Trump and Vances America first: hawkish on China, more flexible on Russia – South China Morning Post

But the pairs stance concerning Russias war on Ukraine underscores the growing rift with others in the party who still push for a more active stance to counter Moscows aggression.

Trump referred to the war a handful of times in his roughly 90-minute acceptance speech Thursday night, but said little beyond claiming that, had he been president in 2022 when Russia first invaded, it would not have occurred.

No fan of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Trump has argued that European members of the alliance must take their defence more into their own hands. And while not coming out in full opposition to Ukraine, he has been a consistent sceptic on increased aid to Kyiv.

In his address, Trump repeatedly referred to the Republican Party platform, which contains a commitment to strengthen alliances without mentioning either Russia or Ukraine.

But in keeping with his long-standing opposition to Ukraine aid, he questioned its effectiveness in an interview with Fox News on Monday. What are we trying to accomplish? Is there a risk of escalation to nuclear war?

But according to analysts, Trumps pick of Vance on the first day of the convention reasserted his rejection of the neoconservative position that the US should engage militarily worldwide, especially in defence of democracies.

In appointing Vance, Trump is looking to make changes to US foreign policy and to bolster the part of the party that has rejected neoconservatism and takes the America first, Asia first approach, said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Wertheim said that it was likely Trump would be influenced by the partys Asia First contingent, which includes Elbridge Colby, his former deputy assistant secretary of defence for strategy and force development.

The Trump administration, which ran from 2017 to 2021, was widely credited for defining China as a strategic competitor a posture adopted by the succeeding administration of US President Joe Biden and Wertheim said that thrust would continue.

On Europe, Wertheim sees more room to change the current trajectory.

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Unlike in 2016, there is now a set of policy experts who have formulated various ways to reduce the US military commitment to Europe, and Trump is clearly interested in those possibilities, he said.

The conversation has shifted from burden-sharing to burden-shifting, he continued, adding that directing resources to deal with China was part of that move.

Though Trump and Vance said relatively little about foreign policy in their addresses, some observers said that the conventions speaker list was telling.

Many invitees which included Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, economist Peter Navarro and tech chief executive David Sacks either opposed increased aid to Ukraine or favoured greater oversight of that aid.

Trump and Vances scepticism about the need to support Ukraines efforts also runs counter to other Republicans like Matthew Pottinger, Trumps top White House adviser on Asia during his administration, who has lately been sounding alarms about Chinas closer integration with Russia.

Washington, he argued, does not have the option to adopt strong measures against one and not the other.

Its going to be a lot cheaper for us to deter in multiple theatres simultaneously, than to deter really well in one theatre but accept major military defeats in other areas because its the same enemy, Pottinger said in a discussion this month at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

During the event, Pottinger cited the assessment by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Beijing is overwhelmingly the No 1 supporter of Russias war in Europe.

He then noted the US$60 trillion democratic alliance that includes Nato, Japan, South Korea and Australia, which he said should be capable of subduing the combined economic output of the axis of chaos countries led by China and Russia.

Despite his inclination to be soft on Russia, analysts say that Trump might still take action against China for its links to Russias industrial base.

But if so, Trump may only keep it up until Beijing is brought to the negotiating table, said James Mann, a senior fellow at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

This was true in his first term too. You could see him taking actions that are tough and bragging that he was taking strong action, and then, much more quietly, looking for deals, Mann said.

Trump hinted at his willingness to use trade as a weapon on Thursday night, when he cited his phase one trade deal with Beijing in 2020.

He has always seen himself as a negotiator and a deal maker, Mann said.

Additional reporting by Robert Delaney

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Trump and Vances America first: hawkish on China, more flexible on Russia - South China Morning Post

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