When will this covid-19 pandemic end? No one can know for certain, but one public health expert, Dr. David Katz, said last week that well enter a new phase with far fewer cases in "something like another four to eight weeks." Meanwhile, the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences has been rethinking its own projections based on what were learning about the disease.

Lets start with Katzs encouraging analysis. Hes the founding director of Yale Universitys Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center and was director of medical studies in public health at the Yale School of Medicine.

In an interview with radio host Michael Smerconish Aug. 4 and in an article on his own LinkedIn page, Katz said were much closer to the end than it might seem. Thats because new research is suggesting that the actual number of Americans who have been infected with the virus is 10 times the 5 million who have tested positive. Moreover, research is suggesting that 20-50% of Americans may have partial immunity gained from past infections to other coronaviruses, including the common cold. Some people fight the disease off without producing measurable antibodies.

In other words, we may be at the point where 80% of the population already has some protection from the disease, though its not evenly spread across the United States. He says thats more than enough for herd immunity, which is when enough people are immune that the virus stops spreading. He doesnt expect a second wave because the first wave never ended.

In the meantime, Katz advises people to wear masks and to continue to keep their distance because a large "dose" of the virus can be more dangerous than a small one.

"I think we continue to take precautions, but Im quite hopeful that the end of this tunnel is not that far away," he said during the interview.

Katz said the United States response to the pandemic has been haphazard, and testing has been inadequate. He also believes strategies should have been "risk stratified" with a focus on the vulnerable, and should be moving forward. We know, for example, that the disease is often fatal to older people, but as of Saturday no Arkansans under age 25 had died from it.

Katz noted that, after age, health has been a major predictor of how a person responds to the disease. A healthy lifestyle does not guarantee a good outcome, but it certainly helps, and its something we can control. Now is the time to get healthy because it will protect us against COVID-19 and also offer long-term benefits, he said.

Katz emphasized that he could be wrong about his projections about the pandemics end. Im writing about him because he offers a credible and hopeful alternative viewpoint that also doesnt deny the pandemics seriousness. If youre looking for some encouraging news, read his LinkedIn article and listen to his roughly 18-minute interview with Smerconish.

Meanwhile, the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences College of Public Health has been reassessing its predictions about the pandemic.

Previous projections have been discouraging if not frightening. The July 17 biweekly report by the College of Public Health faculty said the pandemic would peak in Arkansas on Nov. 26, when 2,591 Arkansans would be hospitalized and 543 would be on ventilators.

That would be terrible. By comparison, 508 Arkansans were hospitalized and 117 were on ventilators on Aug. 10.

But the writers of the biweekly report dated July 30 decided not to make long-term projections because of new research about the disease. The report said the number of asymptomatic cases is 10 to 20 times higher than previously thought, which would bolster Katzs case. The bad news is that children may be more infectious than previously thought. Thats an ominous piece of news as schools prepare to reopen.

Almost none of us were infectious disease experts when this started, and were still not. Im giving extra weight to Dr. Katzs projections because they make sense, because I want to believe him, and because he offers an evidence-based timeline for when this might end. It helps to have a goal. So in the Brawner household, well continue to take precautions like he said to do, while hoping the end of the tunnel is near and knowing it might not be.

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.

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When will the pandemic end? Soon, says one expert - Greenwood Democrat