by Clifford F. Thies, Senior Editor

Since we last commented, there have been no major changes in GOP prospects. This is good news because the Democrats have now shifted into high gear in terms of their campaigning and have not had much effect in moving the numbers. The White House is now talking about how the Republicans in Congress will have to work with the President.

Republican chances in the House are firming up. Polling data is flooding-in showing Democrats in trouble all over the place. Money is being hoarded by the Democrats to protect their leadership in the House and to set up a “firewall” in the Senate. We stand by our forecast of a 60 to 80 seat pick-up.

As for now outlook 50/50 tie in the Senate

In the Senate, The Republicans are on line to pick-up 6 seats (AR, CO, IN, ND, PA and WI) and not lose any. They need a net pick-up of 9 for a tie and 10 for a majority in the Senate. What was impossible earlier this year is now a 50-50 proposition. As for the “4 Aces + 1 Joker” that will decide the matter:

NEVADA - In the more credible Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls, Angle is slightly ahead and knocking on the door of Mr. 50 Percent.

WASHINGTON - The more credible Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls show this to be a 1 point race one way or a 3 point race the other way. This is consistent with the results of the jungle primary, a very reliable indicator. Some less credible polls show a substantial lead for Sen. Murray, but nobody should buy it.

WEST VIRGINIA – The most recent Rasmussen poll puts Raese slightly ahead. Two others, not as credible, put the race as even or give an equally slight advantage to Gov. Manchin. With each of these three races, the races are close and there are very few undecideds. The final result may come down to turnout.

ILLINOIS – Four recent polls show the difference in this race to be 1 or 2 points. But, neither candidate is in the mid 40s. This race is wide open. This one could break either way or stay close though election day. My hunch is that, since this state is strongly Democrat, "undecideds" will break toward the Republican.

Carly's threat to Dem Majority no Joke

The Joker in the deck appears to be California. Why is this? If Carly Fiorina is within 3 points going into election day, she will be in a good position to win because of the news of Republicans victories from the eastern and middle states of the country depressing Democratic turnout on the west coast (which could make a difference in OR and WA, and also in HI).

As of yet, we have no indication that the Democrats are pulling the plug on PA, even though they have a non-incumbent and are close to, if not 10 point down. DE appears to be a goner. Conversely, the Republicans feel good enough about FL to shift money from there to pick-up opportunities. Several polls show O’Donnell 15 or more points down. In AK, Joe Miller is in a tough race with Lisa Murkowski, who has pre announced that she will caucus with the Republicans if re-elected. This means Joe will have to win a second GOP "primary," this one for all the marbles, with the NRSC being neutral..