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Politics

By MATT LATIMER

August 08, 2017

Its easy these days to disparage President Donald Trumps instinctshow, after all, could he get rid of The Mooch, easily the best character on his reality TV show? But there is one thing the president was right about from the start: The Republican Party probably should have left Obamacare repeal well enough alone. At least, that is, until the party had gotten its act together.

When the president decided to go against his instincts and support Obamacare repeal, he was thinking undoubtedly what pretty much everyone who didnt live and work in Washington, D.C., thought: that members of Congress did have their act together. That those who voted over and over again to repeal Obamacare in meaningless show votes would actually repeal it when they had their first real chance. That a party vowing to swiftly enact a plan to replace Obamacare once in full control of Congress would have an actual replacement plan in mind. That when an ailing Senator John McCain was flown in to cast a decisive vote on the bill, the decision would have worked in Republicans favor instead of leaving them at the receiving end of a bracing censure. Or that when Senator Lisa Murkowski voted in favor of allowing debate on Obamacare repeal and replacement, she wouldnt then vote no on every method to accomplish it. Who is running strategy now? Jamie Lannister.

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And yet, ironically, the GOPs complete, even historic, ineptitude has managed to work in the partys favoras the president might saybig league. Quite unbelievably, the party has an opportunity to emerge in a better position from this mess. Of course, its hard to argue that a GOP-led Congress, currently with an approval rating even lower than that of O.J. Ive lived a conflict-free life Simpson, can do much worse.

First, lets give the president his due: From the earliest days of the administration, perhaps sensing Washingtons love affair with inertia, Trump called for letting Obamacare fail on its own. One might strongly disagree with various methods that might lead to this failuresuch as refusing to shore up wobbling health care marketsbut his point, from a political perspective at least, was valid. If the federal government is to enact something as sweeping and controversial as a total rewrite of Americas health care policy, a sense of national crisis is essential. Over the past few months, the crisis mentality worked against the Republicansbecause Americans were convinced that the crisis was Republicans trying to take away something theyve been given (such as one of Obamacares most popular provisionsprotection for pre-existing conditions). Voters tend not to like losing things they think theyve gained. This explains in part why Obamacare, which has dragged down the Democratic Party through multiple election cycles, is suddenly more popular than ever.

Yet it is astonishing how determined Republicans seem to have been to replicate the very process that led to Obamacares enactment in the first place. For the past several election cycles, the consistent GOP complaint, after all, was that the villainous Obamacare was a rushed law, cobbled together in secret and passed without a single vote from the other party. If anything, this years Republican effort was more rushed, more secret and far less popular. According to one congressional historian, Trumpcare, as the House plan was called, was the most unpopular bill contemplated by Congress in at least three decades (and there were some doozies over that period, let me remind you.)

Indeed, the Republicans missed the most important lesson of Obamacare: Because the law passed without a single Republican vote in the House or the Senate, all of Obamacares miscues or early, inevitable missteps fell on one party. And one party alone. At least one study, and there are others, found that those Democrats who voted for Obamacares passage lost an average of about 6 points in polls, costing Democrats 66 House seats in 2010 alone.

Had Congress actually passed an Obamacare replacement law, with a bare majority of votes, loved by nearly no one, endlessly assailed by the new media, its consequences would be the GOPs to bear. And unless the health care of Americans vastly improved, premiums magically went down, and editorial writers across the country suddenly proclaimed they had been wrong and that Trumpcare was the elixir we needed after all, the GOP would pay an ugly price. When Obamacare was passed, Republicans warned about death panels determining whether patients lived or died. If Trumpcare had passed, the death panels could have been applied to their own political future. Having escaped that fate by the thinnest of margins, the GOP now has an opportunity to turn things around. How would they do this? Through an approach that has become increasingly un-Washingtonlike in recent years: focusing on what that people actually want and, heres the real surprise, giving it to them.

So what does the GOP do now?

First, the Republican Congress can show Americans that it knows how to run a railroad, so to speak, by actually fixing railroads. And bridges. And highways. Oh, and the tax code. You know, things that are popular, needed, and just might get at least a handful of the Democrats to pick up a phone call from the White House every once in a while.

Second, if elected Republicans truly want to enact a massive rewrite of the health care system (and lets be honest, many dont), then they need to wait for a new health care crisis to develop. This will come. And soon. Americas health care system, as it is currently structured, is unsustainable. Premiums will continue to rise. Insurers will continue to shut down operations in various locales. There will continue to be complaints and horror stories from governors and mayors about the toll being taken on their communities. Only when there is a mass consensus that something sweeping needs to be done to fix the system will Congress find the fortitude to act. And at that point, you might at least get help from a Democrat or two. If Obamacare taught anything to anyone in Washingtona city allergic to lessonsbipartisan buy-in, no matter how minimal, is crucial.

Until then, Obamacare is more secure than ever. That, ironically, may turn out to be the biggest legacy of the largest Republican congressional majority in nearly 90 years. If they dont start getting something meaningful accomplished soon, it may be their only legacy.

Matt Latimer is a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. He is currently a co-partner in Javelin, a literary agency and communications firm based in Alexandria, andcontributing editor at Politico Magazine.

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The GOP's Monstrous Health Care Fail Might Just Have Saved the Party - POLITICO Magazine