NZIER survey sheds light on anatomy of the business confidence collapse – Stuff.co.nz

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NZIER survey shows businesses weren't calm before the storm finally hit.

Business confidence was crashingin the lead up to New Zealand's coronavirus lockdown, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research'squarterly survey of business opinion.

The index showed a net 67 per cent of firms were expecting economic conditions in the year ahead to deteriorate.

The surveyclosed on March 20, six days before the lockdown, but five days after the Government had ordered all travellers to New Zealand to self-isolate on arrival.

However, the majority of responses were received earlier, during the seven days ending on March 11.

READ MORE:*Air NZ lays off pilots* The stats that show lockdown may be working* Business confidence sinks but ANZ warns the worst may be yet to come

A net 11 per centreported weaker demand in their own business in the March quarter, anda net 13 per cent were also expecting that in the three months to the end of June.

NZIER saidwhileactivity held up reasonably well in the weeks leading up to the lockdown, businesses were looking to pare back operations in anticipation of weaker demand ahead.

An extrapolation of the pattern of responsessuggestedthat almost 70 per cent of businesses would probablyhave reported a deterioration in demand towards the end of March, NZIER said.

"Unsurprisingly, services sector firms reported a weakening in their own trading activity as the weeks progressed.

"In contrast, manufacturers and builders saw an improvement in demand over the weeks leading up to the lockdown."

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