A scorched Dragon capsule swooped from the heavens on Aug. 2 to restore Americas prominence in human spaceflight. Tucked safely inside were two NASA astronauts and one giant piece of baggage for the U.S.-Russia relationship:

Both countries now have a ride to the International Space Station.

This station has housed Americans and Russians, living and working side by side, for nearly two decades. But for the past nine years, Russia alone could fly people there. Its pride and budget were bolstered by the U.S. purchasing rides into space.

No longer. As the U.S. resumes launching astronauts from its own soil an ability it does not wish to lose again policy experts are watching to see if this affects the countries relationship.

On HoustonChronicle.com: NASA, SpaceX bring astronauts home in Gulf of Mexico splashdown

Through their civil space programs, Americans and Russians have sidestepped election meddling and economic sanctions to cooperate on a greater good. This relationship has helped bridge the two cultures, with astronauts learning Russian and cosmonauts visiting their counterparts homes in Houston.

Its one of the few areas that have been somewhat immune to the tensions that we see in other areas and domains, said Gregory Miller, an associate professor at the U.S. Air Forces Air Command and Staff College at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama. If you take that away or reduce that cooperation, its just one less restraint on further tensions.

To be clear, Miller does not think the U.S. launching astronauts will start a war. Victoria Samson, a space policy expert at the Secure World Foundation, similarly called it a ripple in our relations but not necessarily a catastrophic tidal wave.

NASA said its in active discussions to fly cosmonauts on U.S. spacecraft owned by SpaceX (and later Boeing) and to continue flying astronauts on Russian spacecraft. Its important to have people on both the U.S. and Russian segments of the International Space Station.

Building on our solid relationship with Roscosmos aboard the International Space Station in low-Earth orbit, Im hopeful there are opportunities for NASA and Roscosmos to expand our collaboration farther into the solar system, including the moon, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said in a statement.

But Samson and others said the introduction of commercial companies makes Russia uncomfortable. And with NASA no longer buying seats on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft, its Roscosmos space agency loses an important source of funding for its space budget thats already a fraction of what NASA receives.

For now, Russia and the U.S. remain interdependent on the International Space Station. But this station will eventually get retired it's set to operate through 2024, though that will likely be extended leaving a big question as to what U.S.-Russian relations will look like once astronauts and cosmonauts no longer share a home some 250 miles above Earth.

The SpaceX Crew Dragon didnt just revive U.S. human spaceflight. It introduced a new partner: SpaceX founder Elon Musk, an outspoken billionaire who is eager to show that commercial entities can build, own and operate the vehicles that carry people into space.

On May 30, the day SpaceX launched NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley, Musk couldnt help but take a jab at Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Roscosmos.

The trampoline is working, he said.

It was the punchline six years in the making: Rogozin, upset about U.S. sanctions in 2014, suggested that Americans use a trampoline to reach the space station.

Musk called his comment an inside joke, and Rogozin initially said he loved it. He congratulated NASA on the launch.

But a few days later, he released a lengthy op-ed in which he criticized the space shuttle (its 2011 retirement began U.S. dependence on Russias Soyuz spacecraft) for its immense costliness and unforgiveable failure rate. He touted Russia in the piece that ran in Forbes for staying alone for the humanity to support the International Space Station operability and deliver the crews there.

And he did not appreciate the humor.

When our partners finally managed to carry out a successful test of their spacecraft, we didn't get anything but jokes and mockery, Rogozin said, although it would not be out of place to thank our Soyuz, its Soviet developers and Russian engineers who continued modernizing this most reliable spacecraft in the world. It would not be out of place to thank us that despite personal and sectoral sanctions we did not go to pieces and preserved cooperation in space.

Roscosmos did not respond to email requests for comment.

SpaceX, with its ability to replace the Soyuz, makes Russia uncomfortable because it threatens a pillar of Russias culture and identity, said Pavel Luzin, who lives in Perm, Russia, and has a doctorate in international relations. Luzin has studied space policy since 2008.

He said that for Russians, the space program is a yardstick they use to judge the countrys political and economic system if its doing well they view the government more favorably.

Thats why (the) Kremlin hates Elon Musk: he shows that the freedom of business activity, the market economy and the political freedoms are much more effective, Luzin said in an email. Therefore, Dmitry Rogozin in his papers and interviews tries to belittle Musks achievements and tries to show that private investments of SpaceX and other commercial space companies are nothing without huge spending of the American government.

Russia has long been opposed to a commercial space sector; a sentiment first voiced by the former Soviet Union when drafting the Outer Space Treaty that provided a framework for governing the exploration and use of space.

This treaty was signed in 1967 after the Soviet Union placed the first satellite and man into space in 1957 and 1961, respectively, and before the U.S. put the first man on the moon in 1969.

At that time, the Soviet Union did not want the private sector operating in space, but allowed for a compromise: Governments would be responsible for overseeing any non-government entities.

The relationship slowly moved from competitive to cooperative cosmonauts and astronauts shook hands in space in 1975 but had its ups and downs. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, former President George H. W. Bush was looking for new ways to collaborate.

Space was an obvious area, said John Logsdon, a retired professor and founder of George Washington Universitys Space Policy Institute. And in particular, the Russians needed money.

On HoustonChronicle.com: International Space Station: an orbiting home and lab for two decades

The U.S. didnt want Russia selling its technology or having its rocket workforce moving to Iran or North Korea, Logsdon said, so America began allowing commercial satellites to launch on Russian rockets.

And then Russia proposed merging its plans for a next-generation space station with Americas plans for Space Station Freedom. Around that time, Russia had more experience operating space stations than NASA.

The Russians involvement in the program was a major factor in order to be successful in the International Space Station, said George W.S. Abbey, senior fellow in space policy at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and a former director of NASAs Johnson Space Center.

Also important was the countrys tried-and-true Soyuz rocket and spacecraft.

Todays Soyuz-2 rocket (which shares the same name as the spacecraft it propels into space) can directly trace its lineage to the rocket that launched the Sputnik satellite in 1957, said Phil Smith, a space industry analyst at Bryce Space and Technology.

The R-7 intercontinental ballistic missile has been the basis for 25 variants of the Soyuz rocket that have launched more than 1,900 times.

Its a workhorse, Smith said. Its one of the most successful rockets ever built.

There is no equivalent track record in America, he said, as modern rockets dont trace their lineage directly back to the early days of space exploration.

Its the future priorities of Russias civil space program that are being questioned. Russia says its building a vehicle to replace the Soyuz spacecraft that has had some 170 successful flights, as well as additional modules for the International Space Station, but both projects are underfunded and behind schedule.

There have been lots of proclamations of Russian future plans, Logsdon said, but not much evidence that theyre following through on those proclamations.

Luzin said Russias focus on maintaining access to the International Space Station, which Roscosmos did without placing enough emphasis on a long-term strategy for space exploration, has weakened its position. As the U.S. develops a new spacecraft, rocket and orbiting facility for the moon, Russia will have little to offer in a partnership, Luzin said.

It was unable to use these years for developing its own manned spacecraft and launch vehicle for replacement of the old-fashioned Soyuz, he said. The main issue in U.S.-Russia relations in space now is how to continue the partnership after the ISS-era.

Its lesser budget doesnt help, either. Based off budget documents and his own analysis, Luzin said Russias space budget was roughly $3.2 billion last year. Of that, $1.4 billion was for the countrys civil space program, $1 billion was for its military space program, $437 million was for its global navigation satellite system and $358 million was for its rocket launch sites.

For comparison, NASAs budget was $21.5 billion in fiscal year 2019. Its more than $22.6 billion for the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.

In the fall of 2019 and spring of 2020, NASA paid nearly $86 million for each astronaut launched into space (Jessica Meir in September and Chris Cassidy in April). The agency will pay $90.3 million to launch Kate Rubins in October, a fee that also covers training and other services related to launch.

The American payments were highly important for Russias space industry and for Russias civil space program, Luzin said, and now the industry lost the source.

Samson said U.S.-Russia cooperation doesnt have to be in human spaceflight. The countries could partner on science missions, or they could share information for tracking satellites and space debris.

Ultimately, the money NASA saves by flying with commercial companies could be put toward its Artemis program seeking to return humans to the moon. Houston, the home of human spaceflight, would certainly benefit from this, said Bob Mitchell, president of the Bay Area Houston Economic Partnership.

It potentially equates to additional people working, he said.

On HoustonChronicle.com: NASA shares its vision for creating sustained human presence on the moon

Miller suggested the U.S. use the money its saving to help subsidize another countrys space program.

He said providing funding for another country, for instance the United Arab Emirates, to fly on the Soyuz would help keep Russias space program funded, preventing its knowledge and technology from being sold to more adversarial countries, while developing U.S. ties with a new international space partner.

We dont want to sever ties in space or do anything that might reduce cooperation when there is this other competitor, for lack of a better term, he said.

That other competitor is China. In June, the U.S. Department of Defense said China and Russia present the most immediate and serious threats to U.S. space operations as they develop counterspace capabilities which may disrupt, degrade or destroy space systems and have military doctrines that view space as import to modern warfare.

Samson said she doesnt think Russia and China will get too cozy as partners in space. Like the U.S. and Russia, the two countries have their own complicated relationship. Rather, she said Chinas rise in space capabilities means there are more players that make the U.S. uneasy (in space and elsewhere) that America now has to monitor and manage relationships with in space.

The biggest thing thats changed since the cold war is that this is no longer a bilateral conversation, Samson said. Its multi-lateral.

andrea.leinfelder@chron.com

twitter.com/a_leinfelder

More here:

Space race? America's new path to the ISS could affect relationship with Russia - Houston Chronicle