As the novel coronavirus continues its mid-summer surge across the state, East Baton Rouge Parish has closed in fast on Orleans Parish for the second-highest total number of diagnosed cases in Louisiana, new health data show.

In the spring, Orleans Parish was the epicenter of the viral pandemic. But, as cases have risen and different parts of the state have flashed with outbreaks, Orleans has slowly given ground to other parishes even as it slowly adds cases.

Next-door Jefferson Parish passed Orleans in early May and continues to have the most total cases in Louisiana.

Now, East Baton Rouge, which is Louisianas most populous parish, is not far behind Orleans though it remains thousands of cases behind Jefferson, state data show.

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Thats a significant change from July 1, when East Baton Rouge was more than 2,500 cases behind Orleans' total. By Friday, the gap has narrowed to 359 cases, health data show.

Susan Hassig, a Tulane University epidemiologist whose research specialty includes infectious disease outbreaks, said that, with that kind of growth, it wont be long before East Baton Rouge Parish overtakes Orleans.

She suggested Orleans residents early experience with the virus and the sharp rise in cases exacerbated by Mardi Gras have had a lingering psychological impact that has affected peoples social distancing behavior and city restrictions, which have slowed new cases.

I think the New Orleanians, you know, got the pants scared off of them with that high early spike and everything else," she said. "And, yeah, theres some people that arent masking, but there are a lot of people who are staying home and the ones that are going out are generally being really careful when they are going out."

Mayor LaToya Cantrell also eased social distancing restrictions more slowly than the state in May and more quickly instituted mask requirements in June.

Hassig pointed out that the mayor also offered pretty strong messages about the threat of the virus and the need to maintain social distancing restrictions. Cantrell has also faced strong pushback from business leaders worried about the economic and tourism impact of continued restrictions.

Through Friday, East Baton Rouge Parish has had 9,393 cases of the novel coronavirus since the virus was first detected in the parish in mid-March. The parish added 224 new cases on Friday, the third consecutive day with more than 200 cases.

During July, the parish has had 12 days with more than 200 cases and hasn't had fewer than 103 cases per day, with the exception of two days when data weren't reported.

The sharp growth in new cases has far exceeded the worst peak in April. East Baton Rouge Parish broke 9,000 cases and the 12-parish capital area broke 20,000 cases on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Baton Rouge region has three parishes outside East Baton Rouge Parish that have had more than 2,000 cases: Livingston at 2,212, Ascension at 2,175 and Tangipahoa at 2,692.

Statewide, 67% of all people who have tested positive for the virus have recovered.

In addition to East Baton Rouges rise, the latest case figures also speak in other ways to the changing geographic nature of the virus's spread.

Since the outbreak started, Ascension had remained ahead of Livingston in cases and deaths. But, on Monday, Livingston Parish finally overtook Ascension in total case numbers.

The parishes, two of the most populous suburban parishes in the Baton Rouge area, both broke 2,000 total cases the next day, and Livingston has since widened the gap with Ascension.

The rise in cases has come amid a major testing push that has nearly doubled the daily average number of completed tests in the region since July 1, an Advocate analysis shows.

The latest increases in cases have also affected a younger portion of the population than earlier in the outbreak. Those younger demographic groups are far less likely to suffer severe health consequences or death.

But the growth in cases has still brought new strains on the health system and other negative outcomes. Based on federal benchmarks, that suggests the rising numbers cant be attributed to more testing alone.

Meanwhile, deaths from the virus, which had remained at low levels for weeks with a handful or zero fatalities each day, may be starting an upward turn.

East Baton Rouge has had 18 deaths since Sunday, while the 12-parish region has had 39.

East Baton Rouge broke 300 deaths from COVID-19 this week and had 306 as of Friday, state health data show.

Deaths from the virus typically come weeks after cases are diagnosed and people are admitted to hospitals.

As of Friday, just 14% of all staffed intensive care unit beds in the state health region that includes much of the Baton Rouge area 31 out of 221 beds -- were still available for any medical need, state data show.

In early June, bed availability was running around 40% of total capacity.

Hassig said the virus has proven itself able to take advantage of opportunities and slowly and quietly build up a critical mass.

Part of it is that Baton Rouge had a long percolating build up to this point, and now its rearing its ugly head, she said.

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Coronavirus in Baton Rouge: Louisiana's biggest parish not far behind Orleans in number of cases - The Advocate