ANN ARBOR, Mich.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

An article just published in the New England Journal of Medicine indicates that a downward bend in the health care cost curve is not simply the result of the recession which began in December 2007, and the subsequent weak recovery.

The analysis, conducted by Altarum Institutes Center for Sustainable Health Spending, shows that excess growth in health spending, defined relative to growth in potential gross domestic product (GDP), moderated in 2005, more than two years prior to the start of the Great Recession.

The full article is available at http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1205958

Charles Roehrig, director of the Center and the studys lead author, suggested that this finding should be of considerable interest to policymakers looking for viable approaches to controlling the nations spending and resultant debt. Excess growth in personal health care spending averaged only 0.5 percent during the two and a half years leading up to the recession, compared to 1.9 percent excess spending growth in the prior period. Understanding the causal factors behind this downward trend in 2005 which we know cannot be attributed to the recession is critical to crafting sustainable fiscal policies for the future, Roehrig said.

Altarums Center for Sustainable Health Spending tracks and analyzes health spending growth in the United States and issues three monthly Health Sector Economic Indicators briefs that assess data on health sector employment, spending and prices/utilization.

The Center is currently working on a more thorough analysis of the factors that lie behind the 2005 bend. Roehrig noted that examining what happened leading up to 2005 will enable improved projections of future growth trends, and suggest better cost containment strategies.

Altarum Institute (www.altarum.org) integrates objective research and client-centered consulting skills to deliver comprehensive, systems-based solutions that improve health and health care. Altarum employs more than 400 individuals and is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Mich., with additional offices in the Washington, D.C., area; Sacramento, Calif.; Atlanta, Ga.; Portland, Maine; and San Antonio, Texas.

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Downward Bend in Health Care Cost Curve Pre-Dates 2007 Recession