Dont take too seriously any speculations about what the next decade will hold. Be ready for another wave of astounding, unforeseen events. Who in 2000 could have foreseen 9/11 or the economic crisis of 2008? Or the election of our first African-American president? Who in 2010 could have predicted the rise of political populism and the ascension of Donald Trump, Brexit or the aggressive foreign policies of China and Russia? Or the general breakdown in recent years of the post-WWII order that led to the avoidance of another global conflict and created conditions for the stunning rise in global living standards? (Over 1 billion people have emerged from dire poverty in the new millennium; thats 137,000 people a day.) Or that billions of people would possess handheld devices that are virtually supercomputers? Or that Hong Kong would be rocked by pro-democracy demonstrations for months on end, which could, in the goodness of time, have profound repercussions in China itself?

Nonetheless, despite the futures impenetrable fog, the itch to predict is irresistible. So here goes, in a few categories.

Healthcare will experience enormous Uber/Lyft-like upheavals, providing entrepreneurs with an astounding array of opportunities. The fundamental problem in this immense sector is the lack of free markets. The system has been dominated by third partiesinsurers, government and employers. In what other industry, for instance, would government feel compelled, as the Trump administration has begun to do, to require providers to post prices?!?

The prime propellant for radical change is the rapid rise of high-deductible company insurance plans. The amounts of money people are paying out-of-pocket for medical expenses is fast approaching the size of the U.S. travel industry. Services providing price comparisons for various tests and procedures are coming, big-time. So are metrics that will enable patients to compare outcomes at various clinics and hospitals. Free markets will do what governments have never been able to do with their top-down, regulatory initiatives: provide more and better healthcare at less cost.

Previously, there was no competitive advantage in adopting innovations such as telemedicine, electronic records and warranties for procedures. This burgeoning consumerism will also lead to faster adoption of breakthroughs. Such market-oriented pressures will see most general hospitals evolve into specialized treatment centers or disappear altogether. The political fallout from this will be immense.

In addition, expect big breakthroughs in cures (especially for Alzheimers), in cheap, personal and convenient delivery systems and in sweeping changes in how pharmaceuticals are manufactured.

Current thinking about tax and monetary policies will be obliterated. No sane person would posit that constantly changing weights and measures, such as the number of inches in a foot, the number of minutes in an hour, the number of ounces in a pound or the size of a gallon would stimulate the marketplace. Yet thats exactly what central banks do with money, which is supposed to measure value. Unstable currencies hinder progress, because they inhibit investment, the key to higher standards of living; instability makes people concerned about preserving what they have, so they put their money into hard assets like gold, silver, land or houseswhich is exactly what happened during the run up to 2008, after the U.S. deliberately weakened the dollar.

Heres a prediction no one else will make: By 2030 countries will be adopting the gold standard, the method for monetary soundness that has worked for 4,000 years.

Another economic idiocy that will go by the boards is the idea that taxes dont much effect economic performance. Taxes are a price and burden. A light burden lets commerce flourish.

As unlikely as it may seem with every candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination advocating higher levies on more and more things and activities, a growing number of governments in coming years will move in the opposite direction, reducing tax rates to generate growth and, yes, more revenue.

The Magic Formula, a recent book by Forbes.com contributor Nathan Lewis, demonstrates conclusively that throughout recorded history economies that have low tax regimes and sound currencies end up doing better than those that dontalways. This book will become the bible for a new generation of policymakers.

The way governments engage in regulation will dramatically change. Since the 1960s, the U.S. has experienced an unrelenting tsunami of rules spurred by the spurious notion that precise rules can be written to cover every conceivable contingency in life, thereby removing imperfect human judgment. The result has been a diminution, especially in government, of responsibility for actually getting things done.

Watch for this regime of suffocating rules to be replaced by one of simple principles or goals. It will be up to those affected to find the best ways to achieve a given task. If the results are found to be lacking, those in charge will suffer the consequences. No crying, But we followed the rules! Australia, for example, replaced hundreds of pages of nursing home regulations with a few pages of principles, and the outcome was excellent.

Expect dramatic changes in higher education, galvanized by the scandalous explosion in student debt. Unending increases in college sticker prices will cease, as people focus on the bloating of higher-ed bureaucracies and as institutions are forced to share some of the liability for loans to their students. This will help deal with another scandal: the pitiful graduation rate of students, even within six years. Purdue, under its president, Mitch Daniels, is a pioneer here: The total cost for a student at Purdue today is lower than it was in 2013, when Daniels took office.

Young people will feel less pressure to go to college after high school and instead will pursue good-paying jobs where shortages exist. The presence of online courses will enable them to pursue additional education when they want to.

Of course, there will be crises and challenges.

There will be plenty of issues to roil American politics. These will include things before us today, such as climate policies, identity politics, campus free speech, and coming to grips with how to better mainstream the growing numbers of released prisoners. The 2020 elections, despite a rather uninspiring beginning, will see the start of a profound debate about what kind of country we are to become. This isnt unprecedented. Weve had such soul of America events in the 1850s, the 1890s, the 1930s and, to a lesser extent, the 1970s.

Current concerns over privacy will pale in comparison to the worries coming as we realize the implications of the rise of the surveillance state. In China soon a persons every move in every place every day will be recorded and preserved forever. In freer countries people will still experience the increased recording of their everyday moves. A ripe market will arise for devices that can disrupt ubiquitous nano-cameras.

The world will watch to see if India, a diverse and multicultural state if there ever was one, can hold together in the face of rising Hindu nationalism. If this goes wrong, the ramifications will have international repercussions.

Drug lords will control a growing portion of Mexico unless we find grassroots ways to lessen drug use here in the U.S.

Despite growing use of windmills and solar energy, global consumption of fossil fuels will expand enormously as China, India and other developing countries see car and truck unit sales mushroom by the tens of millions. Electricity will still be generated predominantly by fossil fuelsunless massive high-tech breakthroughs arise. Which, in this ever-unpredictable world, cannot be ruled out.

Bottom line: Such crystal-balling will be quickly outdated by actual events.

Link:

Whatll Happen In The Next Decade? Here Are 9 Predictions For The 2020s - Forbes