COVID-19 is dividing the country in many dangerous even deadly ways and now, those divisions threaten to further stall urgently needed action. At a time when science and data must drive policy and we have seen that such policy works too many are instead dismissing facts and evidence to advance shortsighted goals. Americans are eager to get back to work, but only when we can do so safely, responsibly, and with the hopes of not having to shut down again.
The public debate at the moment is between those calling for ubiquitous testing (and Im among them) and those saying we cant do it or dont need to. Adding to this disagreement, there is now debate about whether we should be testing for COVID-19 at all, and instead test for antibodies that might reveal immunity to the disease. At a time when urgent, widespread action is necessary, these divisions are becoming a roadblock. Im reminded of the image of protesters screaming from their cars at health care workers silently preventing them from moving forward. No one advances.
The fact is, we need ubiquitous testing because we need to know who is actively infected and a danger to others and who is not currently infected. Testing for active infectious disease is a bedrock of controlling that disease, borne out of years of evidence and experience. There is no questions about whether we should do this and there should not be any question about whether we can do it. We must. And while we need more testing may seem a tired verse, we still are not testing for the virus at the levels we need. PCR tests which look for the presence of the virus have topped out at about 150,000 per day nationally. This is simply not enough to yield an accurate and actionable picture of the epidemic and at this moment, we are surely missing a majority of the people who are actively infected and spreading to others. Our analysis suggests that we need a minimum, 500,000 per day, and that assumes we maintain social distancing for a bit to bring case numbers down further.
Antibody tests, which are receiving a lot of attention, arent an alternative to the PCR test that looks for virus. They are a complement we need both. These antibody tests are essential for getting an overall picture of the epidemic, how many have had silent infections, and whether people might be immune. While these tests are great at the population level, there is too much error at the individual level. Given high rates of false positives and false negatives population we currently see as this technology is still being developed, it would be risky to tell people that they are immune when they may not be. Still, they are helpful when applied more broadly to a community or state and we should add them to our arsenal, but not be distracted from the challenge of tracking the virus as it moves.
Without ubiquitous testingtesting everyone with symptoms, and those they have come in contact withwe simply cannot be confident that a reported decline in cases represents a true decline in infections and that its safe to open. If a state misjudges its true underlying infection trajectory, it may suffer large flare-ups of the disease, necessitating a long and painful lockdown again. Yet most states are long way from adequate testing and the tracing of contacts that must follow. Massachusetts was the first state to begin building the infrastructure to trace contacts and it is still far from being ready. Other states have begun this effort but have ways to go to be ready. One report estimates the U.S. will need 100,000 new workers to perform this task.
The President has been encouraging the protests and that adds pressure on the Governors to open, even when those states dont meet the criteria his task force set out for opening up. It would be helpful if the President listened more closely to the public health and science advisors on his team and let their advice shape his message to states. The facts and the data are clear, we cannot re-open without a far more robust picture of who is infected and who is not. We should not ask anyone to return to a workplace without knowing if their coworkers are healthy. We cannot go back to a dinner out, without knowing if the waiter or waitress is healthy. Or get on a beach or a boat without knowing the people around us are not shedding virus asymptomatically.
The divisions around testing are now blocking needed and urgent action. These divisions must be repaired. The scientists and public health experts agree on whats needed, its time our national policy reflect the best science and evidence and policy leaders should bring us together to safely re-open based on that guidance.
The bottom line is that we can open up America again, but it cant be back to business as usual. That will be difficult. We must open up slowly and deliberately with ubiquitous testing, contact tracing, and isolating those who are sick. And of course, no large gatherings. It wont be back to business as usual. But not getting back to business as usual is better than not getting back to business at all. And those really are our only choices.
Thank you! For your security, we've sent a confirmation email to the address you entered. Click the link to confirm your subscription and begin receiving our newsletters. If you don't get the confirmation within 10 minutes, please check your spam folder.
Contact us at editors@time.com.
Read the original post:
The National Divide Over COVID-19 Testing Threatens Our Progress - TIME
- Progress Lighting - Home [Last Updated On: December 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 22nd, 2016]
- Home - Progress Lighting Outlet - Authorized Progress Dealer [Last Updated On: January 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 13th, 2017]
- What does progress mean? - Definitions.net [Last Updated On: January 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 13th, 2017]
- Progress Fire Company Harrisburg, PA [Last Updated On: January 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 13th, 2017]
- Homepage Center for American Progress [Last Updated On: January 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 13th, 2017]
- Progress being made on possible grocery store co-op in Winston-Salem - myfox8.com [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Nioh Review-in-Progress: FromSoftware's Formula Evolved - Shacknews [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Deutsche Bundesbank Cites Progress With Blockchain-Based Settlement - CryptoCoinsNews [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- IMF: Greece's debts are still unsustainable despite progress - The Seattle Times [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Think Progress Editor Mocks Audi for Equal Pay Super Bowl Ad - Breitbart News [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Progress apparent on defense - Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers.com [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- IMF: Greece's Debts are Still Unsustainable, Despite Progress - Voice of America [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Can US disrupter-in-chief trigger some progress? - Jerusalem Post Israel News [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- The Cost of Progress - Slate Magazine [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Cavaliers' pitching rotation a work in progress | Cavalier Insider ... - The Daily Progress [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- High schoolers create 'zines for progress' with WolfsonianFIU - FIU News [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Cries of 'dictator' show Pope Francis is making progress - Crux: Covering all things Catholic [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Officials: City is making progress in effort to address opioid crisis - The Union Leader [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- IN OUR VIEW: Work Ready in Progress for Carter - The Independent [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- BP's Earnings Keep Showing Progress, Even if the Headline Results Don't Say So - Motley Fool [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Women's Progress in the Boardroom Took a Hit in 2016 - Inc.com [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Blight Elimination Progress, Uplifting - MyWabashValley [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Rauner 'heartened' by progress in Springfield - Bloomington Pantagraph [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- David Johnson showed off the insane progress he's making in rehab from his knee injury - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Through the looking glass: Tower view showcases progress on Amazon's unique biospheres - GeekWire [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Britney Spears Says Niece Maddie Is 'Making Progress' After ATV Accident: 'Let's All Keep Praying' - PEOPLE.com [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Progress on vet's Mustang to be unveiled - Indianapolis Star [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Evgeni Malkin making 'progress,' could return Saturday in Arizona - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Forecasters See Slow Progress in Labor-Market Measures Favored by Trump Administration - Wall Street Journal [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- 'Paper boys' were the lifeblood of The Daily Progress - The Daily Progress [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Cliffs Natural Resources Is Showing a Lot of Progress on Its Return to Profitability - Motley Fool [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- ATA says states' telemedicine progress a mixed bag ... - FierceHealthcare [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Seltzer's Notebook | Colangelo Encouraged by Sixers' Progress - Sixers.com [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- The Trump administration can't entirely roll back progress on climate change here's why - Washington Post [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Colts position review: OL showed legit progress, but work remains - Indianapolis Star [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Egyptian Economy Making Slow, Tentative Progress - Voice of America [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- ATA: States show mixed progress with telemedicine | Healthcare Dive - Healthcare Dive [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Louisville City notes: McCabe making progress - The Courier-Journal [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Jeremy Lin: Progress but no timetable - NetsDaily [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Marginal progress for Turkish-backed forces in north Syria - LA Daily News [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Jimmy Cheek: UT chancellor appreciative of hard work, progress on journey - Knoxville News Sentinel [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Syria Regional Crisis 2016 Emergency Appeal - Progress Report - Reliefweb [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- CWLP officials: Bailout repayment would set back progress - The State Journal-Register [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Pistons' Johnson making halting but definite progress - The Detroit News [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Clairton works: Real progress is coming to the former steel town - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- The Democrats' Strategy: Hindering Progress For Partisan Politics - Daily Caller [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- The surprising progress stoppers on the Dallas Cowboys defensive line - Cowboys Wire [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Gender Progress in Ballet - Huffington Post [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Foyt pleased with progress, regrets lack of time - Motorsport.com, Edition: Global [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Progress Made, but Threat Lingers at California's Oroville Dam - Wall Street Journal [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Adele, Beyonc, and the Grammys' Fear of Progress - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- North Korea Claims Progress on Long-Range Goal With Missile Test - New York Times [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- How Travel Bans Can Impede America's Progress - Forbes - Forbes [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Jeff Sessions' appointment threatens decades of civil rights progress - The Hill (blog) [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Ionis Earns $75M Milestone from Bayer for Progress of Antisense Drug Program - Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News (press release) [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Guilford Schools annual report shows mixed results on progress - Greensboro News & Record (blog) [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Sniper Elite 4 review in progress - PC Gamer [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- For Honor Review In Progress - GameSpot [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- China's military progress challenges Western dominance, says IISS - Deutsche Welle [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- PFW in Progress Recap 2/14: Patriots Offseason Outlook | New ... - Patriots.com [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Daily Progress, chamber establish regional business Hall of Fame - The Daily Progress [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Huntsville-based Progress Bank to acquire Birmingham's First Partners Bank - Birmingham Business Journal [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- City, UF sign partnership for progress - Gainesville Sun [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- California officials lift evacuation order for 200000 threatened by damaged dam - CBS News [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- 5G progress at Ericsson could help enterprises work worldwide - Computerworld [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Officials making 'great progress' on California dam repairs, remind residents to stay vigilant - Fox News [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Halo Wars 2 Review in Progress - IGN [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- CUGNON: Forward progress - Yale Daily News (blog) [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- F-35 Program Makes Significant, Solid Progress, Official Says - Department of Defense [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Lenovo's data center ambitions remain work in progress following Q3 results - ZDNet [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- PFW in Progress Recap 2/16: Free Agency and Potential Patriots - Patriots.com [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- S&P 500: 'Blow-off' Phase in Progress - DailyFX [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Combine invites are another sign of progress at Michigan - Big Ten ... - ESPN (blog) [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Halo Wars 2 review in progress - PC Gamer [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- 'Hero' film produced just for Charlottesville featured the mayor, The Daily Progress - The Daily Progress [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Republicans' health care overhaul still a work in progress - Press Herald [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Trump Boasts Of 'Incredible Progress' In 4 Weeks Of Presidency - NPR [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Donald Trump touts promise progress at press conference - PolitiFact [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Mild winter helping crews make significant progress on East End Connector - WRAL.com [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Committee updates Legislature on precinct consolidation progress - Chicago Tribune [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]