The Bitcoin bull market officially started on March 1, according to pseudonymous quantitative analyst PlanB, who is also the creator of the controversial stock-to-flow (S2F) model for Bitcoins price.

The Bitcoin (BTC)accumulation phase has ended, along with the easy Bitcoin buying opportunities, according to an X post by PlanB, referencing the S2F chart.

The pseudonymous analysts prediction came two days after Bitcoin breached $60,000 for the first time in over two years. Bitcoin fell 0.75% in the 24 hours to 3:00 pm Central European Time to change hands at $62,472.

While the S2F model gained popularity during the 2021 bull run, its far from being a perfect Bitcoin price oracle. According to the chart, Bitcoin should have breached the $100,000 mark in early August 2021, when Bitcoin was trading around the $44,000 mark. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also criticized the S2F model for giving investors a false sense of certainty.

PlanBs predictions are in line with other analyst expectations. According to Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, Bitcoin usually consolidates during the period immediately after the halving but rallies in the following months. Lunde told Cointelegraph:

Beyond the much anticipated halving, the recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also contributed to the growing investor interest in Bitcoin and its subsequent price appreciation.

Bitcoin price saw a 3% correction after Grayscales recently converted Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF dumped $598.9 million worth of BTC on Feb. 29. Despite the outflows, Bitcoin price is up over 22% during the past week, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Excluding Grayscales ETF, the nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2 billion in combined daily volume for the second consecutive day on Feb. 28. The new ETFs accounted for 75% of new Bitcoin investments since their launch on Jan. 11, according to a report by on-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant.

The ETFs have introduced passive, price-agnostic demand for the first time in Bitcoins history, which will lead to new all-time highs before the end of 2024, according to a research report by Bitfinex Analysts, shared with Cointelegraph.

Related: US govt moved $922 million of seized Bitcoin after BTC price broke $60,000

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Bitcoin analyst PlanB predicts 10 months of 'face melting FOMO' - Cointelegraph

The upcoming launch of euro-denominated Bitcoin and Ether futures products could bolster institutional cryptocurrency adoption in the eurozone, Giovanni Vicioso, the executive director of equity and alternative products at the CME Group, told Cointelegraph in an exclusive interview.

Vicioso added that CMEs upcoming euro-denominated futures products also received interest from macro hedge funds, small asset managers and long-term crypto investors.

CME is the worlds leading derivatives marketplace and encompasses four exchanges. The firm is preparing to expand its cryptocurrency derivatives products, adding euro-denominated Micro Bitcoin and Micro Ether futures products, which are set to launch on March 18.

The introduction of the euro-denominated products will essentially create a de facto foreign exchange (FX) contract, which is expected to attract more market participants, Vicioso told Cointelegraph:

Related: MicroStrategy adds 3K BTC as Bitcoin ETFs are poised to surpass gold ETFs

Bitcoin (BTC)-based exchange-traded products (ETPs) have been generating significant interest since the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the U.S. on Jan. 11. Excluding the converted Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ETF, the nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2 billion in combined daily volume for the second consecutive day on Feb. 28.

The anticipation and regulatory approval of the U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs has led to an increase in overall institutional interest in Bitcoin, according to Vicioso.

The CME has nearly doubled its average daily Bitcoin trading volume, from an average of $1.6 billion a day in 2023 to over $3 billion of daily trading volume in 2024, according to Vicioso.

Bitcoin fell 0.62% in the 24 hours leading up to 1:15 pm UTC to trade at $62,383. The worlds first cryptocurrency is up 22.50% on the weekly chart.

Related: US govt moved $922 million of seized Bitcoin after BTC price broke $60,000

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Euro-denominated Bitcoin futures will bolster institutional adoption CME director - Cointelegraph

Recent developments suggest Bitcoin (BTC) could serve as more than just digital gold, according to a researcher at the crypto asset management giant Grayscale.

In a new analysis, Grayscales Michael Zhao highlights Bitcoins surging on-chain activity.

The advent of ordinal inscriptions has revitalized on-chain activity, with over 59 million non-fungible-token-like (NFT) collectibles inscribed, generating upwards of $200 million in transaction fees for miners as of February 2024. This trend is expected to persist, bolstered by renewed developer interest and ongoing innovations on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Bitcoin ordinals enable users to inscribe digital data such as images and videos to a single satoshi, an individual unit of BTC, to create the equivalent of NFTs on the top crypto assets network. Zhao says ordinals have instigated a cultural shift in the Bitcoin community, attracting new developers to the ecosystem.

In addition to ordinals, the Grayscale analyst highlights that BTCs use case is evolving with the emergence of smart contract protocols running on the Bitcoin network.

Among the existing layer-2 solutions, some have been quietly laying the groundwork for this evolution for years. Stacks stands out as a platform that has introduced fully expressive smart contracts to Bitcoin. It has fostered the development of various decentralized applications (DApps) that leverage Bitcoins security, enabling functionalities ranging from DeFi (decentralized finance) to NFTs. These DApps represent the forefront of Bitcoins transition into a multi-faceted ecosystem, capable of supporting a wide array of blockchain-based applications.

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $49,801.

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Bitcoin Becoming More Than Just Digital Gold As On-Chain Activity Soars: Grayscale Research - The Daily Hodl

Robinhood traders havent taken to spot Bitcoinexchange-traded funds (ETFs), with the bulk of crypto trading on the platform remaining in spot Bitcoin, says the companys chief financial officer.

On a Feb. 13 earnings call for Robinhoods fourth quarter (Q4) 2023 results, Jason Warnick said only 5% of its users crypto trading occurs through Bitcoin (BTC)ETFs, with the other 95% opting for direct spot Bitcoin trading.

We saw it was mostly additive. There were some traders that sold out of [trading] spot and got an ETF, but that was really more of the exception, Warnick said. Overall, we dont view this as cannibalization. Its additive.

Warnick added that some of the pickup in the Bitcoin ETFs on its platform was from Robinhood traders adding ETFs to their retirement accounts. The platform offers all 10 United States spot Bitcoin ETFs that went live for trading on Jan. 11.

The new roster of spot Bitcoin ETFs have raked in over $10 billion in assets under management since they launched, with Bitcoins price jumping 6.5%, briefly surpassing $50,000 on Monday, Feb. 12 its highest point in over two years.

Robinhood saw its revenues for 2023, specifically in Q4, bolstered by increased crypto transaction revenue. The company beat Wall Street analyst estimates and saw its stock price jump over 10% in after-hours trading.

Robinhoods Q4 and full-year 2023 earnings to Dec. 31, 2023, showed annual revenues of $1.87 billion, up 37% year-on-year. Its Q4 revenue earnings came in at $471 million, up 24% from a year earlier, beating Zacks analyst estimates by over 3%.

Related: How Bitcoin ETFs could impact the average investment portfolio

The trading platform pinned the jump in total Q4 revenues primarily on an increase in crypto trading revenue, which reached $43 million in the same timeframe, an increase of 10% year-over-year.

In its earnings presentation, Robinhood said its notional crypto trading volume in Q4 was up 89% over Q3, spurred by growth in customer numbers and overall trade volumes.

Robinhood shares closed down around 1.5% on Feb. 13 but jumped 10.5% to over $13 in after-hours trading, per Google Finance.

Its year-to-date share price has struggled, falling over 4% compared with the nearly 4.5% gain posted by the S&P 500. Robinhood is down over 78% from its $55 all-time high on Aug. 6, 2021.

Big Questions: How can Bitcoin payments stage a comeback?

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Bitcoin ETFs haven't cannibalized spot Bitcoin trading: Robinhood CFO - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin surged to $50,000, marking its highest point in over two years.

Since the beginning of last year, Bitcoins value has seen a threefold increase, rebounding from a significant 64% drop in 2022. The last instance Bitcoin reached the $50,000 milestone was in December 2021, though it still has not surpassed its peak of nearly $69,000 from November 2021.

This surge comes from a positive Bitcoin ETF market, as the new funds have attracted over $8 billion in inflows within just a month of trading. Despite Grayscales Bitcoin Trust experiencing large outflows throughout January, those withdrawals have stabilized, and spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold around $2.8 billion in net assets.

This revival also aligns with a renewed appetite for risk among broader financial market investors, spurred by anticipations that the Federal Reserve may soon soften its monetary policy stance. Typically, the prospect of higher interest rates diminishes the appeal of riskier investments, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoins latest price achievement has effectively erased the losses it suffered following the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin in May 2022. This event triggered a domino effect of failures within the crypto industry, culminating in the downfall of Sam Bankman-Frieds FTX exchange in November 2022.

With BTC reaching $50,000 again, there is greater optimism surrounding the largest cryptocurrency, especially with the next halving set to take place in April. A recent survey by crypto exchange BItget showed that 70% of investors globally intend to increase their crypto investments in 2024, and 84% expect BTC to surpass its all-time high this year.

Bitcoins price dynamics may be intriguing post-halving if such positive market sentiment remains strong.

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Bitcoin reaches $50k as ETFs record $2.8b net assets in January - crypto.news

Crypto investors are targeting record Bitcoin prices with increased call options activity on the market.

Data from Bloomberg Intelligence highlights a marked rise in the activity for call options expiring on Mar. 29 at strike prices of $60,000, $65,000, and $75,000. This comes despite Bitcoin having achieved its all-time high of $69,000 more than two years ago, in November 2021.

A high activity level in the options market indicates significant speculative interest and strategic positioning among Bitcoin investors.

When traders heavily invest in call options at strike prices above the current market price, it suggests a bullish outlook, as they anticipate the assets price will rise to or beyond these levels. This heightened activity reflects the markets sentiment and expectations for future price movements and increases volatility and liquidity.

On Monday, Bitcoin surged to $50,000 for the first time in two years and also recorded seven days of consecutive gains. Following this uptick, BTC experienced a price correction, trading back at $49,000, as traders capitalized on the recent rally.

Key factors such as anticipated reductions in interest rates and the forthcoming halving event are seen as primary catalysts with the potential to elevate Bitcoins valuation further.

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Bitcoin options traders anticipating new all-time high - crypto.news

Higher-than-expected inflation data preceded a correction on Tuesday morning that brought Bitcoin (BTC) below the $50,000 price level.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in January, a 3.1% increase year-on-year and a decline from 3.4% in December.

The numbers were hotter than the 0.2% that analysts were expecting, and expectations of a Fed rate cut in the coming months are now being challenged, pressuring risk assets like BTC and equities, which are also headed for the biggest daily correction of the year.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, told Reuters the potential for rate cuts has likely been pushed further into the future.

If this keeps up with another month or two of inflation staying high, you can kiss a June (rate cut) goodbye and were probably looking at September Its a hotter-than-expected report and its part of what the Fed has been alluding to when it says its too early to say that inflation has been beaten.

The sell-off has consequently induced a surge in the dollar, with the dollar index (DXY) making new highs on the year.

According to the founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the dollar strength is being driven by expectations of a Fed cut being delayed. The analysts, who go by Negentropic on the social media platform X, say that convincing signs of cooling inflation will likely be the catalyst that brings strength back into Bitcoin.

Whats behind the surge of the US Dollar?

USD ends another week on a high, notching its fourth consecutive week of gains, reaching above 104.00.

Conclusion: As we await CPI data and Fed updates, the USDs trajectory remains uncertain, with implications for both currency markets and assets like Bitcoin. Stay tuned for potential shifts ahead.

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $48,735, a 2.7% decrease on the day.

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Hot Inflation Data Triggers Crypto Correction After Bitcoin Hits $50,000 for First Time Since 2021 - The Daily Hodl

Its sometimes easy to forget that Bitcoin (BTC) is just a teenager, launched in 2009 by the enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto.

Since then, Bitcoin has seen a meteoric rise, increasing from fractions of a penny to an all-time high of nearly INR 56,96,689 in November 2021.

The big B was the best-performing asset class of the decade preceding that all-time high. Bitcoin returned more than 230% during the 10-year period ending in March 2021. For that reason alone, its now firmly entrenched in the mainstream.

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But Bitcoins price journey has been far from smooth. The original digital currency has experienced many violent dips and pumps. Lets take a closer look at the ups and downs of Bitcoins price history.

Bitcoin was originally worth next to nothing.

The transaction that first gave Bitcoin monetary value was in October 2009, when Finnish computer science student Martti Malmi, known online as Sirius, sold 5,050 coins for around INR 414.65, giving each Bitcoin a value of $0.0009 each.

The exchange took place on PayPal. That can be hard to believe, with so many crypto exchanges dedicated to buying and selling BTC nowadays.

The growth in BTC adoption in the early years started slow. If you look at Bitcoins pricing data on Google Finance, it only goes back to Nov. 20, 2015.

The early years were characterized by very little infrastructure, with only a few hobbyists buying and selling BTC.

There was no action to speak of and no news cycle, says Alex Preda, a professor of professions, markets, and technology at Kings Business School in London. Bitcoin was a fringe phenomenon confined to a subculture of software engineering and not a financial phenomenon.

The first real world transaction took place in May 2010 on a Bitcoin forum.

Posting to the bitcointalk.org forum, Florida native Laszlo Hanyecz enquired whether anyone would order him two pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoins.

After purchasing two pizzas from Papa Johns worth approximately INR 3,380, the price of each Bitcoin came to $0.0041. Those pizzas are the most expensive ever ordered, worth nearly INR 16 billion today, averaging around INR 1 billion per slice.

Hanyecz did the impractical transaction for the sake of it, telling The Sun, I wanted to do the pizza thing because, to me, it was free pizza. I mean, I coded this thing and mined Bitcoin, and I felt like I was winning the internet that day.

Bitcoin wasnt even worth a dollar until February 2011.

Thats when the fireworks started. By June 2011, the price of Bitcoin had shot up 30 times, reaching a value of INR 2,471. In a hint of what was to come, the spike didnt last long, with Bitcoin dropping to INR 411..

Liquidity in late 2011 was low, and Bitcoins first competitor, Litecoin (LTC), emerged on the crypto scene in October 2011.

The introduction of LTC spelled some doubt among the community, with a 90% drawdown testing resolve. Despite a slight rebound, 2012 was uneventful, and BTC closed the year around INR 1,070.

Bitcoins price trajectory began to change in 2013.

Exchanges, most notably Mt. Gox handled 70% of all Bitcoin transactions by the end of 2014 and started onboarding more and more users. Crypto became more accessible as a result.

The price followed the increase in adoption. Opening in 2013 at INR 1,070, BTC skyrocketed to breach INR 82,389 by November 2013.

Success waned the following year after the Tokyo-based Mt. Gox experienced a security breach with hackers stealing INR 4,942 million from its coffers. Mt. Gox shut down due to insolvency causing Bitcoin to slump to around INR 24,710 by the end of the year.

The Mt. Gox case generally demolished investor trust in BTC, and it affected the sentiment toward crypto on a much broader scale, says Alex Faliushin, CEO of crypto lending platform CoinLoan.io.

Between 2015 and 2016, Bitcoin trudged slowly along, making the price action relatively muted. It closed 2016 at around INR 82,389.

The following year saw more investors pour into the asset as increasing media coverage began to draw in the average retail customer.

Price barriers were torn apart with ease. BTC broke through INR 82,389 in early January 2017 and INR 1,64,733 in May 2017. BTC then doubled to INR 3,29,464 in August 2017.

Now, Bitcoin was finally beginning to win doubters over. Futures contracts began trading on the CME and many in the market felt like Bitcoin was becoming a genuine financial asset class.

The fear of missing out took hold, and more and more people flooded in to buy this up-only asset. Bitcoin popped to INR 8,23,537 in November 2021 before nearly doubling to almost INR 15,64,720 the following month.

Little did investors know then, but it took nearly three years to regain these price levels again.

The year 2018 didnt slow Bitcoins downtrend. BTCs price collapsed, closing out the year below INR 3,29,464. Then digital currency closed out 2019 at around INR 5,76,472.

With two years of relative inactivity and a consistent downtrend, many wrote Bitcoin off as a fad, having failed to solidify its place in the mainstream market.

Then the Covid-19 pandemic struck, and the stock markets dropped violently in mid-March 2020.

Bitcoin wasnt spared, shedding 50% of its value in less than 48 hours to trade below INR 3,29,464. Some hypothesized that the Covid-inspired dip would be Bitcoins final nail in the coffin.

But those skeptics were very wrong. With the Federal Reserve responding to the Covid-19 pandemic by printing money for fiscal stimulus, asset prices across the board rose sharply.

Growth and tech stocks showed explosive gains, but Bitcoin got everybody talking. After halving to less than INR 3,29,464in March, BTC hit INR 8,23,537 in May 2020.

But it made its real move in the final quarter of 2020. It shattered its all-time high by breaching INR 12,35,197 in November 2020, moving above INR 16,47,196 in December 2020, and ending the year at around INR 23,88,435 with a market cap of more than INR 44,384 billion.

As retail investors poured into markets and the Federal Reserve kept printing money, assets continued to inflate. Bitcoin hit INR 32,93,890 a week into 2021, INR 41,17,363 in February 2021 and INR 49,41,104 in March 2021.

After a turbulent couple of weeks in May, it dropped to less than INR 27,99,959 before rising to another all-time high close to INR 56,81,883 in November 2021.

Since November 2021, Bitcoin has struggled with the rest of the market. The up-only narrative from the days of money printing was over, with economies struck by rampant inflation.

The Fed has been hiking interest rates since early 2022, with assets furthest out on the risk spectrum getting punished the most.

Higher interest rates mean a greater cost to borrow, less investment, and a general reduction in the level of demand in the economy.

Bitcoin has been in freefall since early this year amid the crypto winter.

The most damaging month this year was May, when the collapse of stablecoin TerraUSD sparked a round of contagion in the cryptocurrency markets, pulling Bitcoin down from INR 32,10,148 in early May to INR 16,46,230 by mid-June, where it hovers today.

Investors hope this downturn is just the latest dip to precede a sharp rise, as history has repeatedly shown for Bitcoin.

Historically, October is known as a green month, increasing 26% on average. If thats the case, we may see prices head toward the INR 19,75,609 mark.

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The Bitcoin market witnessed a strong recovery in 2023 after facing a slight downside due to global macroeconomic situations and inflation data. The year turned out to be uncontrollable for the cryptocurrency, BTC.

In the first month of the year January, Bitcoin was trading at a low value of $16,000, it touched its peak later in July at $31,000 with a market capitalization of around $607 billion.

The stubborn inflation in countries like the U.S. and the U.K. also led BTC to fall below the level of $26,000. But, Bitcoin walked the stairs of recovery in the second half of the year. In July 2023 it reached around $30,500 but maintained recovering stability from October, when it was trading at around $34,298. At the end of the year 2023, BTC was trading at $42,809 as of Dec. 20 with a market capitalization of $838.58 billion.

At the beginning of the current year 2024, in the first week of January BTC was trading at around $43,906 with a market capitalization of around $915.81 billion. The recovery and rise have brought stability among the coins BTC and ETH.

As of Feb. 13, 2024, BTC hit the level of $50,107 for the first time since Dec. 2021 with a market capitalization of $982.72 billion and a cryptocurrency market capitalization of $1.87 trillion.

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Bitcoin Price History Chart 2009 To 2022 Forbes Advisor INDIA - Forbes

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Short term holders in profit sent record Bitcoin to exchanges on road to $50k - CryptoSlate

The driving force behind the recent sell-off in bitcoin may have run its course, according to JPMorgan. Bitcoin rallied in the second half of 2023 as optimism around the approval of exchange traded funds grew, but their debut earlier this month has proven to be a "sell the news" event for the world's largest cryptocurrency. Bitcoin briefly traded above $49,000 shortly before the funds launched, but then fell more than 20% before seeming to stabilize around $40,000. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin has retreated since the approval of bitcoin ETFs. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note to clients Thursday that the main source of the selling has come from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) . The fund, which traded at a steep discount as an over-the-counter product before investors became confident that a conversion to an ETF would happen, has seen heavy outflows over the past two weeks. "Profit-taking on previous GBTC investments, made at a discount to [net asset value] last year, has likely been a major driver behind bitcoin's correction; $4.3bn has thus far exited GBTC since its conversion to ETF," Panigirtzoglou said. Some outflows from GBTC were expected, given the prior discount and its high cost relative to other bitcoin ETFs. Panigirtzoglou, who had estimated $3 billion of outflows, said that the decline is likely profit taking rather than a sign that the cash is moving to other options, and that the outflows should slow from here. "We conclude that GBTC profit taking has largely happened already. In turn, this would imply that most of the downward pressure on bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us," Panigirtzoglou said. Even with the outflows from GBTC, the fund still has about $20 billion in assets under management. And some of the other bitcoin ETFs are seeing big inflows, with funds from iShares ( IBIT ) and Fidelity Wise Origin ( FBTC ) both surpassing $1 billion in inflows. The total inflows and decline in price of bitcoin have missed the optimistic estimates of some crypto bulls, but the dollar amounts are still large compared to other ETF launches.

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This is what was behind the bitcoin sell-off and why JPMorgan thinks it could be ending - CNBC

Bitcoin price increased by 17.5% over the past seven days and traded above $50,000 for the first time since December 2021. Feb. 12s Bitcoin price action can be partially attributed to inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) funds, which began trading on Jan. 11, but are the current inflows strong enough to justify further Bitcoin (BTC)gains above $50,000?

The worlds largest mutual fund managers including BlackRock, Fidelity and ARK 21Shares have successfully launched spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the instruments surpassed $10 billion in assets in less than a month. Over the next couple of months, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are expected to increase as trading firms complete their due diligence on the newly launched investment vehicles

With Bitcoin hitting new multiyear highs, lets take a look at how retail investors feel about the crypto and macro markets on Feb. 12.

Traders focus remains on the macroeconomic scenario after the S&P 500 closed above 5,000 points on Feb. 9 for the first time in history, following a 13.9% gain in three months. The bullish momentum might temporarily pause as investors analyze a handful of companies expected to report quarterly numbers this week, including Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Coinbase and DoorDash.

United States inflation Consumer Price Index data is also due on Feb. 13 and will guide the U.S. Federal Reserves interest rate path. The market consensus points to multiple cuts from the current 5.25% level, which could incentivize investors to move away from fixed-income assets.

However, theres no guarantee that a migration to risk-on assets would benefit cryptocurrencies. For instance, Google searches for the phrase buy Bitcoin have been stagnant for the past couple of weeks, indicating that the asset might be distant from garnering mainstream attention despite easier access through spot ETFs.

Data suggests that retail traders typically lag behind bull runs, usually entering the cycle a couple of days or weeks after major price milestones. However, other metrics, such as the demand for stablecoins in China, show no increase in retail trader activity. Excessive retail demand for cryptocurrencies typically causes the stablecoin premium to soar above 1.5%, while bear markets lead to a discount.

Presently, the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin is trading above the official U.S. dollar currency, sustaining a 1% premium for the past four weeks. Bulls could interpret the lack of excitement as a positive indicator, meaning the typical FOMO fear of missing out behavior seen from retail investors has yet to be seen.

The long-to-short net ratio of top traders accounts for other factors that may have solely affected the stablecoin markets. Analysts can better gauge whether whales and arbitrage desks are leaning bullish or bearish by consolidating positions across spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts.

At Binance, the long-to-short ratio of top traders now stands at 1.35, up from 1.24 on Feb. 9, indicating that whales and arbitrage desks have increased their leverage longs despite the 14% weekly gains. Meanwhile, top traders at OKX shifted from a 0.46 ratio, favoring shorts, to the current 1.07 long-to-short ratio on Feb. 12. Essentially, investors at OKX were initially betting against a rally above $45,000 but quickly changed their stance to a bullish outlook.

Related: Bitcoin hits $50K for first time since December 2021

Data from professional Bitcoin long-to-short traders suggest confidence after BTC broke above $49,000 on Feb. 12, making it highly positive. While macroeconomic uncertainty and weakness in Chinese real estate markets may pose short-term risks for Bitcoins price, they also open the door for investors seeking alternative investments to protect against inflationary pressure.

The sustainable path above $50,000 has occurred in the absence of excessive leverage and FOMO from retail investors. However, the rally also hinges on the continued absorption of inflows by spot Bitcoin ETFs.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Excerpt from:

Bitcoin soaring past $50K without retail FOMO and high leverage is good for BTC - Cointelegraph

Those closely following the spot bitcoin ETF saga probably already know Bloomberg Intelligence analysts put the chances of approval in the coming week at 90%.

But not all see it that way.

Markus Thielen, head of research for crypto platform Matrixport, said Tuesday he believes all such applications fall short of a critical requirement adding that US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler still sees this industry in need of more stringent compliance.

Read more: SEC delaying spot bitcoin ETFs not impossible, but unlikely: Balchunas

As the SECs Jan. 10 deadline to rule on a proposal by Ark Invest and 21Shares approaches, other industry watchers continue to debate these funds fate.

Stefan Rust, CEO data provider Truflation, said he agrees Gensler has not given any indication he is ready to give a bitcoin ETF the green light.

Governments and regulators havent yet identified how they can exert control over cryptocurrencies, Rust argued in a statement. No doubt they are looking for more time and choke points to inhibit access to cryptocurrencies from a decentralized system.

Chase White and Joe Flynn, analysts at Compass Point Research & Trading, said in a Dec. 15 note that recent meetings between fund issuers and the SEC support the firms base case of January spot bitcoin ETF approval. The regulator could hold off though, they added.

We think theres a chance the SEC isnt quite ready to approve ETFs in early [January] and will ask Ark Invest [and] 21Sharesto refile the application to give the SEC more time, rather than reject it outright, White and Flynn wrote.

But Scott Johnsson, general partner at Van Buren Capital, said in a series of X posts Wednesday he is confident approval will come between Jan. 8 and Jan. 10.

Read more: Industry watchers pin down possible bitcoin ETF approval dates

He added: Theres no more bullets in the SECs gun.

The SECs August court loss to Grayscale Investments put more pressure on the regulator to approve spot bitcoin ETFs, industry watchers and executives have argued. Judges in the case said the regulators decision to deny the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to an ETF but approve bitcoin futures ETFs was arbitrary and capricious.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, called several arguments in the Matrixport report nonsensical in an X post, citing Grayscales court win.Galaxy has proposed a spot bitcoin ETF with partner Invesco.

Matrixport co-founder Jihan Wu defended Thielens report, saying he believes spot bitcoin ETF approval at some point is inevitable. Thielen did not return a request for comment.

Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer of digital wealth platform Yield App, called bitcoins Wednesday price dip a buying opportunity.

Should the SEC once again reject bitcoin ETFs, it would this time be blocking attempts from not just crypto-focused firms, but from fund giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco and Franklin Templeton.

BlackRock, which manages roughly $9 trillion in assets, has only ever had one ETF proposal rejected by the SEC a so-called non-transparent fund structure in 2014.

There is too much pressure and expectation from the worlds biggest asset managers for Gary Gensler and the rest of the approval committee to keep kicking the can down the road, Kiely said.

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With bitcoin ETF decision imminent, industry watchers debate if SEC will delay - Blockworks

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When the news broke that Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms made $32 million by reducing or being willing to reduce if needed its energy use last August in Texas, the outrage was immediate.

The states grid operator had frequently asked Texans to conserve electricity during sweltering summer heat, and many saw their power bills soar as they tried to stay cool. Meanwhile the state grid operator and an electricity provider effectively gave millions to a company whose industry is notorious for using gobs of electricity.

Riot made that giant sum of money because of how the states electricity market is designed. Companies that use large amounts of power, such as manufacturers or petrochemical plants, have long profited in similar ways.

There are two ways that large power users can make money on the states main power grid, according to industry experts. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the grid, pays large industrial users that promise to reduce their power consumption as needed, giving ERCOT some wiggle room in case a power plant unexpectedly fails or power demand is higher than forecast.

A company such as Riot also can profit by buying power at negotiated rates ahead of time retail power companies allow big companies to lock in prices that way then selling it back into the state market when energy prices soar during extreme heat or cold. In Riots case, when electricity prices soared during the summer heat wave, Riot sold power back to TXU, a Dallas-based electricity provider, which sold it back to the grid.

In a September statement that was later deleted from its website, Riot characterized its actions as helping to stabilize the grid.

Riots windfall highlighted for everyday power consumers just how much the Texas market can benefit businesses. Critics saw particular problems with cryptocurrency.

Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council, a group promoting cryptocurrency growth and innovation in Texas, said in an email that cryptocurrency operations can benefit the grid because they are able to reduce or completely shut down their operations quickly.

Bitcoin miners can use excess power overnight and on days where demand is normal, and they can turn off on very hot or very cold days when power is scarce and electricity prices are high, Bratcher said in an email.

But Mandy DeRoche, deputy managing attorney in the clean energy program at Earthjustice, a nonprofit environmental law group, said crypto mining businesses shouldnt be praised for reducing power on the grid when they are using so much to begin with.

I think that the rewards for their behavior are so lucrative and unfair, DeRoche said, adding, Its like were bending over backwards to give money to the (crypto) miner for putting the strain on the grid and the system in the first place.

China, which was one of the largest crypto mining hubs in the world, banned crypto mining in 2021, concerned about virtual currencies being used for criminal activity and disrupting financial systems. Cryptocurrency operations began opening in Texas, which as of March was home to five of the 10 largest Bitcoin mines in the U.S., according to an April investigation by The New York Times.

Some industry experts have advocated for Texas residents to be able to reap the same sort of benefits for using less power at critical times. Called demand response, its a way for power companies to pay or credit customers who agree to reduce their power usage when demand is high, by adjusting their thermostats or timing their energy-intensive activities like charging electric vehicles or running pool pumps at times when power demand is low.

Electricity providers such as Austin Energy and Reliant already have programs that pay customers to let the providers adjust their smart thermostats when necessary but the benefit is small. For residential customers, that typically translates to one-time bill credits that can range from $25 to $85.

Ed Hirs, a University of Houston lecturer and energy market expert, said hes worried that more Bitcoin mines coming to the state will mean higher electricity prices for Texans.

Why cant I get $5 a kilowatt an hour for shutting down my power? Hirs said. Why are these guys getting a sweetheart deal?

This summer, one of the hottest in recorded Texas history, Fort Worth resident Terri Rimmer said she conserved because she feared power being cut altogether. Rimmer remembers losing electricity for five days during the deadly 2021 winter storm, when ERCOT called for power cuts to millions of Texans because power generators failed in the extreme cold and the remaining power sources couldnt keep up with the high demand.

Rimmer said temperatures dropped as low as 25 degrees inside her home during the power outage. She bundled up in layers of clothing and blankets and shared her bed with her cat to stay warm.

That month, a Bitcoin mine that Riot Platforms acquired, Whinstone, received a $125 million windfall by selling power back to the grid, according to an investigation by the Tech Transparency Project.

This summer, when ERCOT warned of tight grid conditions because of unprecedented power demand, Rimmer, 57, turned off her air conditioning, closed her blinds and blackout curtains and put an ice pack on her chest to try to stay cool. Sweat glistened on her face.

"I wasn't like this before, Rimmer said. I didn't conserve until that winter storm hit. It's truly traumatizing. For me it changed how I do things."

According to Bratcher, there are more than 20 industrial-scale Bitcoin mining operations in Texas that can collectively consume up to 2,300 megawatts of energy a day enough to power about 460,000 homes during times of high demand in Texas. They house computers that run constantly to produce cryptocurrencies, decentralized digital currencies used as alternatives to government-backed, traditional currencies.

Crypto miners essentially compete to solve complex math problems that, when verified, produce one Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency that the companies can either hold as an asset or sell. The more computers they have and the longer they run, the better their chances of solving the problem the fastest.

Essentially every miner is running the exact same algorithm, and it really is just a matter of luck, said Samantha Robertson, a member of the corporate strategy team for Bitdeer, another Bitcoin company with an operation in Rockdale. In order to increase your chances, it makes sense to have these computers running at scale.

But if the value of Bitcoin is low and the cost of electricity is high, crypto companies can make more money selling power than mining Bitcoin. In August 2023, Riot reported selling 300 Bitcoins for a net proceeds of $8.6 million. Meanwhile, the company said it earned $24.2 million in credits to its electric bill for selling power back to the grid.

In September 2023, Riot said it earned $9 million in net proceeds from Bitcoin sales and $11 million in credits for selling power back to the grid.

Robertson said Bitdeer and other cryptocurrency companies are not doing anything different than other industries by selling power back to the grid when demand and prices rise.

Quite frankly were just playing by those rules, Robertson said.

Because of how much power cryptocurrency mines use and how quickly they can reduce their power consumption which can help relieve stress on the grid when demand is high it is important for ERCOT to work closely with them, ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a September interview.

I'm interested in their operating characteristics, Vegas said.

The electricity-selling agreements between retail power companies like TXU and cryptocurrency businesses like Riot arent public, so its difficult to discover exactly how the companies are benefiting from the current ERCOT rules, said DeRoche, of EarthJustice.

There's very little regulation, there's no reporting standards, DeRoche said during a September virtual press conference featuring cryptocurrency opponents from different organizations. It makes it difficult to track and to get a complete picture of the total impacts.

Eric Goff, a member of an ERCOT task force that was formed to help manage power demand from large industrial users, said ERCOT has proposed rules to have large power users such as Bitcoin mines register with ERCOT so it could track their impacts on the grid. The rules dont have a specific deadline to be implemented, he said.

Environmental advocates also argue that there is a less energy-intensive way, called proof of stake, to create Bitcoin that doesnt require computers to run so many calculations. The Texas Coalition Against Cryptomining held a weeklong protest in October to oppose Riots plans to build a cryptocurrency operation near the Central Texas city of Corsicana. Coalition Founder Jackie Sawicky faulted crypto businesses for failing to reduce their energy use.

Why are we tolerating this? Sawicky asked in an interview. Its insane.

In Texas, at least seven electric providers, including Austin Energy, Reliant and CPS Energy, offer residential demand response programs that typically let the providers remotely adjust customers smart thermostats a few degrees during critical periods when energy demand is high. Customers have to sign up for the programs.

Other companies such as OhmConnect are working with smart plugs in homes. Don Whaley, senior advisor to business at OhmConnect, said customers can plug devices such as refrigerators, lamps and other ordinary household electrical appliances into the smart plugs, allowing the company to adjust power consumption remotely when necessary.

While tens of thousands of Texans do participate in programs where they agree to reduce energy use Austin Energy said its program has 33,000 active smart thermostats, while Reliant said 100,000 customers are enrolled in its program the amount paid to residential customers is small.

Most companies give their customers credits that reduce their electricity bills. For example, Reliant and Direct Energy give out a one-time $25 credit for enrolling in the program, Austin Energy offers a $50 credit for enrolling and a yearly $25 credit for staying, and CPS Energy customers receive an $85 enrollment credit and an additional $30 for each year they participate.

Other companies incentivize through point systems. OhmConnect customers can earn points or currency called Watts that can be traded in for real money, gift cards or to make a donation to charity. Gexa Energys Green Rewards program gives residential customers Active Saver Rewards points that customers can redeem as credits to lower their power bills.

Octopus Energy, a Houston-based retail electric provider that has a startup-feeling office with exposed brick, said its Texas customers can sign up for programs that allow Octopus to adjust smart home thermostats and electric vehicle chargers based on power prices, which allows them to offer lower-cost power.

ERCOT is also running pilot projects in the Dallas and Houston areas that let people with Tesla Powerwall batteries sell their extra electricity onto the state grid when its needed. This concept is known as a virtual power plant and works by adding up lots of small power resources to create a meaningful amount of supply.

Texas Public Utility Commissioner Will McAdams said in an August interview that ERCOT needed to use all available strategies to get power onto the grid.

It was now or never, McAdams said. We needed to get this off the ground and allow our very interested Texas consumers to better engage in the ERCOT system.

Critics such as energy consultant Doug Lewin say the Public Utility Commission needs to get to a point where it can expand the pilot projects and make the concept a permanent part of how the grid works. Lewin also urged the PUC to put regulations in place so all residential customers can benefit from reducing power use on the grid just like large customers do.

This is absolutely critical if were going to have either a reliable or affordable grid, Lewin said.

A study by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, a nonprofit research advocacy group, found that if Texas implements statewide demand response and energy efficiency programs for residential customers and businesses from 2024 to 2030, Texas could reduce peak summer electricity demand by 15 gigawatts and the peak winter demand by 25 gigawatts.

Residential load is a small thing. Whaley said. But if we start getting this general acceptance to where people go, Oh okay yeah, I can go from 72 to 78 degrees for an hour because thats what the grid needs, then you start seeing real reductions in the market, to start seeing real impact.

Alejandra Martinez contributed to this story.

Disclosure: CPS Energy, Octopus Energy, Texas Blockchain Council, The New York Times and the University of Houston have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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Why cant more Texans profit like Bitcoin miners for using less power? - The Texas Tribune

Bitcoin holders have lots to be happy about in the New Year: Prices are up, a spot ETF seems all but approved, and a record number of bitcoins havent moved in one year. Today is even Bitcoins 15th birthday.

The US government should also be chuffed. Thanks to a healthy price rally, the Feds are now holding at least $8.3 billion in bitcoin up from $5 billion less than three months ago.

Between November 2020 and 2022, authorities in three separate actions altogether disclosed seizing 207,189 bitcoin (BTC) tied to seminal dark web market Silk Road, its hacker Jimmy Zhong, as well as the hackers of crypto exchange Bitfinex.

Read more: DOJ gets Silk Road coins worth $305M stuck in Bitcoin mempool

Less than 5% of those hauls have been sold after officials offloaded 9,861 BTC once owned by Silk Road on Coinbase last February. The trades netted $215 million for $21,800 per bitcoin on average, about half the current price.

US attorneys at the time said they intended to sell the rest of Silk Roads bitcoin 41,491 BTC worth $1 billion then and $1.8 billion today in four batches over the next calendar year, a period which expires in two months.

Only one batch has been potentially processed so far, when the US Department of Justice sent 8,200 BTC ($252 million then, $350 million now) to Coinbase last July. But its so far unconfirmed whether any trades actually took place.

Counting those transactions as sales would mean the US has generated $640 million by seizing and selling bitcoin over the past decade.

The price of bitcoin has multiplied 70 times in that time. Had the US government opted to hold all its seized bitcoin, rather than sell it, the Feds would still have around 400,000 BTC ($17.4 billion), nearly double its current cache.

Markets could indeed see more Silk Road bitcoin dumped by the US government over the next couple of months. Theres however no word yet on a timeline to sell the bitcoin seized from Bitfinex hackers Ilya Dutch Lichtenstein and Heather Razzlekhan Morgan.

In any case, the US could have the largest government bitcoin stash in the world, according to at least one set of researchers last year. The US was found leagues ahead of El Salvador, Ukraine, Bhutan, Venezuela and Finland, which together hold only 4,000 BTC ($172 million).

China was left out of that particular paper. Beijing seized 195,000 BTC ($8.4 billion) from crypto Ponzi scheme PlusToken in 2020 alongside swathes of other cryptocurrencies, including ether (ETH) and XRP.

If Beijing hasnt sold too early like the US, that would put the two superpowers basically tied for bitcoin holdings.

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Happy New Year: US government now holds more than $8B in bitcoin - Blockworks

Options trading analysts pointed to Jan. 10 and beyond as the timeline for an SEC decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs amid bearish speculation that all applications may be rejected.

Greekslive noted that a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stand on spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs was unlikely to arrive before Jan. 7, citing stock price actions from crypto mining operations and digital asset-related companies in America.

Current month puts are now cheaper, and block trades are starting to see active put buying, with options market data suggesting that institutional investors are not very bullish on the ETF market.

The likelihood of the ETF's passage became less and less likely, and the market saw a stalemate. Weakness in crypto mining stocks, and the sell-off in several crypto-related U.S. stocks, also reinforced the market's skepticism. ATM option IV plummeted to 52% for the week and pic.twitter.com/orjr1Wcwwf

The report was released to a market gripped by speculation surrounding 14 spot Bitcoin ETF applications filed by TradFi giants like BlackRock and crypto-native entities like Hashdex. Such products have been historically rejected by the SEC, although recent developments indicated by multiple meetings and updated filings fueled optimism for a different outcome in 2024.

However, some opinion leaders surmised that the SEC could delay spot Bitcoin ETFs beyond January. Indeed, Matrixport said the SEC may reject all bids for a fund that invests in Bitcoin at spot prices as crypto.news reported.

Legal experts said this outcome could result in litigation against the SEC due to a court ruling during the Grayscale case.

If the @SEC were to deny all spot $BTC ETFs, the applicants would immediately sue and the D.C. Court of Appeals would again rule that the SEC was arbitrary & capricious.

The SEC gave every reason they had for denying Grayscaleand lost.

I expect multiple approvals on Jan. 10.

A massive 7% drop followed the report from Matrixport in BTCs price as the token dipped below $43,000 and triggered over half a billion in liquidations across crypto markets. These liquidations had occurred within only four hours at press time.

While Matrixport expects Bitcoin to return toward $36,000, the company foresees a surge in BTC prices this month. Analysts at the crypto startup predicted a surge to at least $50,000 before February and a new all-time high above $125,000 by the years close.

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Greekslive: Spot Bitcoin ETF approval unlikely until 2nd week of January - crypto.news

The recent episode of SlateAsia brought together prominent voices in the space to discuss the tumultuous start of 2024 for Bitcoin and the rising interest in Ordinals.

The podcast featured Liam Wright, Senior Editor of CryptoSlate, Nate Whitehill, the CEO of CryptoSlate, and Jason Fang from Sora Ventures. Their conversation centered on the SECs potential rejection of the Bitcoin ETF and the impact of Ordinals on Bitcoins network and future.

Nate highlighted an article by Matrixport suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $50,000 shortly. However, the narrative changed rapidly, with a subsequent report predicting the SECs rejection of the Bitcoin ETF, contributing to market volatility.

Jason, expressing a long-term investment perspective, saw the price drop as a potential entry point for investors, indicating a bullish stance on Bitcoin.

The discussion shifted to Ordinals, a novel feature on the Bitcoin blockchain. Jason provided a historical context, tracing the evolution from early attempts at NFT-like features on Bitcoin, such as color coins, to the recent resurgence of interest through Ordinals.

He emphasized the significance of this development, marking a departure from Bitcoins traditional use case of trading and speculation to a platform where innovative applications can be built.

Jason articulated why a developer might prefer to build on Bitcoin over Solana or Ethereum:

If you believe that Solana or Ethereum is fast enough and you care more about speed and fees [than security], then you should NOT be building on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the most secure network.

Liam raised concerns about the growing mempool size and rising transaction costs on Bitcoins network due to the popularity of Ordinals. While acknowledging these challenges, Jason pointed out the increased network security and profitability for miners as potential upsides.

He also highlighted the shift in dynamics within the Web3 investment landscape, where retail investors often precede VCs in minting and acquiring new projects.

Jason expressed optimism about the future of Ordinals, seeing them as a catalyst for a new wave of innovation and investment in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

He rejected the need for a layer-2 solution for Ordinals in the near term, arguing for the unique value proposition of Bitcoins security and robustness over speed and efficiency.

In conclusion, the podcast emphasized a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, fueled by the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF and the fundamental value and real-world use cases emerging through developments like Ordinals.

This sentiment reflects a growing recognition of Bitcoins evolving role in the digital asset space, beyond just a trading asset to a platform for innovation and secure digital ownership.

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Speculation on potential Bitcoin ETF rejection causes market stir as focus shifts to ordinals' potential: SlateAsia Episode ... - CryptoSlate

Many are speculating on the ramifications of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission potentially deciding on exchanges listing a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) ahead of the Jan. 10 deadline.

At the time of publication, the SEC had not announced whether it planned to approve or disapprove of multiple spot BTC exchange-traded product applications in its pipeline. The commission has until Jan. 10 to decide whether to reject or approve listing shares of a Bitcoin ETF from ARK Invest and 21Shares. Analysts speculated that should the SEC approve one spot crypto investment vehicle, it could approve multiple ones.

A Jan. 3 report from 10x Researchs Markus Thielen suggested that despite bullish trends in the price of Bitcoin, ETF applicants hadnt met the requirements necessary for SEC approval. The research paper was released amid reports that the SEC planned to hold meetings with major exchanges to finalize comments on applications submitted by spot crypto ETF issuers.

The prevailing one-sided market consensus anticipates SEC approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs by next week, said Thielen. We, however, see an opportunity to trade against consensus, emphasizing the risk involved in positioning ahead of events with significant price implications.

He added:

Other analysts have speculated that the SEC will likely approve the offering from ARK Invest and others in the next 10 days, based on meetings with representatives of exchanges and legal precedent. In October, the commission was forced to revisit a spot Bitcoin ETF application from Grayscale Investments after a judge ruled its decision to reject the offering was arbitrary and capricious.

I expect multiple approvals on Jan. 10, said James Murphy, founder of Ludlow Street Advisors, on X. The SEC shot all their bullets against Grayscale. The Court would very likely find the SECs new reason [for potential rejection] pretextual, reject it and I would think sanctions against the SEC lawyers could be in play.

Related: Spot Bitcoin ETFs could be rejected if the SEC wants more time Analyst

The SEC has never approved a spot BTC exchange-traded product for listing and trading on a U.S. exchange despite many applications from asset managers in previous years. In June 2023, BlackRock the worlds largest asset management company applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States, renewing interest in the investment vehicle and leading to speculation that the commission would need to act.

Thielen, also an analyst for crypto trading platform Matrixport, authored a Jan. 2 report claiming the SEC will reject a spot Bitcoin ETF. After thereport was disseminated across multiple social media platforms and news outlets, Matrixport founder Wu Jihan said on X that it was intended for the firms clients rather than the media.

Magazine: BlackRock meets with SEC over ETF, Binances new era begins and SBF loses release bid: Hodlers Digest, Nov. 1925

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'Likely rejection' or smooth sailing? Experts weigh in on potential spot Bitcoin ETF - Cointelegraph

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Visit our ETF Hub to find out more and to explore our in-depth data and comparison tools

Fidelity has found a basement for spot bitcoin ETF fees, pricing its proposed fund at less than half most other would-be registrants.

The firms Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund will charge 0.39 per cent, compared with 0.8 per cent proposed by Ark and 21Shares as well as Valkyrie, according to an updated registration statement posted last week.

Invescos trust formed with Galaxy Digital, meanwhile, has set its expense ratio at 0.59 per cent, though the fee will be waived for six months on the first $5bn in assets.

BlackRock, Bitwise and WisdomTree also filed updated registration statements on Friday, but without disclosing expense ratios.

This article was previously published by Ignites, a title owned by the FT Group.

The new filings also identify Jane Street as the go-to choice for authorised participant.

Fidelity and WisdomTree named the firm as their sole AP, while BlackRock will contract with Jane Street and JPMorgan Securities, Valkyrie with Jane Street and Cantor Fitzgerald and Invesco/Galaxy with JPMorgan Securities and Virtu.

Ark/21 Shares and Bitwise have not yet disclosed their APs. VanEck also filed an updated registration statement but disclosed neither fees nor AP.

Visit the ETF Hub to find out more and to explore our in-depth data and comparison tools helping you to understand everything from performance to ESG ratings

Bitwise appears to have secured the most in seed funding for its fund, disclosing that its unnamed AP has indicated an interest in allocating up to $200mn. The filing stipulates that there is no binding commitment for the investment.

BlackRock disclosed that an unnamed affiliate will invest $10mn in seed money for its ETF.

Reuters has reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission could notify applicants this week whether they have received approval to launch, and that the first rollouts could occur by January 10.

*Ignites is a news service published by FT Specialist for professionals working in the asset management industry. Trials and subscriptions are available at ignites.com.

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Fee war takes off in US spot bitcoin ETF applications - Financial Times

In a recent post on X, CryptoInsightUK, a prominent market analyst, pointed out a crucial trend for XRP holders to monitor closely on the XRP/BTC chart for the next XRP price upsurge.

CryptoInsightUK focused the attention of his latest analysis on the XRP chart against Bitcoin, where specific indicators have been instrumental in indicating a potential surge in XRPs price.

The analyst highlighted a grey zone on the weekly chart, which has signaled a bottom for the XRP/BTC pair. On the last two occasions when XRP entered this zone against BTC, and simultaneously, the weekly RSI hovered around the 33 value, it marked the bottom for the XRP/BTC pair.

The grey zone sits at the 0.00001384 price territory. Notably, XRP has slipped back into this area, which could be an indicator of a bottom against Bitcoin. The historical correlation has led the analyst to propose a potential 100% rise for XRP against BTC amid the recent slip.

However, CryptoInsightUKs analysis presents a cautious tone. The analyst acknowledges that while past instances have seen a significant rise, it is not an absolute signal. There have been instances where XRP observed more declines against BTC.

Data from the accompanying chart suggests that this occurred in 2017 and 2021. In these scenarios of further dips, once XRP found its bottom against Bitcoin, the asset engineered a massive price surge. It rallied to $3.31 in January 2018 and $1.96 in April 2021.

However, the analyst expressed doubt about a break below the area unless theres a substantial price surge in Bitcoin due to pivotal developments such as a potential approval of a spot ETF. This could lead to liquidity flooding the market. He urges investors to brace for impact if such an event occurs.

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Nonetheless, if such an upsurge in Bitcoins price does not occur, CryptoInsightUK expects altcoins to record massive price upticks in the near future, possibly accompanied by a positive move in XRP.

Despite this looming trend, the analyst emphasized the historical tendency of XRP to initially lag the broader crypto market, with a reminder that the crypto token typically moves last but at an accelerated pace.

He advised market participants to look out for signs of discontent and complaints among investors regarding XRPs price action, as it might be an indication that a significant move for XRP is approaching. Notably, XRP has witnessed a series of criticisms due to its recent underperformance.

The cryptocurrency currently trades for $0.5617 following a massive 9% drop in one hour today. Volatility has surged to its highest level in months, leading to $14.75 million in long liquidations, the highest intraday value in over four months, per data from Coinglass.

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Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basics opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

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Analyst Sees 100% Rise for XRP Against Bitcoin, Identifies Trend to Watch on XRP/BTC Chart - The Crypto Basic

As the Securities and Exchange Commission appears on the precipice of approving the first wave of Bitcoin ETFs, issuers are jockeying for an early advantage to attract investors.

In late December, two of the major issuersFidelity and Galaxy/Invescoreleased details on their fees, while a slew of issuers named authorized participants, setting the stage for a battle to gain crucial early-mover status.

The crypto industry has long looked at a spot Bitcoin ETF as a surefire vehicle to bring traditional investors, from retail traders to asset managers, into the volatile sector.

Since the Winklevoss twins first filed for approval in 2013, the SEC has rejected applications, citing the immature Bitcoin market and the potential for manipulation. After the crypto asset manager Grayscale won a critical court case against the agency in 2023, however, the SEC has signaled its intention to open the floodgates to the investment vehicle, which tracks the current price of Bitcoin.

There are currently 12 issuers vying for spot Bitcoin ETF approval, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton. In late December, Reuters reported that the SEC asked issuers to file their last revisions to their applications by the end of the year ahead of a launch date that could come as soon as Jan. 10the deadline for the SEC to approve or reject the first issuer in line, ARK/21Shares.

As issuers file updates to their applications, the details of how the ETFs will function has come into focus. For weeks, the predominant question has focused on the model of redemption that issuers will follow. ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, function with the help of institutional investors called authorized participants who can create or redeem individual shares in the fund as part of an arbitrage system that keeps the price of the ETF shares close to the value of the underlying asset. While most ETFs hold traditional stocks or bonds, which are simple for authorized participants to buy and sell, a Bitcoin ETF presents a more challenging model.

Rather than having authorized participants buy or receive Bitcoin directly from the issuerthe in-kind modelthe SEC pushed issuers to follow a cash model, which would put the onus of Bitcoin buying and selling on the issuer, reflecting the agencys reluctance to allow broker-dealers to handle Bitcoin.

In updated filings from Dec. 29, Fidelity, Galaxy/Invesco, WisdomTree, Valkyrie, and BlackRock all listed the first authorized participants that they will work with. Fidelity and WisdomTree both named Jane Street Capital, a secretive trading firm that previously employed FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. BlackRock and Galaxy/Invesco, a partnership between the crypto firm run by Mike Novogratz and the traditional investment management company, both named JPMorgan and Virtu, a market-making firm. Valkyrie named Jane Street and Cantor Fitzgerald.

More critically, two of the issuers released details on the fees that they will charge investors for the ETFa key element that could determine the most popular options in a crowded field. Invesco/Galaxy announced that it would waive fees for its first six months of operation and for the first $5 billion in assets held, followed by a 0.59% fee. Fidelity announced its fee would be 0.39%. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, predicted on X that BlackRock would set its fee at 0.47%.

As the crypto industry waits for the SECs final decision, the price of Bitcoin is rallying on an expectation of approval, soaring to nearly $46,000 on Tuesday morningits highest price since April 2022.

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Fidelity sets Bitcoin ETF fee at 0.39% ahead of expected SEC approvals - Fortune