Another day, another round of all-time highs?
The Federal Reserve and earnings-season winner Facebook easily could help deliver a trifecta of record closes like we had yesterday.
Bulls apparently have scented a softening in the Feds stance on inflation, as they keep sniffing at the somewhat dovish handout from Janet Yellen & Co.
But billionaire investor Howard Marks smells something rotten, going by his latest cautionary memo and that provides our call of the day.
The Oaktree Capital co-chairman gives plenty of reasons to worry about markets right now. Some examples: the recent exuberance over cryptocurrencies, the cheering for FAANG stocks, and the warm embrace of passive investing (index funds and ETFs).
They show the temperature of todays market to be elevated. Not a nonsensical bubble just high and therefore risky, he writes.
Regarding bitcoin BTCUSD, +5.64% and its cryptocurrency rivals, Marks says theyre not real and perhaps even a pyramid scheme.
Read: This is what it will take for bitcoin to become a legit currency
Here, in Markss own words, are the red flags he lists near the end of his 23-page memo:
Some of the highest equity valuations in history.
The so-called complacency index at an all-time high.
The elevation of a cant-lose group of stocks. [the FAANG names]
The movement of more than a trillion dollars into value-agnostic investing. [indexing]
The lowest yields in history on low-rated bonds and loans.
Yields on emerging market debt that are lower still.
The most fundraising in history for private equity.
The biggest fund of all time raised for levered tech investing. [Softbanks fund]
Billions in digital currencies whose value has multiplied dramatically.
So what to do now? Many market participants dont have the option to not invest, Marks notes. Oaktree will continue to follow its move forward, but with caution mantra, he writes.
His full lengthy memo (Ive cut what I could, Marks says) is available here and worth a read.
Futures for the Dow YMU7, +0.46% , S&P 500 ESU7, -0.04% and Nasdaq-100 NQU7, -0.68% are higher, after the Dow DJIA, +0.39% , S&P SPX, -0.10% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.63% each achieved an all-time closing high yesterday.
The dollar DXY, +0.55% is adding to yesterdays loss, and analysts are blaming the fall on the Fed swtiching its language on inflation to running below its target from running somewhat below.
Gold GCQ7, +0.73% is capitalizing on the dollars drop, while oil CLU7, +0.86% has been choppy, but staying up big for the week. Europe SXXP, -0.11% is mixed, after Asia closed with gains.
See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is touching a fresh 13-month low this morning, stretching its year-to-date decline to 8.5%.
An ETF that tracks the buck the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP, +0.37% is showing a similar 2017 drop. And its the only currency ETF in the red for the year in the chart above from Charlie Bilello, the Pension Partners chart slinger.
Read more: Stocks are ignoring U.S. political uncertainty, but the dollar isnt
And see: U.S. stocks could get a powerful tailwind from the weaker dollar
$500 billion Facebooks FB, +2.92% market value might hit that milestone if this mornings earnings-fueled premarket gain holds.
On Wednesday, Amazon AMZN, -0.65% joined the $500 billion club, a select group that includes Apple AAPL, -1.89% ,Google parent company Alphabet GOOG, -1.45% GOOGL, -1.33% and Microsoft MSFT, -1.20% .
See: Facebook keeps warning about growth, but growth doesnt stop
Some big institutional investors look set to steer clear of Snapchat parent Snap SNAP, +4.48% after FTSE Russell announced a key decision on its indexes. The index provider plans to exclude companies that basically dont give public shareholders a voice.
Amazons secret skunkworks lab called 1492 is looking into electronic medical records and other opportunities in health care, says a CNBC report.
Too hot for a slice? Nestle NESN, -0.97% says warm summer temperatures have weakened spending on pizza and other products.
AstraZeneca AZN, -14.91% AZN, -15.41% is on track for a big down day after a closely watched clinical trial failed.
In five years time, scandal-hit Libor should be no more.
Earnings season remains in full swing. Companies on the docket before the open include Comcast CMCSA, +0.20% , Twitter TWTR, -14.13% , Verizon VZ, +7.68% , Southwest LUV, -4.96% , Dow Chemical DOW, +0.21% , P&G PG, +1.55% , UPS UPS, -4.01% and Mastercard MA, -1.57% .
Amazon, Starbucks SBUX, +2.69% and Intel INTC, +0.63% are among the names due to report after the close.
In terms of economic data, reports on jobless claims and durable goods are on tap before the open.
Check out: MarketWatchs Economic Calendar
Ive been saying for months we should start with what we agree on, and try to build up. The previous strategy was to start big and try to have the whole kitchen sink in there. Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.) is among those signaling support for a skinny repeal of Obamacare.
Read: GOP senators win further support for skinny repeal of Obamacare
And see: Heftier bill to repeal Obamacare fails in Senate
A ride broke apart at Ohios state fair, killing one person and injuring seven others.
The things each state really dislikes are random. For N.D., its tapas.
Swedens government is in trouble over its handling of a huge data breach.
Brits are having fun writing captions for new photos of their MPs.
Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.
Or Follow MarketWatch on Twitter or Facebook.
And sign up here to get the Friday email highlighting 10 of the best MarketWatch articles of the week.
More:
Bitcoin isn't real, and markets are darn hot, warns Howard Marks - MarketWatch
- Google removes malware Android apps used to secretly mine bitcoin [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin exchange MtGox liquidated [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Wannabe Litecoin Emerges as Low-Price Challenger [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- The Worlds First Bitcoin Debit Card Is Almost Here [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- How does Bitcoin work? - Bitcoin - Open source P2P money [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Group #27 - China Bans Bitcoin Again - Politics - Dark Market - Bitcoin VC - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Edan Yago - Free Market Bitcoin regulation and Honduras free trade zones.mp4 - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin vs. Political Power: The Cryptocurrency Revolution - Stefan Molyneux at TNW Conference - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Video: Roundup of This Week's Bitcoin News 25th April 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Fredagsbar med Torben Mark Pedersen - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin and the Internet of Money - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin for Dummies - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Bitcoin runner-up Litecoin emerges as low-price challenger [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Bitcoin or Gold? Squawk Walk Taipei- Squawkonomics - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Miner AntMiner S1 180 - 200 GH/s Nu in de Aanbieding! - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- New Bitcoin Documentary: Boom or Bust - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Bitcoin May v0.9.1 GitHub Source Code Development Visualization - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Atomic-Trade Bitcoin Exchange. AML, BSA, FinCEN compliant - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- China Bans Bitcoin Again -- Bitcoin the Movie -- Startup for Startups Raises 2,000 BTC - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- 4/24/14 - Xapo Debit Card, Russia's 1st Bitcoin Conference, Silk Road 2.0 - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- What is Bitcoin? - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- David Andolfatto, How Does Bitcoin Work? - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Australian Bitcoin traders hit by crash [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Bitcoin traders hit by Mt.Gox crash [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Market Extra: Bitcoin venture capital money hasnt kept up with buzz [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Bitcoin price slips as China steps up regulation [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Bitcoin price slips on China regulation [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Win .33 Bitcoin ($150 or so, Depending on BTC value) - Meme game for May 1st - Take My Bitcoins - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Ron Paul on Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- btc.sx Bitcoin derivatives platform George Samman clip - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- 'The Rise And Rise Of Bitcoin' Filmmaker: 'There Is No Answer Yet' [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- Bitcoin the movie: It just had to happen [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Vies with New Cryptocurrencies as Coin of the Cyber Realm [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Meetup - BitcoinMKE Hosts Jeffrey Tucker - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- MIT Bitcoin Expo 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Expo 2014: Fireside Chat with Dr Gavin Wood - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- Rise Bitcoin Singapore - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- Preview: Bitcoin Authenticator - 2FA for wallets - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Group #27 (Live) - China Bans Bitcoin Again - Politics - Dark Market - Bitcoin VC - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- 4/25/14 - More China uncertainty, Missourian bitcoin warning, BadLepricon malware - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- Money & Tech at The Rise And Rise Of Bitcoin Afterparty - Video [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2014]
- New Bitcoin student club at MIT will promote the virtual currency [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- 4/29/14 - MIT Bitcoin Project, Mt Gox revival plan, Mastercard lobbyists & Team Rubicon - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- BitCoin Dentist GoCoin Fox News Interview - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Foundation Election Hiccups -- Pathetic Ohio Bans Bitcoins -- Dogecon SF 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Slips to $420 as BTC China Halts Transactions - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- MultiSig Plus BitCoin Multi Coin Wallet looks like HUGE INVESTMENT potential! - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- Bitcoin: what happens when the miners pack up their gear? [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Dark Wallet Is About to Make Bitcoin Money Laundering Easier Than Ever [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin Talk Show #7 -- Skype BitcoinTalkShow to Call in Live! 🙂 - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Basic Bitcoin Bitches - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Gold standard vs Fiat vs Bitcoin - Truthloader - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- How to Defund the System: Bitcoin vs. the Central Banksters - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin, Anarchy and Freedom with Roger Ver - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- MIT Goes Bitcoin-Wild [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin Weekly 2014 April 30: Bloomberg adds Bitcoin to their market index, MIT to produce campus-wide bitcoin ... [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- 'Dark Wallet' wants to make Bitcoin even harder to trace [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Bitcoin made simple (video animation) - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Jon Matonis: Bitcoin - The future of commerce? - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- $100 in Bitcoin Going to Every MIT Undergrad - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- The Rise of Digital Currency - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Money Goes Virtual: The Bitcoin Bourse - Video [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]
- Bitcoin Lights with LIFX - Video [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]
- Bitcoin: How We Got Here and Where We Are Going [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- 5/1/14 - Larry Summers warns critics, Paym system & Bitcoin Center NYC roundtable - Video [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- On est Connect S2 #07 1/2 : BitCoin et Musique sur Internet - Video [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- MIT Undergrads To Receive $100 Worth Of Bitcoin This Fall - Video [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- Why it only took ME less than 2 minutes to believe in Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- Bitcoin Basics and Regulation Thoughts from NH Liberty Forum - Bruce Fenton - Video [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- PRIMER CAJERO DE BITCOIN EN BIT CENTER DE TIJUANA - Video [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- Yelp adds Bitcoin acceptance to business listings - Video [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- Bitcoin A Terrorist Threat? Counterterrorism Program Names Virtual Currencies As Area Of Interest [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- How Does Bitcoin Works - Video [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- 10 Things You Didn't Know About BitCoin - Video [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- BITCOIN The Future of Money - Video [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Miner Review - Video [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Group #28 (Live) - Yelp Lists Bitcoin - MIT Bitcoin $100 - Dark Wallet - Ohio Bans BTC - Video [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- Bitcoin: Gary North is Mentally Deranged And Bitcoin Will Change Everything - Video [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- Who is the Bitcoin Warlord? - Video [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]