Even as the coronavirus pandemic battered the economy, forcing tens of millions of workers to file for unemployment and shuttering businesses large and small, a surprising trend emerged: The number of people filing for personal bankruptcy plunged.
In April, consumer bankruptcies dropped 47% from the same month last year, while May filings were down 43% year over year, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. For the first half of the year, bankruptcies were 24% lower than the first six months of last year.
Experts pointed to numerous factors for the slowdown.
Courts and attorneys offices remained closed during state shutdowns. Evictions and foreclosures often precursors to bankruptcy because people want to save their homes were put on hold. Generous government support and forgiving creditors also kept many from falling into financial distress. Last, those on the brink of bankruptcy before the pandemic had more pressing issues to deal with.
Peoples mental inboxes are full, Professor Robert Lawless at the University of Illinois College of Law, who specializes in bankruptcy, consumer finance and business law, told Yahoo Money. There are a lot of things to sort out in their lives going to see a bankruptcy lawyer has been pushed further down on the to-do list for understandable reasons. I think that was a big part in the early days and weeks of the pandemic.
But the reprieve may be short-lived as the economy sputters, stopping and going as new COVID-19 outbreaks pop up, and as many of the temporary layoffs morph into permanent ones.
As government lifelines to help stabilize the economy begin to expire, bankruptcy provides a shield for households and companies facing intensifying financial distress, ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss said in a statement earlier this week, announcing the half-year bankruptcy statistics. We anticipate filings to begin increasing as a result.
How quickly people file for bankruptcy and how many will do so remain unclear, but bankruptcy attorney George Wade in Alexandria, Virginia, isnt very optimistic.
A man walks through a neighborhood on July 07, 2020 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Everyone who files for unemployment is a potential bankruptcy, he said, noting that many of those who lost jobs wont be getting them back. Were in a state of suspended animation because the government is picking things up.
What happens, he asked, when many of the outside forces keeping people afloat are removed, starting with the expiration of the extra $600 in unemployment benefits at the end of the month and then the eventual resumption of evictions and foreclosures?
In the fall, there will be a flood of bankruptcies, he said. I think it will be a bloodbath.
Lawless is more skeptical. His past research on bankruptcies shows that people take a long time to choose bankruptcy, typically struggling through financial difficulties between two to five years before filing. Oftentimes, they are finally persuaded after a creditor sues them.
Its not like if people get laid off from a job today that they file for bankruptcy tomorrow, he said. It has a very long tail.
Lawless also noted that bankruptcy doesnt find unemployed people jobs; it solves debt problems. If they dont have debt, they dont file for bankruptcy, he said.
Eric Lipps, 52, waits in line to enter the NYCHires Job Fair in New York December 9, 2009. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Story continues
Debt rather than job loss has a tighter macroeconomic correlation with bankruptcy, going back to the explosion of filings in the late 1990s during the dot.com boom and then the increase during the Great Recession. Both of those periods were punctuated by high consumer debt.
Before the pandemic, consumer credit also had been rising, approaching but not yet reaching levels seen before 2008. But that doesnt mean Lawless doesnt expect an increase in filings as the pandemic and its rolling economic effects continue. He just expects many Americans to turn to other debt to sustain them until they finally reach a breaking point.
I think there will be more bankruptcies, but the shape of that curve may be more of a gradual run-up as debt problems accumulate, he said. We may look out two years from now and see there were a lot more people filing.
Janna is an editor for Yahoo Money andCashay. Follow her on Twitter@JannaHerron.
Read more:
Read more personal finance information, news, and tips on Cashay
Continued here:
Personal bankruptcies plunge during pandemic, but 'a flood' could be on the horizon - Yahoo Money
- Alitalia Files for Bankruptcy, but Italy Balks at a Third Bailout - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- A Slow Bankruptcy Process Stops Locale-Reviving Jobs - Wall Street Journal (subscription) [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Bankruptcy auction for property of NASCAR artist Sam Bass ... - Charlotte Observer [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Obamacare helped make a 50% dent in personal bankruptcies ... - MarketWatch [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Pennsylvania Toy Seller Files For Bankruptcy - Wall Street Journal (subscription) [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Puerto Rico Enters Bankruptcy - Wall Street Journal (subscription) [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Puerto Rico Declares a Form of Bankruptcy - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Farmer Mac Early Exclusive: Farm Bankruptcy Rates Low - AgWeb [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2017]
- Washington weighs in on Westinghouse bankruptcy | News ... - Aiken Standard [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2017]
- 4 Reasons Why Puerto Rico's 'Bankruptcy' Process Matters to US Residents - NBCNews.com [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2017]
- Valeant: There Is Significant Bankruptcy Risk Here - Seeking Alpha [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2017]
- Westinghouse bankruptcy draws federal scrutiny as VC Summer nuclear project's future remains unclear - Charleston Post Courier [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2017]
- Bebe Avoids Bankruptcy Filing With Real-Estate Deals - Wall Street Journal (subscription) [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2017]
- rue21 Bankruptcy Objections Filed - Bankrupt Company News (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: June 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 7th, 2017]
- ISH to emerge from bankruptcy as Seacor subsidiary - WorkBoat (blog) [Last Updated On: June 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 7th, 2017]
- Curtains for the Pearl, as the Theater Company Files for Bankruptcy - New York Times [Last Updated On: June 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 7th, 2017]
- Bankruptcy fraud earns Pepperell man 18 months | Boston Herald - Boston Herald [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2017]
- Vikki Lindemuth favors appointment of trustee to handle husband's bankruptcy - Topeka Capital Journal [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2017]
- Creditors seek to force bankruptcy of Tinley Park firm - Chicago Tribune [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2017]
- Abengoa Bankruptcy Liquidation Plan Confirmed - Bankrupt Company News (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2017]
- Retailer BCBG Unveils Going-Concern Bankruptcy Sales - Wall Street Journal (subscription) [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2017]
- For Hartford, bankruptcy not an easy way out - The CT Mirror [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2017]
- Why Students Should Be Able To Declare Bankruptcy On Their Loans - ATTN: [Last Updated On: June 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 10th, 2017]
- Bankruptcy forces curtain to fall on community theater - Chicago Tribune [Last Updated On: June 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 10th, 2017]
- Ex-Pepperell man jailed in bankruptcy case - Lowell Sun [Last Updated On: June 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 10th, 2017]
- Owner of Joe's Crab Shack files for bankruptcy | Jacksonville News ... - Florida Times-Union [Last Updated On: June 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 11th, 2017]
- Why test for bankruptcy law is a larger test for India - The Indian Express [Last Updated On: June 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 11th, 2017]
- Tax trouble firms' most likely road to bankruptcy - Albuquerque Journal [Last Updated On: June 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 12th, 2017]
- Darius Miles' Bankruptcy Sale Includes Signed LeBron James, Larry ... - Bleacher Report [Last Updated On: June 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 12th, 2017]
- Winter Haven attorney gets prison for concealing assets in ... - News Chief [Last Updated On: June 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 12th, 2017]
- Children's retailer Gymboree files bankruptcy, closing up to 450 stores - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: June 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 12th, 2017]
- Another retailer has filed for bankruptcy - mySanAntonio.com [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2017]
- Esperanza Unida bankruptcy delays city redevelopment efforts - BizTimes.com (Milwaukee) [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2017]
- Square 1 Burgers files bankruptcy, blames over-saturated restaurant market - Orlando Sentinel [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2017]
- Big KC manufacturer files for bankruptcy - Kansas City Business Journal [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2017]
- Canadians Have Been Refinancing To Delay Bankruptcy - Seeking Alpha [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2017]
- Gymboree Files For Bankruptcy, Plans To Close At Least 375 Stores - Forbes [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2017]
- Sears, J. Crew, Claire's Are Bankruptcy Risks (SHLD) | Investopedia - Investopedia [Last Updated On: June 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 14th, 2017]
- Tampa's Square 1 Burgers files for bankruptcy protection - Tampabay.com [Last Updated On: June 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 14th, 2017]
- RBI, Banks And NPAs - First, Reform India's Bankruptcy Code, Then Force Defaulters Into It - Forbes [Last Updated On: June 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 14th, 2017]
- Retail bloodbath: Bankruptcy filings pile up - CNNMoney [Last Updated On: June 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 14th, 2017]
- Bankruptcy cases show we've become a nation of selective justice - New York Daily News [Last Updated On: June 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 14th, 2017]
- Soupman of 'Seinfeld' Soup Nazi fame files for bankruptcy protection - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: June 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 14th, 2017]
- Strack & Van Til bankruptcy case moved to Illinois - nwitimes.com [Last Updated On: June 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 16th, 2017]
- Lawsuit: Wells Fargo revised mortgages in bankruptcy without permission - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: June 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 16th, 2017]
- France's CGG files for bankruptcy protection - MarketWatch [Last Updated On: June 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 16th, 2017]
- 'Soup Nazi' company files for bankruptcy - CNNMoney [Last Updated On: June 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 16th, 2017]
- France's CGG Group Files for Bankruptcy Protection - Wall Street Journal (subscription) [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2017]
- Company of businessman behind polo facility expansion files for bankruptcy protection - Fauquier Times [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2017]
- Vehicles involved in Dusty Old Cars bankruptcy to be auctioned - WMUR Manchester [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2017]
- Could Illinois be the first state to file for bankruptcy? - CBS News [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2017]
- Takata Said to Ready Bankruptcy Filing Ahead of Sale to Rival - New York Times [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2017]
- Greece escapes brush with bankruptcy but austerity still bites - FRANCE 24 [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2017]
- Pawnbroker A-OK cites embezzlement in multimillion-dollar bankruptcy - Wichita Eagle [Last Updated On: June 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 18th, 2017]
- Clock is Ticking on India's Bad Bank Debts Under Bankruptcy Laws - Bloomberg [Last Updated On: June 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 18th, 2017]
- Surveyor dealing with fine, bankruptcy - Muncie Star Press [Last Updated On: June 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 18th, 2017]
- Mode Media Assets Acquired by Wedding Ad Network BrideClick in Bankruptcy Deal - Variety [Last Updated On: June 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 18th, 2017]
- San Bernardino officially out of bankruptcy - San Bernardino County Sun [Last Updated On: June 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 20th, 2017]
- 22 retailers that are at serious risk of bankruptcy - Chron.com [Last Updated On: June 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 20th, 2017]
- What to expect in defective air bag maker Takata's looming bankruptcy - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: June 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 20th, 2017]
- Could Illinois file for bankruptcy? - FOX Illinois [Last Updated On: June 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 20th, 2017]
- Exploding airbags: Takata shares plummet 17% on bankruptcy reports - CNNMoney [Last Updated On: June 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 20th, 2017]
- These 14 Stores May Be on the Brink of Bankruptcy | NBC Southern ... - NBC Southern California [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2017]
- Medical bankruptcies - WEAR [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2017]
- After five long years, San Bernardino is officially out of bankruptcy. What's next? - Los Angeles Times [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2017]
- Takata to file for bankruptcy Monday, SMFG to provide bridge loan: sources - Reuters [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2017]
- Sears Canada files for bankruptcy - CNNMoney [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2017]
- Foundation Healthcare Chapter 11 Bankruptcy - Bankrupt Company News (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: June 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 23rd, 2017]
- Implant Sciences Bankruptcy Objections Filed - Bankrupt Company News (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: June 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 23rd, 2017]
- Puerto Rico Bankruptcy: Uncertainty, But Also Stock Profit Opportunity - Seeking Alpha [Last Updated On: June 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 23rd, 2017]
- Lakeland day care files for bankruptcy without paying workers - wreg.com [Last Updated On: June 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 23rd, 2017]
- Sears Canada Closing 59 Stores as It Seeks Bankruptcy Protection - Fortune [Last Updated On: June 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 23rd, 2017]
- Takata to file for bankruptcy Monday, SMBC to provide bridge loan: Sources - CNBC [Last Updated On: June 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 23rd, 2017]
- How Sears Canada's Bankruptcy Impacts Sears Holdings Corp. - Seeking Alpha [Last Updated On: June 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 23rd, 2017]
- Augusta native sworn in as newest Bankruptcy Court judge - The Augusta Chronicle [Last Updated On: June 24th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 24th, 2017]
- Takata reportedly planning to file for bankruptcy - CNBC [Last Updated On: June 24th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 24th, 2017]
- Bankruptcy - money_selfhelp [Last Updated On: June 24th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 24th, 2017]
- Japan press - Takata expected to file for bankruptcy protection in Tokyo - ForexLive [Last Updated On: June 26th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 26th, 2017]
- Bankruptcy guru Edward Altman sees similarities to 2007 in the credit market today - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: June 26th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 26th, 2017]
- Takata's woes expected to continue beyond bankruptcy filing amid mounting recall costs - CNBC [Last Updated On: June 26th, 2017] [Originally Added On: June 26th, 2017]