Boris Johnsons promise of lucrative post-Brexit trade deals as the UK takes back control of its rules is on course to fail, a study warns today.
Three years have been wasted failing to agree what Britain wants from its negotiations, the Institute for Government finds handing the advantage to countries on the other side of table.
It means the controversy over the US demand to sell its chlorinated chicken which has stalled a deal with Washington will be repeated, its report concludes.
Sharing the full story, not just the headlines
The think tank criticises the unforced error of launching into complex trade talks before ministers have decided what they want their post-Brexit regulations to be.
Three years ago, we warned that the government had not set up the necessary structures for effective decision making on key trade policy issues, said Maddy Thimont Jack, a senior researcher.
The government did not heed that warning then, but it now needs to move urgently to put them in place. Otherwise it will find itself losing control of trade and regulatory policy to better-prepared partners.
The criticism comes as trade talks with the EU remain deadlocked because the government cannot agree its future state aid rules and needs to satisfy Brussels fears of undercutting.
Hopes of a deal with the US this year have been abandoned and even a revamped deal with Japan has run into trouble, in a row over access for UK agricultural products.
Notoriously, Brexit-backing Conservatives claimed it would be easy to strike numerous lucrative deals with other countries, once the UK was free to negotiate alone.
A referendum is held on Britain's membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving
AFP via Getty
David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU
Getty
Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out
Getty
The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process
The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum
Getty
Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country
Getty
After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily
AFP/Getty
David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point
AFP/Getty
The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a 'meaningful vote' on the deal
Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary
Reuters
The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain's divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest
Getty
After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns
Reuters
Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government
Getty
Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK's agreed departure date of 31 October.
Stephen Morgan MP
The High Court rules that Johnson's prorogation of parliament is 'unlawful' after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller
Getty
Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar - making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers
Getty
As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum
Getty
The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda
Getty
The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124
Getty
Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain's departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne
AFP/Getty
A referendum is held on Britain's membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving
AFP via Getty
David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU
Getty
Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out
Getty
The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process
The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum
Getty
Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country
Getty
After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily
AFP/Getty
David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point
AFP/Getty
The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a 'meaningful vote' on the deal
Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary
Reuters
The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain's divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest
Getty
After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns
Reuters
Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government
Getty
Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK's agreed departure date of 31 October.
Stephen Morgan MP
The High Court rules that Johnson's prorogation of parliament is 'unlawful' after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller
Getty
Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar - making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers
Getty
As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum
Getty
The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda
Getty
The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124
Getty
Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain's departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne
AFP/Getty
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself, Mr Johnson said before the 2016 referendum. I think there is a huge opportunity. Do free trade deals, believe in ourselves.
The latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox
In fact, a deal with the US, even if it can be struck, would add only 0.2 per cent to GDP in the long run, the Treasury has estimated and a continued deal with Tokyo only 0.07 per cent.
The IfG study, Trade and Regulation after Brexit, says it will be impossible to marry the desire for a clutch of new agreements and for regulatory autonomy because a weakened UK will be told to change its standards in return.
It warns ministers that the UK:
* Could easily fall victim to other nations threatening to collapse the talks if they do not get what they want.
* Will be vulnerable to challenge at the World Trade Organisation, if its currently dysfunctional dispute system becomes operational again.
* Has failed to agree its stance on key regulatory issues, which risks it being pushed into making concessions it shouldnt.
* Risks damaging the union, unless it can reach agreement with the other UK nations, which are responsible for implementing trade deals and could choose not to
More here:
Brexit: Boris Johnsons promise of lucrative trade deals in trouble, study warns - The Independent
- Government should stop grandstanding over Brexit | London Business News - London Loves Business [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit: EU Trade Talks Could Collapse in June over Fishing, Regulations - Breitbart [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- How Kronborg Castle helped to inspire Shakespeare | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Extending the Brexit transition period - Third Force News [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Theres something common in reactions to Ranbir Kapoors jeans, Brexit and Khan Market gang - ThePrint [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson's perversity on the Brexit cliff edge reminds me of the Free State's rejection of all things British - Slugger O'Toole [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Who is on the BBC's Question Time tonight? | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Priti Patel allies to 'demand apology' over bullying allegations | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Post-Brexit carte system 'will be easy', France says - The Connexion [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit does not belong to one party, and Labour must play its part - LabourList [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- EU free trade deal with Mexico (started at same time as Brexit) is AGREED - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson must extend Brexit talks for another YEAR, major Tory Party donor demands - Express [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- DAVID EDGERTON: Where Brexit and Covid-19 collide | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- SNP warn of 'chilling prospect' of no-deal Brexit as UK Gov won't extend talks - The Scotsman [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Campaigners file case that argues EU citizenship is permanent regardless of Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris gives green light for Brexit Britain to start formal US trade talks NEXT WEEK - Express [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- UK seeks access to EU health cooperation in light of coronavirus - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- UK will need to extend Brexit transition, Merkel ally warns Britain - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Tory MP David Davis urges government capitalise on coronavirus outbreak to seal a Brexit deal | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit trade deal WILL be struck this year say UK negotiators - but only after EU tantrum - Express [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- British lawyer sues EU over her removal from its court due to Brexit - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Coronavirus: We are all paying the price for the Tory government's preoccupation with Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Row over EU office in Belfast threatens to derail Brexit talks - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- WATCH: Gina Miller meets online troll who sent hateful, racist and threatening messages over Brexit - The New European [Last Updated On: May 15th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 15th, 2020]
- It's 10 years since the Lib Dem-Tory austerity coalition birthed Brexit and our brutal tribalism - Nation.Cymru [Last Updated On: May 15th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 15th, 2020]
- It's crazy for UK to go ahead with Brexit given pandemic crisis - Yorkshire Post [Last Updated On: May 15th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 15th, 2020]
- Paul Routledge: Tories want us to forget Brexit and crash out - Mirror Online [Last Updated On: May 15th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 15th, 2020]
- Theresa May humiliation: Ex-PM's grovelling plea to union bosses amid Brexit vote exposed - Express [Last Updated On: May 15th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 15th, 2020]
- Brexit: don't extend the transition period - TheArticle [Last Updated On: May 15th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 15th, 2020]
- Brexit Blog: Crucial Times Ahead - Will the Gap Narrow Between the Sides as Negotiations Continue - Government, Public Sector - Ireland - Mondaq News... [Last Updated On: May 15th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 15th, 2020]
- Northern Ireland facing 'challenge of a generation' as it confronts Brexit and Covid-19, says accountants society's new boss - Belfast Telegraph [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Nissan chief says firm is monitoring Brexit negotiations and warns on tariffs - Chronicle Live [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Ireland as a seat for International Arbitration Bost-Brexit - Lexology [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Boris Johnson told to 'stop playing political games' with millions of citizens - The Parliament Magazine [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit Party took almost 2 million in donations in first quarter of 2020 - The New European [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- The Brexit Crisis Led to Totally Incompetent Leadership at a Time of Unprecedented Calamity. Now We are Paying for It - CounterPunch [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- North-east skipper Jimmy Buchan warns no-deal Brexit 'will hurt' Scottish fishing industry - Press and Journal [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Boris Johnson wants to 'fix' Brexit deal he once claimed was 'oven-ready' - The New European [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Claim that extending the Brexit transition period could cost 380 billion is not credible - Full Fact [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit: NI Assembly votes to extend transition period - BBC News [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit shock: How tensions between USA and China may affect UK's trade options - Express [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- The car industry now: will Brexit's impact now be even greater? - Autocar [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- EU crisis: Brexit risks bloc's 'economic threat' crumbling - 'We should leave too!' - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Brexiteer called out for claiming Brexit Party was 'most diverse' in European Parliament - The New European [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Nissan comes out of lockdown and braces for Brexit - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- The pandemic is being used as cover for a no-deal Brexit - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit Britain has a much better alternative than the EU: Canzuk - Telegraph.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit deal now unlikely without extension, and time is running out - Verdict [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Britain wants to reinvent UK-China relations in the Brexit age - Quartz [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- Brexit has reopened a divide within the Tories that cannot be bridged - Telegraph.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 9th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 9th, 2020]
- TCW's Brexit Watch: Will Johnson cave in a second time? - The Conservative Woman [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Britain, EU need Brexit agreement in the autumn - Merkel - Reuters UK [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Westminster's actions mean devolved governments have had 'no meaningful input' in Brexit trade talks - Press and Journal [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit Britain is forced to confront its inglorious past - The Star Online [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- EU 'terrified' of successful UK 'on its doorstep' says Widdecombe in brutal Brexit warning - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Letter: Brexit extension would be a leap in the dark - East London and West Essex Guardian Series [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Macron to discuss Brexit with Johnson on London visit - RTE.ie [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- EU FURY: Macron unleashes new Brexit threat in bid to force through 750billion bailout - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit news: What would ending the transition period with no deal really mean? - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Covid-19 and Brexit: Contrasting sectoral impacts on the UK | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal - voxeu.org [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit and coronavirus are stoking the fires of Welsh nationalism - The New European [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- After Brexit: Will the U.S.-UK Deal Get Tariffs Down to Zero? - Yahoo News [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Brexit victory: Macron WILL cave to UK fishing stance by autumn - but there is a catch - Express [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Its official: U.K. wont require an extension of Brexit talks, even as negotiations with EU hit gridlock - MarketWatch [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- With Brexit Trade Talks at an Impasse, Boris Johnson Finally Engages - The New York Times [Last Updated On: June 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 21st, 2020]
- Johnson & Brexit Patronising Etonian Alienates the World Byline Times - Byline Times [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Unions Warn Trump and Brexit May Smash the Scottish Whisky Industry - Gizmodo UK [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit risk to waste and resources increasing, says Greener UK - Resource Magazine [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Covid and Brexit the challenges that face new FCA boss Nikhil Rathi - Belfast Telegraph [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Northern Irish firms to be reimbursed for tariffs if Brexit talks fail - Tina Massey [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Unpopular fund sector trumps UK funds four years on from Brexit vote - Money Observer [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Post-Brexit and what it means for your intellectual property rights - Intellectual Property - UK - Mondaq News Alerts [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit revives unionist and nationalist divide in Northern Ireland - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Boris to take on EU's Galileo with BETTER system US could join 'we have an opportunity' - Express [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- France does not rule out a post Brexit no deal with UK, but those who need it most are the British - MercoPress [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson news live: PM given fresh no-deal Brexit warnings, as No 10 puts full confidence in under-pressure minister - The Independent [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit victory: Richard Tice reveals the 'huge opportunity' ahead for fishing and farming - Express [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- Brexit: Why hopes are rising that EU and UK could find compromise - Financial Times [Last Updated On: June 22nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 22nd, 2020]
- A new CEO, Brexit and supply-side exposure may leave Wipros Q1 earnings more dented than others - Business Insider India [Last Updated On: July 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: July 13th, 2020]
- UK Government 'planning to withhold power from Scotland after Brexit transition' - HeraldScotland [Last Updated On: July 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: July 13th, 2020]