by Clifford F. Thies

Suddenly the election in New Zealand is tightening. This tightening, combined with the prospect of NZ First hitting the 5 percent threshold and returning to parliament, has put National into something of a predicament.

Given current projections, National continues to expect an absolute majority of the seats in parliament, albeit a lesser majority than a month ago.

But, National's erstwhile coalition partner ACT, a market-liberal party, does not look as though it will gain representation in parliament either by reason of hitting the 5 percent threshold or finishing first in at least one constituency, without some help.

Crucially, according to one just conducted poll, ACT's candidate for the seat representing Epsom currently trails the National candidate. But, that same poll reveals there would be a dramatic shift if Prime Minister John Key were to asked National supporters to vote for the ACT candidate. In such a case, the ACT candidate would be assured of victory, which would secure at least 3 additional seats for the center-right.

Asked if he would give ACT this lifeline, Prime Minister Key said "not today".