Washington The nations health care spending will jump by 6.1 percent next year as the big coverage expansion in President Barack Obamas overhaul kicks in, government experts predicted Wednesday.

Thats more than 2 percentage points higher than the growth rate forecast for this year, and compares with a growth rate that has hovered under 4 percent, historically low, for the past four years.

Much of the increase projected for next year is attributed to the new health care program, which is expected to provide insurance coverage to millions of currently uninsured Americans beginning Jan. 1.

Without it, the estimated growth would be 4.5 percent, according to the report Wednesday from Medicares Office of the Actuary. The findings were published online by the journal Health Affairs.

Other factors driving up spending include an improving economy and the aging of the nations population.

Over the longer term, the health care overhaul would only be a modest contributor to spending increases, the report said. From 2012 to 2022, the new law is projected to add about 0.1 percent to average annual health spending growth.

In all, Obamas plan will add $621 billion to health care spending over that 10-year period, while expanding coverage to some 30 million uninsured people, experts said.

Some 11 million people are expected to gain health insurance coverage in 2014, mostly through new state insurance markets the law sets up or through expanded eligibility for Medicaid, the federal-state insurance program for low-income people.

Medicaid enrollment alone is expected to increase by 8.7 million people next year.

Many of the newly insured are expected to be younger and healthier. Theyre expected to devote a larger share of their health care spending to prescription drugs and physician and clinical services and a smaller share to hospital spending.

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Feds predict health care spending to rise 6.1% next year