By JC Chaudhry. Dated: 4/26/2020 11:14:24 PM

The tightly connected systems of a globalized world have transformed the novel corona virus from a handful of cases in China to a global pandemic in a few months. More than one-quarter of the world's 7.8 billion people are now largely confined to their homes, as governments step up curbs on movement and social contact in a bid to contain the virus.As the global health crisis surrounding the corona virus pandemic worsens and as lockdown quickly becomes the new norm for many, there is a growing realization that even once corona virus is over in the immediate sense, it will have changed the shape of the world forever. The consensus is that the entire world will probably be dealing with the immediate threat from COVID-19 for the next 18-24 months, in some way or another, and even then, the rebuild and the lasting impact will no doubt be felt for years to come. In many parts of the world, borders are closed, airports, hotels and businesses shut, and educational institutions are closed. These unprecedented measures are tearing at the social fabric of some societies and disrupting many economies, resulting in mass job losses and raising the spectre of widespread hunger.At present, there are many unknowns about how this crisis will unfold. The highest priority is survival (Jaan Hai Toh Jahaan Hai). And the purpose of survival is future success. But in order to succeed in the future, countries across the world must plan for it. While references to World War II are understandable, corona virus cannot be fought and beaten as if this were a war. While wartime enemies often are unpredictable, they are rarely invisible. Still, as in a shooting war, sound planning is vital and irreplaceable if victory is to be achieved.Two similar layers are emerging as this pandemic closes the world down. (a) The first is a public health emergency that is likely to last for two years. The virus will remain a threat until a vaccine is developed as countries struggle to flatten the curve of new infections and keep their health systems afloat. Collective action is also needed to clear barriers to the development, manufacture, and equitable distribution of a vaccine. International supply chains must be put on a wartime footing to produce the supplies needed, from masks to ventilators, to treat rapidly growing numbers of patients who need intensive care.(b) The pandemics second-order effects of this infectious disease can devastate global financial markets rapidly, with China facing the disappearance of export markets and fraying of supply chains. Covid-19 has not only crashed asset prices and stock markets, but real lives and real activity.There is little doubt that the world is staring into a recession, likely to manifest fully next year. The projections for world GDP 2021 have fallen below 2.5%. When production comes to a halt, this is the expected outcome. Businesses have been forced to stop operations, there is loss of production across the board.COVID-19 will fast-forward the fourth industrial revolution and digitalization of all services, including public services. The relationship between the community and the state will become ever more remote, whereby states are now expanding their remote control over civil society and private life.Technology-led impact of Corona Virus on World Economies1. Strengthened Digital InfrastructureCOVID-19 caused people to adapt to working from home and in isolation. By forcing our collective hand to find digital solutions to keep meetings, lessons, workouts, and more going when sheltering in our homes, it allowed us to see the possibilities for continuing some of these practices in a post-COVID-19 world.2. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Enabled Drug DevelopmentThe faster we can create and deploy an effective and safe drug to treat and a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 and future viruses, the faster it will be contained. Artificial intelligence is an ideal partner in drug development to accelerate and complement human endeavors. Our current reality will inform future efforts to deploy AI in drug development.3. TelemedicineTo curb traffic at hospitals and other healthcare practitioners offices, many are implementing or reminding their patients that consultations can be done through video. Rather than rush to the doctor or healthcare center, remote care enables clinical services without an in-person visit. Some healthcare providers had dabbled in this before COVID-19, but the interest has increased now that social distancing is mandated in many areas.4. Increased Reliance on RobotsRobots are not susceptible to viruses. Whether they are used to deliver groceries or to take vitals in a healthcare system or to keep a factory running, companies realize how robots could support us today and play an important role in a post-COVID-19 world or during a future pandemic.We will also witness more government use of surveillance. It is a useful weapon to fight the virus - for instance, countries like India and Israel are using smartphones to figure out who's been where in order to track clusters of the virus - but at the same time, such moves threaten to undermine individual freedom and privacy.Separately, China will benefit greatly from this crisis as it was the first country to experience the epidemic and to get out of it though speculations are rife that it might be entering a second wave of outbreak of the virus.More retail will be carried out online and customer service interactions will be virtual. "Social distancing" means face-to-face interactions between employees and customers and partners will be on a decline, and electronic interactions will be on the rise. As with the work-from-home trend, even when the crisis is over new habits will have been formed and the post-pandemic world will look very different from the pre-pandemic world. The higher cost of face-to-face interactions will go way down, but the relatively lower cost of electronic interactions will go up.Social media companies and news organizations will have an especially important role in framing how we think about the outbreak, particularly when it comes to countering the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories on their platforms.Global Impact of Corona Virus On Education/Learning-Based Sector1. The corona virus pandemic has changed how millions around the globe are educated.Over 421 million children are affected due to school closures announced or implemented in 39 countries. In addition, another 22 countries have announced partial "localized" closures.(a) With the corona virus spreading rapidly across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the United States, countries have taken swift and decisive actions to mitigate the development of a full-blown pandemic. In the past two weeks, there have been multiple announcements suspending attendance at schools and universities. (b) These risk-control decisions have led millions of students into temporary home-schooling situations, especially in some of the most heavily impacted countries, like China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran. These changes have certainly caused a degree of inconvenience, but they have also prompted new examples of educational innovation. (c) To help slow the virus' spread, students in different parts of the world including India started to learn at home via interactive apps. Majority got access to learning material through live television broadcasts. (d) With 5G technology becoming more prevalent in countries such as China, US and Japan, the learners and solution providers will shift towards truly embracing the learning anywhere, anytime concept of digital education in a range of formats. Traditional in-person classroom learning will be complemented with new learning modalities - from live broadcasts to educational influencers to virtual reality experiences. Learning could become a habit that is integrated into daily routines - a true lifestyle.2. Learning consortiums and coalitions could take shape, with diverse stakeholders - including governments, publishers, education professionals, technology providers, and telecom network operators - coming together to utilize digital platforms as a temporary solution to the crisis. In emerging countries where education has predominantly been provided by the government, this could become a prevalent and consequential trend to future education.3. The pandemic is also an opportunity to remind ourselves of the skills students need in this unpredictable world such as informed decision making, creative problem solving, and perhaps above all, adaptability. To ensure those skills remain a priority for all students, resilience must be built into our educational systems as well.Indias education system is impaired, and students are unable to follow their regular academic routines. In wake of this emergency and keeping the student safety in mind and their academic concern, most of the institutions have taken the initiative to provide the facility of telecommunication, skype call, zoom call and access to other virtual options to fill the gap of learning. It is giving training to students and teachers to use technology to facilitate virtual classes and exchange of information. Undoubtedly, this is a very crucial time for students. So, the move is aimed at easing the pressure on students and helping them use their time profitably without compromising on the quality. Economic Impact of Corona Virus on World Economy And Viable Measures 1. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) states global growth, which was already low at 2.9 per cent last year, could fall below 2 per cent this year. A global recession is now all but certain.Apart from the tragic human consequences of the COVID-19 corona virus epidemic, the economic uncertainty it has sparked will likely cost the global economy $1 trillion in 2020. The UNCTAD assumes India will have a trade loss of 348 million dollars due to the corona outbreak.Nearly 25 million jobs could be lost worldwide due to the corona virus pandemic, but an internationally coordinated policy response can help lower the impact on global unemployment. 2. The United States of America is incredibly dependent on China. Not many people understand what is happening to our world and economy right now. Often in companies, up to 90 per cent of all goods are made in China from oil-derived substances such as plastic and polyester. We will soon see shelves empty of shoes, phones, clothes and even toothpaste. We will have a shortage of medical supplies and will see a stop in the endless production of ugly souvenirs and useless goody bags.The world order stands to change due to Covid-19. Even assuming erratic pandemics do not recur, what is clear is that the Chinese governments totalitarianism and lack of transparency will continue to hurt the world. Today it is Covid-19, tomorrow it may be their financial system. What is clear is that putting all eggs in one basket and shifting 80% of supply chains to China just on considerations of profit is myopically unsustainable. The endless Chinese exports of synthetic saris to India and plastic household objects to Africa, which have severely disrupted local economies there and created a lot of joblessness (and pollution) over the years might also come to a halt, possibly bringing new opportunities for making locally.The United States and Europe should take this moment as a wake-up call to pay far more attention to addressing non-military national security threats, including their excessive dependence on China for crucial supply chains that reach from pharmaceuticals to rare earth materials used in almost all our high-tech gear. Today, about 80% of pharmaceuticals sold in the US are produced in China. China is also the largest and sometimes only global supplier for the active ingredient of some vital medications.3. China's attempts to limit the spread of a deadly viral outbreak have crippled factories that produce everything from cars and electronics to clothes and greetings cards. That, in turn, has reminded the rest of the world just how dependent it is on China as a source of components and finished products.Countries need to seriously start considering setting up indigenous production of goods and medicines as a strategic asset necessary for running the day-to-day life of a country.In this context, India is very well positioned to help build a more dynamic and sustainable world. India has a competitive advantage in the services including the Information Technology Services, Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, and Medical tourism sectors.India has massive potential to grow. Just 35 years ago, the Indian and Chinese economy had similar exports. The Chinese economy experienced massive growth, in part, due to substantial market friendly reforms. Iran, one of the four countries hit hardest by corona virus, with more than 4,700 cases and 124 deaths, is lurching between measures to stop its spread among an increasingly distrustful population and steps it has taken to accelerate its uranium enrichment toward a nuclear weapon. Iran could choose to rapidly reduce its costly, malign regional behavior, which neither its citizens nor its neighbors can afford. It could pull back from recent steps to increase its uranium enrichment in the direction of weapons grade materials.Of the worlds 10 largest ports, seven of them are in China. It was built to be the worlds manufacturer. It was not built to be the worlds importer. China has 1.3 billion people to feed and house. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is that the overwhelming dependence on China needs to reduce and drastically, a thought uppermost in many parts of the world.4. The outbreak of the virus has placed tremendous power and responsibility in the hands of governments. This is not a problem that can be dealt with bottom up, but need specific guidance, orders, and regulation from the government. Recovery will be centrally driven. Governments have a long road ahead.(a) Firstly, concerted effort across the globe is required to keep interest rates down till economic activity revives which is expected to trigger demand for goods and services and subsequently revive economies. (b) Secondly, when the government asks people to stay indoors and not turn up for work, the responsibility of providing for those who lose their income is high and real. There are millions of daily wage earners who have been put out of work due to shutdowns. There would be widespread layoffs, cutbacks, leading to eventual unemployment. Governments must find the resources for handouts and borrow heavily, since tax collections will have dropped.The other drivers of the economy private consumption, investment demand, export growthwill all slow down and take time to revive. Without government spending, the recessionary impact will be deeper.(c) The co-operation between economies will have to be reworked to facilitate global recovery. Economies that depend on world trade for growth, will take longer to bounce back. The uneven stages of economic activity will mean that as China and South Korea are ready to return to production, UK and US are falling into a low consumption and shut down mode. India might be fortunate in comparison, given the high level of domestic consumption and relatively lower dependence on external sector.At the national level, this pandemic will force many countries to reconsider their social policies, especially social protection and healthcare. In addition, there will be efforts to help workers in the informal sector. 5. Health is now a strategic issue, accompanied by defence and security. The world has been spending huge amount of money over new and innovative technologies with regards to hard power which emphasizes over military might and destructive weapons since long. Those states which are spending more money on acquiring new technology in weapons and arms remain much influential and powerful nations of the world. Over the past fourteen years, the government of United States has spent $1.5 trillion for military operations, $92 billion for indigenous security forces, $92 billion for state and foreign aid, and $5 billion for other services.The changing dynamics of world also effect the moods of war, transitioning from traditional to other forms such as Bio-War, Hybrid war, and Cyber war etc. Some contend that the corona virus is an experimental germ that accidently escaped from a Chinese lab. Others argue it is the handiwork of the worlds most powerful military i.e. United States of America, which used the planets most populated country as proving grounds for a new bioweapon. An alternate theory is that China deliberately launched a biological attack in order to position itself as the single greatest superpower, while flattening its rivals industrial and economic capacity.Bio-warfare labs everywhere have been a source of serious threats, with the big powers seeing them as potentially usable as weapons of mass destruction, proved by the large number of such facilities worldwide. The world will be judged not only on how many people are lost to the Wuhan virus, but how it acts with respect to issues of governance, crisis management and preparation for the days after.Having let the germ war genie out of the bottle, none of the big powers can now disown responsibility. To fight the corona virus, a global fund to support public health and address the humanitarian and sanitary needs of partner countries by providing financial assistance will be a step in the right direction.Setting up of an integrated commission and thinktank teams at national level consisting of non-political members and scientists to coordinate sustained multilateral efforts against the corona virus outbreak is the need of the hour. This will reinforce the public health sectors and mitigate the socio-economic impact. Economic Impact of Corona Virus on World Economy and Viable Measures 1. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) states global growth, which was already low at 2.9 per cent last year, could fall below 2 per cent this year. A global recession is now all but certain.Apart from the tragic human consequences of the COVID-19 corona virus epidemic, the economic uncertainty it has sparked will likely cost the global economy $1 trillion in 2020. The UNCTAD assumes India will have a trade loss of 348 million dollars due to the corona outbreak.Nearly 25 million jobs could be lost worldwide due to the corona virus pandemic, but an internationally coordinated policy response can help lower the impact on global unemployment. 2. The United States of America is incredibly dependent on China. Not many people understand what is happening to our world and economy right now. Often in companies, up to 90 per cent of all goods are made in China from oil-derived substances such as plastic and polyester. We will soon see shelves empty of shoes, phones, clothes and even toothpaste. We will have a shortage of medical supplies and will see a stop in the endless production of ugly souvenirs and useless goody bags.The world order stands to change due to Covid-19. Even assuming erratic pandemics do not recur, what is clear is that the Chinese governments totalitarianism and lack of transparency will continue to hurt the world. Today it is Covid-19, tomorrow it may be their financial system. What is clear is that putting all eggs in one basket and shifting 80% of supply chains to China just on considerations of profit is myopically unsustainable. The endless Chinese exports of synthetic saris to India and plastic household objects to Africa, which have severely disrupted local economies there and created a lot of joblessness (and pollution) over the years might also come to a halt, possibly bringing new opportunities for making locally.The United States and Europe should take this moment as a wake-up call to pay far more attention to addressing non-military national security threats, including their excessive dependence on China for crucial supply chains that reach from pharmaceuticals to rare earth materials used in almost all our high-tech gear. Today, about 80% of pharmaceuticals sold in the US are produced in China. China is also the largest and sometimes only global supplier for the active ingredient of some vital medications.3. China's attempts to limit the spread of a deadly viral outbreak have crippled factories that produce everything from cars and electronics to clothes and greetings cards. That, in turn, has reminded the rest of the world just how dependent it is on China as a source of components and finished products.Countries need to seriously start considering setting up indigenous production of goods and medicines as a strategic asset necessary for running the day-to-day life of a country.In this context, India is very well positioned to help build a more dynamic and sustainable world. India has a competitive advantage in the services including the Information Technology Services, Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, and Medical tourism sectors.India has massive potential to grow. Just 35 years ago, the Indian and Chinese economy had similar exports. The Chinese economy experienced massive growth, in part, due to substantial market friendly reforms. Iran, one of the four countries hit hardest by corona virus, with more than 4,700 cases and 124 deaths, is lurching between measures to stop its spread among an increasingly distrustful population and steps it has taken to accelerate its uranium enrichment toward a nuclear weapon. Iran could choose to rapidly reduce its costly, malign regional behavior, which neither its citizens nor its neighbors can afford. It could pull back from recent steps to increase its uranium enrichment in the direction of weapons grade materials.Of the worlds 10 largest ports, seven of them are in China. It was built to be the worlds manufacturer. It was not built to be the worlds importer. China has 1.3 billion people to feed and house. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is that the overwhelming dependence on China needs to reduce and drastically, a thought uppermost in many parts of the world.4. The outbreak of the virus has placed tremendous power and responsibility in the hands of governments. This is not a problem that can be dealt with bottom up, but need specific guidance, orders, and regulation from the government. Recovery will be centrally driven. Governments have a long road ahead.(a) Firstly, concerted effort across the globe is required to keep interest rates down till economic activity revives which is expected to trigger demand for goods and services and subsequently revive economies. (b) Secondly, when the government asks people to stay indoors and not turn up for work, the responsibility of providing for those who lose their income is high and real. There are millions of daily wage earners who have been put out of work due to shutdowns. There would be widespread layoffs, cutbacks, leading to eventual unemployment. Governments must find the resources for handouts and borrow heavily, since tax collections will have dropped.The other drivers of the economy private consumption, investment demand, export growthwill all slow down and take time to revive. Without government spending, the recessionary impact will be deeper.(c) The co-operation between economies will have to be reworked to facilitate global recovery. Economies that depend on world trade for growth, will take longer to bounce back. The uneven stages of economic activity will mean that as China and South Korea are ready to return to production, UK and US are falling into a low consumption and shut down mode. India might be fortunate in comparison, given the high level of domestic consumption and relatively lower dependence on external sector.At the national level, this pandemic will force many countries to reconsider their social policies, especially social protection and healthcare. In addition, there will be efforts to help workers in the informal sector. 5. Health is now a strategic issue, accompanied by defence and security. The world has been spending huge amount of money over new and innovative technologies with regards to hard power which emphasizes over military might and destructive weapons since long. Those states which are spending more money on acquiring new technology in weapons and arms remain much influential and powerful nations of the world. Over the past fourteen years, the government of United States has spent $1.5 trillion for military operations, $92 billion for indigenous security forces, $92 billion for state and foreign aid, and $5 billion for other services.The changing dynamics of world also effect the moods of war, transitioning from traditional to other forms such as Bio-War, Hybrid war, and Cyber war etc. Some contend that the corona virus is an experimental germ that accidently escaped from a Chinese lab. Others argue it is the handiwork of the worlds most powerful military i.e. United States of America, which used the planets most populated country as proving grounds for a new bioweapon. An alternate theory is that China deliberately launched a biological attack in order to position itself as the single greatest superpower, while flattening its rivals industrial and economic capacity.Bio-warfare labs everywhere have been a source of serious threats, with the big powers seeing them as potentially usable as weapons of mass destruction, proved by the large number of such facilities worldwide. The world will be judged not only on how many people are lost to the Wuhan virus, but how it acts with respect to issues of governance, crisis management and preparation for the days after.Having let the germ war genie out of the bottle, none of the big powers can now disown responsibility. To fight the corona virus, a global fund to support public health and address the humanitarian and sanitary needs of partner countries by providing financial assistance will be a step in the right direction.Setting up of an integrated commission and thinktank teams at national level consisting of non-political members and scientists to coordinate sustained multilateral efforts against the corona virus outbreak is the need of the hour. This will reinforce the public health sectors and mitigate the socio-economic impact. Social and Cultural After- Effects of Corona Virus1. More Contactless Interfaces and InteractionsThe physical analog world is being decimated, with traditional analog businesses including hotels, restaurants and airplanes in crisis. The digital world, however, is thriving through this pandemic because of technology. Everyone is sitting at home, and their window to the world is through their smartphone. In the post-pandemic world, technology will be found everywhere as it is now, if not more, and tech companies will become even more powerful and dominant. That includes smaller firms like Zoom, and the big players such as Google, Apple, Facebook and Paypal. There was a time not too long ago when we were impressed by touch screens and all they enabled us to do. COVID-19 has made most of us hyper-aware of every touchable surface that could transmit the disease, so in a post-COVID-19 world, it is expected that we will have fewer touch screens and more voice interfaces and machine vision interfaces. 2. Personal Becomes Dangerous. A crisis on this scale can reorder society in dramatic ways, for better or worse. And it will. The corona virus pandemic will reshape society in lasting ways, from how people will travel and buy homes, to the level of security and surveillance they are accustomed to, and even to the language they use. This virus that keeps us contained in our homesmaybe for monthsis already reorienting our relationship to government, to the outside world, even to each other. Changes expected to occur in the coming months or years might feel unfamiliar, even unsettling. Will nations stay closed? Will touch become taboo? What will become of restaurants and travel? What behaviour will be exhibited in health clubs? Sit-down restaurants also could close permanently as people frequent them less, it is likely there will be many fewer sit-down restaurants across the world.We know now that touching things, being with other people and breathing the air in an enclosed space can be risky. It could become second nature to recoil from shaking hands or touching our facesand we might find we cannot stop washing our hands. The comfort of being in the presence of others might be replaced by a greater comfort with absence, especially with those we do not know. People will distrust crowds. Limits on social gatherings, how we interact in the workplace, in school and in public, even how children play together, all will be very different in the new normal. The social fabric that breaks might not be repaired. There will be questions ranging from whether we will still shake hands, whether we will be able to travel safely or even vacation to whether we will dismantle our home office set-ups when the pandemic is over. 3. Many people will look back and see this as a time when things changed in their lives.A lot of our lives are habitual, and habits are highly effective in helping us work, look after our families and pursue our goals. What a shock to the system does is change those habits. People work and travel in a different way, their daily routines and the very rhythm of their lives change, including when they eat and how they communicate with their families. And when people are forced to do things differently, new habits begin to form.4. Another aspect of life that has been badly affected by the outbreak is culture, to be specific - religion. The pandemic has impacted religion in various ways, including the cancellation of the worship services of various faiths as well as the cancellation of pilgrimages surrounding observances and festivals. In some countries such as South Korea, Iran and Malaysia, the surge of COVID-19 cases was attributed to pilgrimage sites and closer home at India, to religious gatherings.This pandemic is far from a war, but it requires pulling together. And when people realise what collective action can achieve, it could change how they relate to others, resulting in a greater sense of community. Envisioning that post-pandemic world is key in ensuring we change for the better, not the worse. The Covid-19 pandemic has significantly changed the world. The how is growing clearer with each day of its global spread.When we emerge, we will be different people in a different world. *(The writer is a renowned entrepreneur, motivational speaker and numerologist)

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PRESENT AND AFTER-EFFECTS OF CORONAVIRUS THE WORLD OVER - Kashmir Times