Ex-Liberal MPs running in next election eagerly await start of nomination process – The Hill Times

With the Liberals in majority territory in public opinion polls, some Liberal MPs who lost the last election are eagerly awaiting the start of nomination contests that will give them a chance to reclaim their seats.

In interviews with The Hill Times, some former Liberal MPs said nominations for unheld ridingsthose currently occupied by MPs from other partieswill likely start after the Liberal Partys biennial convention, which is scheduled to run between Nov.12 and Nov. 15 in Ottawa. They said the nominations contests were originally planned for March, but were delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The latest update that Ive been able to get is that they may start looking around when our national convention is going to be, which is after Remembrance Day this year, so sort of mid-to-late November, said former Liberal MP John Aldag, who represented the riding of Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C. from 2015-2019, but lost the last election to Conservative MP Tamara Jensen by a margin of 2.5 per cent of the vote. Ms. Jensen won 20,937 votes, Mr. Aldag 19,542, NDP candidate Rae Banwarie received 10,508 votes, and Green Party candidate Caelum Nutbrown garnered 3,572 votes.

In 2015, Mr. Aldag had carried the riding by a margin of 11 per cent of the vote over Conservative candidate Dean Drysdale. That year, Justin Trudeaus (Papineau, Que.) Liberals won a majority government with 184 seats. They were reduced to a minority in 2019, ending up with 157 of the total 338 seats. The Conservatives won 121, the Bloc 32, the NDP 24, the Greens three, and one Independent MP was elected.

In a minority government, an election could happen at any time if the governing party loses a vote of confidence. In comparison, under majority governments the dates of elections are fixed in advance.

In minority governments, political parties try to nominate their candidates sooner rather than later, given the inherent unpredictability of how long a government will last. Early nominations give nominated candidates more time to campaign, gain name recognition, raise funds, and develop contacts in communities in their ridings. The average life of a minority government in Canada is 18 months.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addressing the national Liberal caucus during the Jan. 23 winter caucus retreat. Recent polls showed the Liberals would win a majority government if an election were held at the time, but that was before the WE Charity scandal erupted last week. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

Even after losing the last election, Mr. Aldag said hes never discontinued his outreach with people living in the riding. He said he agrees with the partys decision not to call nomination contests when the country is dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, but he also said its always better if a politician can introduce themselves to voters as a partys nominated candidate as early as possible, rather than as someone who is seeking a nomination.

I am planning on putting my name forward again, and I know itd be a lot easier when we are able to start campaigning or getting out in public to actually be there as the candidate, as opposed to the person seeking the nomination, said Mr. Aldag.

They were originally looking, pre-COVID, at having some of the nominations starting by the end of March. COVID has changed all of that.

National public opinion polls taken not long before the WE Charity scandal erupted last week suggested that the Liberals would win a majority government if an election were held at the time. The numbers suggested that Canadians supported the way the Liberal government was managing the pandemic so far.

A Lger poll released last week suggested that if an election were to be called now, 39 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Liberal Party, 25 per cent Conservative Party, 20 per cent NDP, and five per cent for the Green Party.

The online poll of 1,517 Canadians was conducted between July 3 and July 5, and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

This would mean a marked increase in popularity for the Liberals compared to before the pandemic, when the Liberals and the Conservatives were in a statistical tie at 31 per cent and 32 per cent respectively, according to a Lger poll conducted on Jan. 22. The NDP support was at 19 per cent, and the Green Party at eight per cent.

It however remains to be seen if the WE Charity controversy will have any serious effect on the popularity of the Liberal Party. This is the first major ethics controversy that Mr. Trudeau has run into since the last federal election. During the last Parliament, his popularity was severely damaged by the SNC-Lavalin scandal and also his family and friends trip to the private Caribbean island of the Aga Khan, whose charity has received millions of dollars from the Canadian government.

The WE Charity controversy surrounds a now-cancelled, untendered $900-million contract to handle a student volunteer program that was handed to the charity. The Trudeau family is close to the WE Charity; Mr. Trudeau has volunteered for it in the past, his mother Margaret and brother Alexandre have received a total of about $300,000 over the years in speaking fees for WE Charity events, and his wife, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, is an official ambassador for the charity and hosts a podcast for it. She received a $1,500 honorarium for hosting a WE Charity event in 2012.

Late Friday, media reports indicated that Finance Minister Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre, Ont.) also did not recuse himself from cabinet approval of the WE Charity contract although two of his close family members have been directly involved with the charity, one as a contractual employee. The Conservatives have called on the RCMP to investigate the issue.

Mr. Trudeau has said the decision to award the contract for the Canada Student Service Grant to the WE Charity was made by public servants, but it was also approved by the cabinet, and Mr. Trudeau did not recuse himself from that decision.

Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion is currently investigating the scandal.

The Conservative Party announced its nomination rules for held ridings in April. A party spokesman told The Hill Times last week that nominations in unheld ridings will likely start for the Conservatives sometime after the party elects its new leader next month.

According to the Conservative Partys nomination rules for incumbent MPs, if an election were to be called between now and June 2021, all MPs would be acclaimed as partys candidates automatically. If an election is held after June of next year, Conservative MPs can still run unopposed without going through the nomination process if they raise $15,000 by Dec. 31, 2020.

Liberal delegates at the Halifax biennial convention. Liberal MP John Aldag says it appears the nomination process will start after the partys biennial convention in mid-November in Ottawa. The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Munster

If any Conservative MP is not able to meet the threshold by that deadline, they would have to then raise $25,000 by April 30, 2021. If an MP is not able to meet either of the two deadlines, they will have to earn their nomination through the regular nomination process.

Those fundraising thresholds are relatively low, and all Conservative MPs are expected to be acclaimed as party candidates for the next election.

Some Conservative sources told The Hill Times that the caucus had recommended that financial target as the only condition for qualification to carry the partys banner for the next election to the elected National Council, the 20-member governing body of the party. The council accepted it without any amendment.

Conservative MPs toldThe Hill Times in April that the COVID-19 pandemic is the reason the threshold is so low. Canadians are facing daunting economic and health challenges, and fundraising is going to be a challenge for politicians for at least for the next year or so.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Liberal Party told The Hill Times last week that the party is still in the process of consulting MPs and rank and file members about the nomination rules for held and unheld ridings. He did not say when the nomination contests would start.

Over the course of this year, weve been continuing to hear ideas from Liberal MPs, past candidates, EDAs, and registered Liberals across Canada on the best process to help elect even more Liberal MPs whenever the next campaign eventually arrives, wrote Braeden Caley, senior director of communications for the Liberal Party, in an email to The Hill Times. We anticipate those consultations being finalized shortly, andwell have more to share about the new nominations process in due course.

Liberal MP Dan Ruimy, who represented the riding of Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, B.C. from 2015 to 2019, but lost the election to Conservative MP Marc Dalton, said he is also planning on running in the next election, but does not know when the nomination contest will happen. Since the last election, Mr. Ruimy said, he has stayed in regular contact with people in the riding. In his conversations with constituents, Mr. Ruimy said he always asks what they think about the governments response to the pandemic, and so far he has received a positive feedback.

He said hes not worried about when the nomination contests will happen, but wants to ensure that hes ready whenever the contest is called.

We dont know when the next election is going to be: it could be two months from now, it could be two years from now, said Mr. Ruimy. So, I try not to worry about when thats gonna happen. Its more about making sure that Im ready for whenever it happens.

Mr. Ruimy won the 2015 election by a margin of only 2.4 percentage points. He won 17,673 votes, or 33.8 per cent of the total, compared to Conservative candidate Mike Murray, who won 16,373 votes, 31.4 per cent of the total. The NDP candidate Bob DEith received 15,450 votes, 29.6 percentage of the total; and the Green Party candidate Peter Tam won 2,202 votes, or 4.2 per cent of the total.

Mr. Ruimy lost the 2019 election by a margin of 6.5 per cent of the votes. In that election, Mr.Dalton garnered 19,650 votes, 36.2 per cent of the total. Mr. Ruimy won 16,125 votes, for 29.7 per cent of the total, while the NDPs Jack Mogk carried 12,958 votes or 23.9 per cent of the total, and the Green Partys Ariane Jaschke won 4,33 votes, eight per cent of the total.

Former Liberal MP Gordie Hogg, who represented the British Columbia riding of South Surrey-White Rock from 2017 to 2019, but lost the last election, said that his decision to run in the next election will depend on when the nextelection is called. He said if the election is called in the next year or so, he would run. Otherwise, he might not run. A former provincial cabinet minister, Mr. Hogg, who holds a PhD, said hes looking at some teaching opportunities at universities in British Columbia and other possibilities.

Ive been invited to do a number of things and participate in a number of boards in the community, said Mr. Hogg. So Ive been waiting to make some decisions on that and certainly the pandemic has made it a little more difficult to make decisions around that.

Mr. Hogg and other former MPs said early nominations would give more time to candidates to get ready for the election. They however also agree that the health consequences of the pandemic are preventing the party from nominating candidates.

Mr. Hogg, a former provincial MLA, won the riding in a 2017 byelection by a margin of 5.3 per cent of the votes. He won 47.4 per cent of the vote, while second place Conservative candidate Kerry-Lynne Findlay garnered 42.1 per cent of the vote. The third place NDP candidate Jonathan Silveira carried 4.8 per cent, and the Green candidate Larry Colero won 4.1 per cent of the vote.

In 2019, Ms. Findlay, a former Harper era cabinet minister, bested Mr. Hogg by a margin of 4.5 per cent of the votes. Ms. Findlay won 41.9 per cent of the votes, Mr. Hogg 37.4 per cent, NDP candidate Stephen Crozier 11.6 per cent, and the Green Party candidate Beverley Hobby won 7.7 per cent of the votes.

The Hill Times