Automation and robotics may be a serious threat in the next couple of decades to the flourishing economies of Oxford Countys three major centres as automation becomes cheaper and more accessible.

According to a new report, three out of the top five Ontario communities that are predicted to have jobs threatened by automation are in Oxford County with Ingersoll and Tillsonburg rated number one and two respectively.

Woodstock is number five on the list of towns or cities with the highest concentration of work with the potential to be automated.

Released this week, the new report is the second in the last two years published by Toronto-based Brookfield Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (BII+E) using compiled information to examine potential jobs threatened by automation.

Some industries, the report says, involve a higher concentration of tasks that are susceptible, such as manufacturing and mining.

We dont want to be the bearer of bad news but we want to let people know how they will do under this phenomenon, said Sean Mullin, executive director of BII+E. The point of the paper is to bring awareness.

Entitled Mapping Automation: How will the advancing technology impact cities and towns across Canada? the report uses McKinsey and Company and census data to examine which towns, cities and regions that are more susceptible to automation.

Mullin said the three Oxford County communities were identified based on the composition of the local labour market.

According to the report, the three Oxford communities have work forces in which 50 per cent of jobs have the potential to be automated.

Manufacturing, not surprisingly, is an area considered to be quite susceptible to automation, Mullin said. The composition of the three labour markets is fairly similar.

Other occupations with the potential to be eliminated include accommodation and food service industry, as well as the retail industry due to the emergence of online shopping and self-checkouts.

The changes could take around 10 to 20 years to take place but nothing is written in stone.

As with any forward looking forecast there is a certain amount of uncertainty... Mullin said. Rather than precisely predict what will happen two to three years from now, we want to provide a guide that says here look at this phenomenon. How should we be thinking about this over 10 or 20 year period?

Mullin said the report is designed as an early warning of what may be to come for some workers.

It gives you a sense of how to anticipate some of those areas and even respond to them, he said.

In Ingersoll, almost one-quarter of the labour force is employed in the manufacturing industry.

According to the report, the town may have already felt the brunt of some of the trends associated with the decline of manufacturing, with 625 job cuts likely due to globalization as well as automation.

Ingersolls economic development officer Curtis Tighe said there is very little difference between Ingersoll and other Ontario and Oxford communities in terms of manufacturing percentages.

Its an Oxford County issue, he said. It will affect Oxford County hard but it will also affect all of Western society hard. It will affect us all similarly.

In Ingersoll, Tighe said a small population with a large number of manufacturing jobs is likely why they are teetering at the top of the list.

We've done a great job of attracting manufacturing jobs in the past, Tighe said. Our best opportunity is to be adaptable and change quickly as the world changes. As long as we have a good mindset - and I think we do in Oxford County - to adapt to a changing world , I think we will be fine.

Our adaptability gives us the opportunity to change and lessen the impact.

Tighe said the town will be watching closely as BII+E continue their research into the automation and the future.

We will look forward to those reports and will read them closely, he said.

Whether massive job losses and a flailing economy are part of Oxford Countys future is yet to be determined.

Forecasts are not destiny, Mullin said. We think there are bunch of things Canadians and policy makers can do in response to this, in terms of preparing for types of careers or jobs likely not to be at risk. Whats not picked up in the nuance of the study is the difference between a really first class manufacturer and somewho may be about to become obsolete.

According to the report, Canada also has a large portion of its labour force that will be insulated from automation, with 28 per cent of its population working in least susceptible industries such as health care, social assistance, as well as services in the professional, scientific and technical fields.

View full report at brookfieldinstitute.ca.

HRiver@postmedia.com

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