn a blind eye to racists in her movementIn the same episode, Schlafly acolyte Alice (Sarah Paulson) confronts Mary Frances (Melinda Page Hamilton), a Stop ERA member from Louisiana, about her racist language. Schlafly intervenes in the dispute and taps Mary Frances to lead her state organization but reminds members to stick to approved talking points. It serves our cause better to all use identical language, she says. In other words: Its fine if youre racist, just dont advertise it because it makes us look bad.

While the specific scenario appears to have been manufactured by the writers of Mrs. America, the dynamic it portrays is accurate, according to Spruill, who interviewed Schlafly on multiple occasions.

She told me, I am an equal-opportunity opponent of the ERA, and any group that is opposed to it, whatever their reasons, are welcome to work with us, Spruill said. In her research, Spruill also found that a significant number of prominent Stop ERA members were affiliated with far-right organizations such as the John Birch Society and segregationist groups including Women for Constitutional Government, which was founded in opposition to the integration of Ole Miss.

Read more from the original source:
Shirley Chisholm: What 'Mrs. America' gets right and wrong - Los Angeles Times

The Sims Clinic, which operates a facility at City Gate in Mahon, says it is hoping to resume some of its fertility treatments next month, but it awaits government guidance on the situation.

The clinic, like others across Europe, had deferred fertility treatments following recent recommendations from the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) that assisted reproduction treatments such as IVF should temporarily not be carried out in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ESHRE has now reviewed these recommendations and says that once the risk of COVID-19 infection is decreasing, treatments can be resumed in line with local regulations.

It has urged however that "vigilance and measured steps must be taken for safe practice and to minimise the risks related to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19-positive patients or staff during treatment."

The Sims Clinic said it would look to resume some of its treatments in May, adding "however, we still await government guidance on the situation."

It said the resumption of services would be on a phased basis.

The safety of patients and staff is of paramount importance to us and we are making all preparations necessary. We have sourced PPE equipment and are ensuring our clinics are prepared for social distancing, the Sims Clinic said.

The clinic said that this would take some time and that staff will start to contact patients regarding their treatment next week.

Originally posted here:
Cork clinic hoping to resume some fertility treatments in May - Echo Live

This process, by which certain pieces of information are selectively transmitted between different parts of the brain, often involves synchronization between the brain rhythms in these regions. The prefrontal cortex plays an essential role in this process, and can determine which information to pay attention to and which to ignore. It makes decisions based on signals from other parts of the brain, like the hippocampus, where anxiety neurons reside.

Sohals lab measured the synchronization between brain rhythms in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex during times when mice had to make decisions. Brain regions must collaborate to make these decisions explore that open field? Stay hidden?

Without synchronization, the brain would have a harder time deciding whats important, what to focus on. Sohals lab sees these kinds of problems with appropriately filtering information as important parts of schizophrenia, autism, and anxiety disorders.

But, Sohal reiterates that anxiety is essential. We have to have anxiety. Otherwise we would do things that are overly dangerous. Anxiety is a basic part of our existence, he says. But pathological situations arise when for whatever reason the brain doesnt seem to be able to tune anxiety properly, and so its avoid, avoid, avoid.

Aoife ODonovan said that in most cases the human brain is quite good at managing anxiety.

We can think in the abstract about multiple scenarios and outcomes and prepare ourselves for them before they even happen, she says. The problem is that imagining and predicting and preparing for bad outcomes can take a toll on us psychologically and biologically.

The problem is that imagining and predicting and preparing for bad outcomes can take a toll on us psychologically and biologically.

AOIFE ODONOVAN,PHD, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF PSYCHIATRY

ODonovans lab works with people with PTSD, who show exaggerated reactions to perceived threats. In these cases, our cognitive strength can be turned against us. Our bodies react to hypothetical threats as if they are right in front of us cue stress hormones and sweaty palms.

And that may be more commonplace now.

Because so many people worldwide are living in a state of anxiety at least partly due to the effects of the pandemic, social unrest, and climate change we might see more people showing these kinds of biased responses to new or preexisting potential threats, she says.

When a state of uncertainty drags on for months, our protective cognitive mechanisms can do more harm than good.

In the short-term, these responses prepare us for positive action and protect us against the potential for injury and infection that came with stressors in our evolutionary past. In the long-term, prolonged activation of the biological stress response can have toxic effects on the brain and the rest of the body, increasing risk for both psychiatric disorders and chronic physical diseases.

Theres no telling the future and, so far, no way to turn off our anxiety neurons, so how can we better cope with uncertainty? ODonovan suggests limiting exposure to the news and instead prioritizing behaviors that allow our anxious bodies to return to baseline. That means meditating, exercising, sleeping well, and nurturing social connections.

At the community level, this long-term uncertainty strains the relationships we need to maintain.

Social connection is key to making people feel safe, but our social relationships are also under strain due to social distancing and other factors. As much as possible, we need to use technology to maintain our social ties and take care of one another during these times, she said.

We may not be able to shed our current, collective uncertainty, but we can share the burden. Community, ODonovan says, has never been more important.

Go here to read the rest:
The Science of What Uncertainty Can Mean for Your Mind, Body - ScienceBlog.com

In the years since Barry Stevens was conceived, much has changed in the world of sperm donation. Back then, in the 1950s, it was a murky affair. As we discover in The World's Biggest Family, a documentary from CBC Docs POV, a woman would show up at her doctor's office and a fresh semen sample would appear from a back room, provided by a man she knew nothing about. Typically, she was told to go home, have sex with her husband and pretend the child was his. Couples were instructed to keep the matter secret. Stevens's parents followed that same advice his mother didn't tell him he was donor-conceived until after his father's death.

In contrast, sperm donation these days happens on an industrial scale. Men are enlisted for a couple of deposits a week, on contract. Their samples are split into multiple portions and sold for about $1,000 each. The men are numbered and catalogued. They provide baby photographs of themselves, voice recordings and catchy philosophical meditations.

But one thing hasn't changed: in many of the world's jurisdictions, sperm donors continue to be anonymous.

That is the case in Canada. Men who donate sperm have the right not to be identified to the parents who used the sample or even to the individuals created with it. Unlike adoptees in most provinces, people conceived through donated sperm have no right to ever know their origins. In fact, their parents are often made to sign contracts promising they'll never even try.

Anonymity in Canada's Assisted Human Reproduction Act

2004Originally, there was a clause in the law stating that "...the identity of the donor or information that can reasonably be expected to be used in the identification of the donor shall not be disclosed without the donor's written consent." Donors had the right to anonymity and donor offspring had no right to information about their donor's identity.

Interestingly, in the original law, two people who were in a sexual relationship, but worried they might be related through a donor, were allowed to write to Health Canada and be informed of their relationship. (This was in the days before widespread genetic testing.) In reality, this was not possible, because Health Canada never collected the information needed to provide this.

2012Both clauses (among many others) were repealed in 2012. Canada's law is now silent on the issue of anonymity, although it continues to tacitly protect it.

"We can't change what happened in the past," says Barbara, one of about 45 half-siblings Stevens has discovered so far. "But now, there is no excuse whatsoever for donors to insist on secrecy."

David, a half-brother, agrees. "Everyone has the right not to be deliberately deceived or deliberately deprived of information about essential aspects of their personal history," he says.

In the early 2000s, Canada was on track to be a trailblazer against anonymity. In a review of an early draft of our law, the Standing Committee on Health recommended an open donation system, citing the right of a child to know its origin. "We feel that, where there is a conflict between the privacy rights of a donor and the rights of a resulting child to know its heritage, the rights of the child should prevail," they wrote. "We want to end the current system of anonymous donation."

But lawmaking is a fickle business. By the time it came to a vote, a new clause protecting anonymity had been inserted, and the onus was on those opposed to get an amendment. The amendment was defeated by one vote. So when the Assisted Human Reproduction Act finally came into force in March 2004, anonymity was enshrined as a right of the donor.

The Act had also initially called for a central health registry. But it was never set up, and eight years after being mandated, the idea was repealed.

In the same period, the U.K. went in a much different direction. It ruled that, thereafter, every person conceived using donated gametes in that country would have the right to find out the identity of their donor. At 16, offspring can learn the country and year of their donor's birth; information about physical features, like eye, hair and skin colour; and personal family and medical history. At 18, they can learn the donor's full name, date and place of birth, and most recent address. No more than 10 families can use the sperm from one donor and it's all tracked.

The U.K. is not alone in opposing anonymity: Germany, Sweden, Norway, Australia and New Zealand, among others, ban it as well. But the world seems divided on the question. Canada, along with the U.S., Russia, Denmark and many others, still allow anonymity to prevail. Some jurisdictions including China, Spain and Israel actually require it.

These days, of course, anonymity is merely theoretical. Cheap, widely-available home genetic testing has made it virtually impossible to stay hidden forever. Yet sperm banks still promise anonymity to donors and peddle it to would-be parents.

Genetic testing has made it possible for families like Stevens's to find each other. But it has also uncovered some uncomfortable truths about the fertility industry.

For starters: the size of sibling groups. Many donors were told they would sire no more than 10 children through the process. But sibling groups of 50 or even 200 have turned up. Stevens reckons his donor family could number 600.

Then there is the fact that information about the donor depends largely on a questionnaire and the honour system. A couple in Port Hope, Ont., thought they'd selected a healthy donor working on his PhD, but when the sperm bank accidentally disclosed his full name, they discovered he had no degrees at all, had been diagnosed with schizophrenia and had a criminal record.

Other cases over the years have underscored that medical screening may be inadequate. One donor passed on a deadly heart condition to nine of the 24 children conceived with his sperm; another seems to have given rise to autism in at least a dozen of his offspring. And because of anonymity, it's difficult to get the word out to all the children, should that need arise as a donor with a heritable but treatable cancer discovered.

But for many donor offspring, even when the news is upsetting, knowing is better than not knowing. This is true even for people and there are now quite a few who discover their biological father was actually their mother's fertility doctor.

Stevens and others believe it's time to end donor anonymity. In The World's Biggest Family, he asks his brother David why the genetic connection matters so much, even though they both loved the dads who raised them. "I haven't the faintest idea," replies David. "But it does."

Watch The World's Biggest Family on CBC Docs POV.

Alison Motluk is a Toronto writer who publishes HeyReprotech, a weekly newsletter on assisted reproduction.

Original post:
When it comes to sperm donor anonymity, Canada is behind the curve - CBC.ca

The sightings have been noted since early in the pandemic critters everywhere, including here in Connecticut. Its not quite deer roaming through Japanese subway stations or monkeys hanging out in Thai cities, but theres enough bear, deer, chipmunks, rabbits, raccoons and more to make life a little, well, wilder than usual.

But a good bit of whats going on in nature this summer is nothing close to cute. Climate change which was responsible for this past winters warmth, the recent heat wave, repetitive windstorms and other weather events, including the many early-season hurricanes this year like Isaias has brought a host of flying, crawling, hopping, buzzing, burrowing and otherwise mobile creatures, many of which can cause serious and even deadly diseases.

Layer COVID-19 on top and the folks who sound the alarms on these things are sounding them louder than usual.

It certainly at least anecdotally seems like were seeing more of these species come in, said Jason White, who took over as director of the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station on April 1 as COVID was exploding here. Obviously the thing were eyeing right now is all the tick-borne diseases and mosquito viruses.

The Experiment Station, a state agency with a wide portfolio of research and monitoring, is best known for tracking Lyme disease, West Nile virus and Eastern Equine Encephalitis EEE, referred to as triple-E. These are normally the summers most worrisome health issues.

Yehyun Kim :: ctmirror.org

Scott Williams, agricultural scientist at the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, sedates a mouse to check for ticks on Friday, Aug. 7 in North Branford. Some of these people who are recreating outdoors now who wouldnt otherwise without the pandemic, Williams. You just need to be aware and check yourself and take precautions and check your kids because it would be terrible to be social distancing and then succumb to some other diseases.

White and other researchers are worried about the coronavirus impact on other diseases, however.

People are getting kind of disease weary, White said. This is all theyve been hearing about for months and months and months. You get somebody who has flu-like symptoms and what are you going to do this year? Youre going to get a COVID test. Well, your COVID test comes back negative so you dont think about it anymore. What if its Lyme? What if its one of those mosquito-borne illnesses? If it were any summer other than this one, those are the things youd be thinking about.

But there is way more than usual to think about out in nature this summer for both people and plants. Mosquitoes are at the top of the list.

Nine months ago, municipalities in Connecticut were frantically cancelling evening activities obviously not for COVID but for EEE. It has a human mortality rate of about 35%, and the fact that there were four human cases in the state all but one fatal - made it an off-the-charts year.

The first mosquitoes to test positive for EEE this season were found in Stonington on Aug. 5. Thats early. If they show up at all its usually not until late August. I dont think it will be as big as last year, said Phil Armstrong, director of the mosquito surveillance program at the Experiment Station. Last year was a record. He said EEE usually lingers for a couple of years after a big outbreak like last years. A second positive mosquito was identified this week in Hampton.

Yehyun Kim :: ctmirror.org

Jamie Cantoni points to nymph, an immature form of the tick, on Aug. 7 in North Branford. There hasnt been a consistent increase of ticks, but ticks that used to live in the south have been found in the north, including Connecticut, said Scott Williams, agricultural scientist at the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station.

Its been in Massachusetts since early July and mosquito spraying is planned for more than two-dozen communities. Last year that state had 12 human cases, six of them fatal.

On the other hand, the recent stretch of hot, dry weather does not allow mosquitoes to thrive.

Wet conditions are the best setup for mosquitoes, Armstrong said. But he cautioned: We have 50 different mosquito species and they all have different relationships to water.

Increased rainfall and temperatures will accelerate mosquito development and theyll bite more when its humid.

Mosquitoes that carry EEE tend to turn up in freshwater swamps and areas with a high water table like those found in eastern Connecticut, which is where EEE tends to surface. Long periods of sustained rainfall like those in early spring not periodic extreme rains like the state has had lately are what help them proliferate.

But theres another big factor the birds that carry EEE in their blood. Thats what the mosquitoes feed on before they bite humans or horses, another mammal in which EEE can be fatal.

EEE can kill birds, but theres some evidence theyre developing immunity. And if theyre able to stay alive, the disease can be transmitted more easily to mosquitoes. Not only that, one of the most prolific carriers is that most common of birds the robin.

Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station

EEE cases in Connecticut last year a record year with four human cases, three of which were fatal.

The other major disease concern from mosquitoes remains West Nile Virus. But its generally from a different mosquito Culex pipiens. It prefers torrential downpours and dirty standing water. It primarily develops in catch basins and storm drains, so heavy rain will flush them out.

But spring/early summer rain followed by drought like Connecticut had this year is a set-up for West Nile, and indeed the first mosquitoes that tested positive for West Nile were found on July 8 in Newington and have been increasing in number since. A human case was identified this week.

To keep track of all these tiny vectors, the state has added 16 new mosquito trapping stations all in eastern Connecticut bringing the total number of testing sites to 108. Each site has at least two traps that are cleared every 10 days. If West Nile or EEE is found, clearing changes to twice a week.

At some sites theres a third trap to catch Asian Tiger mosquitoes, a species that has been creeping northward and, as climate change has made winters warmer, has overwintered in southern Connecticut. It can transmit the dangerous Zika and Chikungunya viruses.

Armstrong said the data the lab has collected provide a picture of how mosquitoes here are changing over time. Climate change seems to be playing a role. Weve seen a lot of other species that are new arrivals into the state that likely resulted from northward range expansion from the south, he said. He said thats different from some of the climate change-induced insect trends that are reducing diversity. If you just look at overall mosquito abundance and mosquito diversity in the state its going up.

I always get asked is it a bad tick year, said Kirby Stafford. He is the state entomologist and as chief entomologist at Experiment Station runs the Center for Vector Biology and Zoonotic Diseases. Every year is a bad tick year. Some are just more so than others.

Yehyun Kim :: ctmirror.org

Jamie Cantoni, agriculture research assistant at the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, walks around the woods in North Branford to collect ticks.

This years degree of bad is yet to be determined. But at one of the states two tick testing labs the one known as a passive lab because the public brings ticks in to be examined ticks were coming in all winter at a heavy clip, according to its director Goudarz Molaei.

From November to mid-March, Molaei said, they used to receive 50-100 ticks. But thats ballooned up to hundreds some 800 in 2017.

Last year the station started active tick testing,collecting them from 40 sites across eight counties. But a ticks two-year life cycle makes prediction complicated. Ticks in any given year reflect how many were born the previous year. And the ticks born in any given year will inform what happens the following year.

Among the other pieces of the tick puzzle is the number of hosts the ticks need some for reproduction, some for transmitting the disease. And in the case of the rodents and large mammals that handle those duties, there are a lot more at the moment.

Yehyun Kim :: ctmirror.org

John Shepard, mosquito biologist at the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, identifies mosquitos. Climate change that includes longer summers, mild winters and extreme weathers, is one of the factors that led to the increase of new species of mosquitos from the south, said Philip Armstrong, director of mosquito surveillance program at the Experiment Station.

The changing climate is also starting to alter the profile of ticks appearing in the state, with southern species working their ways north as the climate warms. The Lone Star tick is exhibit A, Stafford said. It is an aggressive biter that can spread several dangerous diseases including ehrlichiosis, a bacterial infection that can produce flu-like symptoms; or cause Alpha-gal syndrome a recently identified allergy to red meat.

The Lone Star tick is probably responsible for about 90% of tick bites in the southeastern United States but its been moving northward with our warmer winters, Stafford said. It began showing up on Long Island in the early 1990s and is now abundant there.

In the past decade, Lone Star tick submissions to the passive tick lab have increased from about 2-3% to more than 4% this year. In 2017 Stafford discovered a large population of Lone Stars on a peninsula in South Norwalk.

Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station

Asian Longhorned Ticks are in nearby states, but not Connecticut yet a prospect that has officials worried.

More ominously, Stafford and a colleague conducted overwintering survival studies with adult stage Lone Star ticks in Maine. While the survival rate was low, some nevertheless weathered the winter.

Stafford also has his eye on the Asian Longhorned tick, which infests deer and livestock and can transmit some nasty diseases including a hemorrhagic one. Its not in Connecticut but has infested sheep in Hunterdon County, NJ since 2017 and is in Westchester County, N.Y. and on Staten Island. It is parthenogenic which means females dont need males to reproduce.

Overall his tick concerns are similar to Jason Whites that folks fixated on COVID may ignore symptoms of Lyme disease, which Stafford said tends to be under-reported anyway. And with people using parks and outdoor areas more as a respite from being stuck home due to the pandemic, he worries more people will suffer tick bites.

Mosquitoes and ticks may be the most worrisome of summer visitors, but they are not the only changes in the critter world that Connecticut is experiencing.

There is one bit of good news. Gypsy moths shouldnt be too bad this year. (Of course there wasnt much left for them to eat.)

Spring rains like the ones we had this year and last are good for proliferating a soil fungus that can keep the oak-munching critters in check. But the three years before that were absolute devastation.

Weve had drought before and weve had gypsy moths, but the two came together in three consecutive years and the trees just couldnt take it, said Chris Martin, director of the Division of Forestry at the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection and the state forester.

Yehyun Kim :: ctmirror.org

Alyssa Marini, seasonal resource assistant at the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, identifies mosquitos. Mosquitos are more active late summer to early fall, especially in August and September, said Philip Armstrong, director of mosquito surveillance program at the Experiment Station. Armstrong recommended wearing long sleeve shirts and avoiding outdoor activities between dusk and dawn to avoid mosquito-borne diseases.

Well over hundreds of thousands of trees covering 90,000 acres have been defoliated, rendering many of them hazards to safety, not to mention utility lines in storms such as the recent tropical storm Isaias.

There wont be aerial surveillance of trees this year. The Cessna aircraft used to do conduct it are too small to allow social distancing, but last years was brutal enough for both years. And there are plenty more insects causing trouble.

Emerald Ash Borer arrived less than a decade ago. Efforts to keep it from spreading largely failed and it has marched west to east to cover the entire state. It takes three to five years to kill a tree once its established.

Were going to lose most all of our ash on account of this, Martin said. The insidiousness of this insect is that its small, it spreads itself quickly, its hard to detect and by the time you notice it, its too late.

While the ash borer was introduced through global trade, the arrival of Southern Pine Beetle is clearly climate change-driven. Its been throughout the south for decades hitting the New Jersey pine barrens as far back as the 1980s and turning up in Connecticut in 2016.

Another newcomer is Beech Leaf Disease caused by a nematode. It was found in one tree in Stamford last year, but when scientists began monitoring, they discovered that wasnt the only one by a long shot.It had come from Westchester and Dutchess Counties in New York and headed all the way through Rhode Island and into Massachusetts, said Bob Marra, a forest pathologist at the Experiment Station.

Robert Marra, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station

The dark leaves show infestation by the nematode that causes Beech Leaf Disease.

The nematodes inside the leaves make the foliage look dark. And thats where they breed. Tons and tons of eggs. Anything were seeing now this year, had to have come from over-wintered buds that were already infected, Marra said. The leaves emerge fully symptomatic.

Marra is also facing the potential of Oak Wilt arriving in Connecticut from where its currently holed up in Brooklyn, N.Y. Its a fungus but the vector is a native bark beetle. Oak Wilt operates similarly to Dutch Elm disease in that it blocks the trees vascular system, killing it within a season even a large mature oak.

Marra hasnt found Oak Wilt in the state, but hes not saying its not here. Probably is, he said. We just have not seen it yet.

But if youre looking for good critter news try the Asian Long Horned Beetle, a pest that is happy to munch on any number of hardwood trees. Connecticut has managed for the better part of a decade to keep it from making the move from the Worcester, Mass. area across the border to this state.

I think the lesson learned is we just dont know whats next, DEEPs Martin said.

Big animals, little animals

Gale Ridge, an associate scientist at the Experiment Station, isnt entirely sure which category the Cicada Killer wasp is in big or little. As wasps go, its big. More to the point,it is much the same size and look as the so-called murder hornet thats become a media sensation. It is causing Ridge to take call after call after call after call.

Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station

The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station has received many calls from people who think theyve seen the Giant or Murder Hornet.

Thats probably one right now, she said as one of her phones started ringing, as if on cue.

The murder hornet, officially the Asian giant hornet, was found in Washington state. Thats 3,000 miles away, she exclaims. And so shes providing a handy how-to-tell-them-apart from the cicada killer diagram, since the cicada killer (which might have its name changed to the somewhat more benign cicada hunter) is around here.

Other than killing cicadas and dragging them off to a hole in the ground to feed her young, these wasps are harmless. In her 20 years at the Experiment Station, Ive never known anyone to get stung by them. Males dont even have stingers, Ridge said.

Of course you dont have to be big to do damage, which home gardeners and even seasoned farmers are learning this year more than usual, the experts say.

Asiatic garden beetles are out there in huge numbers hiding in the dirt during the day and feeding at night on just about anything. (So if youre wondering what has chewed up every leaf in your vegetable bed this is a pretty good bet, Ridge said.)

Shuresh Ghimire, vegetable specialist with UConn Extension service, said squirrels, chipmunks and deer are what hes hearing about. Im getting queries from growers and gardeners who have been farming for many years and have never encountered such a big problem with squirrels, he said.

Hes also getting many more weekly calls about European corn borer problems than he has in previous years.

The fruit fly known as spotted wing drosophila continues its march begun about a decade ago through the states berry crops in particular. Were still in a situation thats pretty dire for fruit growers, said Richard Cowles, a scientist with the Experiment Station.

Weather patterns drive infestations, especially if its humid at ripening, a circumstance he called pure hell for growers. This summer he could see problems starting to increase duringstrawberry season. But now with the sustained hot and humid conditions, he said: Its going to be a wild ride for blueberry growers.

But what really has him worried is a new arrival the Spotted Lanternfly after one was sighted in Southbury fall. It will eat pretty much anything, but has a special taste for vineyards, which growers in Pennsylvania learned the hard way. It sucked the living daylights out of the vineyards and killed them outright, Cowles said. They dont have a significant number of enemies to keep population in check.

If they arrive in Connecticut, he worried, there would be mind-boggling impacts.

So far there have been no additional sightings, but hes anticipating there will be. Were just waiting for other shoe to drop.

Connecticut Agricultural Expeeriment Station

This year, West Nile Virus began to show up in mosquitoes in early July. A human case was reported this week.

Beyond all the hand-wringing over small but troublesome critters, its the big eye-popping animals that have gotten a lot of the publics attention. Reports of bears, bobcats and coyotes in particular, along with smaller mammals have been nonstop.

Whats actually different and whats perceived to be different those are two different things, said Jenny Dickson, director of DEEPs wildlife division. She attributes a good bit of it to people being at home more due to the pandemic. Theyre noticing more things than they do normally.

There are definitely more bears.

Some of the wildlife activity has to do with people staying indoors, especially this spring when hibernating animals reappeared, giving them human-free spaces to roam in. Some of it has to do with active restoration efforts, such as with osprey. But a lot of it has to with climate change.

It was a warm winter, making it easier for species to survive and their food more plentiful. Ranges and seasons for animals have expanded generally due to the warming climate.

I think there are populations that are just expanding, and its not necessarily tied entirely to mild climates or food availability, although both of those things help, Dickson said.

But whatever the animal for whatever reason, Dickson is good with it.

What has stood out for us are the number of calls weve gotten from folks who are sort of newly discovering the wildlife around them, she said. For them its a combination of new and scary and fascinating all at once.

See the article here:
Where Connecticut, COVID, climate change and critters intersect - The CT Mirror

Chapter overview

2 weeks

After looking at several of the organ systems within the human body in overview in Chapter 2, the next three chapters will now look at some of these systems in more detail.

This chapter on "Human reproduction" starts off by looking at the purpose of reproduction and how humans mature during puberty in order to be able to reproduce. This will be very relevant to your learners as they are in this stage in their lives at the moment.

Be aware that learners might not feel comfortable discussing reproduction in the classroom, and older teens might laugh or make inappropriate jokes to conceal their own discomfort.

Some tips for when teaching human reproduction:

3.1 Purpose and puberty (2 hours)

Tasks

Skills

Recommendation

Activity: Reflecting on population growth

Identifying, predicting, writing

Optional

3.2 Reproductive organs (1 hour)

Tasks

Skills

Recommendation

Activity: Identify the role of the male and female bodies in reproduction

Identifying, writing

Suggested

Activity: Identify structure and function

Identifying, describing, explaining, writing

CAPS suggested

Activity: Comparing the reproductive organs

Comparing, summarising, writing

Suggested

3.3 Stages of reproduction (3 hours)

Tasks

Skills

Recommendation

Activity: Flow diagram of the pathway of sperm

Summarising, describing

CAPS suggested

Activity: Comparing fertilisation and menstruation

Comparing, summarising, drawing

Suggested

Activity: Debate Surrogacy

Working in groups, discussing, debating, presenting, writing

CAPS suggested

Activity: Describing different contraceptives

Identifying, describing

Optional

Activity: Forum discussion

Working in groups, discussing, debating, presenting, writing

Optional

At this stage in your life, your body is probably going through all sorts of changes as it grows, develops and matures. In this chapter we will learn more about these changes and why they occur.

You have previously learnt that reproduction is one of the seven life processes, and like all organisms, humans need to reproduce to ensure the survival of the species.

You can use this section to open up discussion about population growth and population control. At the end of the chapter there is a debate regarding contraceptives but teachers may choose to include a discussion on the different ethical points of view regarding contraceptives at this point already.

Video on our world population growth.

An interesting suggestion if you have an internet connection and a projector or smartboard to display a website, is to open up the link provided here in the visit box on our "Breathing Earth". This simulation very clearly shows how our population is growing. You can open up the link at the start of the lesson and leave it running for the duration. Then at the end of the lesson, you can see how much the population of the world has grown during your one lesson. Alternatively, if you do not have an internet connection in your classroom, ask some of your learners to take out their mobile phones and go to the site. Even if you only have a few mobile phones within the classroom, you can get learners to each take a look at the site at the start and end of the lesson. Do not be afraid to embrace the technology that your learners are using on a daily basis! They most likely have their cellphones in their pockets in class anyway, unless they have been banned during school hours.

Have a look at the website link provided in the visit box about our "Breathing Earth". This will give you an idea about how our population is growing.

In 2011 the world's population grew to 7 billion people, one billion more since 1999. Medical advances and increases in agricultural production (food) allow more and more people to live longer lives.

In ancient times, countries such as India, Rome and Greece, saw a large population as a source of power. The Romans even made laws about how many babies a couple could have and punished those who did not follow the rules. Yet Confucius (551-478 BC) thought that too many people was a problem, as there wouldn't be enough food to feed everyone, leading to war and famine and various other problems. Today in China this philosophy still applies and couples are only allowed one baby and are heavily taxed if they have more than one.

South Africa's population grew by 15,5%, or almost 7-million people, in the space of 10 years to reach a total of 51.7-million in 2011. This is according to the country's latest national census which took place in 2011. The last census took place 10 years previously in 2001.

QUESTIONS:

These questions are meant to stimulate discussion within your class. You can go through these as a class or learners can then do them individually and then discuss their answers.

List any possible reasons why you think South Africa would want to have a large population.

Learner-dependent answer. Might include: more people so more manpower and more taxes; might include religious or cultural bias; etc.

What are some advantages and disadvantages to the country in which the number of children per couple is limited so that the population growth is limited?

Advantages: lower population growth; lower pressure on the country's resources; lower drain on resources, particularly on the education resources; higher standard of living for families

Disadvantages: fewer people to pay taxes; religious or cultural non-compliance might lead to revolt

Predict what possible long-term problems might arise if the population in South Africa continues to grow at the fast rate at which it is currently growing.

With fewer resources to go around many might starve and since they might not have work or social grants to support them. Unemployment would increase even more. This might also lead to increased crime as people try to provide for themselves and their children, as well as drug and alcohol abuse as a coping mechanism.

Have a look at the following diagram which shows the percentage growth a country's population in a year. The different colours give an indication of the growth rate, as shown in the key. For example, countries which are colour coded yellow, have an annual growth rate of 3%. This means their population increase by 3% each year. Answer the questions which follow.

Which continent would you say has the largest percentage growth rate each year? Justify your answer.

Africa has the largest population growth rate. This can be seen as it has the largest number of countries which are coloured green and yellow which shows the highest annual percentage growth rate.

Many countries in Europe are coloured light purple in the diagram. What does this mean?

Learners need to look at the legend to see that light purple means a growth rate of "

Various population control methods are put in place around the world - contraceptives to stop women from falling pregnant, abortion clinics, large tax incentives to convince people not to want more children, and others. What is your opinion about population control methods and do you think they should be allowed in modern society?

Learner-dependent answer.

The science of overpopulation (video).

The human body is geared towards reproduction to ensure the survival of the species. Men have to produce sperm and ensure that they come into contact with a female egg cell. Women have to produce (and store) egg cells that can be fertilised by a male sperm cell.

Children's bodies and sexual organs are not mature and cannot yet perform the reproductive function. Puberty is therefore the time when a child's body develops and changes. The sexual organs mature to enable the body to produce sex cells. These sex cells are called gametes.

Puberty is the stage in the life cycle of humans when we become capable of sexual reproduction. Girls and boys do not, generally, go through puberty at exactly the same time. So how does puberty "start"?

Many of the complex actions that take place in our bodies are controlled by chemical messengers called hormones. Hormones are produced by different glands in our bodies. The pituitary gland is an important gland which controls most of the body's hormones and hormonal activities. It is about the size of a pea and located at the base of the brain.

Puberty is brought on when the pituitary gland releases specific hormones into the bloodstream. These hormones then travel to the immature sex organs and signal the hormones in these to be released.

In girls, the ovaries are stimulated by hormones released by the pituitary gland to release the hormone oestrogen. In males, the testes are stimulated to release the hormone testosterone. These hormones initiate all the bodily changes that you experience during puberty.

The main purpose of puberty is for the sexual organs to mature. However, the hormones which are released from the reproductive organs also start a number of other changes in the human body. We call these secondary sexual characteristics.

Puberty brings about the following secondary changes in females:

At the start of puberty boys are, on average, 2 cm shorter than girls, yet adult men are approximately 13 cm taller than adult women. Puberty brings about the following secondary changes in males' bodies:

Let's take a look at the reproductive organs.

Let's take a closer look at the male and female reproductive organs to see how they are structured and what functions they perform.

In the space below, explain what you think the role of the male and female bodies are in reproduction.

The male body has to produce sperm and deliver this sperm to the female body in order for it to come into contact with the female egg (ovum).

The female body has to...

The female body has to produce ova (egg cells). Once a month, one egg cell is released and if a sperm cell penetrates the outer layer of the egg cell, fertilisation can take place. This may then lead to pregnancy and the female body adapts to provide for all the needs of the unborn baby before giving birth.

As you learn about the reproductive organs,think carefully about theirstructure and how their structure is adapted to their function.

The male reproductive organs include:

1. Testes and scrotum

Males are born with their two testes hanging outside their bodies. The testes in young boys do not produce sperm. During puberty the two testes release testosterone which then triggers the production of sperm.

Testes is plural and testis is singular.

Up until the 17th century, scientists believed that a tiny, fully formed human being called ahomunculus was passed from the father into the mother's womb during sexual intercourse and grew in size in the mother's womb.

The two testes are each contained in a pouch of skin called the scrotum. The scrotum ensures that the testes are kept at a constant temperature of 35C which is the temperature at which sperm is produced.

Semen contains sperm cells, dissolved nutrients and enzymes that nourish and protect the sperm inside the woman's body. Every millilitre of semen can contain up to 100 million sperm cells!

2. Sperm duct (vas deferens)

Different tubes (ducts) carry the semen from the testes to the penis. The sperm duct carries the sperm from the testes to the urethra in the penis.

3. The penis

The penis is the external sex organ. The head is often covered by a loose fold of skin called the foreskin. The penis needs to be erect (stiff and hard) to be able to go into the vagina to deliver the sperm to the cervix during ejaculation.

Some cultures have the foreskin removed, which is called circumcision. This may be done when the boy is a baby or later, at puberty.

4. Urethra

Originally posted here:
Stages Of Reproduction | Human Reproduction | Siyavula