Puma Biotechnology, Inc. PBYI is expected to report fourth-quarter 2016 results next month. The company has a mixed earnings history. It missed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, met expectations in one and surpassed the same in the other. The company had an average negative surprise of 2.98% in the last four quarters.

Puma Biotechnology Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Puma Biotechnology Inc Price and EPS Surprise | Puma Biotechnology Inc Quote

Pumas shares have outperformed the Zacks classified Medical-Biomedical and Genetics industry, year to date. Shares of the company gained 17.9% so far this year, while the industry recorded an increase of 6%.

Lets see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Being a development-stage company, Puma Biotech does not have any approved product in its portfolio. Thus, investor focus should remain on updates pertaining to the development of neratinib.

Puma Biotech has made significant progress with its lead candidate, neratinib. The candidate is currently under review in both the U.S. and the EU for the extended adjuvant treatment of HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer that has previously been treated with Herceptin-based adjuvant therapy.

We note that several phase II combination studies on neratinib for the treatment of breast cancer are currently underway.

In Dec 2016, Puma presented encouraging additional data from breast cancer studies at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS). These include data from HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer using loperamide and budesonide prophylaxis study; the FB-7 neoadjuvant HER2-positive breast cancer study in the subgroup of patients who are MammaPrint High; and data from neratinib plus AstraZenecas AZN Faslodex in patients with HER2 non-amplified breast cancer with a HER2 mutation.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Puma Biotech is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is pegged at 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of $2.02. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Puma Biotechs carries a Zacks Rank #3. Though a favorable Zacks Rank increases the predictive power of ESP, the companys 0.00% Earnings ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

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Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards? - Yahoo Finance