MARKHAM, Ont. It was perhaps no coincidence that Liberal leader Justin Trudeau was campaigning Wednesday in the riding once held by former trusted, high-profile Cabinet minister Jane Philpott.

Philpott, the former Liberal Treasury Board president, was turfed by Trudeau from the party after she publicly said she had no confidence in the prime ministers handling of the SNC-Lavalin affair.

Now Philpott, well-known and well-liked in the Markham-Stouffville riding, is standing as an independent and is more than holding her own.

Philpott believes that there is a grassroots, anti-establishment phenomenon of sorts taking place in this riding a largely white, middle-class suburb north of Toronto that is simply not being reflected in mainstream polling data.

In fact, she and her team were so sure about this that they recently commissioned Oracle Poll Research to conduct a survey of 301 voters in the riding, which showed Philpott in the lead, with 38 per cent of decided voters saying that would chose her as their MP. The poll showed Liberal candidate Helena Jaczek coming in at 35 per cent, and Conservative candidate Theodore Antony at 10 per cent.

We have been tracking that I have a three to one advantage amongst decided voters. Thats not what most polls are saying, but thats what were hearing after talking to thousands of people, Philpott said, in an interview with the Post, this past Saturday, just minutes before hitting the road for yet another day of door knocking.

Days after releasing the poll results on her blog, Trudeau descended upon Markham, campaigning with Liberal candidates in the area, including Jaczek.

Since the writ drop, Philpott says that her campaign has knocked on 26,868 doors in a riding with a population of 126,000 people. They have less than two weeks, and roughly 16,000 doors left to go. But with over 350 volunteers, and more than enough cash till election day, theres a palpable feeling of optimism in her campaign office, more than one would expect of a candidate running as an independent in a Westminster system, where party brand reigns supreme and party loyalty runs deep.

It was this aspect of caucus politics party discipline that caused Philpott to clash so publicly with her leader, citing an incompatibility between the conventions of Cabinet solidarity and her own loss of confidence in Trudeaus handling of the SNC affair. And it was similarly this rejection of party discipline, that ultimately pushed Philpott to run as an independent, free from the structural rigidity of party messaging.

There seemed to be unwritten messages and rules about how much youre allowed to disagree with the party. If people disagreed in certain formats, there would be negative consequences, Philpott said. I feel sad about the circumstances that led to me being kicked out. I dont regret what I did by standing up and saying SNC-Lavalin was wrong but I shouldnt have been kicked out of the party for saying that.

I dont regret what I did by standing up and saying SNC-Lavalin was wrong

While door knocking, Philpott, the incumbent, is repeatedly praised for breaking with tradition and taking a stand on SNC. Youre a champion. You go get them, said one voter, excitedly embracing the former health minister.

It helps that Philpott spent a good chunk of her career as a family doctor in Stouffville.

I just want to tell you that Im so proud of what you did, and youre definitely getting my vote, said another voter on the same street, a former patient of Philpotts. Can I put a sign on your lawn? Philpott asks tentatively, not wanting to take up too much time, mindful that it was still relatively early on a weekend morning.

At another house, there was some confusion and concern about what an independent MP will be able to accomplish in Ottawa. This sentiment was expressed often, by numerous constituents, but Philpott had her talking points ready to go: independent MPs will be able to speak solely on behalf of their constituents, unlike partisan MPs who have to follow party messaging; politics can be different and improved by more independents who can freely represent their constituents, and freely collaborate with other MPs.

At least once a week, one of her volunteers Naftali Nakhshon drives across the Greater Toronto Area all the way from the western Toronto suburb of Etobicoke to the north-eastern district of Stouffville to canvass.

Nakhshon, a middle-aged Israeli-Canadian who has a certain candour to his demeanour, isnt even able to vote for Philpott, because he doesnt reside in her riding.

In fact, he admits he will probably end up voting Conservative. I always vote Conservative, but its because we dont have a strong independent like her running in my riding. Shes brave, Nakhshon told the National Post, shortly after canvassing Philpotts riding.

It was this very intrigue with an alternative form of federal government representation beyond the main political parties that got Nakhshon interested in Philpotts campaign.

To a large extent, with her commitment to advancing reconciliation, advocating for a national pharmacare plan, and the condemnation of Bill 21 Quebecs ban on public service employees wearing religious symbols Philpotts platform has the sound and feel of the Liberal Party. She admits that she was courted by both the NDP and the Green Party in the aftermath of being ousted from the Liberal caucus, but did not feel it was fair to herself or to her constituents to wrap myself in another whole party colour and say thats who I am now.

That honesty, says Nakhshon, is exactly what is appealing to him about Philpott. I dont think most people in this campaign office will agree with where I stand politically, but look, were all sitting here together.

Philpott characterizes her actions this past spring as one that placed loyalty to the country above the party. I was trying to uphold the rule of law and say politicians should not interfere with criminal cases. That should not be a reason to be kicked out of your party, especially by somebody I served with complete loyalty for three and a half years. But I cant dwell on that, I have to move on.

Philpotts campaign manager, Jennifer Hess, who was also involved in her 2015 campaign, admits that there are challenges to not having the backing of a big party in running a campaign. But the campaign has surpassed expectations on two key aspects the number of volunteers, and donations. We have more money than we can legally spend. We were in the incredibly fortunate position to stop accepting donations.

The conventional rhetoric about Markham-Stouffville is that Philpotts candidacy will end up splitting the Liberal vote, but both Philpott and Hess believe that that logic might not hold up on Oct. 21.

There are a few very loyal partisan constituents who will vote for the party they have always voted for. But Ive had people tell me that they feel politically homeless, that they cant find a party they feel they belong in, said Philpott. There are definitely people who are interested in voting for an independent because they feel like it is an option for them and will demonstrate something outside of partisanship.

Pollster Philippe J. Fournier of 338canada.com, whose own data suggests that Philpott will end up in third place with just 18 per cent of the overall vote, rejects the idea that Philpotts anecdotal account of support shes getting at doors could indicate her chances of winning.

With all due respect to Ms. Philpott (and I mean this sincerely), lawn signs and what people tell candidates when door knocking are the most unscientific indicators. They absolutely dont mean a thing. Its spin at best, Fournier told the Post over email, prior to Philpotts team conducting the Oracle-commissioned survey. Philpotts gold and black lawn signs are evident throughout Markham-Stouffville there are either as many signs as both the Conservative and Liberal candidates respectively, or even more.

Any candidate of any party would never say on the record that things arent going well on the field. They just never would, Fournier added.

But at least on the surface, and perhaps unlike her former boss, Philpotts own determination to win does not come from the desire to further her personal political ambitions. I dont think of myself as having a political career. I think of using politics as a tool to serve Canadians. I really would not be doing this if I thought I couldnt accomplish something for good.

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Kicked out of the party, but not out of politics: Ex-Liberal Jane Philpott holding her own as independent - National Post