From Eric Dondero:

The State of Maine is poised to elect its first Republican Governor since the early 1990s. And he's a libertarian/conservative Tea Partyer.

Polls in recent weeks suggested that the race might be tightening. Paul LePage, Mayor of Waterville, held a substantial lead, even as high as the 20s throughout the summer. Then a couple run-ins he had with local media, and some gruff statements on his part, brought the race back into competitive territory.

But the very latest poll gives LePage a somewhat comfortable lead of 5 points. From Pan-Atlantic (via DownEast.com):

A new poll conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS shows a close race between Libby Mitchell and Paul LePage. LePage is ahead with 32.9% of the vote and Mitchell is slightly behind with 28%. Independent Eliot Cutler comes in at third place with 14%, Shawn Moody is at 4.6% and Kevin Scott garners just .4% of the vote, with 20.2% of those surveyed still undecided.

ME libertarian Republican, fmr. state legislator and RLC State Co-Chair Stravos Mendros sees this as good news. Pan-Atlantic he says "is a liberal firm" biased towards Libby. So his margin is probably much higher?

Matthew Gagnon, a libertarian Republican, and editor of the influential blog PineTree Politics, notes that this indicates the race has "stabilized."

But after a series of polls put the race at “dead even”, we have seen a stabilization of the race. After a somewhat flawed Critical Insights poll showed LePage losing to Mitchell for the first time, our own poll in partnership with MECPO showed LePage with a small lead. After that time, three successive polls have shown LePage regaining a decent chunk of his lost momentum – Critical Insights had him up six points, Rasmussen had him up three, and just today, Pan Atlantic showed LePage with roughly a five point edge.

So in short, LePage has lost his once commanding lead, but seems to have scrapped his way back into a comfortable – if tenuous – advantage.

Sidenote: It appears increasingly likely that a number of libertarian Republicans will win election to the Maine State Legislature.

Reporting from Maine...