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The tiny Vir Biotechnology was vaulted from obscurity this year, when it said it was developing treatments for Covid-19. Its stock (ticker: VIR) shot from $12 to a March peak of $75, before settling back to the mid-30swhere GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) bought a $250 million stake.

Vir started clinical trials in August for its antibody treatment against Covid-19. But the train has left the station, says Baird analyst Madhu Kumar, and Vir may have missed its Covid business opportunity. Antibodies from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Regeneron Pharmaceutical (REGN) have already gotten emergency use authorizations from regulators and booked orders. Demand for any Covid-19 treatment will start to shrink with the imminent authorization of vaccines from Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA).

In a Thursday note, Kumar reiterated his Underperform rating for Vir stock, whose shares he thinks should fall to $24 from their recent level near $32.

The Baird analyst went to a sell rating after Virs initial jump in February, and has maintained steady criticism since, in nearly 40 notes. Vir could find success with another treatment it is testing against hepatitis B, says Kumar, but future sales of such a product would only be worth $14 in current value. Ascribing $3.50 in value for Virs other pipeline programs, and counting its $6.50 a share in cash, brings Kumar to his $24 fair value.

Antibodies from Regeneron were among the treatments given to President Donald Trump in October, when he got Covid.

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Virs securities filings say that its Covid-19 antibody trial could produce interim results in January 2021, and a final readout later in that years first quarter. The Baird analyst doesnt expect an authorization and product launch until the springby which point vaccines should be getting into wide supply.

Meanwhile, the bridging opportunity for anti-Covid antibodies is being snapped up by Lilly and Regeneron. The U.S. government arranged to buy 950,000 doses of Lillys treatment, including a deal for 650,000 doses announced Wednesday that will bring $850 million to Lilly.

Write to Bill Alpert at william.alpert@barrons.com

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Vaccines and Approved Antibodies Could Dim Vir Biotechnologys Covid Opportunity - Barron's