When I wrote the first version of the story that was published in WiT three weeks ago, I used less data than is now available. Now I think we have a better view of the situation. Thus I am revising my timeline and its not pretty.

Stage 3 wassupposed to end with March. There are still repatriation flights occurringacross the world. The UK is repatriating citizens from India. The Cyprusgovernment is helping to repatriate UK citizens back from the island nation.The US State Department is still getting people back from Africa. The vastmajority will be complete by the end of next week.

Stage 4, Ibelieved previously, would galvanise the stakeholders in the airline industry not least of which would be the governments to form consensus groups togetherto create solutions that would start the process of a planned return to somedegree of normalcy. Sadly, this is not happening.

Unlike theperiod after 9/11 when there was unprecedented cooperation between countriesand commercial stakeholders in support of the air transportation system, thereis little of that going on. Much criticism needs to be levelled at the USA forits failure to participate, let alone lead.

Thus Ibelieve now that Stage 4 will extend out for Europe and North America thiswill likely mean Stage 4 will last until September. Thus the Northern Europeansummer season is now shot. This recession, at least as far as the aviationmarket is concerned, is an abrupt L rather than the somewhat rosy view oftraditional economists who wrote reports showing V or U shaped recoverymodels.

I fully expect to see World Travel Market cancelled or drastically reduced in size. Other major events too will be cancelled and some events will never return. What happens in stage 4 and the extent of positive action will have a direct impact on the speed and slope of recovery. Chinas singular focus will pay dividends. USAs procrastination and stumbles will doom it to a long and painful period. The USA economy which depends so much on air travel will falter.

Stage 5 most of the airline industry has accepted this new truth which includes athree- to five-year recovery model, but the looming challenge is the cash burnof so many of the airlines will mean that many of them will now be facing downthe barrel of bankruptcy. The unevenness of the recovery will start to appear.

I believethat China and certain other countries such as Taiwan and South Korea will alsobe at the new normal a lot faster. The balance of this year (2020) willdissolve into recriminations, more bailouts and no cross industry solutions. Aswe enter the fourth quarter irrespective of the success of containment ofCovid-19 fears of the next wave of a virus-like disease will curtail anypossibility of recovery.

The sheermagnitude of the downturn will now start to dawn on the human race that theextent and length of the downturn will be three to five years, rather than justa correction. Stage 5 will occupy a time period now well into 2021. Alreadythere is some talk of the Olympics not making it even in 2021.

My view isthat the longer there is a delay in bold decision-making in Stage 4, thegreater the likelihood is of regulation and the more extensive its form. Recognitionthat the air transportation system is a strategic asset will see(re)nationalization of some airlines. And right in the cross-hairs is IATA.This venerable organization will have to face the reality of a massive cut inits budget. That impact will start to become apparent at the end of 2020.

Stage 6 the recovery will be slower and start a lot later. That gentle slope will hidethe extent of the re-crafting of the airline sector and the travel industry asa whole. We will see far fewer players. We will see higher prices andsubsidies. Travel will lose a lot of the edge of attractiveness. Withunemployment in many countries like USA hovering at an unprecedented 10% intolate 2021 or even into 2022; discretionary spending priorities will change fora very long time.

My sensenow is that the hard line between stages 6 and 7 will not be as apparent. Therewill be no cheering on reaching that milestone.

Whateverthe timeline we will have a lot more have vs have not discussions in thecoming years. Over capacity of supply, and over-tourism will be far less ofan issue.

The biggest change will be the revolution in the infrastructure of our industry. Digital will sweep away so much that is manual. Legacy structures will collapse in the face of the need for low cost solutions. Governments will have to step back in to regulate and preserve the system in ways they have not had to consider in now decades. I remain cautiously optimistic but the lack of progress haunts my thinking.

Timothy ONeil-Dunne is principal of 777 Partners

Featured image credit: LuckyTD/Getty Images

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7 Stages to the New Normal, revisited the lack of progress haunts my thinking - Web In Travel