The reopening and relaxing of social distancing restrictions in some states may be contributing to the first noticeable nationwide increase in coronavirus fatalities since April, when the pandemic initially peaked.

The number of cases in late June surged higher than during the outbreaks first peak. At this same time, daily Covid-19 fatalities decreased slightly, leading President Trump to proclaim that deaths were way down. But that divergence may have come to an end last week, when the average number of new deaths per day began steadily rising again.

Where deaths have increased since June 1

Daily new deaths since June 1

States where deaths have increased since June 1

Daily new deaths since June 1, seven-day average

Note: Data as of July 15.

Public health experts have pointed to a few factors that help explain why the death count was initially flat. Treatment has improved and young people, who are less likely to die from Covid-19, make up a larger share of new cases.

Additionally, more widespread testing means cases are caught sooner, on average. That means that the lag between diagnosis and death would be longer than in March, when tests were in critically short supply.

That lag may have come to an end last week, as the number of new deaths began to rise. Many of the states that reopened early are the ones seeing the biggest increases, while New York, the countrys hardest-hit city, has seen a 64 percent drop since June 1.

Deaths in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

Deaths in rest of the United States

While the growth rate of new deaths has flattened slightly in the past few days, data suggest that the recent increase in deaths may continue. Most of the states seeing the sharpest increase in deaths also have some of the countrys highest positive test rates, as well as soaring hospitalization rates, an indicator that many more residents may be gravely ill.

In addition, a high share of positive tests most likely signals that there are a larger number of people whose infections are going undetected in a states official numbers.

Sources: New York Times database from state and local governments; the Covid-19 Tracking ProjectNote: Data is as of July 15, 2020. States listed above have a minimum of 100 cumulative deaths. Positive test rates are calculated using positive results from July 2 to July 15. Trend lines and new deaths per million show seven-day average data.

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After the Recent Surge in Coronavirus Cases, Deaths Are Now Rising Too - The New York Times