Researchers at the University of Texas say hospitals in the Austin-Round Rock area will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases unless the community takes action to drastically reduce person-to-person contact.

In the report released Thursday, lead author and UT professor Lauren Ancel Meyers presented a number of scenarios based on the assumed rate of transmission and the severity of the coronavirus for different age groups. Meyers, a professor of integrative biology and statistics and data sciences, found the number of cases in the Austin-Round Rock area doubles about every four days. The report also found each infected person passes the virus on to 2.2 others, and about 1 in 20 people who contract the coronavirus in the area will be hospitalized.

Meyers emphasized much of the data is still preliminary.

"There is still much we do not understand about the transmission dynamics of this virus, including the extent of asymptomatic infection and transmission. We update our model inputs on a daily basis, as our understanding of the virus improves," she said.

UTs pandemic model shows that reducing daily contacts in the community by 50% or 75% may not be sufficient to prevent an unmanageable surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Caldwell and Hays counties. Even if the community reduces contacts by 75%, researchers predict more than 18,000 people will need hospitalization. The estimated total daily hospital capacity in the area is about 4,000 beds, according to the report.

In order to ensure the Austin-Round Rock area has enough hospital beds, ventilators and other resources, the community must reduce daily contacts with people by 90%, projections suggest.

The report was shared with Austin city leaders earlier this week, researchers said. On Thursday, coronavirus cases rose to 137 in Travis County, with 27 cases being reported in Williamson County and 13 in Hays County. Gov. Greg Abbott said Thursday 1,424 people in Texas have tested positive for the virus, including family members of UT President Gregory L. Fenves and the UT dean of undergraduate studies.

Travis and Williamson counties issued shelter-in-place orders this week, restricting residents from leaving their homes, except for necessary errands like medicine, groceries and individual physical exercise. But Meyers and Clay Johnston, dean of the Dell Medical School, say its hard to understand just how effective those measures are. On Wednesday, for instance, dozens of Austinites were seen gathered on the shores of Barton Creek, despite a mandate from city and county officials to stay home.

"Its not just policies, its attitudes," Johnston said. "Its all of us being concerned, even before the mayor and county judge change rules about the number of social contacts."

While theres no definite way of tracking peoples social contacts, data analysts at the business strategy company Unacast have attempted to analyze Americans travel habits by creating a social distancing scoreboard, which calculates the average distance a person travels by tracking cell phone activity.

According to the analysis, Texans have reduced their travel distances by nearly 40% since the start of March. But Johnston said such a model could underestimate the impact of social distancing policies like a shelter-in-place mandate, because they dont account for isolated travel, like walking the dog or going for a run.

Still, Meyers and Johnston said the impact of social distancing on reducing the transmission of COVID-19 is immediate.

"As soon as we stop coming in contact with each other, we are preventing infected people from in contact with people who could become infected," Meyers said.

Area hospitals have already begun making room for the anticipated onslaught of coronavirus cases, and are identifying possibilities for surge capacity, such as converting clinic spaces or unused parts of the building to treat more patients, Johnston said. If hospitals run out of space, they may look to places like the Austin Convention Center, the Frank Erwin Center, or other large public buildings to set up treatment centers, he said.

"We are preparing for the worst and hoping thats unnecessary," Johnston said. "But it all depends on the behavior today of the public."

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COVID-19 will overwhelm Austin-area hospitals unless social contact is drastically cut, UT researchers say - Austin American-Statesman