From Eric Dondero:

It's likely that Republicans will lose the lone Delaware congressional seat held by Mike Castle. But a few miles down Rt. 13, it's now appearing more likely that the GOP will gain back a seat lost in in 2008.

A new poll finds fiscal conservative Dr. Andy Harris ahead of incumbent Democrat Rep. Frank Krotavil by 11 points. Harris has been backed by the libertarian-leaning Club for Growth.

The poll was conducted by Monmouth Univ. (pdf)

In a rematch of the 2008 election for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District, Republican challenger Andy Harris holds an 11 point lead over Democrat incumbent Frank Kratovil. The Monmouth University Poll finds the race stands at 53% for Harris to 42% for Kratovil.

This district is comprised of nine counties that make up Maryland’s Eastern Shore plus parts of three other counties in the Baltimore area. In 2008, the same two candidates vied for an open seat – open due to Harris’ defeat of incumbent Wayne Gilchrest in the GOP primary. In that race, Kratovil won a narrow victory by racking up an 11 point margin in his native Eastern Shore to offset Harris’ 12 point advantage in the western part of the district. That scenario is unlikely to play out this year. The poll finds Harris with an advantage in both the eastern (50% to 44%) and western (56% to 40%) portions of the district.

“Prior to 2008, this seat was safely in the Republican fold. It looks like it will revert to form in 2010,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Congressman Kratovil’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district is decidedly negative at 34% approve to 49% disapprove.

Dr. Harris is a former Naval officer, and a chief surgeon at John Hopkins. He is currently a practicing physician at a number of hospitals on the Eastern Shore.

AndyHarris.com