The bitcoin and cryptocurrency market has lost a combined $170 billion since its year-to-date high set in June, with major tokens ethereum, Ripple's XRP, and litecoin all falling steeply.

The bitcoin price has almost halved, dropping from almost $14,000 to trade at around $7,600 today (though some heavyweight crypto investors remain upbeat).

However, one relatively minor cryptocurrency, chainlink, has more than doubled since June, jumping from around $1 to $2.55 after the company behind the token revealed a raft of partnerships and deals to use its technology.

After rallying hard earlier this year, the bitcoin price has been stuck on a downward trend for the ... [+] last few months, dragging the likes of ethereum, Ripple's XRP, and litecoin with it.

The chainlink token, which trades under the name link, began the year at $0.25, climbing to highs of around $4 per link token, before falling back along with the wider bitcoin and cryptocurrency market.

Chainlink is currently the 14th most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization, according to CoinMarketCap data, which counts bitcoin, ethereum, Ripple's XRP, bitcoin cash, and litecoin as the respective top five (excluding so-called stablecoin tether).

Chainlink, an ethereum token that powers the Chainlink decentralized oracle network allowing smart contracts on ethereum to connect to external data sources, APIs, and payment systems, has managed to stage a strong recovery since the late summer sell-off, breaking away from the wider bitcoin and crypto market, which has been falling steadily.

Some of chainlink's recent gains could be due to its efforts to expand into China just as China's president Xi Jinping has revealed the country will work to widely incorporate blockchain technology over coming years.

In April, the Chainlink organization hired a Chinese community manager.

Last month, Chainlink teamed up with Binance, the world's largest bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange by volume, to develop blockchain and smart contract-based so-called decentralized finance products, including lending, derivatives, and decentralized exchanges.

Back in June, the Chainlink organization began working with search giant Google and enterprise software company Oracle to help bridge their legacy payment systems and databases using blockchain technology.

Elsewhere, OpenLaw, which is developing decentralized peer-to-peer legal agreements, started working with the Chainlink organization in April on its smart legal contracts.

The chainlink price is up almost 700% over the last 12 months, compared to bitcoin's 75% rise over ... [+] the same period.

Some analysts have, meanwhile, been talking up chainlink's prospects.

"Id be lying if I said I havent been watching chainlink incredibly closely," Eric Thies, a popular bitcoin and cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, told crypto news outlet CCN.

"I noticed a similar structure to ethereums price behavior in 2016 or, dare I say, bitcoin between 2011 and 2012. I wouldnt be surprised to see link hovering around $10 and making it to the top 10 cryptocurrencies in CoinMarketCap by mid-2020."

Other crypto watchers have though warned chainlink investors that the token's bull run could be coming to an end.

"Anything can happen, [chainlink] often defies gravity," bitcoin and crypto trader Scott Melker said via Twitter alongside technical charts and analysis of the chainlink price. "But never bad to take profit if you have the chance."

Link:

As Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripples XRP, And Litecoin Lose Billions, This One Small Coin Has More Than Doubled - Forbes

For the last month, the price of bitcoin (BTC) has been on a major downtrend, having fallen from a peak of almost $10,000 in late October, down to its current value of $7,192. Earlier today, bitcoin touched as low as $6,630its lowest value since May 2019, but promptly recovered back to over $7,000 as trading volume picked up.

Despite losing almost 30% of its value in the past three months, and having fallen from a 2019-high of over $13,500 back in June, bitcoin has seen its trade volume grow considerably in the past several months. As of today, bitcoin is racking up approximately $50 billion in daily trade volumeits highest value in over a month and up more than 250% since August.

In commentary provided to Decrypt, eToro analyst Simon Peters claimed bitcoins recent crash to $6,600 was triggered by $100 million in liquidations on futures exchanges that occurred overnight. When the market dips, it can cause futures trades to be automatically sold, causing the price to fall futher down.

Peters suggested that this may have been in response to a familiar charting pattern: the death cross. This is when bitcoin's 50-day moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-day EMA

Now while it was reported that the death cross happened last month, that was using one type of measurement. Instead, looking at exponential moving averages, which Peters said tends "to be preferred in technical analysis as they give more weighting or importance to recent price data," the death cross actually happened in the last few days.

But, it could spell disaster for the price of bitcoin. Peters pointed out that, the past two times this has happened, bitcoin's price dropped by more than 60%. Will it break the norm or follow the same old pattern?

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Bitcoin breaks above $7,000 but it might not last - Yahoo Finance

Bitcoin and rivals Ethereum and Ripple have suffered their biggest declines in six months, wiping billions off the cryptocurrency market.

After surpassing the $13,000 (10,100) mark in June, bitcoin quickly ran out of steam and entered a state of decline, according to data on ranking site CoinMarketCap.

Prices briefly rose at the end of October, leaping from $7,500 (5,830) to $9,900 (7,700) in a matter of hours, but then began falling once again.

In the past week, bitcoin has sunk from a high of $8,680 (6,750) to around $7,130 (5,550) as of midday on Friday.

Bitcoins rivals have also suffered big declines in recent days.Ethereumsank from a high of $187 (145) on Sunday to todays price of $146 (113) per coin, while banking-focused coin Ripplehas slipped to $0.23 (0.18) from Sundays high of $0.27 (0.21).

A total of around $170bn (132bn) has been wiped from the market since June, following mass sell-offs across the three digital currencies, reportsForbes.

A fresh crackdown on illegal cryptocurrency exchanges in China may have triggered this weeks price drops.

Earlier this month, Chinese state-run newspaper Xinhua ran a front-page article hailing bitcoin as a success, after President Xi Jinping described plans to launch Chinas own digital currency as an important breakthrough, The Independent reports.

The superpower has taken a hard line towards cryptocurrencies and banned bitcoin in September 2017.

But Beijings change of tone seemed to fuel an increase in trading activity on illicit platforms, resulting in a fresh crackdown on illegal exchanges, says the news site.

The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) has warned that it will take decisive action against any illegal activity around virtual currency trading, while cautioning investors not to confuse bitcoin with blockchain - the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies.

Jamie Farquhar, a portfolio manager at London-based crypto investment firm NKB Group, told Reutersthat the PBOCs crackdown on illicit digital currency trading suggests that Chinas acceptance of the technology is unlikely to include bitcoin.

Its the realisation that the positivity over Xis blockchain announcement was exaggerated, he told the news site. It may not include bitcoin at this point.

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Bitcoin price: why the digital coin is suffering its biggest fall in six months - The Week UK

Dan Schulman, CEO of payment processor PayPal, revealed during an interview that he does indeed own Bitcoin (BTC).

On Nov. 20, Fortune reported that PayPal CEO Dan Schulman stopped by its offices where he discussed a variety of topics, including the reason for PayPals withdrawal from the Libra Association and whether he is the proud owner of any cryptocurrencies.

Schulman explained that PayPal withdrew from Libra because the company decided to put its attention elsewhere. According to the CEO it was a question of where do we want to put our attention, and what do we want to do today to advance our mission? He added:

You know, we think if we focus on our own roadmap, wed be able to advance financial inclusion faster than if we put all these resources against Libra.

Schulman added that Libra will start going down a road that his company remains very interested in looking at, and once Libra starts to figure things out, well take another look at where they are.

At the beginning of October, a PayPal spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the company had officially left the association, adding that they remain supportive of Libras aspirations and continue to look forward to dialogue on ways to work together in the future.

PayPals CFO John Rainey said in May that the firm has teams that are working on blockchain and cryptocurrency, and that they wish to participate in that technology in whatever form it takes in the future.

In the Fortune interview, Schulman was reluctant to share any significant details as to what exactly PayPal is working on in the sphere, although he was quick to point out that it is not necessarily competitive with Libra, adding:

We think theres a lot of promise to blockchain technology. Its intriguing to us, but it really needs to do something that the traditional rails cant do. Most people think that blockchain is about efficiency, but the system today is pretty efficient.

Regarding cryptocurrencies, the CEO said that it is still very volatile, and that they do not have much demand for it by merchants because merchants operate on very small margins. He said:

Until it becomes less volatile, it wont be a currency that is widely accepted by merchants on the web not the dark web, but the web.

As to whether he owns any cryptocurrencies himself, Schulmans answer was short and straightforward:

Yes, Bitcoin. [...] Only.

Excerpt from:

PayPal CEO Holds Bitcoin and Only Bitcoin - Cointelegraph

TheBitcoin price appears very close to reaching a bottom. A confluence of support areas suggests that the bottom will occur near $6000.

Even though yesterday the market experienced a rapid decrease, the current trading pattern and long-term support lines indicate that Bitcoin should be close to reaching a bottom.

Additionally, yesterdays decrease has not dissuaded investors to enter the market. On November 22, Bakkt reached a new all-time high at a volume of $13.4 million. This happened through the handling of 1863 Bitcoin contracts.

Therefore, if Bakkt is reaching such levels in a bearish market, the next bull run could bring extraordinary numbers.

As for when the bull market might begin, crypto trader and analyst @filbfilb tweeted the sole chart which he believes is the best one to predict the current market movement.

He is using a descending channel that shows the price bouncing on the support line.

Lets take a closer look at this channel and see where a reversal might occur.

Looking at the Bitcoin price movement, we can indeed see a descending channel in place since the June 24 high. Due to the presence of several wicks, the support and resistance lines could follow slightly different slopes.

Additionally, outlining a wave count we can see that the price is likely in the fifth and final wave of a 3-3-5 correction.

It is possible that the correction end near $6000, at the support line of this channel and previous support area.

The $6000 target also coincides with the long-term logarithmic support line in place since 2011.

There is a confluence of support from both the line and the channel right at $6000.

Looking closer at the movement, we can see that the price has found support above the 50-week moving average (MA).

While a decrease to $6000 would take the price below this MA, it would be right above the 200-week MA. We could see a scenario similar to that in January 2019 when the price bounced at the support line and the 200-week MA, which were at the exact same level.

Finally, the daily RSI gives us an interesting development.

First, it has reached oversold values. Every time it has done so previously, an upward move ensued.

Additionally, there is bullish divergence inside the oversold levels. The only time this happened was during the December 2018 low.

To conclude, the Bitcoin price is trading inside a descending channel. There are several strong support areas at $6000, making it a very likely place to initiate a reversal. This view is supported by the readings from the RSI and previous price history.

Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.

Images courtesy of Twitter, TradingView.

Did you know you can trade sign-up to trade Bitcoin and many leading altcoins with a multiplier of up to 100x on a safe and secure exchange with the lowest fees with only an email address? Well, now you do!Click here to get started on StormGain!

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Bitcoin Analyst Identifies $6000 as a Likely Bottom - BeInCrypto

During the previous week, the Bitcoin price decreased by roughly 20 percent. However, it initiated a bounce near $6600 on November 25 and has increased by 10 percent in less than 12 hours.

While there are is no surefire explanation about the rapid decrease, there are several hypotheses.

A self-proclaimed co-founder of Bitcoin stated that it was him that caused the crash, in order to retaliate to the negative reaction of the cryptocurrency community towards some of his claims. Ironically, this claim led to even more backlash giving rise to challenges that he must prove some of his statements, such as his ownership of more than 100,000 BTC.

Today, the Bitcoin price reached a low around $6600 and began a reversal which is still ongoing. Cryptocurrency trader and analyst @scottmelker stated that the Bitcoin price has printed a beautiful reversal candle with a very long lower wick. Additionally, he noted the presence of bullish divergence in the oversold area.

The Bitcoin price has been trading inside a descending channel since reaching a high on June 24.

It reached the support line on November 21 creating a long lower wick. The ensuing decrease caused it to fall to the support line once more on November 25.

Another increase ensued and the Bitcoin price is currently in the process of creating a bullish reversal candlestick.

Looking at lower time-frames, we can see a strong bullish divergence in the RSI.

Additionally, the Bitcoin price is in the process of creating a morning star pattern. A price close above the previous bearish candlesticks open at $7300 would likely confirm the reversal.

In the short-term, the main resistance areas are at $7400 and $7600. It is likely that the Bitcoin price retraces slightly once it reaches them.

However, a daily close above the second resistance area would confirm the previous pattern and the reversal scenario.

To conclude, after a long and rapid decrease, the Bitcoin price seems to have begun a reversal. While this trend is not yet confirmed, it occurred at a likely reversal area and is supported by technical indicators.

Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.

Images courtesy of Shutterstock, TradingView.

Did you know you can trade sign-up to trade Bitcoin and many leading altcoins with a multiplier of up to 100x on a safe and secure exchange with the lowest fees with only an email address? Well, now you do!Click here to get started on StormGain!

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Bitcoins Reversal Has Already Begun, Suggests Analyst - BeInCrypto

The current development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) is fundamentally flawed. Peter Thiel recently described crypto as libertarian and Reid Hoffman describes AI as authoritarian. This speaks to the concentration of power and control that has taken place in AI and ML. Cryptocurrency, as a technology, and Bitcoin in particular, empowers people to own their digital assets, the same way people can own real estate property and intellectual property. The data and information that is needed to fuel and power AI and ML is, however, only owned by a select few firms. They are the only ones who have a meaningful amount of data to truly make an impact and train their algorithms.

The ownership and sourcing of this data is a problem, one that I think crypto can provide a solution for.

The first of its two major problems is source material. AI is nothing without the database it draws on. Tencent, Alibaba, Megvii, Sensetime, Facebook, Apple: It doesnt matter which giant corporations tech youre talking about, they all rely on the input of users faces into a massive database in order to function.

This can lead to interesting dichotomies, such as in China. Sensetime and Megvii each provide facial recognition tech to the north and to the south, respectively. Unless people are using both firms technology, then each company will only have half of the possible dataset. Due to this limitation, AI becomes not only vertical in its intelligence, but also very regional, reinforcing the very divisions and borders that the internet and networks have been trying to break down.

Lets do a thought experiment. Say, one day, Google is able to get the database of every human being and is able to recognize the faces of every nationality and human being in the world, accurately and reliably. Does Google deserve to own that all-seeing AI? What about the people that contributed their faces as data, thus training that algorithm?

This highlights the second major problem with AI power.

All the power is centralized and controlled by a handful of tech companies. How and why do they have this power? It goes back to the first problem. Without data, and lots of it, your AI is nothing. That means only a few companies that currently exist have true power in AI.

Why should they have complete control and autonomy over users data without any input from the public who have contributed so much? Sure, its just your face for now but what about your medical data down the line? Its a slippery slope to complete control of your life.

In AI, more often than not, and especially in deep learning and machine learning, the technology and algorithms are not the differentiating factors. The differentiating factor is data and how the data set is training the neural nets. There are pockets of data that are highly protected such as our health data. This is the reason why, even today, Google Health has not really progressed, but it could just be a matter of time before the data floodgates are fully open.

In an ideal world, those who have contributed data to train that AI should own a piece of that algorithm and potentially the profits it generates, just as a shareholder who invests their capital can share in its gains. However, unlike purchasing shares in Facebook itself, where, realistically, you have no control or say over how your data is used, having a share in the algorithm itself and, therefore, becoming part of its governance, the user actually has a say in how its used.

Owning data and being able to monetize it is not a new idea, but the real urgency is making sure that the crowd owns a piece of the AI algorithms generated by the data so it has input and a level of control. Its not just about how people can profit from their data, but also how they can be part owners of an AI that redistributes the power structure itself.

Its about governance but its also about the asymmetry of power. It is about taking back control from the large tech firms who, at the moment, run the whole show.

In the future, I see the appearance of vertical data trusts where representatives will be elected to govern the use of different data types for certain uses. I see trusts, the way they are set up today, as the best avenue for these vertical data silos to be governed.

The goal, then, is clear: We need a system that allows us to share our data, profit from it, and crucially, have a say in how it is used. Is there precedent for this? Is there a network where nobody owns the system but anyone can participate in this open, decentralized, borderless, and censorship-resistant network under certain terms and conditions? That precedent does exist, and it has become a part of our daily vernacular: Its called Bitcoin.

Now that AI/data companies have become five of the top-10 companies in the world, those companies will just grow bigger and more powerful. Often behind these successful businesses are AI algorithms trained by data sets. Now that only a few companies own these data sets, it will eventually also be just a few companies that own the most powerful and strategic AIs.

Bitcoin allows for the crowd to co-own and govern a huge digital asset, i.e, bitcoin.

Bitcoin serves as a model for the crowd to share ownership and, importantly, control that ownership. If AI and ML facial recognition algorithms were the same as bitcoin, i.e., public blockchains, that would allow people to be part owners and operators of these powerful and valuable AIs by owning tokens.

How I see this working is quite simple. As a consumer or user, we already invest in the AI by contributing our data. Now imagine that data was a bitcoin token, and you can own it the same way as you own a bitcoin token. Then the profits that the AI produces can be paid to the users as tokens. What Bitcoin provides is the crowd ownership of something huge. Think of any AI system or ML system each being a bitcoin that can be borderless, censorship-resistant, neutral and open for anyone that contributes their own private data.

It is not simply about making money or profiteering from your own data; its about making sure that data is used responsibly and in line with a majority of the people who contributed.

You would own a piece of the AI software, not the company over it.

This would be a far cry from the lack of accountability in the large public companies who control this data today. Let us not forget that when Facebook was fined for mishandling its users data, the companys share price increased. Accountability among big tech is a pipe dream.

Bitcoin is the first instance where one can own and control a piece of a digital asset through private keys. Id like to see that happen with data, where people can govern that data and, ideally, get what they deserve for training an AI a seat at the table and a say in how its used. We need to turn these AI and ML algorithms into Bitcoin so that the crowd can own and get what they deserve for contributing control.

This would be an important step for us as a society as we continue to push back against the monopolies and oligarchies that big tech has fostered and allowed to fester over the years. As a society, we need to understand the value of our data, because we can be sure big tech does.

But what about the future? Its very clear that users will be able to sell their data to companies. However, that's not whats important and will not solve the fundamental issues. We need to ensure that when contributing data we have a say in how its used. We may still disagree with the outcome, but at least we have a voice.

Bitcoin, through the model of true ownership, can bring that: a voice to the individual thats as loud and clear as the biggest players in the room.

It may seem like a distant dream, but with the power and proliferation of Bitcoin, its a lot closer than you might think.

This is an op ed by Phil Chen. Views expressed are entirely his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Bitcoin Magazine or BTC Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Op Ed: Bitcoin Is the Key to Ethical AI - Nasdaq

The worlds dominant cryptocurrency appears to have lost all bullish steam. The momentum that the bitcoin price generated when it printed a 2019 high of $13,880 has vanished, giving way to a rapid downturn.

This week, the cryptocurrency crashed through support at $7,400. This triggered a technical reversal on the daily chart. As much as I hate to say it, the bitcoin hater, Peter Schiff, finally got it right.

A head-and-shoulders structure is one of the most reliable reversal patterns in technical analysis. Thus, from a technical perspective, bitcoin is now in a downtrend, and many expect that it would plummet to $6,000.

For instance, Clem Chambers, CEO of ADFN and Online Blockchain Plc, predicts that capitulation will strike at $6,000. He told CCN:

Bitcoin is entering a capitulation phase as you can more easily see when you remove the recent dump and bump from the chart.

Nevertheless, Peter Brandt says that bitcoin bulls will likely face an even worse scenario, at least in the short-term. The analyst predicts a move below $6,000, which would usher in an extended bear winter.

Even though bitcoins fundamentals have been making numerous advancements, Brandt says that a strong buy signal would only come once the Crypto Twitter bulls have all but disappeared. A thorough cleansing might be required to jumpstart a full-blown bull market.

Once the nightmare is over, Brandt expects that bitcoin would be ready to soar to $50,000.

If youre a bitcoin investor whos hoping for the halving to catalyze the next bull market, Ive got bad news for you.

Brandt sees the purge lasting until July 2020, two months after the May 2020 halving. At that point, the analyst expects bitcoin to be trading around $5,000 which is not far from todays price.

If youre accumulating bitcoin, can you see yourself holding the digital asset for another eight months while taking losses?

For most bitcoin holders, this is a dreadful scenario. Many will likely cut their losses and move on. Brandt banks on the pain of waiting rather than the pain of losses to wear out bulls.

Peter Brandts forecast agrees with PlanBs popular stock-to-flow model, which analyzes the bitcoin price according to available supply (stock) and new units entering circulation (flow).

A look at bitcoins stock-to-flow chart suggests that the top cryptocurrency will likely trade below $10,000 until the latter part of 2020. Consequently, investors who are looking for quick gains would be flushed out.

The good news is that this model also suggests those who HODL could be richly rewarded eventually.

Both the stock-to-flow model and Brandt predict that bitcoin would soar to all-time highs after the prolonged purge. Brandt sees the possibility of bitcoin trading at $50,000, while PlanBs model could see a parabolic BTC surge as high as $100,000.

But dont get too excited. Months of pain may lay ahead before you can even hope to enjoy significant gains.

Disclaimer: The above should not be considered trading advice from CCN. The writer owns bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

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Bitcoin Price Will Rip to $50,000 But Only After a Nauseating Purge - CCN Markets

Gambling business mogul and Bitcoin SV proponent Calvin Ayre has just opened a decadent new headquarters on the island of Antigua. Ayre describes the new building as being the home of Bitcoin SV in the Caribbean.

The Canadian entrepreneurs new global headquarters appears to have pleased Antigua and Barbudas government. Prime Minister Gaston Browne described it as the most impressive building on the island, hands down.

According to a report in the Antigua Observer, Calvin Ayre has just opened an extravagant new global headquarters. The five-storey building, called Canada Place, will be home for various pioneering technologies, the iGaming entrepreneur said at the buildings opening on Friday.

In a post to Twitter earlier today, Ayre stated that one of these pioneering technologies would be Bitcoin SV.

The new building is certainly impressive. It boasts a games room, employee lounges, a library, gym, and daycare centre. Calvin Ayre Group media relations representative Anika Potter claims the whole building can be run on solar energy alone. The employee car park roof houses a solar farm capable of transmitting 500 kilowatts.

This, and other environmentally-friendly touches throughout Canada Place, led Antigua and Barbudas Prime Minister to call it the the most impressive building on the island, hands down. At its opening on Friday, Gaston Browne also acknowledged Ayre as a true partner of Antigua.

Ayre described the building as a $40 million investment into the Antiguan economy. The Bitcoin SV proponent claims that the Calvin Ayre Group plans to employ greater numbers of locals throughout next year, with a hope to bring the total up to 600.

With regards the buildings purposely low environmental impact, he added:

[I] fully endorse the governments policy of seeking to transition from the use of fossil fuels to green energy. This magnificent complex is a symbol of this commitment to a pollution-free Antigua.

It comes as little surprise to see Ayre making the island of Antigua his business headquarters. After all, the nation has long offered very favourable legislation for online gambling companies and Ayre himself has had business interests there for many years. However, its less clear how Bitcoin SV fits into Canada Place.

Ayre himself describes it as the new home of Original #Bitcoin #BSV in that part of the world. However, its not immediately obvious why a supposedly decentralised asset would need a central hub of operations in any part of the world.

Related Reading: Ripple Completes $50 Million MoneyGram Investment, Supporting XRP Use for Global Payments

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Calvin Ayre Reveals New Bitcoin SV Headquarters in Carribbean - newsBTC

The markets still rise and fall with Bitcoin, and this latest cryptocurrency crash centered once again around China is no exception. While proponents of this store of value may remain hopeful as to an eventual price recovery, theres a few glaring concerns about Bitcoins fundamentals that may be lingering in the back of the minds of any investor honest enough to admit such.

Long ago, at the resolution of the block size wars, Bitcoin became locked into a hard 1MB block limit as the ultimate ceiling to its scaling potential. This was done under the general idea that on-chain scaling would be infeasible or would create too great of a compromise in the decentralization of the network. Years later the network remains at capacity, and much-vaunted solutions such as the Lightning Network stagnating. There still remains a significant degree of underlying uncertainty as to whether Bitcoin will ever scale as it is now.

The more troubling part is, what if the present price of Bitcoin reflects in some part belief that Lightning will indeed eventually become functional? What if it never effectively scales, and much of the price is made up of investors who believe that it will, but will give up at some point with no real progress made?

Particularly as a result of the above, the narrative behind Bitcoin shifted over time from utility as a payments system and decentralized money to utility as purely a store of value. This is now considered its primary use case, as an investment that will reliably increase in value long-term. Since then, weve seen some pretty epic price dumps over the past couple years, including the present cryptocurrency crash, drawing out the time needed for a buyer to barely break even on their investment, let alone watch it grow. While a spectacular price turnaround may be in the cards for the near future, the question remains: What if long-term value growth requires utility, and what if Bitcoins utility in storing value isnt sufficient to justify its price? Similar to the scaling question, much of the assets current pricing may be wrapped up in the idea that it is good at storing value regardless of whether or not it actually is. A shift in this belief without underlying fundamentals could be worrisome.

Finally, we go back to the go-to concern around Bitcoin: China. For many years in a row, the infamous headline China Bans Bitcoin has taken its momentary toll on market prices while the more educated among us rolled our eyes. No, China hasnt banned Bitcoin, and its a global fully-decentralized system that doesnt rely on one country anyway. Or so we keep telling ourselves. Yet year after year, headline after headline, the same thing keeps happening, without the diminished effect to be expected from a boy who cries wolf.

However, research has shown an overwhelming majority of infrastructure for the network may be based in China, and that an attack on major mining pools could threaten the entire network. What if the structure of Bitcoins security model has resulted in an inadvertent centralization of network power within an authoritarian jurisdiction with the power to seriously disrupt the network? What if the projects decentralization and censorship resistance have turned out to be quite different than what was previously believed?

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Bitcoin's Three Biggest Elephants in the Room - Dash News

By Adam Vaughan

Getty Images

Bitcoin mining consumed enough electricity last year to release carbon emissions on a par with Estonia, according to a study that suggests the climate change impact of the cryptocurrency isnt as bad as previously thought.

Past research has suggested that the emissions from mining bitcoin where computing power is used to solve mathematical problems to create new currency may be as high as 63 megatonnes of CO2 per year. Some researchers have even claimed the cryptocurrency alone could bust global climate goals.

Susanne Kohler and Massimo Pizzol at Aalborg University in Denmark found that earlier estimates had made blanket assumptions that carbon emissions from electricity generation were uniform across China, where they estimate just over half of all bitcoin mining takes place.

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But breaking down the emissions within China to a more regional level produced a much lower global footprint for the crytpocurrency, of 17.29 megatonnes of CO2 in 2018. While coal-heavy Inner Mongolia accounted for just 12.3 per cent of bitcoin mining, it resulted in more than a quarter of the total emissions. The reverse effect was seen in the hydropower-rich Chinese province of Sichuan.

The researchers also found that it is overwhelmingly the electricity use of bitcoin mining that contributes to the cryptocurrencys carbon emissions, not the production and disposal of the computers doing the mining, which accounted for just 1 per cent of the emissions.

Kohler says the findings dont mean we can stop worrying about bitcoin especially given electricity use per new bitcoin is growing but we should put it in perspective. On the one hand we have these alarmist voices saying we wont hit the Paris agreement because of bitcoin only. But on the other hand there are a lot of voices from the bitcoin community saying that most of the mining is done with green energy and that its not high impact, she says.

Getting a better handle on bitcoins carbon footprint will remain tricky until we have more accurate data on where mining takes place information which Kohler and Pizzol say is scarce today.

Camilo Mora at the University of Hawaii, who wasnt involved in the work, says the results show the need for more transparency on the location and equipment used in bitcoin mining. Even though the new estimate of the cryptocurrencys climate contribution is smaller, he says it is hard to believe the impacts from mining are trivial, given many countries, including China, are considering regulating the activity because of its large electricity consumption.

Journal reference: Environmental Science and Technology, DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.9b05687

More on these topics:

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Bitcoins climate change impact may be much smaller than we thought - New Scientist News

FRANKFURT, Germany--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MV Index Solutions (MVIS) in partnership with CryptoCompare, the global leader in digital asset data, today announced the launch of the MVIS CryptoCompare Institutional Bitcoin Index (ticker: MVIBTC), an index designed to measure the performance of a digital assets portfolio which invests in Bitcoin, priced on select exchanges.

The MVIS CryptoCompare Institutional Bitcoin Index is a robust and transparent benchmark for Bitcoin, which will be used by Canadian investment fund manager, 3iQ Corp., for the purpose of NAV calculation of The Bitcoin Fund.

We are pleased to launch this index with our partner CryptoCompare, said Thomas Kettner, Managing Director at MVIS. The index follows our long-term mission in supporting new product developments with the aim of providing investors access to bitcoin.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to the digital asset class by providing high quality, trusted data and indices. Together with our partner MVIS, we are excited to offer investors a reliable tool to better measure the performance of their Bitcoin exposure, said Charles Hayter, CEO and Co-Founder of CryptoCompare.

Key Index FeaturesFull Market Capitalisation (bn USD): 127. 61Number of Components: 1Base Date: 12/31/2013Base Value: 100

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About MV Index Solutions

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MVIS and CryptoCompare Launch the MVIS CryptoCompare Institutional Bitcoin Index - Business Wire

Just before the internet became a massive display of human ingenuity and networking, a few individuals anticipated the emergence of tools that would help progress the end of politics and the nation states. 22 years ago, much like Nostradamus, Isaac Newton, Gerald Celente, and Carl Jungs forecasts, a book called The Sovereign Individual predicted the growing autonomy of the individual but also noted the development of the worlds largest economy flourishing in cyberspace.

Also read: Bitcoin Is a Viable Way to Remove the State From Your Life

Since the inception of Satoshi Nakamotos Bitcoin, many people have come to believe that cryptographic technology is meant to progress freedom and liberty by separating money from the state. The concept is similar to when the church was separated from the state but when the power of the church dissipated, the nation states quickly took its place. Cryptocurrencies now provide the means to transact financially without a middleman and this removes the great wealth of power from the states arsenal. More than two decades ago, the cypherpunks started spreading the seeds of crypto-anarchy after envisioning that the internet would help remove the parasites that stem from governments.

Just as the technology of printing altered and reduced the power of medieval guilds and the social power structure, so too will cryptologic methods fundamentally alter the nature of corporations and of government interference in economic transactions, cypherpunk Timothy May wrote in 1988. Humans have always tried to predict the future and forecasting trends has been popular since medieval times. People predicted the world wars decades beforehand, global economies collapsing, and monumental events that have changed society a great deal years before they happened.

Most people know about the cypherpunks from Silicon Valley and the great crypto-anarchist manifestos that were published at this time. In addition to these new philosophers, in 1997 two well-known investment advisors and authors, James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg, published a book that also predicted a huge change coming to society over the next century. Within the book of forecasts, the two authors of The Sovereign Individual predicted the coming of cryptocurrencies and economic realignment. Rees-Mogg and Davidsons book does not specifically mention Bitcoin, because it was published 12 years prior to the cryptocurrencys inception. However, the predictions do note the coming existence of an uncontrollable cybercash and that with technology we will see the growing autonomy of the individual and taxing capacity will plunge by 50-70 percent.

[Society will] develop what promises to be the worlds largest economy by the second decade of the new millennium, The Sovereign Individual states. If we were to look at the invention of Bitcoin as being part of the Sovereign Individuals timeline, we can see that things are just getting started. The cryptoconomy, for instance, is a $200 billion dollar economy that is not backed by a sole individual or endorsed by a corporate entity. Governments do not support the electronic borderless money, and ever since it was created the nation states have met the technology with adversity.

The open web has allowed online economies to flourish and financial epicenters like New York and technological regions like Silicon Valley have no hierarchy over the internets borderless and faceless power. Governments feel threatened by these technologies and The Sovereign Individuals predictions suggest that the nation states will push back just like the church did. At the time, during its predominant institution, the church, saw its monopoly challenged and shattered authority that had been unquestioned for centuries was suddenly in dispute, Rees-Mogg and Davidsons book highlights. The Sovereign Individuals timeline predicts the next millennium will be very similar. With economic tools like cryptocurrencies and other forms of technological advances like autonomous software, drones, defense groups, meshnet technology, Tor, VPNs, and influencer/gig economies, society can begin to remove the bureaucracy from their everyday lives. Davidson and Rees-Moggs novel states:

We believe that change as dramatic as that of five hundred years ago will happen again. The Information Revolution will destroy the monopoly of power of the nation-state as surely as the Gunpowder Revolution destroyed the churchs monopoly Like the late-medieval church, the nation state at the end of the twentieth century is a deeply indebted institution that can no longer pay its way. Its operations are ever more irrelevant and even counterproductive to the prosperity of those who not long ago might have been its staunchest supporters.

Right now, many people believe we are entering the initial phase of change that books like The Sovereign Individual predicted decades ago. On page 160 of the book, the two authors stress that as commerce takes hold on the internet it will lead inevitably to cybermoney. This new form of money Rees-Mogg and Davidson explain will reset the odds, reducing the capacity of the worlds nation-states. Unique, anonymous, and verifiable, this money will accommodate the largest transactions. It will also be divisible into the tiniest fraction of value. It will be tradable at a keystroke in a multi-trillion-dollar wholesale market without borders.

It is interesting to watch the forecasts written years ago come to fruition and especially ones that are changing society for the better. The advent of Bitcoin and the economy behind the thousands of digital assets out there shows that a massive transformation is indeed happening right now. Past predictions from the cypherpunks and books like The Sovereign Individual may help us understand why. Moreover, failing economies and protests worldwide clearly indicate the demand for freedom is just getting started.

What do you think about how Bitcoin and other tools apply to the Sovereign Individual thesis? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Op-ed Disclaimer: This is an Op-ed article. The opinions expressed in this article are the authors own. Bitcoin.com is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy or quality within the Op-ed article. Readers should do their own due diligence before taking any actions related to the content. Bitcoin.com is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any information in this Op-ed article.

Image credits: Wiki Commons, Shutterstock, Pixabay, Fair Use, and Twitter.

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Jamie Redman is a financial tech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open source code, and decentralized applications. Redman has written thousands of articles for news.Bitcoin.com about the disruptive protocols emerging today.

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How Bitcoin Applies to The Sovereign Individual Thesis - Bitcoin News

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Bitcoin exchange hacks have plagued the cryptocurrency ecosystem since the first platforms for trading were launched in the early 2010s, and these events have caused major public relations issues for the entire crypto asset market. While exchange hacks dont have anything to do with potential technical problems related to the underlying Bitcoin network, its never a good look when millions or even billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin is stolen from thousands of exchange customers in a matter of minutes.

Although the Bitcoin exchange industry has improved its ability to deal with crypto asset security over the years, the threat of another large hack is always looming over the ecosystem. But that could soon change.

One of the main features of Bitcoin is that its programmable money, and developers have figured out new ways to build exchanges in ways that do not require users to turn over control of their funds until the exact moment they want to make a trade. One of the new exchanges that is taking advantage of this technology is Nash.

How Does Nash Secure Customer Funds?

In the past, exchange customers have always deposited their coins onto trading platforms with the exchange taking custody of the funds. That exchange platform then becomes a central point of focus for hackers because theres a big payday in it for them if theyre able to get into the exchanges internal wallet.

With platforms like Nash, users do not need to hand over custody of their crypto assets to a third party before they trade.

Many Bitcoin enthusiasts are excited about the Lightning Networks potential to cut transaction costs, speed up transactions, and potentially improve user privacy. And this same sort of technology can be used to vastly improve the level of security offered by exchanges.

Nash uses a system of state channel smart contracts to handle trades, and the system is currently live on the Ethereum and Neo blockchains. Notably, the Ethereum blockchain briefly surpassed Bitcoin in a key measurement of overall adoption last month. However, Ethereums ETH token is also down heavily against Bitcoin over the past couple of years.

According to Nash co-founder Fabio Canesin, Bitcoin support is expected to be added to their platform soon.

We initially demonstrated that our proposed architecture could deliver cross-chain markets that compete with the performance of centralized exchanges an extremely important parameter for liquidity, said Canesin when reached for comment. For this reason, we focused on the NEO-ETH market. Now that this is live and functioning well, we can move onto other networks. Bitcoin is the obvious next candidate owing to its importance in our industry.

State channels effectively allow multiple parties to transact with each other in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies without having to touch the blockchain. This works via a technical trick that involves two parties placing funds into a 2-of-2 multisig address and then creating valid transactions from that multisig address to each of their personal addresses as a way to update how much of the funds in the multisig address belong to each party. None of these generated transactions are actually broadcast to the blockchain. The only transactions that hit the blockchain are the ones at the end when each party is ready to leave the payment channel with the appropriate amount of funds (if this was too confusing try reading this longer explanation of the Lightning Network).

While decentralized exchanges have existed in the past, a key advantage of using state channels is they allow transfers to happen instantly, meaning users dont have to wait seconds or minutes for blockchain confirmations to execute their trades.

It should also be noted that, while customer funds cannot be stolen by hacking an exchanges internal wallet, hackers could still cause plenty of damage if they were able to push out a malicious software update to Nash customers. That said, this is still a huge security gain.

Updates require a signed payload using offline keys, said Canesin when asked about this potential issue. However, if a hacker did somehow manage to push a malicious update, users would also have to log in and sign a transaction before encountering an issue. The data in our software is not enough, since user-provided entropy is also required. We try to mitigate these risks by building several layers of protection.

The high level of security offered by Nash also relies on the integrity of the smart contracts backing the exchange, and vulnerabilities in advanced smart contracts have continued to pop up in 2019.

Other projects that are working on this type of non-custodial trading technology include SparkSwap, which is built on the Lightning Network, and Arwen, which has built its own plugin model for existing exchanges.

In addition to their trading platform, Nash is also working on a mobile wallet, browser extension, and payment processing service for merchants that will all be integrated with each other.

While even the developers behind Bitcoin admit the cryptocurrency is an experiment that could still fail, exchanges like Nash are another step in the right direction when it comes to improving both usability and security of this technology at the same time. This is also the sort of technology that makes it clear that it would be difficult for governments to implement a Bitcoin ban, as two members of the U.S. Congress recently admitted.

Note: This article was updated to point out the potential issues associated with complex smart contracts that are used as the basis for Nashs exchange and other similar platforms, as pointed out by Kraken CEO Jesse Powell on Twitter.

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This New Bitcoin And Cryptocurrency Exchange Cant Be Hacked - Forbes

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency startups made waves back in 2017 as investors piled into anything bitcoin, crypto or blockchain related.

Now, after the initial excitement has died down, it seems the explosion in successful bitcoin and cryptocurrency startups that some had anticipated has failed to materializewith just two bitcoin and crypto companies featuring on Y Combinators list of its top 100 companies by valuation.

The bitcoin price boom and subsequent bust meant that bitcoin and cryptocurrency startups quickly fell from grace among investors, with only a few, including Coinbase and SFOX, remaining popular.

Earlier this month, seed funder Y Combinator released a freshly updated list of companies it's invested in byvaluation, with the companies included boasting a cumulative value of $155 billion.

Online payments company Stripe, which was among six companies to abandon Facebook's libra cryptocurrency project this week, topped the list, followed by the hotel-disrupting Airbnb.

San Francisco-based bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase placed fifth on Y Combinator's list, while the only other bitcoin and cryptocurrency startup to feature was SFOX, a crypto prime dealer for institutional investors and professional traders.

On Y Combinators previous top 100 list, released this time last year, Coinbase and SFOX were then the only two bitcoin and cryptocurrency companiessuggesting the flow of successful new bitcoin and crypto companies coming onto the scene might have stalled.

The bitcoin price, which has fallen sharply from its all-time high of almost $20,000 per bitcoin at the peak of its epic 2017 bull run, has rebounded somewhat this year but not sufficiently to rekindle investor appetite for bitcoin and crypto startups, it seems.

"Over the past five years crypto markets have experienced many downturns," said Akbar Thobhani, chief executive of Silicon Valley-based SFOX.

"The market is still at a very early stage of adoption and many of the applications are still pre-product market fit. We will continue to see growth in crypto applications and many of these applications will be built on open platforms like bitcoin and ethereum."

The bitcoin price is up over double from where it began the year, though hasn't recovered enough to restore the confidence of investors.

Last month, Coinbase and Ripple, the payments group behind the XRP cryptocurrency, crashed out of a top 10 U.S. startups list for 2019each dropping over 20 places.

Meanwhile, investors, predominantly hedge funds, are pouring cash into crypto-linked investment trusts despite the bitcoin price downturn.

Grayscale Investments, which runs ten crypto-linked investment trusts, recorded inflows of $255 million last quarter, its best ever three-month period.

"There is an across-the-board sentiment that digital currencies is an asset class that is not going away," Michael Sonnenshein, managing director of Grayscale, told Business Insider.

While investors seem happy to bet on bitcoin, they have less confidence in startups promising to bring bitcoin and crypto innovation.

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Has Bitcoin Innovation Stalled? - Forbes

Bitcoin has been struggling recently after a period of stability, suddenly moving sharply lower at the end of last month.

The bitcoin price, which is still up more than double from where it began the year, fell from its recent plateau of around $10,000 per bitcoin to just above $8,000 in a move widely put down to the lackluster performance of the hotly-anticipated Bakkt bitcoin and cryptocurrency platform.

Now, new data has suggested the slump in the bitcoin price might be more to do with the "coming of age" of bitcoin and cryptocurrency marketswith exciting new competitors distracting investors from the long-time crypto poster-boy.

The bitcoin price has fallen around 30% from this year's highs, dropping from over $13,000 per bitcoin to under $8,000 earlier this month.

Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and financial markets research company Indexica has found that bitcoins strongest predictive measure was its "quotability," it was first reported by Bloomberg, a financial newswiremeaning traders are treating it like any other investment asset and showing bitcoin is most often being talked about in conjunction with more traditional currencies.

"Now that bitcoin is a big kid, anything can make it move, just like anything can make gold or a G-10 currency move, said Zak Selbert, chief executive of Indexica told Bloomberg, adding bitcoins sensitivity to new competitors such as Facebook's troubled libra project and Mastercards partnership with R3 demonstrates the industry's maturity.

"Bitcoin is part of the financial landscape in a very intertwined and mature way."

Many bitcoin and cryptocurrency watchers had hoped that bitcoin's reputation as "digital gold" would mean it began acting as a so-called safe haven asset, with investors buying into bitcoin at times of political and economic uncertainty.

This appeared to happen earlier this year, until the bitcoin price moved sharply lower as gold and the Japanese yen, two traditional safe havens, climbed.

The bitcoin price hit a year-to-date high earlier this year, thought to be due to the interest in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies from some of the world's biggest technology companies, but has since fallen back.

Meanwhile, some have suggested bitcoin's recent bounce back over $8,000 earlier this week was due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's plans to pump cash into the financial market to boost bank balance sheets and drive inflation.

"We know that [Fed easing] has historically helped bitcoin," Joe DiPasquale, chief executive of the bitcoin and cryptocurrency investment firm BitBull Capital, told bitcoin industry news siteCoindesk.

Read more:

Is This The Real Reason Behind Bitcoins Latest Sell-Off? - Forbes

Bitcoin and ethereum, the two biggest cryptocurrencies by market value, suddenly soared yesterday despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting the latest attempt at creating a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

The bitcoin price is up some 5% over the last 24-hour trading period, while ethereum has risen almost 6%, both adding to gains earlier in the week.

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency market has swung wildly over the last few weeks as traders and investors seek direction.

"The news that the SEC is not going to approve a bitcoin ETF has not impacted the market with bitcoin heading higher again," Marcus Swanepoel, chief executive of London-based bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Luno, wrote in a note this morning.

"Overall, global markets are also up and we are seeing some positive sentiment."

Bitcoin's bounce was attributed to the U.S. Federal Reserve's plans to pump cash into the financial market to boost bank balance sheets and drive inflation.

"We know that [Fed easing] has historically helped bitcoin," Joe DiPasquale, chief executive of the bitcoin and cryptocurrency investment firm BitBull Capital, told bitcoin industry news site Coindesk.

The SEC yesterday ruled the Bitwise Asset Management ETF proposal, filed with the NYSE Arca stock exchange, did not meet legal requirements to prevent market manipulation or other illicit activities.

"Because, among other things, [Bitwise and NYSE Arca] has asserted that 95% of the bitcoin spot market consists of fake and non-economic activity, but has not established that it has, in fact, identified the 'real' bitcoin market, or that the 'real' bitcoin market is isolated from the fraudulent and manipulative activity, we find, in each case, that NYSE Arca has not met its burden to demonstrate that its proposal is consistent with the requirements ... and therefore the Commission disapproves this proposed rule change," the SEC said.

The SEC has so far rejected all bitcoin ETF proposals due to concerns around fraud and market manipulation, with the regulator knocking back the closely-watched VanEck bitcoin ETF application last month.

Bitcoin speculators have long hoped a U.S. bitcoin ETF will mean traders and investors are more easily able to buy into volatile crypto markets without having to navigate clunky bitcoin exchanges.

The bitcoin price jumped sharply yesterday, adding some $400 per bitcoin in a matter of minutes.

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies were sent sharply lower last month after the hotly-anticipated Bakkt bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading platform went live with underwhelming volumes.

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Bitcoin And Ethereum Suddenly Soar Despite SEC Blow - Forbes

Bitcoin's massive price increase of the last few yearsthe price is still up over 10-fold since early 2017 despite last year's sell-offhas caused hackers and criminals to target bitcoin holders.

Wild swings in the bitcoin price, which remains highly volatile, have failed to put off hackers, who are betting bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies will hold at least some of their value.

Now, researchers have warned a previously-known strain of malware, dubbed "Save Yourself," was not only designed to try to extort victimsbut can also potentially compromise bitcoin wallets and mine other cryptocurrencies.

Criminals have been keen to get their hands of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies due to their relatively anonymous nature.

Those targeted by the malware, which claims the victim's computer has been hacked when it has not, receive an email claiming to have recorded pornography viewing on the device and threatening to release the recordings unless a ransom is paid in bitcoina practice known as "sextortion."

"The malware is responsible for sending a large number of spam emails part of a sextortion campaign, where the goal is to trick the recipient into believing their computer has been infected and that their porn-browsing details will be published unless they pay an extortion fee," cyber security researchers from Reason Security wrote in a blog post.

"The malware uses the computer as a proxy station to send blackmail emails to users, and uses the CPU for monero mining. To maintain a low profile, the malware will use only 50% of the CPU's capability ... [and] can also read clipboard data and replace bitcoin wallet addresses with its own address."

Researchers warned that devices infected with the email-sending malware are able to "reach more than 100,000 users in a very short time thanks to the malware's spreading capability."

The scammers also have been found to include sensitive information, such as email passwords, in the bitcoin sextortion emails, thought to have been gathered from large-scale data breaches.

Bitcoin's epic bull run, which saw the price rise from under $1,000 per bitcoin to almost $20,000 in under 12 months, meant that criminals began targetting crypto holders.

Meanwhile, cyber security experts have also warned that criminals are switching from bitcoin to litecoin, a rival cryptocurrency, in order to avoid spam filter detection.

"As this latest twist shows, threat actors can switch to the next cryptocurrency and attempt to iterate through all the scams previous versions," phishing analysts Cofense wrote.

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Bitcoin Sextortion Malware Is Even Worse Than Thought - Forbes

Since dropping from its 2019 high at $13,800, Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a rut which has led to the price retracing roughly 43% to $7,800. Traders would take a more conservative approach and describe the last two months of price action as consolidation which is typical after parabolic advances. With the 2020 Bitcoin halving event approaching, the ultimate question on the minds of most investors revolves around whether or not Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high on the heels of the event and more importantly, when.

While every trader has his or her own style, most keep a vigilant eye on Bitcoin charts and attempt to exploit every long and short opportunity that Bitcoins market cycles provide. This practice can be time-consuming, tiresome and inefficient based on ones proficiency at trading and the ability to weather the manipulative fiascos that frequently rock the crypto market.

As the crypto market matures, new technical analysis methods are being developed and traders are also beginning to pay more attention to the on-chain data produced by blockchains. To dig deeper into this topic, Cointelegraph spoke with equities and crypto-market analyst Philip Swift. Swift is also the creator of the Golden Ratio Tool and the Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier.

Cointelegraph: Philip, thanks for taking the time to sit down to have a chat about crypto trading and technical analysis. What brought you to crypto?

Philip Swift: My route into crypto was less exciting than buying drugs on Silk Road, unfortunately! In 2016 I was looking to invest some profits from real estate investing. Traditional market investment opportunities looked awful as they were offering poor returns for reasonable amounts of risk. I also felt uncomfortable with the inevitable handing over of fees to some broker or money manager who probably wasnt great at their job.

I then came across Bitcoin and saw it had a much more appealing risk/reward opportunity. As I learned more about it, I could see the benefits from a social perspective too, which I thought was really interesting. So I fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole.

CT: Why is it important to view Bitcoins price action on a logarithmic scale? Should this always be done in your opinion?

PS: There is real value in viewing Bitcoins price action on a logarithmic scale because it allows you to see two things. First, you can see the adoption curve of Bitcoin over its 10-year history as more and more people begin to use it.

Second, you can see that contrary to the popular belief that Bitcoin has only had a recent price explosion that was a bubble, Bitcoin has actually gone through three full market cycles in its 10-year history. This context is useful for helping us forecast potential price action and also for managing emotions as we enter into the next market cycle.

I definitely dont think a logarithmic scale should always be used. Thinking in absolutes is very dangerous, particularly when it comes to trading and investing. There are times where a standard scale is very useful, particularly when trading small time frames in certain market conditions.

CT: Given the unique insight on-chain data provides, do you think traders' reliance on the investing strategies and tools used for traditional financial markets is a misapplication? Why should traders focus more on on-chain data?

PS: I think of all these different approaches like tools in my toolbox. If I want to build something brilliant, I need to have a range of tools to achieve that.

I find it strange in the world of Crypto Twitter that there are people who say they only use technical analysis (TA) or only use on-chain analysis. Why would you limit yourself when clearly these different schools of thought all have value when they are applied correctly? So I use a combination of TA, on-chain metrics, and market cycle analysis. This process has consistently worked very well for me over time.

My sense is that there are people in the space who have either learned from experts used to operating in traditional markets like the Forex or they aspire to be the traditional type traders having watched some TV shows and movies. For these reasons, they think that Bitcoin should also be measured using traditional tools from these traditional markets.

This is way off the mark in my opinion as Bitcoin has characteristics that are very different from other asset classes, and more importantly, it is not yet an established asset class. It is going through a period of adoption. This makes it function differently to macro asset classes and established currency markets.

CT: How would you interpret the current Market Value Realized Value Z-score (MVRV-Z score) and could you explain this to a simpleton such as myself?

PS: The current MVRV Z-score is at levels we would expect at this point in the market cycle. In my opinion, there is still plenty of upside to go before we reach the cycle high.

MVRV Z-score highlights periods where the price of Bitcoin is extremely over or under-valued relative to its historical fair value. The indicator has been able to pick Bitcoins major cycle highs to within two weeks!

When it enters the upper red band on the chart, this indicates that price is overvalued and most likely needs to have a major pullback on big timeframes - otherwise known as entering a bear market.

CT: Your Bitcoin Golden Ratio indicator suggests that:

If this decreasing Fibonacci sequence pattern continues to play out as it has done over the course of the past 9 years, then the next market cycle high will be when the price is in the area of the 350DMA x3.

According to your indicator, this is around $19,971. Some traders say a bull market does not officially start until an asset breaks through the previous all-time high. At this price, your indicator would be showing overstretched conditions so barring a massive blow-off top, what can one forecast past the 350DMA x 3?

PS: Like any moving average, the Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average lines move with Bitcoins price. So as price increases, so do they. Therefore, by the time the price gets to the $20,000 area, the 350DMA x 3 will be much higher. In effect, the price will be trying to catch up with the 350DMA x 3, and it is unlikely to do that until they are both well above $70,000 this cycle in my opinion.

CT: Whats the likelihood that Bitcoin simply consolidates between $8,500 - $10,000 and $10,000 - $11,500 until the next halving event? How does on-chain data support this narrative?

PS: Unlikely. The halving is still 7 months away and we are seeing a lot of accumulation happening on-chain.

I do believe this upcoming halving event will create significant buying demand for Bitcoin. Markets are not efficient, and we are not rational players. I think the halving event hype coupled with global macro issues we are seeing play out as we head towards it will create hype for Bitcoin that will push the price up as people FOMO in.

CT: In your most recent tweet, you said that you believe that Bitcoin is currently in phase A of the Puell Multiple. Is this a multi-year measurement/cycle?

Puell Multiple Chart. Source: Lookintobitcoin.com

PS: Yes it is. I was highlighting how, just like the previous two major Bitcoin cycles, we have entered a period where the Puell Multiple became over-extended and had a sharp dropdown. Both of those periods were then followed by Bitcoin price action going sideways for 6-8 weeks. I am not saying that has to happen now, but it is certainly noteworthy.

CT: What else do you want to tell me? Are there any additional hot topics, statements or opinions of importance that you think the world should know?

PS: In the world of Bitcoin there seem to be two main groups of people. Hodlers and traders. HODLers think you should hold forever and constantly dollar cost average in. Traders try to grow their Bitcoin stack using leverage.

Both of these approaches have issues. HODLers have to endure multi-month bear markets with 80%+ drawdowns on their holdings. So its quite inefficient and actually poor from a risk management perspective. The vast majority of traders (over 90%) lose money in the long run so that approach is not ideal either..

I believe that there is a smarter approach for most people. Strategic investing, which requires just a basic understanding of Bitcoins market cycles and its economics. This can help you avoid buying towards the top and selling towards the bottom of Bitcoins cycles.

Over the course of Bitcoins history, people who have used this approach have significantly outperformed all HODLers and the vast majority of traders.

Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier. Source: Lookintobitcoin.com

Here is a really simple chart from my site that brings this to life. If you bought Bitcoin whenever the price was under the green moving average and then gradually sold out in the red zones above the red moving average, then you would have achieved outsized returns relative to most other Bitcoin investors and traders.

CT: What is your approach to crypto investing? Intraday trading, swing trading, BTC accumulation, Fiat accumulation?

PS: I swing trade crypto and also make long term investments in Bitcoin. I dont want to spend my days stuck in front of the computer screen staring at 15-minute charts so I choose to swing trade on multi-week time frames which suits my trading style.

CT: What is the ultimate purpose of Look Into Bitcoin?

PS: I want it to help regular people (not just large institutions) invest better in Bitcoin, as I believe Bitcoin is a once in a generation opportunity that is leveling the financial playing field.

By providing free-market cycle and on-chain valuation tools for regular Bitcoin investors, it helps them see more clearly and think differently about Bitcoin prices, and ultimately supports their Bitcoin investing.

Original post:

Yes, Even Bitcoin HODLers Can Lose Money in the Long-Term: Heres How - Cointelegraph

Number one spot cryptocurrency exchange Binance has seen its futures trading business rocket as of late, with 24-hour trading volume hitting a high of $820m on 15 October. Trading volume has since settled to around $700 millionthe same level that occurs on Binances highly successful spot trading exchange.

Since the launch of Binance futures bitcoin derivatives market in September, 24-hour trading volume had mostly settled in the $250-$500 million range. However, since the futures exchange hit a recent volume low of $300 million on 13 October, daily trading volumes have more than doubled in the last 3 days to hit a high of over $800 million.

Futures trading is classified as a type of derivatives market. Unlike spot marketswhere the settlement happens immediatelyin futures trading, the market only needs to be settled dependent on the specific markets settlement date. This settlement delay means that high leverage is commonplace for futures trading exchanges.

At the moment Binance Futures offers traders up to 20x leverage, with rivals such as BitMEX offering up to 100x. Spot markets most often have no or very low leverage. The pick up in Binance futures trading could indicate that crypto-traders are increasingly interested in speculating (with high leverage) in cryptocurrency investments.

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Interestingly, Binances other futures market, Binance JEX, is faring less well. The sister venture, which started trading five days after Binance Futures, splits its US-dollar denominated trading pairs between Bitcoin (52%), Ethereum (20%) and EOS (28%). Binance JEX also kicked off trading with around $300 million worth of 24-hour volume, but has seen a steady decline in interest, with daily volumes currently at $160 million, and seemingly trending lower.

According to data from CoinGecko, Binance Futures currently ranks at fifth place in the overall crypto futures trading market, in terms of its daily trading volumes. Ahead of Binance is Bybit ($710 million) and the three futures heavyweights of Huobi ($1.6 billion), BitMEX ($2 billion) and finally OKEx ($2.8 billion).

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Binance Futures Bitcoin trading volumes hit a record high - Decrypt