There is an alleyway of sorts developing near the U.S. east coast/far W. Atlantic. A more organized Isaias seems to now be sniffing out that alley lending confidence to the more north & east solution in the long run. The approaching upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S. should help eventually steer Isaias north then northeast. The trough may help with the upper level ventilation of the storm negating some of the effects of potential low level shear while along or near the east coast & Isaias may undergo a period of fairly solid intensification through the weekend/early next week as indicated by some models..... &, therefore, be even stronger - at times - than a Cat. 1 hurricane. However, there may also be some land interaction - especially on the west side of the circulation - over the weekend during the close approach to SE Florida. The GFS model has recently come in stronger as has the operational European & UKMET models & generally agree on a painfully close approach to SE Fl. while turning north then well east of Jacksonville. The GFS remains decidedly faster (by 12+ hours) than either the European or UKMET models. A compromise between all three is the prudent route at this juncture & probably will end up closest to reality. Of note... the UKMET showing a ricochet-effect by sort of bouncing Isaias off the SE coast of Fl. then abruptly turning N/NE. The combination of frictional effects from land + the approaching trough make such an outcome plausible. Either way, the eye of Isaias looks to stay well east of Jacksonville in the long run.

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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Isaias near & over the Bahamas through Friday night & very close to Florida ov - ActionNewsJax.com