A 509th Bomb Wing B-2 Spirit conducts a fly-by during the Scott Air Force Base 2017 Air Show and Open House June 11, which celebrates the bases 100th anniversary. The Air Force plans to replace the B-2 Spirit bomber with the similar-looking B-21 Raider bomber starting in the mid 2020s. Credit: U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Airman Tristin English

The U.S. Air Forces future B-21 Raider bomber may havethe option to remove the human pilots from the cockpit and effectively becomea large drone bomber. In one of the more unlikely scenarios,B-21 Raiders could theoretically end upcarrying nuclear bombs or missiles without a human pilot onboard. That seems like an extremely remote possibility given the U.S. Air Forces current views, but other countries may not hesitate as much to turn uninhabited aircraft into nuclear drone bombers, according to a new report.

Nobody in the U.S. defense community seems to be pushing nuclear drone bombers as a great idea, saysPaul Scharre, project director for the 20YY Warfare Initiative at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).But Scharre and his colleagues still recommend that the Pentagon examine the possible implications of nuclear drone bombers in their recentreport titledDrone Proliferation: Policy Choices for the Trump Administration. After all, other countries that havenuclear weapons may also have a different risk calculus in mind when considering the idea of putting nuclear weapons aboard drones.

Given that countries are getting access to larger drones that can operate with larger payloads, and some of those countries have nuclear weapons, how should we be reacting?says Paul Scharre, project director for the 20YY Warfare Initiative at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). It hasnt gotten much attention in the U.S. defense community because its considered a crazy idea, but other countries may think about this quite differently.

Russia is one example of a country that may have a different mindset.In 2012, a Russian Air Force lieutenant general suggested that Russia could deploy an uninhabited nuclear bomber by the 2040s.There is some precedent for Russias having greater comfort in handingnuclear weapons over to robotic systems, given its reliance on aDead Hand system (also calledPerimeter) that ensures automatic nuclear launches and retaliation against the United States if the U.S. military was ever to destroy the Russian leadership and command and control centers.

Unlike nuclear-armed cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, an uninhabited nuclear bomber could potentially end up on patrol in a holding pattern during a crisis situation. Such a delicate situation would require the drone nuclear bomber to have extremely trustworthyonboard autonomyand reliable communications with its remote human handlers, so that humans could ensure that they retain control over its nuclear payload. That complication of command and control is just one factor that the U.S. military might want to study, even if its simply to prepare for the possible complications of another country deploying nuclear drone bombers.

The U.S. military has been careful to keep a human in the loop for itsnuclear triad system that can deploy nuclear weapons from land-based missile silos, from stealthy submarines hidden under the sea, and from an aging fleet of 66 nuclear-capable strategic bombers in the air.That nuclear triad will receive a much-needed upgrade to the air arm when the B-21 Raiders begin becoming operational in the mid 2020s and begin replacing B-52 and B-2 bombers that havetypically already been in military service for more than45 years.

Its fine to keep human pilots aboard nuclear-armed strategic bombers as long as they have the stealth or other capabilities to survive their missions. But many nuclear-armed countries lack the ability to build sophisticated, long-range bombers that can survive the gauntlet of enemy air defenses and deliver nuclear bombs or missiles to their targets half a world away, Scharre says. One or more of those countries may see dronesas nuclear delivery vehicles that have some tactical advantages in future wars.

When you look at North Korea, Pakistan and India, those countries are in very different strategic positions in terms of vulnerability compared with the United States, Scharre says. Just because its not a great idea in a U.S. system doesnt mean others dont think about it that way.

Read the original here:

Report Tells Pentagon to Beware Nuclear Drone Bombers ... - Discover Magazine (blog)