(If you haven’t yet heard the first episode of the new Point of Inquiry, you can listen here, and I also strongly encourage you to subscribe via iTunes from the same page.)

Perhaps the most alarming part of my conversation with Paul Offit came when he argued we’re already seeing many scary diseases return, thanks to reduced vaccination rates in certain communities around the U.S. I wasn’t sure whether there was clear evidence of this yet (save the obvious case of the measles in the UK). But Offit certainly sounded sure. I asked him the following question, “The public health fear is that diseases that were once vanquished or rare will return. How much evidence is there that that’s happening?” Here is his reply around minute 25:30:

Abundant evidence. I would have said ten years ago it was theoretical. And certainly, if we had immunization rates that dropped from 98 percent to 95 percent, or 94 percent, you wouldn’t see what we’re seeing now.

And frankly, just to take a step back, if you look at nationwide immunization rates, they’re excellent. And I think our country frankly asks a lot of its citizens when it asks children to receive vaccines against 14 different diseases in the first few years of life, which can mean 26 inoculations in the first few years, and as many as five shots at one time. I think that’s a lot to ask of parents, and for the most part, our immunization rates are excellent.

The problem is, there are certain communities or districts where the immunization rates are quite low: Ashland, Oregon; Vashon Island off Washington State; Southern California; Hasidic Jews in New York state. And so what you’re starting to see now is outbreaks of infectious diseases. Specifically, we had a measles epidemic in 2008 that was bigger than anything we’ve seen in more than a decade. We have outbreaks of pertussis now, or whooping cough, one of which occurred in Delaware in 2006, where the epidemiological pattern was exactly like one would see in the pre-vaccine era, meaning primarily 5 to 9 year olds. And we’ve had cases of bacterial meningitis, one particular type that is perfectly preventable by vaccines, that has caused deaths–one in Minnesota, three in the Philadelphia era.

I used to say that I think that the tide will turn when people start to see children die of these diseases. They’re seeing children die of these diseases. And so now I’ve changed to, “when enough children die.” But I think it is perfectly possible for diseases like polio to come back in the United States. Because it still occurs in the world, and only about 1 of every 200 to 500 people with polio actually becomes paralyzed with it, most people have no symptoms, but still are contagious. So let enough people stop getting vaccinated against polio, and there is every reason to believe it will come back.

Scary, scary stuff.

Again, you can listen to the podcast and subscribe here. And don’t forget to buy Paul Offit’s book Autism’s False Prophets if you don’t already own it…