by Clifford F. Thies

The latest polls from north of the border put the upcoming election very close. What is consistent across the polls is that the Conservatives are in the upper 30s, we'll say 38, close to the magic 40 percent mark that, traditionally, converts into a majority in the parliament. There is a possibility that the Conservatives will increase their popular vote and seats in parliament while not not by enough to gain a majority. If the Conservatives fall short of a majority, it looks possible that the other three parties will devise some kind of agreement to wrest control of the government from the Conservatives. As to how this would happen, and how long the agreement would last, would be anybody's guess.

What is inconsistent in the polls is the position of the New Democrats. In terms of the popular vote, the range of their showings is from a tied with the Liberals for second to a distant third. But, as for seats, they seem to be picking up strength where they're going to lose. So, no real pick-up of seats is projected.

On the other hand, the surge of strength for the New Democrats means, in Quebec, that the Bloc Quebecois looks to retain about the same number of seats they currently have in spite of projections of their lowest popular vote in years. This would be because of of the split of the federalist vote across three strong parties instead of merely two.

The Liberals are getting set to declare victory in spite of projections showing them as losing the popular vote to the Conservative in every regions of the country except Quebec, and in Quebec possibly finishing fourth behind the Bloc and the New Democrats as well as the Tories. Talk about backing into a victory. What Chutzpah!

But, wait, there's more.

The Liberals have decided that they only thing for the other two parties that really dislike the Conservatives to do is to agree to support a Liberal minority government. So, instead of Canada being ruled by a party that obtained nearly 40 percent of the popular vote and fell just short of a majority in parliament, it would be ruled by a party that obtained nearly 30 percent of the popular vote and fell far short of a majority.

Thus, if the Conservatives fall short of a majority by, let's say, more than 2 seats, it's possible Canada will wind up with a even more tenuous minority government than it has had the past several years and will soon be back at the polls.