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The past few weeks have seen drastic rises in Covid-19 cases in many states. This is due in part to indoor establishments and restaurants reopening, in part to multiple indoor and outdoor events, including rallies, marches and protests, and in large part due to larger and larger of groups of families and friends congregating. The mask-wearing debate has become politicized, representing a symbol of liberalism or conservatism, instead of a sign of health and safety. Over the past four months, where various states and multiple countries have seen surges and declines, the islands of the Caribbean have, for the most part, dodged the coronavirus bullet.

As I discussed in a Forbes article which focused on Covid-19 in the Caribbean, many of the islands had remained closed to tourists, keeping these beach-speckled gems sequestered from the massive surges we were seeing in such cities as New York and Houston, and in such countries as Italy and Brazil. Cruise ships will not be headed to the Caribbean ports anytime soon, as the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has issued a No Sail Order through at least September 30, 2020. This order applies to any passenger ship carrying 250 passengers or more traveling in waters of U.S. jurisdiction. The average commercial cruise ship carries 3,000 passengers, and some can hold up to 6,000.

Cruise ship filled with passengers

Flights, however, have been a different story. While islands have issued varied ranges of requirements before landing and heading to that beach house or hotel, many of these requirements came about several weeks after the spike in cases in Florida, Texas, and Arizona were already in full swing. Some islands require proof of a negative Covid-19 antigen test (indicating no active infection) or a positive Covid-19 antibody test (indicating prior infection and subsequent recovery), some require symptom checking, and some, as has been the case for the islands of Hawaii, have required 14 day quarantine on arrival. As of July 15, 2020, visitors to the U.S. Virgin Islands from Florida, Texas, and Arizona will require a negative Covid-19 test no more than 72 hours prior to arrival, or will be required to quarantine for 14 days after arrival on the islands.

Despite these restrictions, coronavirus infections are piercing the islands. According to the Virgin Islands Department of Health, as of July 22, 2020, there have been a total of 336 cases of Covid-19. The overall positive test rate has been just over 2%, with over 15,000 antigen tests (looking for active infection) performed since March 2020. While the percent positive rate remains low, and the total case rate is also quite low (the population of the U.S. Virgin Islands, which includes St. Thomas, St. Croix, and St. John is just over 100,000), the relative rise in case numbers has been precipitous. The majority of the rise in cases has been in St. Croix (STX), followed by St. Thomas (STT) and St. John (STJ).

Covid-19 Cases in the U.S. Virgin Islands (St. Croix, STX; St. Thomas, STT; St. John, STJ)

St. Croix has seen the largest relative surge in cases, which has been directly related to incoming contractors from the mainland to work at the Limetree Bay oil refinery. In one week, 21 cases of Covid-19 were reported from the oil refinery alone. A restriction has now been placed on no longer accepting newly contracted workers, and those who are currently residing at the refinery living areas are being asked to remain at the facilitys residences until further notice.

U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Croix, oil refinery.

The relative rise in cases in the U.S. Virgin Islands surpasses the rises in the U.S. mainlands current hotspots such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and California. To make the data sound even more significant, the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. Virgin Islands has increased by over 3500% in one month, compared to the rise in Florida (543%), Texas (329%), Arizona (299%), or California (143%).

But this is where, as many of us are now seeing, dramatic graphs, numbers, or percents can be a bit skewed. Yes, in early June, there were just 70 confirmed cases on the islands, and just seven weeks later there have been close to 350 in total. But thankfully both the absolute number of coronavirus infections in the Virgin Islands remains low (over half of these 350 individuals have recovered), as does the overall populations infection rate. Approximately 1 in 500 individuals (0.2%) in the U.S. Virgin Islands have Covid-19. By comparison, in Los Angeles County, approximately 1.5 in 100 (1.5%) individuals have an active Covid-19 infection.

Doctors with protection suits attending a patient infected with a virus

As has been the case in many cities across the world, the U.S. Virgin Islands have issued safety ordinances including mask wearing, minimizing public gatherings, closing or limiting indoor public spaces, and closing off public outdoor spaces when necessary. While they are currently in their Stage 4 of a five stage re-opening plan, Governor Albert Bryan has stated that dialing down re-opening may be necessary if cases continue to rise. As for the explanation in case rise outside of St. Croixs oil refinery, the most likely sources are tourists visiting from outside of the islands, but more substantially from Virgin Islanders returning home after a trip to the states. Given whats going on in many of the states on the mainland, who wouldnt want to return home to paradise?

Man walking up the historic 99 steps in Charlotte Amalie, St Thomas in the US Virgin Island.

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Excerpt from:

Trouble In Paradise: Covid-19 Is Spiking In The Caribbean - Forbes