“Is Evolution Predictable?” asks a piece in Science. Here’s the first paragraph:

If one could rewind the history of life, would the same species appear with the same sets of traits? Many biologists have argued that evolution depends on too many chance events to be repeatable. But a new study investigating evolution in three groups of microscopic worms, including the strain that survived the 2003 Columbia space shuttle crash, indicates otherwise. When raised in a lab under crowded conditions, all three underwent the same shift in their development by losing basically the same gene. The work suggests that, to some degree, evolution is predictable.

The “some degree” part is the catch. I’m a big fan of general ideas, but the more I learn about evolution the more suspicious I become of broad truths. A given dynamic often has some degree of validity, but extending it too far leads to error or confusion in innumerable specific cases. Evolution may be the most robust and powerful theory for deductive inference in biology, but even here rationalism has its limits. For example, before the rise of molecular methods in exploring polymorphism the debates ...