by Clifford F. Thies

The strong showing by the leader of Great Britain's Liberal Democrat Party, Nick Clegg, in the first ever televised debate among party leaders in that country has scrambled election forecasts.

Going into the debate, the Conservatives, lead by David Cameron (photo), were solidly in first place, with a lead in the popular vote ranging from the high single-digits to the low double-digits over Labour, lead by Prime Minister Gordon Brown; and, projected to win something close to, if not an absolute majority of seats in Parliament. The biggest uncertainty seemed to be how particular districts would fall, whether to the Tories versus Labour, or to the Lib-Dems versus the Scottish Nationalists, or any number of other permutations. Now, the biggest uncertainty appears to be whether the Lib-Dems will overtake Labour in the popular vote, with the outcome in terms of seats much more fluid because of the number of competitive districts in which there are three or more strong parties. The old rule of thumb, that 40 percent in the popular vote results in a majority in Parliament might not work in this election.

In the British (and Canadian) system of elections, the members of the governing chamber of parliament are elected from "winner-take-all" elections, with the government formed by the party (or, by a coalition of parties) winning the most seats. This format practically invites minor parties with appeal in certain regions. In Canada, there is, for example, the Quebec nationalist party and, in Great Britain, the Scottish nationalist party.

In addition to the regional dynamic, the left in Great Britain, as in several other countries, is fracturing, with significant numbers defecting to green parties and with the far-left impatient with the center-left. In Great Britain, Tony Blair's re-casting of Labour as a neo-liberal party enabled the party to string together a series of majorities in Parliament. But, it looks as though this re-positioning of Labour will come undone with the surge of the Lib-Dems in this year's election. Labour, in Great Britain, may come out of this year's election in a position similar to that of the New Democrats in Canada, a minor party that is competitive in only selected districts.