When it comes to robots displacing humans from the job market, government bureaucrats are generally not what springs to mind. The recent McKinsey report on the future of jobs estimates the automation potential of administrative jobs at just 39 per cent, far less than the 73 per cent potential for accommodation and food services.
And yet the public sector is one of the biggest potential arenas for such displacement and one in which most people wouldnt mind seeing more automation. The reason its barely happening now is largely, and predictably, an absence of political will.
Since 2013, Oxford University academics Carl Frey and Michael Osborne have done seminal work on automation risks for jobs, quoted by most studies on the subject. Their 2016 work with Craig Holmes and a team of Citibank employees listed some of the most automation-endangered professions:
In some countries, some of the people in these jobs such as postal employees are public sector workers. But government clerks who do predictable, rule-based, often mechanical work also are in danger of displacement by machines.
In a recent collaboration with Deloitte U.K., Profs. Osborne and Frey estimated that about a quarter of public sector workers are employed in administrative and operative roles which have a high probability of automation.
In the U.K., they estimated some 861,000 such jobs could be eliminated by 2030, creating 17 billion pounds (US$21.4 billion) in savings for the taxpayer. These would include people like underground train operators but mainly local government paper pushers.
This week, Reform, the London-based think tank dedicated to improving public service efficiency, published a paper on automating the public sector. It applied methodology developed by Osborne and Frey to the U.K.s central government departments and calculated that almost 132,000 workers could be replaced by machines in the next 10 to 15 years, using currently known automation methods.
Only 20 per cent of government employees do strategic, cognitive work that requires human thinking at least for now, while artificial intelligence is as imperfect as it is. Most of the rest are what the Reform report calls the frozen middle levels of hierarchy where bureaucrats wont budge without approval from above.
Almost all British government departments have 10 employee grades or more. The department for environment, food and rural affairs has 13. Most of the middle-level tasks are routine and rigidly regulated and motivation is low: Only 38 percent of middle-level bureaucrats say they feel good about what they do. In the U.K., the average civil servant takes 8 sick days a year, while a private sector worker takes 5. In the last two decades public sector spending rose by an average 3.1 percent a year, about 16 times faster than productivity.
The Reform report discusses how this frozen middle could be thawed. The general idea is to automate information flows and organize remaining employees into project teams that may not even need to be managed. Thats not necessarily a good idea, though many companies in the tech sector Netflix, GitHub, Zappos work like this: Informal hierarchies that arise in such an environment can be even more stifling than formal ones. But if work creation is not the goal and efficiency is, the optimal organizational forms will suggest themselves as routine tasks are automated away.
Theres also automation potential for so-called front line jobs where bureaucrats interact with the public. Many people dont want any human contact in these situations, most people want less of it, and nobody enjoys dealing with government services.
The U.K. has one of the biggest public sectors in the developed world relative to population because health care is socialized. A third of U.K. residents say theyd like to book doctor appointments online, but fewer than 7 percent actually do it because the service is either inconvenient or unavailable. Brits often complain of long waiting times for doctor appointments, yet at the same time, a private-sector service called Babylon provides instant online contact with doctors for a 5 pound monthly fee. With some ingenuity, which is lacking today, the British National Health Service could have put it out of business.
Perhaps because Frey and Osborne work in the U.K., their kind of analysis hasnt been applied to other countries bureaucracies. It should be applicable almost everywhere, though. Unfortunately, bureaucratic hierarchies are famously resistant to change. To seriously entertain such a major shift in the structure of the labor market, governments will first have to promise training or reskilling for soon-to-be-unemployed bureaucrats. That is likely to be an up-front cost that eats into savings made, at least for a while.
Still, some labor substitution of this kind may be inevitable. Shock events like Donald Trumps arrival in the White House could catalyze the change. When a department is plunged into chaos by a lack of senior appointments or a sudden need to prove that its actually needed, automation is suddenly not suicide but self-preservation.
Bloomberg News
See the original post:
Robots versus bureaucrats: Why public sector work is ripe for automation - Financial Post
- The Automation Conference [Last Updated On: December 9th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 9th, 2016]
- The Best Home Automation Systems of 2016 | Top Ten Reviews [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2016]
- Compact Automation - Actuators, Hydraulic Cylinders, Linear ... [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2016]
- What is Home Automation? | Home Automation Systems [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2016]
- Job Seekers - Automation Personnel Services [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2016]
- iAutomation [Last Updated On: December 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 25th, 2016]
- Beyond Automation - hbr.org [Last Updated On: December 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 25th, 2016]
- Automation The Car Company Tycoon Game on Steam [Last Updated On: December 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 25th, 2016]
- Automation - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: December 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 25th, 2016]
- Build automation - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2016]
- Home - Enerwave Home Automation [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2016]
- Automation | Technologies | Systems | Integrator ... [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2016]
- Automation - DESHAZO [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2016]
- Custom Automation & Machine Design | Automation GT [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2016]
- IT Automation - BMC [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2016]
- Werner Electric | Automation [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Automationtechies | Automation Engineering Recruiting [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Automation - Mazak Corporation [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Automation | Food Engineering [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Test Automation Services for Development of Regression ... [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- UI Automation Overview - msdn.microsoft.com [Last Updated On: February 5th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 5th, 2017]
- The Evolution of Automation and What It Means for the Integration Industry - Commercial Integrator [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Automation, robots could replace 250000 public sector workers in the next 15 years - Computer Business Review [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- New telecom transformation goals require service automation - TechTarget [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Automation expected to displace insurance underwriters, real estate brokers - CIO Dive [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- The Perks Of Automation And The Risks: Why To Think Twice About Getting Into That Driverless Uber - Forbes [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Voices Reinventing enterprise finance by overhauling AP automation - Accounting Today [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- DFLabs Launches the First Security Automation and Orchestration Platform based Upon Supervised Active Intelligence - Business Wire (press release) [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- VIDEO: Going Big on Automation in a Small Footprint Facility - ENGINEERING.com [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Building a better model of human-automation interaction - Phys.org - Phys.Org [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Cruise Automation Is Testing an App For Hailing Self-Driving Cars - Fortune [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- AlixPartners examines automation in manufacturing and logistics management - Logistics Management [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Women need to look out for each other in automated workplaces - The Guardian [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Automation vs. the H-1B visa program: Which matters to employees? - TechTarget [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Automation is the unavoidable future of the economy - The Daily Cougar [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Speeders beware: Legislation would allow automation crackdown ... - SFGate [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Rockwell Automation Surged 10% in January as Growth Picked Up Steam - Motley Fool [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Global Medical Automation Market to Reach Approximately $75.6 Billion by 2025 - By End User, Application ... - PR Newswire (press release) [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Automation 'key' to advancing Thai production - The Nation [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- WorkWave Releases New Lead Management And Marketing ... - PR Newswire (press release) [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- 'We employ insane levels of automation' Kris Canekeratne - Times of India [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Most people are optimistic about workplace automation, social data suggests - ZDNet [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Yes, there's a job creation argument for automation and technology ... - The Hill (blog) [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Technobabble: Automation and the modern worker - CIO Dive [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Improving Behavior Through Automation of Vehicle Systems - School Transportation News (blog) [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Automation Nightmare: Philosopher Warns We Are Creating a World Without Consciousness - Big Think [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Why Don't We See More Automation in Federal Networks? - Nextgov [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Automation can revitalize the US workforce - Fox News [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Readers Write (Feb. 12): The moose population; jobs, start-ups and automation; diversity in the funny pages - Minneapolis Star Tribune [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Automation can replace bureaucrats and save taxpayers money - Hot Air [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- TigerStop hopes to ride automation to new heights - The Columbian [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Your Most Valuable Resource is Time Get More of it through Automation - CMS Critic (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- What Does Device Automation Mean for Users? - Medical Device and Diagnostics Industry (blog) [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- How To Beat Automation And Not Lose Your Job - Forbes [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Logistics firm gets automation boost - The Straits Times [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- PP Control & Automation launch new video to kick-start exciting plans for 2017 - Manufacturer.com [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Automation's Impace on Data Center Monitoring Alerts - The Data Center Journal [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Hollysys Automation Technologies Reports Unaudited Financial Results for the First Half Year and the Second Quarter ... - PR Newswire (press release) [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- 4 Automation Hacks to Save You Money and Manpower - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Istuary Innovation Group and Bluewrist Partner to Bring Robotics and Automation into China's Manufacturing Sector - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Redwood Software Named a Strong Performer in Independent Robotic Process Automation (RPA) Report - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Boeing ramps up automation, innovation as it readies 737MAX | The ... - The Seattle Times [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Robots and AI are coming for our jobs, but can augmentation save us from automation? - Digital Trends [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- The Impact of Bad Data in Automation: Why Quality Management is Critical - R & D Magazine [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Automation: Are We Empowering Human Interaction Or Displacing It? - Business 2 Community [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Life in the Fast LaneAutomation with Software-Defined Intelligence - InfoWorld [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Luddite Lefty Journalists Apparently Think Workplace Automation is Conservatives' Fault [VIDEO] - Daily Caller [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Will automation define the future of network technology? - TechTarget [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Editorial: Improving automation - The Motorship [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- TigerText Unveils Role-based Scheduling Automation, Amazon Alexa integration - HIT Consultant [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- 89% people want automation at workplace: Adobe - Economic Times [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Delta veers to EV parts, automation - Bangkok Post [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Robotic process automation makes nearshore outsourcing more ... - CIO [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- The working-class job that Trump could save from automation - Washington Post [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- China must be ready for automation - Basic Income News [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Bill Gates Says Robots Should Be Taxed Like Workers - Fortune [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Trump and automation challenge India's IT industry - VentureBeat [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Both Trump and Automation Are Challenging India's IT Industry - Fortune [Last Updated On: February 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 20th, 2017]
- 89% people want automation at workplace: Adobe - ETCIO.com [Last Updated On: February 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 20th, 2017]
- The art of balancing workplace automation - Retail Customer Experience (blog) [Last Updated On: February 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 20th, 2017]