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Autism rates continue to rise, according to a new government survey, but the skyrocketing figures dont necessarily mean the disorder is increasing.

According to the latest estimate, released on Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 1 in 88 children in the U.S. has an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) a nearly 25% increase from 2006, when the rate was 1 in 110, and a stunning 78% increase since 200002, when the CDC first began tracking the disorder and estimated the rate at 1 in 150 children.

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Much of the surge, experts acknowledge, may be due to better diagnosis, wider awareness and broader definitions of autism. Autism used to be diagnosed only in children with severe language and social problems and repetitive behaviors, but several years ago, researchers expanded the criteria for diagnosis to also include autism spectrum disorders a wider range of developmental conditions associated with autism. These conditions include Aspergers syndrome, which describes children who are high functioning but exhibit milder symptoms of social impairment or learning problems, and pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS), a diagnosis that is easier to get.

Greater awareness of autism by parents, doctors and school administrators, along with a growing push to help all affected children learn and socialize, may also be fueling the uptick. Doctors have gotten better at diagnosing the condition, and communities have gotten better at providing services for those affected by autism, Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the CDC, told reporters in a conference call. At this point, I think its a possibility that the increase in identification of autism is entirely the result of better detection. We dont know whether or not that is the case, but it is a possibility.

Mark Roithmayr, president of Autism Speaks, an autism research and advocacy group, concedes that such factors may figure into the swelling of cases but argues that they likely account for only about half the increase. Only part of the increase can be explained by better and broader diagnoses, he said on the same call. There is a great unknown. Something is going on here, and we dont know.

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The latest CDC numbers come from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, a comprehensive program covering 14 states, in which trained reviewers examine medical and school records of 8-year-olds for descriptions or diagnoses of autism or ASDs.

Tracking the prevalence of autism has always been controversial, and experts still cant agree on exactly how common the disorder is, since its definition continues to shift. The rate may drop again by years end, when a new definition of autism is slated to be included in the fifth revision of the standard manual for mental illness, the DSM-V; the updated definition is expected to focus more exclusively on core autism cases and exclude Aspergers and PDD-NOS, which a growing number of experts believe to be distinct from true autism. The current CDC analysis did not break down ASD diagnoses by subtype.

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Autism: More Kids than Ever Are Diagnosed, but Is the Increase Real?