Lets start this look back at the New Orleans Saints crushing loss to Tampa Bay with some historical perspective.
Since the start of the 2002 season, there have been 404 NFL games in which a team finished with a minus-4 turnover margin or worse. The teams on the wrong side of the ledger in those games have a record of 10-393-1 in those contests. That is a 2.6% winning percentage.
New Orleans added to that ignominious statistic in Week 2. Put simply, the Saints carelessness with the football gave them the narrowest possible chance at beating the Buccaneers on Sunday.
The Saints played well enough to win for most of the game, and then it fell apart. Lets not overanalyze this: The Saints literally handed the game away.
The Saints were driving late in the third quarter and looked destined to finally crack a 3-3 tie when they let the game slip from their grasp.
On first-and-10 from the Tampa 20, Saints running back Mark Ingram surged through the defensive front for a 9-yard gain. As he neared the 10-yard line, Ingram covered the ball with two hands and braced for contact. It was solid ball security, but it was beat with a better punch by defensive back Logan Ryan.
Ryan jarred the ball free, and defensive lineman Carl Nassib recovered, ending the scoring threat. And thats precisely where the offensive wheels fell off for the Saints.
Starting with Ingrams fumble, New Orleans turned the ball over four times in a span of 10 offensive plays. It went from driving for the go-ahead score to trailing by three scores, as Tampa Bay turned the four turnovers into 17 points.
Ingrams fumble was the turning point, but the Saints were still in it until the Buccaneers went on an interception binge in the fourth quarter. Of the three picks quarterback Jameis Winston threw to Tampa defenders, only his first was defensible.
Winston and the Saints had been trying to hit Chris Olave deep all game, and with good reason: Tampa frequently left Olave in single coverage with no safety help, and the rookie receiver frequently got a step on his man. Winston and Olave simply were not able to connect.
That was the case again in the fourth quarter when, near midfield with the score still deadlocked at 3, Winston heaved it long for Olave yet again. Olave had a step on Jamel Dean with nobody in front of him. If Winston had put the ball out in front, only Olave would have had a shot at the play. But the throw was just a touch short, which allowed Dean to recover and make the pick in the end zone.
Tampa marched 80 yards (with the help of some highly questionable penalties) for the go-ahead score after that interception.
Winstons next two interceptions were harder to square. Two plays after the Buccaneers touchdown, he fired high and wide of Juwan Johnson on an out-breaking route. The throw was nowhere close, which led me to wonder whether Johnson ran the wrong route or Winston was expecting him to be somewhere else.
On that play, both Jarvis Landry and Olave ran vertical. Johnson, in the slot to their right, snapped off his route near the first-down marker 15 yards downfield, making a 90-degree cut toward the sideline. Winston threw it as if Johnson was running a corner route, sailing it over the tight ends head and allowing Dean to make a diving interception.
Making matters worse, Winston appeared to have Michael Thomas wide open underneath the Tampa zone, an easy pitch and catch that would have, at least, set up a manageable third down. The Buccaneers took the ball on a short field and kicked a 47-yard field goal after a three-and-out.
Finally, there was the dagger with 4:26 to go and the Saints in Tampa territory when Winston threw a pick-six to Mike Edwards. Winston targeted Landry, who was running a curl route from the slot, but he didnt see Edwards creeping up from the safety position. Winstons throw leaked toward the middle of the field, giving Edwards an easy play on the ball.
It was a first-down play, and the Saints were on Tampas side of the 50 and needing two scores. Even a perfect throw on that last interception would have been dangerous, and Winston had a wide-open option underneath in Tony Jones. Admittedly, its nitpicking in hindsight, but these are precisely the kinds of mistakes that got Winston in trouble when he was Tampas starting quarterback.
Four Saints turnovers in 10 plays resulting in 17 fourth-quarter points for Tampa. The only turnover that didnt net points for the Bucs took a highly likely score off the board for New Orleans. Thats the glaring difference in a game the Saints lost by 10.
More here:
Anatomy of a collapse: How the Saints handed the Buccaneers the win in a span of 10 plays - NOLA.com
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