I have been scrupulous about protecting myself from COVID-19. Mostly staying home, masking-up on those rare occasions when I have ventured out, hand-washing like an OCD patient, keeping social distance from friends and family. You know the drill.

Four-plus months of this, however, have begun to take their toll. Maintaining my physical health has started to do a job on my mental health. Some days I feel like Robinson Crusoe before Friday showed up.

I began thinking about the odds of my actually contracting COVID-19 and whether it might be OK to modify my routine a little. My thoughts turned to the evolutionary biologist, Stephen Jay Gould. In his 1996 book "Full House," Gould describes his reaction to being diagnosed with mesothelioma. He was in his early 40s at the time (1982). He knew the median survival for his type of cancer was just eight months, but he also knew that measures of central tendency like medians dont capture range or individual variation.

The median is the halfway point. Half of people with mesothelioma, he observed, may die within eight months, but the other half will live longer and some will live significantly longer. Gould assessed his personal odds of survival to be well above average. He was young, had been diagnosed early and had access to exceptional medical care. He lived another 20 years.

With Gould in mind, I started researching the average risk related to COVID-19. I know that we are safer living in Maine than we would be in Texas, Florida or Arizona. I also know that the risk of dying from COVID-19 is greater for people older than I and for those living in institutional settings. I began to wonder what other variables might affect personal risk. I came to understand that each persons risk is different from every other persons risk because risk hinges on a combination of factors particular to each of us.

You might start by determining the basic risk. The Cleveland Clinic has developed a tool to help you. Research conducted in Cleveland has shown that the risk of a positive result is lower, for example, for people who have received their pneumococcal vaccine or their influenza vaccination. Ive had both. Lower risk for me. Its also lower for people who take certain medications like ACE Inhibitors, which I dont take. Higher risk for me there.

You can access the Clinics online survey at riskcalc.org. On the site you enter your age, race, ethnicity, gender, zip code, medical history, etc. Press the "run calculator" button and the algorithm spits out your odds of testing positive for COVID-19. The Clinic makes clear that their tool is not intended for medical advice.

When I took the survey, I found my risk of getting a positive test was just under 7.5% or about 1 in 13. This is much higher than the odds of being struck by lightening but a lot less than dying of coronary artery disease.

My relatively low level of risk made me curious about how the other factors identified in the Cleveland tool influence risk. I started playing around with the calculator. All other things being equal: what if I were a woman? Lower risk. What if I were Black or Hispanic? Higher risk. This underscores the central point: even though our collective risks are related, your risk is not my risk.

While I can calculate my own risk of contracting COVID-19, I have no way of knowing what yours might be. Only narcissists, fools or villains would dispense with all precautions just because their personal risk is low. What about the other guy?

Were all trying to find ways to live in relative safety. People have got to live their lives, but we can do that and still protect ourselves as well as those around us who are at greater risk from COVID-19. Go ahead and participate in lower-risk activities like cycling, going to the beach and al fresco dining, but think twice about higher risk activities like amusement parks, bar hopping and flying across country.

It is possible to protect your physical health without losing a grip on your mental health. Just dont throw all caution to the wind. By wearing a face covering in public, following the 6-foot rule and washing your hands, you can reduce the risk of infection for everyone.

Ron McAllister is a sociologist and writer who lives in York.

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