Exit Poll: Fine Gael within reach of a majority

by Clifford F. Thies

It will be a couple more days before we know for sure, but an exit poll puts Fine Gael within reach of a majority of seats in the new Irish national assembly.

Fine Gael (a center-right party in affiliation with the Christian Democrats of Europe) came in first, with 36 percent; Labor (center-left) second, with 25 percent; and, Fianna Fail (a centrist party in affiliation with the Liberal parties of Europe) third, with 15 percent. The rest of the votes were scattered amongst the Green Party, Sinn Fein (a stridently republican and socialist party), and
independents.

In the Irish system of voting, members of the national assembly are elected from multi-member districts by the single transferable vote method. For example, in a five-member district, any candidate receiving enough first preference votes is elected, and others are elected as necessary from the transfer of votes to candidates with a chance of winning from the second or lower preference votes of
candidates who were defeated. With 36 percent of first preferences for Fine Gael and 25 percent for Labor, it is possible that Fine Gael and Labor will dominate the new assembly, with Fine Gael having a majority and Labor a large minority.

If Fine Gael does not fetch an outright majority of the seats, it may be able to reach the 50 percent mark with the support of some of the independents, most of whom have a center-right orientation, or even with Fianna Fail, reduced as it may be to small party status. In any case, the strong showing for Fine Gael means that the economic policies that transformed Ireland from a poor country into one of the
richest in the world will survive the financial crisis of 2008. Fine Gael proposes to bring the country's budget into balance through spending cuts along with some help from Germany and perhaps some other EU countries in re-financing its debt on more favorable terms.

Since independence, Ireland has mostly been governed by a coalition led either by Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. The main difference between the two, traditionally, is that Fianna Fail is a wee bit more republican (meaning, nowadays, anxious for unification of the island as an independent republic) and a wee bit more populist (or, socially-conservative).

During the 1990s, Fianna Fail came to be associated with liberalization of the Irish economy. But, that was when Fianna Fail was in coalition with the Progressive Party, a libertarian party that is now dissolved. For a time, it seemed as though Fianna Fail tilted a bit toward free-market policies and Fine Gael to socialist policies; but, that was mostly due to two tails (the Progressives and Labor, smaller coalition partners) wagging two dogs.

More coverage of recent Euro elections at our sister site Worldwide Liberty.