By Clifford F. Thies

In post 1-19 America, (Scott Brown Massachusetts Miracle), anything seems possible, including - in particular - a Republican winning a Senate race in Indiana. Well ... not according to CQ. CQ continues to say Bayh's Senate seat is safe. And, overall, CQ is pointing to a net GOP pick-up of only two Senate seats.

A just-released Rasmussen Poll in the Indiana Senate race puts Congressman Pence ahead of Senator Bayh by 3 points, and puts former Congressman Hostettler behind Bayh by 3 points. This looks more like a toss-up state than a safe one.

So, how does the GOP get to a net pick-up of nine? Let's start with the two seats even the braniacs at CQ concede Republicans look to pick-up, viz., Delaware and North Dakota. CQ's thinking is that the retirement of Senator Dorgan and the declining of Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (as in, the son of VP Biden) to jump into the race are the reason the Republicans are favored. Wrong! CQ is confusing the effect with the cause. Dorgan and Biden recognized they would be swimming upstream and that's why they removed themselves from these two contests.

Now, let's look at the four Democrat seats that CQ is calling "toss-up." In Arkansas, Colorado and Nevada, Senators Reid, Bennett and Blanched-Lincoln have been repeatedly shown to be behind Republican challengers by up to double-digits. Oh, I forget, the election is months away and anything can happen. Such as ... these races could become competitive. But, unless and until such a thing happens, these seats are ours, baby. As for Illinois, CQ is calling it a toss-up because of the wide-open contest within the Democratic Party. Certainly, a primary adds an element of uncertainty to a race. But, as for right now, you've got to think the Republicans with the strong candidate that they have must be looking to the general election with some anticipation.

We now look at the one Democrat seat that CQ says merely "leans" Democrat. Pennsylvania features a cross-over Democrat, Arlen Specter, who faces a potentially fratricidal primary, and a solid Republican opponent. Toss-up would seem more appropriate.

There are two Democrat seats that CQ tabs as "likely" Democrat. In California, Senator Boxer has been consistently 3 points or more ahead of Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell. This seems more like "leans" than "likely." In Connecticut, Senator Dodd has been persuaded to quit while he was behind in the polls, and his apparent successor state Attorney General Blumenthal enjoys a Martha Coaxley-type 30-point lead.

We now look at two other Democrat seats that CQ rates as "safe." New York, it was thought, might be competitive if Rudy Giuliani challenged Senator Gillibrand. And, Rudy bested her in a number of hypothetical match-ups. But, Hizzoner said he wasn't going to run for the seat. But, wait, former Governor Pataki is now looking strong in the polls. So, maybe all is not lost. Washington state may be another state thought to be safe seat where the Republicans have a chance.

So, as I see it, in terms of pick-up opportunities, Republicans look good in five states (ND, DE, NV, AR, CO), are even-steven in three (IL, IN and PA), and have a good chance albeit are the underdogs in three (CA, NY and WA). Of course, we need to hold onto each of our seats, including, in particular, MO, OH, and NH (which I rate as toss-up, toss-up and leans Republican).

The thing is, these Senate races are not "independent events." They will tend to break one way or the other. Candidate recruitment, fundraising and other such "inside stuff" will impact certain races. More importantly, continued double-digit unemployment rates and the start of what might turn into a hyperinflation will continue to shift the numbers strongly toward the Republicans.