This from Reuters this morning: Using data back to 1928, the S&P 500 has suffered a 10% or more collapse in a single week, 16 times. On average, over the next week, the index has enjoyed a 4.3% snapback. Looking forward 6 and 12 weeks from a week the SPX closed down 10% or more, on average the index was only up 1.5% and 3.9%, or less than the average week-1 snap-back.

And this is what I would expect from this bounce. A sharp rebound with all the buyers holding their fingers crossed behind their backs. There is no science here, the market isnt cheap, the value isnt obvious and the certainty of any buying is non-existent. It may be right it may be wrong, but dont think for a moment that the market is safe. It is not.

We are not buying into the bounce - we are thinking of selling into it but havent yet lets just see how it unfolds.

Having said that, for those of you who do want to buy a trade, here are some numbers and the best buying ideas for a snap back. I have broken the list into the TOP 50 by market cap and the NEXT 50. The tables show:

I have colour coded a few stocks:

Observations - If you believe this is the bottom then here are some of the stocks that will snap back - some of the obvious ideas are in red:

There are a lot of other stocks in the top 50 shown below mostly banks, REITs, infrastructure, utilities, gold - stocks that are probably not on the buy for a bounce list. Most of them have outperformed in the fall and are not your obvious go to trades.

TOP 50

NEXT 50

WORST OF THE REST

Some interesting growth stocks in here:

OVER AND UNDERVALUED

Here are some MARCUS TODAY laymans language EVALUATION TABLES of the above mentioned most obvious 'buy for a bounce' stock ideas - come a more relaxed market this would make a good portfolio - but not if we are on leg one of a bear market and seeing a dead cat bounce:

The table above is based on these numbers and the key below:

Key:

Marcus Padley is the author of the Marcus Today stock market newsletter. To sign up for a 14-day free trial please click here.

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Anatomy of the bounce - Marcus Padley - Livewire Markets